CC BY
13
УДК 338.43
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR RUSSIA
O. Н. Сафонова
Статья посвящена проблеме изменения климата, которая является крайне важной на глобальном и национальном уровнях. Отрицательные последствия изменения климата проявляются в России уже сейчас, особенно в аграрном секторе. Поэтому необходимо разрабатывать меры для адаптации сельскохозяйственного производства к климатическим изменениям в целях снижения агроэкологических рисков.
The article deals with the problem of climate change, which is very important at the global and national levels. The negative consequences of climate change are already in Russia, especially in the agricultural sector. Therefore it is necessary to develop measures to adapt agriculture to climate change in order to reduce the agro-ecological risks.
The problem of climate change is most pressing global problem early XXI century, which is an integrated multi-disciplinary issue, encompassing environmental, economic and social aspects of sustainable development.
Special concern is caused by the high rate of global warming observed in recent decades. Modern science provides all the more compelling reasons to prove that human activities related to greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, has a significant impact on climate.
Climate change are manifold and manifest themselves in the frequency and intensity of climate anomalies and extreme weather events. The consequences of climate change are global, regional and national levels. Expected climate change will impact on the lives of people in the state of the animal and plant life in all parts of the world, and some of them will become a tangible threat to the well-being and sustainable development [1].
The consequences of climate change appear now, including in the form of increased frequency and intensity of dangerous weather events, spread of infectious diseases. They cause considerable economic damage, threaten the stable existence of ecosystems, as well as the health and lives of people. In future, continuous climate change will lead to even more dangerous consequences if mankind does not take appropriate preventive measures. And it will affect all countries.
Russia occupies a special place in size of territory, the extent of its economic development and diversity of climatic conditions. Climate change has an ambiguous effect on the economy of Russia. It favors the development of some industries and regions. At the same time it seriously complicates the economic activities of other industries and regions, for example, in the agricultural sector.
Russia is huge country and global warming will affect it in different ways. In agriculture, everything will depend on the amount of rainfall and drought periods. In general, it is expected that the productivity of grain production in the North and Northwest regions (10 %) and fodder production - in the nonchernozem zone of Russia (25 %) will increase significantly [2]. In the whole country by 2020 it is expected that the yield of grain crops will decline by 9 % compared to 2005 levels.
Upon further warming, boundaries of growing heat-loving crops will rise to the north, and thus their area increase. Subtropical agriculture and cotton production can be developed in some southern areas.
An increase in populations of plant pests, especially aphids, grasshoppers, colorado beetle notes Among the adverse effects of climate change [3].
Insufficient moisture in many regions of Russia will not only reduce crop yields, but also to reduce the supply of water for the population.
The adverse consequences of climate change in Russia affect the observed trends of increasing severe weather events and increased adverse abrupt changes in weather, which adversely affect agriculture and lead to a huge social and economic loss.
Thus, the anomalous situation that arose in Russia this year, has led to serious consequences. Since the beginning of 2012 there was 16,240 forest fires on an area of 1 million 321 thousand hectares, which is 16 % more than in 2011. Very difficult situation developed in the Southern, Volga, Ural and Siberian regions, there was a fifth grade assigned to the fire hazard.
Due to unusually high temperatures in the 20 regions was introduced a state of emergency (Kalmykia, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Chechnya, Tuva and Khakas-sia, Altai Territory and Stavropol, Volgograd, Rostov, Orenburg, Saratov, Kurgan, Chelyabinsk, Omsk, Ulyanovsk, Tomsk, Novosibirsk , Kemerovo and Bryansk regions).
The Ministry of Agriculture has concluded that, due to adverse conditions, «the data on losses of a crop read off scale in relation to averages» [4]. The damage caused by the heat wave to farmers amounted to 43,5 billion rubles. In accordance with the materials for examination by government agriculture of the Russian Federation, 8763 affected the economy, the area of the death of 5,52 million hectares (7,3 % of the total sown area).
All 20 subjects appealed to the Government of the Russian Federation with a request for funds from the federal budget to balance the budget of the Russian Federation and the support of the affected agricultural producers.
To adapt agricultural production to climate change in order to reduce the agro-ecological risks and maintenance of food security of the country, it's necessary to change the geography of agriculture due to its promotion in fairly moist areas of the northern direction. In the non-chernozem zone and in the Far East, it should combined with the active use of reclamation activities, organic and mineral fertilizers and plant protection products on the standards adopted at the international level.
In regions with dry climate it is necessary to introduce moisture-saving technologies, to increase the proportion of winter crops, to increase crop crops resistant to drought.
An important measure of the adaptation of agriculture is the development of agricultural insurance. The government and insurance companies are discussing the possibility of introducing compulsory insurance of agricultural risks, which does not preclude the simultaneous use of its voluntary forms. But regulatory and legal framework in the insurance industry of agriculture of Russia still needs some work and improvement. Therefore, at this stage it is necessary to continue the work towards the development of legal, economic and other tools to ensure the security of the state from adverse impacts of climate change [5].
Climate change increases the risk of agricultural production and rural development in general, associated with changes in temperature and precipitation in the long run, and more frequent weather events and natural disasters in the short term.
Therefore, to achieve sustainability it is necessary to consider the possible impact of climate change on the agricultural sector. This calls for increased research to carefully study the impact of climate change on agro-ecological conditions and on this basis the formation of adaptation policies for the sustainability of agricultural production. Adaptation policies should cover the possible changes of agricultural specialization of rural communities in the Eurasian region, land use. This will require significant investment in the development of market and social infrastructure. Underestimation of climatic factors in the current agricultural and food policy can lead to large economic and social costs in the future, both at the national and global levels.
List of reference links
1. About Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation: the Order of the President of the Russian Federation of December 17, 2009 № 861-rp // Collected Legislation of the Russian Federation. - 2009. - № 51. - Art. 6305.
2. The assessment of macroeconomic effects of climate change on the territory of the Russian Federation until and beyond 2030 / ed. V. M. Kattsova, B. N. Porfir'eva. - Moscow : D'Art: Main Geophysical Observatory, 2011. - 252 p.
3. Medvedev, Y. Will we wait for global warming? / Y. Medvedev // Russian Newspaper. -29.12.2011. - Week number 5671 (295).
4. URL: http://www.mcx.ru - The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation.
5. Safonova, O. N. Development of Agricultural Sector Russia in the Context of Global Climate Change / O. N. Safonova // European-Russian Economic Relations in Times of Global Challenges: proceedings of the International Scientific Conference (Kostroma, May 19-20, 2012). - Moscow : Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, 2012. -P. 267-270.
УДК 330.101
НАЦИОНАЛЬНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА КАК СИСТЕМА: ПОНЯТИЕ, ХАРАКТЕРИСТИКИ, СОДЕРЖАНИЕ И СТРУКТУРА
А. М. Варакса
Статья посвящена разработке системы национальной экономики. Рассмотрены различные точки зрения на концепцию национальной экономики. Доказывается, что национальная экономика является системой, выделяются ее основные подсистемы: материально-организационных и общественно-организационных отношений. Дается характеристика элементов национальной экономики.
The article focuses on elements of national economic. In the article points of view to the term «national economic» are discussed. The trends in modern economic theory and its practical significance are given. It's also touches upon the basic characteristics of national economic
Термин «национальная экономика» появился в научной литературе в 1990-х гг. Актуальность ее изучения связывают в первую очередь с возрастающей необходимостью предвидеть тенденции социально-экономического развития и реализовывать эффективную стратегию посредством соответствующей экономической политики. Процессы глобализации, ведущие к
