CC BY
1IMPACTS OF NATIONAL TARGETS FOR THE TRANSITION TO RENEWABLE
ENERGY: A CASE OF UZBEKISTAN Surayyo Kushbakova
The University of World Economy and Diplomacy, Department of International Economy, Mustakillik 54, 100007 Tashkent Uzbekistan, e-mail: s.kushbakova@gmail.com
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10720958
Abstract. This paper investigates the effect of national targets for transition to renewable energy of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the three ways. First, it develops a new review model for assessing the targets for renewable energy in Uzbekistan. Second, it offers update and expand the answers how to work on targets in Uzbekistan. Third, taking into account international best practices, it identifies the obstacles and solutions to attracting investment in renewable energy in the country. The main finding is when the government national targets do not work properly the investment in RE would be reduced and its impacts to the negative development on green economy.
Key words: renewable energy, national targets, carbon reduction, subsidy, investment
Annotasiya. Ushbu maqolada O 'zbekiston Respublikasining qayta tiklanadigan energiya manbalariga o 'tish bo 'yicha milliy maqsadlarning ta 'siri uch yo 'nalishda o 'rganilgan. Birinchidan, O'zbekistonda qayta tiklanadigan energiya bo'yicha maqsadlarni baholashning yangi sharh modelini ishlab chiqilgan. Ikkinchidan, u O 'zbekistonda qanday maqsadlarda ishlash bo 'yicha savoliga javoblarni yangilash va kengaytirishni taklif qilinadi. Uchinchidan, ilg'or xalqaro tajribalarni inobatga olgan holda, mamlakatda qayta tiklanadigan energiya manbalariga sarmoya jalb etishdagi to'siqlar va ularni hal etish yo'llarini belgilab bergan. Asosiy xulosa shundan iboratki, agar hukumat milliy maqsadlari to'g'ri ishlamasa, qayta tiklanadigan energiyagaga investitsiyalar kamayadi va uning yashil iqtisodiyotga bo 'lgan salbiy ta'sirini namayon etadi.
Kalit so 'zlar: qayta tiklanadigan energiya, milliy maqsadlar, uglerod gazini kamaytirish, subsidiyalar, investitsiyalar
Аннотация. В данной статье исследуется влияние национальных целей по переходу к возобновляемым источникам энергии Республики Узбекистан по трем направлениям. Во-первых, он разрабатывает новую модель обзора для оценки целей развития возобновляемой энергетики в Узбекистане. Во-вторых, предлагается обновить и расширить ответы на вопросы о том, как работать над целевыми показателями в Узбекистане. В-третьих, с учетом передового мирового опыта определены препятствия и пути решения для привлечения инвестиций в возобновляемую энергетику в стране. Главный вывод заключается в том, что когда национальные цели правительства не работают должным образом, инвестиции в возобновляемую энергию будут сокращены, и это повлияет на негативное развитие «зеленой» экономики.
Ключевые слова: возобновляемая энергетика, национальные цели, сокращение выбросов углекислого газа, субсидии, инвестиции.
1. Introduction
The energy transition generation of renewables in Uzbekistan is going gradually developed year by year. To achieve Uzbekistan's target of 40% share of RE in energy sector by 2030, the country would need to invest in renewable every year to gain this aim. However, Uzbekistan began to sign agreements from different companies that construct the PV panels' plants and wind turbine station annually from 2021 to 2023. Through the national targets -share of renewable energy,
carbon emission reduction, and legislation of renewable energy - this study examines why the country's renewable energy sector has not attracted more capital. The contribution of the article consist
of three parts of analysis concerning to attractiveness of business climate for renewable
energy.
2. Methods
According to analyzed previous scholars research we draw our methodological [1][2][3]. First of all, we organize a review model by figure (see Fig.1). Then, using this model, we do research Uzbekistan's targets concerning to develop renewable energy from between 2016 to 2023. Additionally, we detailed every aspect to give more information regarding to the aspects.
Targets for transition to RE
the share of RE
Carbon emissionn reduction
Legislation of RE
Uzbekistan-2030 strategy
Paris agreement
Database of legislation frameworks
Fig. 1 Review model of targets on Renewable Energy
Each targets directed to the significant indicators which refer attract the investments of Renewable energy sources projects. Therefore, every country designed its own national targets to increase the field of "green economy". The targets are given above reveals the aims of the Republic of Uzbekistan regarding the growth of energy sector.
To analyze the share of RE in Uzbekistan, we use the Decrees and speeches of the President Shavkat Mirziyayev [4] [5]. According to carbon emission reduction goal, in 2018, Uzbekistan ratified the Paris Agreement and adopted a national commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP by 10% of the 2010 level by 2030 [6]. Moreover, this type of goal included the last of Decrees and frameworks of the country's'. We also review the regulatory frameworks, legal and policy documents, and reports of the country. First, we assess the adoption and enforcement of renewable energy legislation and best policy practices, including regulatory policies, fiscal incentives, and public financing mechanisms. After exploring reviews of targets we assessing the tendency of each targets. In reviews of renewable energy targets we examine the main issues of the country: carbon emissions reduction, energy legislation and share of renewables in long run term. Finally, we consider this investigation refer to transition RES.
3. Results and Discussion
Subsequently, in 2022, the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan approved the Decree No. PF-60 "New Uzbekistan development strategy for 2022-2026" [7]. According to the decree the efficiency of using energy has to increase 20% by 2026. The country put the aims to develop "green economy" by increase renewable energy projects, using EV cars, reconstructing
infrastructure energy sector which remained Soviet Union and utilities. However, currently the efficiency of the energy is not significance that expected the government. The population of the country is increased year by year and lead among the Central Asian countries. Additionally, electricity and hydropower stations take a long run term to update in which had been constructed 70-50 year before[8]. On the other hand, Uzbekistan in a short time achieved to attract foreign investors in solar and wind energy projects. Solar PV and wind energy projects are increased rapidly. (see Fig. 2) By 2024, the construction of wind energy station will be given for exploitation as well. The Presidential Decree No. PF-158, 2023, September 11, "Uzbekistan-2030", in goal 51, the share of renewable energy will reach 40% by 2030 [4]. The eve of the end of the year 2023, December 27, the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyayev addressed at the ceremony joint projects in the field of green economy. He emphasized that the next six years demand of electricity would be increased from 83 billion to 120 billion kilowatt hours that leading to cover through renewable energy and its active investment policy to increase the capacity of green energy sources to 27 gigawatts by 2030[5].
Fig. 2 Per capita electricity generation from solar and wind, 2016 to 2022[9]
After ratification Paris Agreement in 2018 [6], the country has faced problems regarding with air pollutions (because of subsidy for fossil fuel and projects for renewables increase slowly the last five years), CO2 and other ecological problems (such as, sorting the rubbish, deficit of water, energy producing stations which works without filters etc,.). But the problem of emissions from fossil fuel almost unchanged for twenty years. (see Fig.3) There are many solutions to reduce GHG emissions from world experience: levy taxes for externalities, trade by auctions and others. In order to reduce air pollution, the volume of greenhouse gases from industrial enterprises is to be auctioned for sale to large producers. Adoption of this mechanism gives a significant result of the future environment of Uzbekistan.
Fig. 3 Per capita CO2 emissions (Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel and industry) [10]
The last target gives hierarchical legislation on renewable energy sector of the Republic of Uzbekistan that reveal how governance reform. By 2023, Uzbekistan had adopted renewable energy regulations based on best practices in other parts of the world. Extensive information on renewable energy legislation is provided by international organizations. One reason Uzbekistan has adopted forward-looking renewable energy legislation and policies are that receive assistance from international organizations and donors, which often provide advice and help in designing regulatory measures such as, the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank, and others.
Law of the Republic of Uzbekistan
Decision of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan
Fig. 4 Diagram of the legislative base of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the field of RES
The studying of targets the Republic of Uzbekistan we can say that, some obstacles of the country to develop RE sector. For instance, in the country, subsidies for fossil fuel are very high indicator and covered expenses to the consumer's utilities. This issue decreased the consumers (especially who have own house with roof) demand and attractiveness of investors as well. Moreover, transformation to the green economy would be unchanged and its effects give negative results.
2%
0%-,-1-1-1-1
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fig. 5 Fossil-fuel subsidies as a share of GDP, 2016-2021[11]
The subsidy for fossil-fuel reduce budget expenditure which can be expenses for prosperity other field infrastructure, such as, medicine, education, railroad construction etc,. 4. Conclusion
Based on our analysis, we propose three target directions should work properly to reach the prosperity of the country in the field of RE.
First, the country could continue to adopt best-practice policies and incentives—and put them into practice. In particular, they need to strengthen their practical experience of managing tenders, feed-in tariffs, and auctions. Renewable Portfolio Standards can also change the position and status of the country and push to develop of the prosperity investment conditions for renewables. Second, Uzbekistan could reduce subsidy share for fossil fuel by increase the market electricity price step by step to transit to renewables. This indicator shows the lowest level attraction of investment for renewable as well. Therefore, government should refuse subsidies for fossil fuel gradually.
REFERENCES
1. F. Polzin, M. Migendt, F. A. Täube, and P. von Flotow, "Public policy influence on renewable energy investments-A panel data study across OECD countries," Energy Policy, vol. 80, pp. 98-111, 2015, doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.01.026.
2. R. Vakulchuk, K. K. Hlaing, E. Z. Naing, I. Overland, B. Suryadi, and S. Velautham, "Myanmar's Attractiveness for Investment in the Energy Sector: A Comparative International Perspective," SSRNElectron. J., 2018, doi: 10.2139/ssrn.3023133.
3. R. Vakulchuk, I. Overland, and B. Suryadi, "ASEAN's energy transition: how to attract more investment in renewable energy," Energy, Ecol. Environ., vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 1-16, 2023, doi:
10.1007/s40974-022-00261 -6.
4. "Uzbekistan-2030", [Online]. Available: https://lex.uz/docs/-6600413
5. "Address by the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev", [Online]. Available: https://president.uz/en/lists/view/6952
6. IRENA, "Uzbekistan Energy Profile," 2021, [Online]. Available: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/8c1cefe6-4c29-46b0-82fa-c524714e54a5/UzbekistanEnergyProfile.pdf
7. "New Uzbekistan development stratagy for 2022-2026." https://lex.uz/docs/-5841063
8. F. Aminjonov, "Renewable Energy Sources in Central Asia: What Should Be On The Agenda Now?," no. September, 2020.
9. E.-E. E. R. (2022); E. I.-S. R. of W. E. (2023); P. based on various sources (2023) - with major processing by O. W. in Data, "Ember - Yearly Electricity Data (2023)", [Online]. Available: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-electricity-generation-from-solar-and-wind?tab=chart&time=2016..latest&country=~UZB
10. OurWorldinData, "Per capita CO2 emissions", [Online]. Available: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions
11. O. for E. C. and D. and International Energy Agency and I. M. F. via U. N. G. S. Database, "Fossil-fuel subsidies as a share of GDP", [Online]. Available: https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuel-subsidies
