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22
E. Borisova,
Political writer
HISTORY OF CONFLICT OVER WATER RESOURCES IN CENTRAL ASIA IN THE POST-SOVIET PERIOD
Water resources are unevenly distributed in Central Asia. The main source of drinking water in the region is rivers originating in the mountains of Tien Shan and Pamir-Altai. The construction of dams, increased water withdrawals for irrigating agricultural lands, the creation of large and small reservoirs and canals without preventing infiltration and evaporation of water - all this has led to a serious shortage of water resources in the plains region. The Aral Sea is a vivid example that has almost disappeared from maps. As is known, the main reason of the Aral crisis is almost complete stop of flow of water from the Amudarya and Syrdarya, the two great rivers of Central Asia. The Syrdarya flows into the Small Aral Sea, separated from the Large Aral Sea, only in the full-flowing seasons.
It is the legacy of the Soviet period that is usually blamed for this state of affairs. Is it really so?
Let us turn to history for an objective assessment of the situation and in order to find a solution. The Central Asian region has an arid climate and is located in the zone of risky agriculture; its irrigation canals had been dug back in the Neolithic era. As water disappeared, people migrated in search of it. There are many ruins of former settlements and channels in Central Asia: some cities died, others were built in new locations. The most favorable places for settlements were river oases. The most ancient settlements existed in the river valleys of Murghab, Zarafshan and Tedjen. The Amudarya and Syrdarya are particularly important for the desert zone of Central Asia, providing water from mountains to the largest oases in the Aral Sea area.
Big irrigation and drainage construction work was developed after the establishment of Soviet power in the region. Huge reservoirs of fresh water in the mountains were created for irrigated agriculture. Dams were built not only for agriculture but also for electric power generation. The water management system became closely intertwined with the power system in the region, and large hydropower installations were built in the Unified Energy System of Central Asia (UESCA). The internal administrative borders drawn on the ethnic rather than on economic principle were of no importance in terms of water and energy management.
In general, the improvement of living conditions led to a rise of birthrate and a decrease of mortality. As a result, the population has increased dramatically: about six million people lived in the region in the early twentieth century, whereas the figure for the early 21st century was 62 million (2010).
The agricultural sector is the main consumer of water resources throughout the world. As to Central Asia, agriculture accounts for 89-92% of the total water consumption.
The problem of water can be solved, in part, by the use of modern means of resource savings. The countries of the region could avoid water shortages if they resorted to fundamentally new technologies (industrial and postindustrial) and sound management. Israel may serve as an example - its agriculture is one of the most economical in the world in terms of water consumption. Israeli agronomists grow water-intensive plants feeding them with brackish water, using drip irrigation, including point irrigation of plant roots, and treat wastewater.
The system of management created in the Soviet Union made it possible to avoid water shortages by reducing significantly economic
costs, overproduction (in particular, electricity), and resource consumption.
Based on the common interests of the region, irrigation and drainage facilities were under construction, which were linked with the Unified Energy System of Central Asia (UESCA).
The hydro construction projects of the upstream Central Asian republics worked not only for irrigation, but also for electricity generation, although the main operating mode was correlated with the interests of agriculture in the downstream republics - Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. This interdependence made it possible to carry on the exchange of services between the water-scarce, but energy-sufficient Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, on the one hand, and water-sufficient, but poor in other natural resources, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, on the other. All questions concerning the distribution and division of water resources were tackled by the Ministry of Water Resources of the USSR in the 1970s and 1980s.
When the reservoirs of hydropower stations of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have accumulated enough water in autumn and winter, the stored water flowed to the downstream republics of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan for irrigation during the agricultural season. This system was based on definite quotas of water for each republic. The water and energy problems in Central Asia were solved successfully by regional cooperation. This approach made it possible to avoid additional financial and resource expenses. This was particularly noticeable during the concerted operation of power systems within the Unified Energy System of Central Asia. Location of countries in different time zones and energy peak loads were optimally considered parallel with the operation of the countries' power systems, which allowed them to share reserves without duplicating them, as it were, in the case of the systems working in isolation. The optimal schedule
allowed them to combine the advantages of thermal and hydropower generation, reducing their costs and resource consumption. The benefits of this system are obvious, if work is properly organized.
The well-established system of regional water and energy division has become loose after the collapse of the USSR and the proclamation of national sovereignty of the republics of Central Asia. Political boundaries of the former Soviet republics have become important, but the economic structure, created earlier, has ignored them. Each of the newly-formed countries has sometimes abused interests of its neighbors during the operation of the agreed-on system in the same way as participating countries were not ready to sacrifice any of their interests. Accumulated mutual discontent has been expressed through violations of commitments and presentation of new demands. Energy costs have been set arbitrarily by each party, which led to new disputes. Price difference between summer and winter electricity, electricity produced by hydropower plants and thermal power plants, belated payments - all these factors complicated the implementation of the agreement between them. The greatest losses were suffered by Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan due to constant violations of mutual contracts. Constant failures have occurred in the supply of energy to downstream countries in winter, because the actual electricity consumption in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in summer was less than calculated and fixed in the contracts.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan had to switch hydropower stations from irrigation over to energy mode and thus use all accumulated water that flooded the territory of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Precious water from the Syrdarya and Amudarya is periodically channeled to two man-made lakes on the territory of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to reduce the effects of winter floods.
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan now receive less water during the agricultural season, and the Aral Sea has deteriorated further as a result of failure to fulfill earlier mutual agreements.
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan realize that water is their main resource and insist on payment for storage and supply of water. They put forward the question of revision of quotas of water with the support of World Bank experts, while their opponents insist on the formula "Water is common treasure and access to it should not be restricted". All parties concerned have formulated their arguments, quite logical sometimes, but this did not lead to an agreement. Thus, the situation has become more complicated, because of absence of a common political course on water issues and the gradual elimination of old economic models.
Interstate disputes on water issues also had a negative impact on the energy system of the region. The upstream countries, faced with a dramatic shortage of energy, began to take electricity from the Unified Energy System of Central Asia in addition to illegally transferring energy to the needs of reservoir operation. This has led to frequent failures in the regional power supply system.
Turkmenistan was the first country, which became openly dissatisfied with the unstable situation, withdrew from the Unified Energy System of Central Asia in 2003, and switched over to parallel operation with Iran due to its geographical position and power capacity.
North Kazakhstan also stopped the parallel operation of the Unified Energy System some years later, reducing the existing connection to the power system of Russia. South Kazakhstan continued to work parallel with the rest of Central Asia.
Tajikistan was disconnected from the Unified Energy System in 2009 at the demand of Uzbekistan, which had a favorable territorial position in the center of the energy system. Tajikistan decided to
overcome the problem by completing the construction of the Rogun hydropower plant, the largest in the region, which had been started, and then frozen in Soviet time. Uzbekistan categorically opposed resuming this construction project, regarding it as a threat to its national interests, including environment problems, food safety and the alignment of forces in the region. Uzbekistan periodically organizes a transport blockade of Tajikistan because of the conflict over the Rogun hydropower plant.
The Soviet system of management, and later the World Bank calculations, showed that it was work in irrigation, but not in the sphere of energy that would bring the greatest benefit to all partners, provided there was a fair payment for the storage and supply of water for upstream countries. But this option becomes less likely.
The conflict over water and energy resources is closely related to many other problems of the countries in the region which do not consider it possible to tackle them by returning to the Soviet, though modernized, economic system. Now each country relies on its own strength and help from a foreign donor. Intra-regional cooperation is carried on in a very limited extent.
Every country in Central Asia tries to solve its own complex of water problems without the help of neighbors. The downstream countries build new reservoirs and dams, develop projects and look for sponsors for the construction of cascade hydropower systems that will store water for irrigating downstream fields and generating electricity during the cold seasons.
Reorientation from regional to national levels significantly increases the overall cost of dealing with water scarcity, but does not solve the problem of saving water resources. The Soviet model had significant flaws, but solved the problem of limited water resources in the region better.
Today it is necessary to act at several fronts to solve all existing problems.
First, the Central Asian region should be considered as an entity from the economic point of view, which entails the need to create a workable political and economic union.
Secondly, it is extremely important to introduce new energy saving technologies.
And thirdly, it is no less important to solve the problem of overpopulation in the region.
List of literature
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"Vostok-Orient," Moscow, 2014, No 2, pp. 80-86.
