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Влияние изменений в экономической ситуации на состояние преступности в России под
воздействием COVID-19
Impact of changes in economic situation on the state of crimes in Russia under influence of the
COVID-19
Матвеева Яна Дмитриевна
Бакалавр
Студентка, Кубанский государственный университет
Россия, Краснодар m4tveeva.yana@yandex. ru
Matveeva Iana Dmitrievna
Bachelor
Student, Kuban State University Russia, Krasnodar [email protected]
Аннотация.
Цель работы - определить экономические детерминанты преступности в России, выявить взаимосвязи между социально-экономическими факторами и видами преступной деятельности. Метод работы - метод сравнительного анализа. Выводом статьи является утверждение о влиянии макроэкономических показателей на уровень преступности. Чем лучше благосостояние населения, тем меньше преступлений будет совершаться.
Annotation.
The gole of the work is to determine the economic determinants of crime in Russia, to identify the relationships between socio-economic factors and types of criminal activity. The method of work is the method of comparative analysis. The conclusion of the article is the statement about the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the crime rate. The better the welfare of the population, the fewer crimes will be committed.
Ключевые слова: преступность, экономика, COVID-19, макроэкономические показатели.
Key words: crime, economics, COVID-19, macroeconomic indicators
1 Study of changes in macroeconomic indicators in the position of crime activity economy in the state
Macroeconomic indicators characterize the development of the economy, indicate economic growth or recession.
In general, the scientific economic literature has developed one approach to the term "macroeconomic indicators". A macroeconomic indicator - is a numerical indicator used in macroeconomics to reflect the economic state. The concept of a macroeconomic indicator is directly related to the concept of economic cycles in economic theory. [1. p. 39]
As such, the term "Change in macroeconomic indicators" is not spelled out in economic science. You can logically derive this term. Changes in macroeconomic indicators are the process of growth or decline of macroeconomic indicators.
Since this indicator covers a large number of different types of crimes, including crimes against the person, when you get the results of modeling, you can talk about the total unit of crimes. If you consider more detailed modeling, you can take a certain type of crime as the output parameters of the model, and build a model based on the new variable and interpret the results.
Based on the analysis carried the following factors were selected as explanatory variables, reflecting the most significant impact on the crime rate.
In this article, the exogenous variables will be:
1. Permanent population (in millions), data for this indicator were taken from Eurostat.
2. Number of immigrants (data taken from national statistical agencies). This indicator is expressed in thousands of people. As it is known in recent years, many crimes have been committed by immigrants, as a result of which their entry into some countries has been restricted. Migrant crime is a type of crime that is distinguished on the basis of such characteristics of the criminal's personality as his participation in migration processes: movement from one territory to another, including a temporary or permanent change of residence.
In the modern world, migration caused by such negative social phenomena as discrimination on the basis of nationality, armed conflicts, extreme poverty, often becomes a factor of crime. The commission of crimes by visitors is also often associated with their involvement in organized criminal activities.
The high percentage of criminals among migrants is caused by socio-economic factors, punishments for violations of migration legislation, as well as racial and ethnic discrimination by law enforcement agencies and the judicial system. The link between immigration and terrorism is poorly understood, but existing research shows that it is weak and that harassment of migrants increases their risk of radicalization.
3. The level of GDP. (in billions of dollars). This indicator indicates the well-being of the population).
4. Average salary level. Data for this item are taken from national databases, and converted into dollars for ease of calculation. This indicator has a direct relationship with the crimes committed, because if the salary level allows people to buy only the most necessary products and nothing more, and even this does not allow, then the crime rate will be higher.
Illegal activity in the state is a type of activity that includes all types of crimes and offenses, as well as activities that are not provided for by permissive acts.
Elizabeth Papp Kamali says this about felonies. Felonies are serious crimes, such as murder, rape, or arson, for which the typical consequence is capital punishment or imprisonment for over a year. [4, p.45] Etymologically, the word felony originally connoted wickedness or evil. The category of felony derives from the English Common Law, in which a felony conviction traditionally resulted in forfeiture of land and movables, as well as the death penalty. The possible consequences of a felony conviction continue to be monumental today, including disenfranchisement, termination of parental rights, and ineligibility for jury service. Some jurisdictions have done away with the felony/misdemeanor distinction, opting instead for more neutral categories such as indictable and summary offenses.
The legal definition of the term crime under Russian law is given in the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, a crime is recognized as a culpably committed socially dangerous act prohibited by this Code under threat of punishment.
The dependent variable is the total crime rate for individual countries, which includes the following indicators, according to the above articles of criminal regulations:
Table 1. Type of crimes and its content
Indicator Content
Murder Violent and non-violent, intentional
Grievous bodily harm Severe and moderate harm to health
Against life and health Here it is taken as a basis as a complete section of the criminal code, all crimes of this nature are included here
Against property Theft, robbery, fraud and other crimes included in the national codes in this category
Financial crime Crimes in this group differ in their composition in different codes, but the essence is the same, these are acts aimed at the financial and economic structure of society
Source: Criminal Code of the Russian Federation
Since this indicator covers a large number of different types of crimes, including crimes against the person, when you get the results of modeling, you can talk about the total unit of crimes. If you consider more detailed modeling, you can take a certain type of crime as the output parameters of the model, and build a model based on the new variable and interpret the results.
Based on the analysis carried out in the first chapter of this paper, the following factors were selected as explanatory variables, reflecting the most significant impact on the crime rate.
The relationship between the macroeconomic indicators of a particular country and the level of crimes committed is directly related. The higher the level of the economy, the higher the level of GDP and GNP, the higher the level of wages and lower unemployment, the less crimes will be committed. After all, most of the country will be busy at work, will receive decent pay for their work, and they will not need to go to extreme steps with crimes. And vice versa, if the country is bad with the economy, then the number of crimes will increase. Mexico is an example of this. The country is not the most developed economy, with a low GDP, and therefore with a very large amount of crime.
This section discusses the basic terminology used in this paper. Several positions of different authors on approaches to the definition of macroeconomic indicators and phelonias were considered. The main indicators and types of crimes that will be involved in the dissertation were considered. And also the main purpose of the work was defined -the relationship between crime and the economy.
Next, the data of three countries will be analyzed as an example. The first is Switzerland, one of the most economically developed, progressive countries and statistically with a low crime rate. The second country is Russia, with fairly average indicators both in economic development and in the level of crime. The third country is Mexico, with an extremely high crime rate and rather low economic development.
Switzerland has the smallest number of people among the three countries. However, its level of GDP is several times higher than in the same countries. It is 43% higher than in the Russian Federation and 56% higher than in Mexico, for illustrative purposes you can plot the distribution of GDP per capita.
However, the level of its GDP is several times higher than in the same countries. 43% higher than in the Russian Federation and 56% higher than in Mexico, for clarity, you can plot the distribution of GDP per capita.
The level of GDP in Switzerland, according to statistical data, exceeds the other two analyzed countries by 7 times. Hence the high standard of living in the country. The same can be said about the average level of salaries, in Switzerland they exceed 7 times other countries (7000 dollars against 800 and 600 in Russia and Mexico, respectively).
The main macro indicators that were freely available were the population of the country, the level of migration, GDP, and average wages. And although there are few basic indicators, this is enough to draw conclusions about the correspondence of the level of economic development and the commission of crimes.
The analysis shows the relationship between exogenous and endogenous factors on the crime rate in a particular country. So, we clearly see the difference in all indicators. The standard of living is GDP, the average wage is much higher in developed Switzerland, and in table 1 we saw the number of crimes per 100 thousand people in this country. These indicators are directly related. After all, the better the standard of living of a particular citizen, the higher his salary and employment level, the lower the chance of committing a crime. It will be uninteresting and unprofitable for a banal person. We see an inverse relationship in other countries, where it may be more profitable for a person to commit a crime from an economic point of view than to go to work, because his salary does not reach the minimum wage.
The analyze shows important socio-economic factors that influence the growth of crime. In the table, we can see how different the level of wages in individual states is, how large the gap between the GDP of the two states is hence, there will be a big difference in the level of crime in these countries.
2 Impact of changes in economic situation on the state of crimes in Russia under influence of the COVID-
19
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on the Russian economy, but has caused a reduction in many types of crime both in this country and around the world.
In the first quarter of this year, the number of rapes, robberies and thefts in Russia decreased compared to the same period last year. This is reported on the website of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia.
The number of rapes and attempted rapes during this period decreased by 31.1%, and robberies-by 20.9%, the ministry said. In addition, the number of thefts fell by 11.2% and robberies by 9.9%.
The department noted that there were also fewer crimes on the streets, including in parks and squares. Their number decreased by 3.3%, " contrary to the forecasts made by some experts about the growth of street crime, allegedly associated with the consequences of the introduced restrictive measures," the report says. It also became safer in transport, where crime fell by 10.9%, they added.
For this and subsequent years, economic growth in Russia was planned at the level of 2% or more. The growth rate of real disposable income of the population was expected to increase by 2.2-2.4 percent. The average annual exchange rate was calculated at 63.9 rubles/$1. The average annual price of the Urals brand for 2020 was estimated at $57.7 per barrel.
However, everything changes dramatically. The impact of the coronavirus on the Russian economy manifests itself in different directions, in different forms, with different severity of consequences, but it captures all spheres of activity, the entire population.
It all started with a reduction in the tourist flow of Chinese tourists, which affected the income of the entertainment economy, air travel, and spending by non-residents in Russia. Further, the export of raw materials to China - both mineral and non-raw materials (food, wood) - began to decline. At the same time, imports also decreased - from infected territories and stopping enterprises, which affected Russia's trade balance and the availability of a number of imported Chinese goods.
However, despite the decline in individual elements of the crime, this can be explained by the fact that the lockdown was observed, people left the house only in certain cases, so such crimes as murder, rape have nowhere to go. But some other species have only grown. This is due to the fact that the economic situation has changed dramatically. The level of fraud has increased, citizens received calls to their phones every day with clearly fraudulent schemes. There were new types of cybercrime, hacking of citizens ' databases, leaking passport data to the darknet. One of the main reasons for this development is precisely the economic downturn, people, including criminals, who previously had a legal job, suddenly found themselves without work, in many cases without wages.
Список используемой литературы:
1. Abel E., Bernanke B. Macroeconomics. St. Petersburg: Peter, 2008. 145.
2. Criminal Code of the Russian Federation from 13.06.1996 N 63-FZ
3. Baizulaev S. A., Shumakhova K. S. Macroeconomic indicators of development: their significance and interrelation. Moscow. 2020.
4. Elizabeth Papp Kamali. Felony and the Guilty Mind in Medieval England.. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2019. 336.
5. Maksimova E. V., Ryabtsev A. G., Sazonova O. A. Influence of coronavirus on the Russian economy. Moscow. 2020
6. The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Forecast of Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation up to 2024, Moscow, 2018, 25.
Особенности освещения событий в Российской империи в британской прессе в середине
XVIII века
Features of the coverage of events in the Russian Empire in the British press in the middle of
the XVIII century
Артеменкова Ксения Павловна
Магистр истории Россия, Санкт-Петербург [email protected]
Artemenkova Ksenia Pavlovna
Master of History Russia, Saint-Petersburg [email protected]
Аннотация.
В работе рассмотрены особенности британских газет середины XVIII столетия как исторического источника и определены характерные для печати черты отражения новостей о Российской империи. Установлено, что источником публикаций британской печати о России были материалы западноевропейской прессы, главным образом, французской и нидерландской, в намного меньшей степени оригинальные новости создавались в Великобритании. Первоисточником известий являлась дипломатическая корреспонденция, которая распространялась по нескольким информационным каналам. В качестве примера были собраны и проанализированы газеты за 1740-е годы.
Annotation.
The paper considers the features of British newspapers of the middle of the 18th century as a historical source and identifies the characteristic features of the press in reflecting news about the Russian Empire. It was determined that the source of publications of the British press about Russia was the materials of the Western European press, mainly French and Dutch, to a much lesser extent, the original news was created in Great Britain. The primary source of news was diplomatic correspondence, which was distributed through several information channels. As an example, newspapers of the 1740s were collected and analyzed.
Ключевые слова: россика, западноевропейские газеты XVIII века, британская пресса XVIII века, The Daily Advertiser, The London Gazette.
Key words: rossika, European newspapers of the XVIII century, the British press of the XVIII century, The Daily Advertiser, The London Gazette.
The importance of the press as a historical source is undeniable. The periodicals of the XVIII century are essential for researchers, as they contain retellings or verbatim reproductions of lost or hard-to-find archival materials. English newspapers about Russia published a lot of messages with retellings of dispatches, messages, manifestos, declarations, both from the Russian side and from the European courts. Some of them have already been discovered in the archives and published by Russian researchers, some of them remain unexplored. No less unique are newspaper rumors spread in Europe about the plots of Russia's foreign and domestic policy, which perhaps do not have any preserved printed analogues at all and were specially recorded by editors only for publication in newspapers.
With the development of the British periodical press, the expansion of the network of metropolitan and provincial newspapers or magazines, their role in informing British readers about the events in Russia in the first half of the XVIII century increased. If the second half of the XVII century marked the first stage of the formation of newspaper business and departments, headings of foreign news, then the next century was marked by the flourishing of the British press and the appearance of many metropolitan, provincial publications covering the situation in the international arena, the everyday life of the royal courts of Europe, loud, curious events, and cases in European capitals and cities. Due to the strategic and geopolitical interests of Great Britain, its trade, military, and diplomatic ties with Russia, correspondence from Moscow and St. Petersburg was of considerable importance for the kingdom. The most detailed and extensive reports
appeared in the British press when covering the change of the monarch on the Russian throne. By the middle of the XVIII century both western European and British periodicals have developed a tradition of publishing not only the latest news about the death of the monarch and the circumstances of the accession of the new autocrat, but also historical articles-pedigrees chronologically briefly telling the reader about the previous Russian rulers. A similar tradition was preserved in British periodicals during the accession to the throne of Anna Ioannovna, Elizabeth Petrovna, Peter III, and Catherine II [20; 28, p. 561; 18, p. 668; 29, p. 341-348]. These sources are a vivid example of the first historical works on the subject of Russia, accessible to the reading audience, and to one degree or another influenced the formation of its views in the field of Russian history. Such historical excursions appeared not only in the form of pedigrees but also as reviews of the modern history of Russia, which preceded the beginning of the reign of the new monarch. They not only played the role of reference material, but also emphasized the growing need of British society to deepen knowledge about the history of Russia and its rulers, as evidenced by a number of published in Europe (in addition to special newspaper indexes) [3] dictionaries and journals containing information about Russian monarchs [23, p. 70-75; 1, p. 42; 19, p. 267-268; 32, p. 13].
The source of publications about Russia were translations from European newspapers without editorial intervention. As a rule, on the first page of each issue there were special headings indicating the borrowing of messages from the foreign press, the characteristic of them being: "yesterday mail arrived from Flanders or mail arrived from Holland, France" [14;15]. Messages of the same content also migrated from the capital to the regional ones [2, p. 195]. The same article could be found in many local newspapers [25; 31; 5]. Sometimes newspapermen honestly signed the origin of the published text, but not always. As a rule, there was an indication of the name of the publication from which this or that message was borrowed. The link was either at the beginning of the news or at the end, depending on the established editorial tradition. For example, the provincial newspapers in question often referred to the capital's "The London Gazette", "The London Evening Post". The date of the issue of the newspaper from which the information was extracted for copying was not always set.
The reports on events in Russia in the studied publications focused on informing the reader about foreign news. They were found in special sections on the front page, entitled "Foreign Affairs" [30] or "Foreign News" [21], "Foreign History" [18; 28], or in a series of other news from different cities and were not included in a specially selected category [4; 16; 22; 24]. Newspapers were also published, mostly writing about life in the British Kingdom and, to a much lesser extent, about other countries. In such publications, as a rule, along with news from different cities, brief information about the Russian Empire was located under the heading "London". Information about the coup of 25 November 1741 was of high significance, and therefore reports about Russia were printed on the front pages of newspapers. However, in some cases, this news, depending on the importance of information about the Russian Empire, can be found on the second and even third pages of the newspaper [16]. In the British newspapers under consideration in the middle of the XVIII century most often, at the beginning of messages about Russia, only the city and country of origin were indicated, for example, "Utrecht (Holland) Dec. 29", "Petersburg (Russia) Dec. 9." [30], or they wrote a brief description of the administrative significance of the city - "Moscow (the capital city of Muscovy) February 7." [17]. Sometimes newspapermen gave a link to a newspaper, the original text of which was borrowed and signed, for example, "From The London Gazette, 26 Dec." [4].
The emphasis on the foreign news agenda indicates that the newspapers of the XVIII century were aimed at the public of politicians, London merchants, and other residents of the city who were interested in the economic and political consequences of the change in the balance of power in Europe [2, p. 195]. Of course, the news contained a lot of advertising information about cultural events in the country, in London, announcements about theatrical productions, about the latest popular literature of various genres, so the newspapers were read by writers, scientists, and representatives
of other creative professions. Most reports about Russia were published in the press with references to St. Petersburg and Moscow, but even in the first half of the XVIII century during the reign of Peter the Great, during which Russia was rapidly involved in European politics, information about the empire appeared in British newspapers with links to other European cities, countries with which Russia had certain relations of both conflict and peaceful nature [26;27]. Among them, it is necessary to highlight such information centers as The Hague, Utrecht, Stockholm, Hamburg, Danzig, Vienna, and to a lesser extent, Copenhagen, Paris, Berlin. Given this circumstance, it was possible to cover and collect as many diverse sources about Russia as possible in the British press. Thus, the paper presents conclusions based not only on voluminous correspondence from the Russian capital and Moscow, but also on more than a hundred messages from the above-mentioned cities.
In British periodicals messages from European cities about Russia from the point of view of the moment of publication of the issue were more relevant and fresh news than similar messages from Russian cities. For example, in the issue of the London newspaper "The Daily Advertiser" dated January 9, 1744, the news from Hamburg about the events in the Russian Empire, dated January 3, was published. The issue of 11 January included a similar note from a German city with a date of 7 January [10; 11]. Thus, the gap between publications in a particular European publication, from which British newspapermen borrowed news, and publications in English newspapers could be less than 7 days. In the case of messages with links to St. Petersburg, this time gap could average 10-20 days, in the case of news from Moscow on average about 20-25 days [6; 7; 8; 9].
In the XVIII century, news that did not appear in continental newspapers came from official sources, reports from British diplomats, or military news from field commanders, the Admiralty, and private correspondents [2, p. 195]. An intractable problem for the researcher is determining the exact primary source of news coverage about Russia. Instead of mentioning the names of specific documents, there were similar general phrases, "messages from St. Petersburg speak" [11]. Similar cliches were used in European newspapers when telling about events in different states, and not only in Russia [12]. As experts on the history of British periodicals of the XVIII century have established and as its news materials about Elizabethan Russia show, the main source of newspaper information was diplomatic documentation. And some publications indirectly or directly pointed to this circumstance, speaking of the receipt by one or another official (foreign minister, ambassador), for example, letters from St. Petersburg, a brief retelling of which was presented in the message [13]. In times of relative calm, the press reflected the politics of Great Britain to a small extent. Indeed, British newspapers, telling about Russia during the period of peaceful interaction with Russia, occasionally broadcast the real attitude of the British cabinet to the empire. The reason for this phenomenon lies in the fact that most of the messages were strictly informational in nature. Newspapers broadcast the external position of the British government, pleasant to the Russian state.
Список используемой литературы:
1. Almanach Royal. Paris de FImprimerie de la Veuve d'Houry, 1742. 434 p.
2. Clarke B. From Grub Street to Fleet Street: An Illustrated History of English Newspapers to 1899. Ashgate: Ashgate Publishing Limited, 2004. 283 p.
3. Muscovy // The Gazetteer's, or, Newsman's Interpreter. London: Printed for S. Ballard, 1741. [без пагинации].
4. The Caledonian Mercury. Numb. 3324. 1742.
5. The Caledonian Mercury. November 22, 1745.
6. The Daily Advertiser. Numb. 3535. 1742.
7. The Daily Advertiser. Numb. 3619. 1742.
8. The Daily Advertiser. Numb. 3660. 1742.
9. The Daily Advertiser. Numb. 3774. 1742.
10. The Daily Advertiser. Numb. 4049. 1744.
11. The Daily Advertiser. Numb. 4051. 1744.
12. The Daily Advertiser. Numb. 4054. 1744.
13. The Daily Advertiser. Numb. 4058. 1744.
14. The Daily Advertiser. Numb. 4424. 1745.
15. The Daily Advertiser. Numb. 4428. 1745.
16. The Derby Mercury. Numb. 42. 1741.
17. The Derby Mercury. Numb. 50. 1742.
18. The Gentleman's Magazine. 1741.
19. The Historical Companion: being a New Introduction to the Political History of all Nations. London: Printed for G. Smith, 1742. 309 p.
20. The Ipswich Journal or The Weekly Mercury. 1730. Numb. 497.
21. The Ipswich Journal. №150. 1741.
22. The London Gazette. Numb. 8078. 1741.
23. The New Political State of Great Britain Including The Public Affairs of Foreign Courts. Vol. I. London: Printed by A. Campbell in King-Street, 1730. 614 p.
24. The Newcastle Courant. Numb. 2507. 1741.
25. The Newcastle Courant. Numb. 2709. 1745.
26. The Post Boy. Numb. 4500. 1718.
27. The Post Boy. Numb. 4651. 1719.
28. The Scots Magazine. 1741.
29. The Scots Magazine. 1762.
30. The Stamford Mercury. Numb. 498. 1741.
31. The Stamford Mercury. Numb. 732. 1745.
32. The Universal Pocket-Book. London: Printed for J. and J. Fox, 1742. 276 p.
