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Received: 13.09.2023. Accepted for publication: 27.09.2023.
VALENTINA SCHENSNOVICH. GEOPOLITICS OF TAJIKISTAN IN MODERN CONDITIONS AND STRATEGIC TASKS OF THE STATE. Analytical Review
Keywords: Central Asia; Republic of Tajikistan (RT); strategy; polycentric world; international cooperation; COVID-19 pandemic; geopolitics; regional security; integration; sovereignty; independence; priority development programs; CIS; SCO; EAEU; CSTO; labor migration.
Valentina Schensnovich,
Research Associate, Publishing Department of the Journals "Rossiya i Musulmanskiy Mir" & "Russia and the Moslem World", INION RAN,
e-mail: vl-lyuba9@yandex.ru
Citation: Schensnovich V. Geopolitics of Tajikistan in Modern Conditions and Strategic Tasks of the State. Analytical review // Russia and the Moslem World, 2023, № 4 (322), P. 41-60. DOI: 10.31249/rmw/2023.04.04
Abstract. The review analyzes the development of the Republic of Tajikistan in the conditions of the formation of a polycentric world. The cooperation of Tajikistan with regional and global actors during the COVID-19 pandemic is studied, the main trends in the system of geopolitical coordinates of Central Asia are determined.
Introduction
Global processes affect geopolitical dynamic of Central Asia. Into the emerging geostructure of the world Russia, China, India are making their own allowances, which historically closely interacted in Eurasian space and became centres of force in the new conditions. During the pandemic period, threats to the national security of Central Asian States remain, proceeding from Afghanistan, as well as unresolved ethno-territorial problems on the Tajik-Kyrgyz border.
Since the "National Development Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period up to 2030" requires significant resources for its implementation, thus in the "Activity Plan of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan on preventing impact of potential risks of coronavirus pandemic in the world on the national economy" (2020) not only internal resources, but also resources of international donors (UNDP, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, OSCE, USAID) were drawn on.
Geopolitical Trends in Modern Tajikistan
Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor of Russian-Tajik (Slavyansky) university G.M. Maitdinova (Dushanbe, RT) [1] notes: during the pandemic, Tajikistan, like many countries of the world, used the tactics of "self-isolation" from the surrounding states: border closure, termination of air and rail transportation. The spread of the pandemic in the country has led to a weakening of ties between industrial and agricultural production and supply of goods, interruption in the work of civilian aircraft
and railway communications, tourism, etc. Consequence of border closure was the rise in price of food and basic industrial goods, and due to the quarantine measures introduced in countries of traditional stay of labor migrants fell the inflow of remittances.
In the process of spreading the pandemic in Tajikistan, it was necessary: the development of anti-crisis measures, the accelerated construction of hospitals, the involvement of external medical and financial resources, tactical changes in priorities in the work of foreign affairs agencies. In the "Activity Plan of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan on preventing impact of potential risks of coronavirus pandemic in the world on the national economy" (2020), special attention is paid to: providing the consumer market abundance with essential products (including flour, oil, meat, sugar, eggs, vegetables); increasing production and preventing price increases; ensuring timely fulfillment of the state's social obligations; to support vulnerable segments of the population; providing tax concessions to small and medium-sized businesses, reducing and postponing non-tax inspections; attracting financial assistance from international financial institutions.
The effects of the pandemic on the country's domestic and foreign trade were especially acute. They also affected the volume of foreign direct investment, tourism and services, and the transportation sector. According to expert evidence, the total damage to the country's economy will be about $2 billion. Tajikistan needs to develop projects for external investors, such as construction and joint ownership of interstate railways, new large international airport, a textile mill; it is necessary to invest external financial resources in the extraction and processing of rare metals and rare earths, in the creation of enterprises of large chemistry, modern agricultural and travel holdings. In addition, demographic processes in the republic in the future will require a significant increase in jobs, houses, schools, kindergartens, where serious investments are needed.
Since the beginning of 2020, Tajikistan has received humanitarian assistance from 43 countries of near and far abroad. In the context of the pandemic, the interaction of the republic with the states of the Central Asian region in a bilateral format has intensified. The Government of Uzbekistan sent medicines, medical staff and a mobile clinic to Tajikistan, Kazakhstan sent a batch of flour to Tajikistan. Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan also gave their support.
Mutual assistance of the states of the region, which themselves are experiencing a negative impact of the global crisis and the coronavirus pandemic on the state of their economies, indicates that the stable development of economic and public life after the pandemic will depend on the efforts of regional cooperation and solidarity.
The top three donors which provided assistance to Tajikistan were Uzbekistan - about $2.5 million, China - about $2 million and Russia - $865 thousand. In the context of rising cases of coronavirus, Iran and India also provided significant humanitarian assistance. Humanitarian aid from international donors came in the form of medicines and food products. Only in the first half of 2020, Tajikistan was assisted in the fight against the pandemic or foreign donors expressed a desire to allocate grants: Swiss Development and Cooperation Office; UNICEF; the European Union; the USA; the World Bank; The Asian Development Bank and others.
On December 17, 2020, there was hosted the approval ceremony of the draft of the UN Development Program (UNDP) "Assistance in eliminating the economic consequences of COVID-19 through improving living conditions, employment opportunities and regional cooperation in the Ferghana Valley of the Republic of Tajikistan," for the implementation of which the Russian Government allocated $2 million. The project provides for the strengthening of cross-border cooperation with Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, the exchange of best practices between the countries of Central Asia. The implementation of two UNDP projects is
also important for the social development of the republic: "Strengthening communities in the Khatlon region and the Rashta valley of Tajikistan" and "Youth for business and innovation," funded by the Russian Federation. Since 2014, Russia and UNDP have implemented in the country nine projects worth $17 million. Due to cooperation between Russia and UNDP, over the past three years, hundreds of jobs have been created in Tajikistan, more than 15 thousand people have been able to improve their professional level.
The pandemic demonstrates the interconnectedness and interdependence of states not only of the region, but also of the world, since no state can independently and effectively fight the crisis and ensure its own national security. In this regard, Central Asian states need a regional roadmap to counter the pandemic. The unity of the countries of the region around common goals should be carried out on the basis of a series of summits that determine the political vector in the name of regional stability in organizations such as the CIS, CSTO, SCO, EAEU.
It is obvious that regional integration in the post-pandemic period will be strengthened around the EAEU, therefore, the expansion and deepening of the EAEU is becoming relevant. Tajikistan hasn't made a political decision to join the EAEU yet. During the pandemic period there increased the importance of the SCO and the EAEU as multilateral institutions in conditions when due to the confrontation of the United States with China and Russia most global governance tools, including the UN, may be less effective. Considering, that the core of the SCO's economic potential is made up of the world's largest economies (Russia, China, India, Iran, etc.), which prefer to interact economically with states regions in a bilateral format, it is important to discuss within the SCO opportunities for joint implementation of major country projects built-in national strategies.
A reflection of the increased attention of external actors to Central Asia was the emergence of new formats of interaction.
There is interest in the "5 + 1" format from many external forces, for example: "C5 + 1" with the USA, "5 + 1" with the PRC, in 2020, the C5 + Russia format was created. In this format consultations were held: Japan - "Japan plus Central Asia"; Korea -South Korea plus Central Asian countries. Development of a common EU strategy in Central Asia and its participation in the ministerial dialogue of foreign policy leaders the region and the formation of the C5 + EU dialogue platform indicate the increased geopolitical role of the Central Asian region.
Iranian-Speaking Alliance
Afghanistan - Iran - Tadzhikistan
Analyzing the formation and development of the Iranian-speaking cultural and economic alliance "Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Iran" G.M. Maitdinova [2] considers its modern state in conditions of geopolitical change. The author focuses attention on joint communication and energy projects of these three states, assessing the potential for their interaction. Special attention in the article is paid to the analysis of the influence of Afghan factors for integration processes in the Iranian world. The researcher concludes that Tajikistan's relations with Iranian-speaking states which are close culturally and geographically, harmoniously fit into the concept of its multi-vector foreign policy. At the same time, rapprochement with Iran and Afghanistan was due not only to the civilizational community of the three states, but also to pragmatic considerations: in particular, Tajikistan needed the transit potential of neighboring states to implement its communication strategy, and the creation of Afghan-Pakistani, Afghan-Iranian-South Asian, Caspian-Iranian-South Asian corridors were not of interest only from an economic point of view, but also had deep humanitarian meaning. The author states: appearance in the Central Asia of the Iranian-speaking geopolitical field allowed Tajikistan not just acquire an additional resource for development, but make a
breakthrough beyond the closed post-Soviet borders into the Islamic world.
Such interaction, the researcher emphasizes, contributes to the restoration of the geopolitical integrity of the region and the modernization of the countries of Central Asia, and in the future may lead to the formation of a new important pole development in a polycentric world. In the foreign policy of Tajikistan, an important place is occupied by cooperation with Afghanistan and Iran due to the cultural, historical, religious and linguistic proximity of the three countries. Ensuring national Tajikistan's interests and maintaining stability in the region depends on interaction between them.
Iran-Afghanistan-Tajik cooperation in the post-Soviet period began to develop during the years of independence of Tajikistan. During the period the inter-Tajik conflict of the 1990s, Iran helped stabilize the situation in Tajikistan, playing an important role in reconciling the opposing parties (1997). The sovereignty of Tajikistan, which was perceived as part of Iranian power elites as part of "Greater Iran," forced official Tehran to think about creating a new geopolitical Tehran-Kabul-Dushanbe axis, which could compete with Turkish integration projects carried out in Central Asia and the Caucasus. For Tajikistan, Iran was one of the key investors, which also has the richest reserves of oil and gas. As for Afghanistan, the main interest for Dushanbe was its transit opportunities, using which the Tajik state could withdraw from communication blunt axe. In addition, Afghanistan, like Iran, is rich in minerals, but their development is difficult due to lack of necessary infrastructure. Rapprochement of the three countries should have contributed to the large-scale construction of railway lines from Iran through Afghanistan to Tajikistan. Great importance was also attached to the implementation of energy projects.
The global changes that took place at the beginning of the third decade of the 21 century made adjustments to the implementation of national development strategies and to
geopolitical processes in Central Asia as a whole. National Development Strategy up to 2030 adopted in Tajikistan.
In November 2018, in his appeal to the country's parliament, President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon reminded of the implementation of four strategic tasks - communication, energy and food security, secondary industrialization. The first strategic task - communication - was achieved by implementing a number of joint projects with China, Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The industrialization of the country should be the new national objective. The President emphasized that by 2030 the share of industry in the gross national product (GNP) should increase 22 per cent, but this result can only be achieved by the secondary industrialization. This requires high technology, sea and land communications, but the main thing is long-term stability. All this can ensure regional cooperation. Coronavirus pandemic has become a serious test for Central Asian states in 2020-2021 and threatened the sustainable development of Tajikistan. The interaction of industrial and agricultural production has weakened, the supply of goods has been disrupted, a forced break came in the work of civil airlines and railways, the tourism industry as well ran into difficulties. Not less the national interests of Tajikistan were damaged by the aggravation of military-political situation in Afghanistan, where the Taliban movement banned in Tajikistan and in the list of terrorist organizations came to power. The Afghan crisis of 2021 increased the risks associated with drug trafficking and the activities of extremist groups in Afghan-Tajik border. In addition, it placed in jeopardy the implementation of joint communication and energy projects - functioning of the KTAI transit corridor (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Iran), construction of a bridge over the river
Pyanj in Kunduz and the Jaloliddin Rumi - Lower Pyanj railway, as well as the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline (TAPI), implementation of Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan-Pakistan-India electricity transportation plan (CASA-1000), etc.
The most painful for Tajikistan were the complications associated with the construction of the trans-Afghan railway Termez-Mazari-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar. It would allow Dushanbe to strengthen cooperation with the states of South Asia, gain permanent access to their markets, as well as access to the southern seaports of Karachi and Gwadar, which would give the opportunity to diversify already existing logistics flows to the Iranian ports of Chehbehar (Chabahar) and Bandar Abbas, increase commercial transit, reduce the cost of freight transport and their time periods. The road was planned to be built in 5 years, spending about $5 billion on credit from a consortium of international financial institutions. Realization this project would not only bring communication and energy benefits to Tajikistan, but also provide an opportunity to restore the economy of Afghanistan and begin its modernization. Iran and Pakistan are also interested in the construction of the highway, the potential of their ports of Chehbehar (Chabahar) and Gwadar is proposed to be used as part of the project. In the implementation of the project "Termez-Mazari-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar" India and China were also involved. The reconstruction and operation of the port of Gwadar is carried out with the direct participation of China as part of the implementation of the Belt and Road initiative, and the modernization of the port of Chehbehar was carried out with the participation of India.
After the start of the highway, the main trade routes will pass through India, Iran, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan or through India, Iran, Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Afghan crisis 2021 negatively affected the construction time and cost of the project. Prolonged political uncertainty in the country raises construction risks and reduces its investment appeal, and the failure of Afghan authorities to secure transit forces participants of the project to look for ways to solve communication problems. For Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, which have no access to sea routes, alternative communications are especially important, for example: access to the Caspian Sea through ports
in Turkmenbashi (Turkmenistan) and Aktau (Kazakhstan) and then, through Baku (Azerbaijan) or Bender-Enzeli (Iran) to a key point - the port of Chekhbehar (Chabakhar). Such a route allows the meridional integration of the states of Central and South Asia. Iranian and Afghan vectors, the researcher believes, in Tajikistan's foreign policy, which is guided firstly by its national interests, remains one of the key. This means that Tajikistan will participate in solving the "Afghan problem" and develop partnership with Iran, despite all the difficulties and contradictions.
The basis of Afghan policy of Tajikistan is an ideology of "security through development" which implies assistance to Kabul in the restoration and development of the national economy by coordinating and implementing infrastructure projects (building communications, encouraging investment, trade facilitation, etc.). Characterizing relations between the two countries at the modern stage, the author notes: for the first time in a long time, a new stage of cooperation has come in Tajik-Iranian relations. The new Iranian President Said Ibrahim Raisi made his first official visit to Tajikistan (September 15-16, 2021). During this visit, the parties agreed on the development of a long-term program of trade economic cooperation to 2030 and signed eight new international legal instruments on interaction. Presidents of Tajikistan and Iran called on Afghanistan to form an inclusive government that would include representatives of all ethnic groups. At the anniversary summit of the SCO in Dushanbe (September 2021), the admission procedure was started for Iran as a full member of the Organization. In the context of the geopolitical transformation of Central Asia, the intensification of the integration processes of South and Central Asia, as the Afghan state stabilizes politically, there are all opportunities for intensification of cooperation in the Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Iran triangle, strengthening the economic and humanitarian components of the trilateral union of Iranian-speaking states.
The history of Iranian-Afghan-Tajik relations at the beginning of the 21 century shows that the alliance among the three Iranian-speaking states and their integration are based primarily on cultural and linguistic affinity. However, in modern geopolitical processes, the civilizational factor is no longer decisive for rapprochement, and the activation of Iran in Tajikistan and the difficult political situation in Afghanistan largely "outweigh" centripetal trends. It is not surprising that in these conditions, a priority for Tajikistan is cooperation with the states of the post-Soviet region, with which it is associated with allied relations within the CSTO and partnership relations within the CIS and SCO.
Social and Economic Development of Tajikistan
In an article by professors of the Tajik State Pedagogical University named after S. Aini M.H. Malikova and A.K. Khusainov [3], the socio-economic and cultural development of the republic over the years of independence discussed. Even during the inter-Tajik conflict, the new government was developing a program to restore the ruined economy of the country and its further revival. Four programs appeared: energy, takeaway of the country from communication isolation, food program and the program of industrial and agricultural development of the country. At the same time, the fulfilment of the tasks of these programs began as the inter-Tajik conflict was resolved, when the country was in a political and economic crisis. Legislatively there were defined goals and strategic directions of building a market economy in Tajikistan, a new policy and ideology of an independent state.
Emomali Rahmon's government paid focused attention during the years of independence to the state of energy, the sustainable work of which was necessary for the entire national economic complex, and the Tajik opposition purposefully destroyed the objects of the national economy. The government
undertook emergency measures to revive energy industry during the transition period.
In 1992-1994 destroyed power grids, electric substations and units, small power plants were repaired and put into operation. In parallel, the Pamir, Khorog-1, Sangtua-1, Sangtua-2 and Rogun hydroelectric power plants were built, the renewal of which is under special control - its completion doubles electricity production in the republic; allows the country to provide full energy independence. At the same time, work began on small energy programs on small rivers and their feeders. Electricity production increased from 17 billion kWh in 1991 to 21 billion kWh in 2020. For revival of the energy economy of the republic 32 construction investment companies were involved in, investing $2.5 billion US. As a result, activity of energy economy of the country fully resumed, the pace of construction of energyobjects accelerated; electricity is used in labor-intensive processes of industry, agriculture, construction, communications, culture, everyday life.
By 1994, the volume of carriage of passengers and goods down public roads in the Republic of Tajikistan was significantly reduced, by 1995 cargo transportation decreased by 6.4 times, passengers - by 136.7 times.
These shortcomings had to be eliminated in the shortest possible time and measures to attract foreign investors functioned effectively here. In general, over the years of independence more than 53 investment projects have been used for these purposes, more than 2,200 km of roads of international importance were built. With involvement of only investments, but also specialists, equipment, facilities of a number of neighboring states there was built the 354-kilometer Dushanbe-Buston-Chanak highway with improved road quality and much more, which contributed to the exit of Tajikistan from complete communication isolation. By the river Pyanj there were constructed several bridges connecting Tajikistan and Afghanistan. The targeted construction during the years of
independence of the Kurgan-Tyube-Kulyab, Dushanbe-Yavan-Kurgan-Tyube railways was important for economic development; airlines Dushanbe-Moscow, Dushanbe-Minsk, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Turkey, India, UAE, Saudi Arabia opened etc.
In 2015, Tajik Air and Somon Air aircraft rendered air services to the population in 33 directions to nine countries of near and far abroad.
The social well-being of the country, and first of all its villages, largely depended on dealing with the agrarian issue. Therefore, the government led by Emomali Rahmon assumed issues on the revival of the country's agricultural sector. Over the past 15 years in agriculture there has been implemented investment projects for the amount of 3.7 billion somoni, and at present more nine projects worth 1.5 billion somoni are being carried out.
During the years of independence, the restoration and development of industry, construction and communications was required. A row industrial areas was formed, including: two oil enterprises, three cement plants, textile plants, construction of three enterprises of the chemical industry, two large metallurgical enterprises for processing of non-ferrous metals, gold. Over the past nine years, the country's GDP has increased by 7.5 per cent.
The total volume of the state budget increased during this period from 12 billion to 23 billion somoni.
The development of sectors of the economy and an increase in domestic gross production became the basis for the successful development of education, science, culture. Government of sovereign Tajikistan tried to create a solid financial fund of education, science and culture. Independent Tajikistan became a full member of the UN and a number of world and regional -state and public political organizations. 178 countries confirmed the status of sovereign Tajikistan more than 100 countries maintain economic and cultural relations with it. In 40 countries
of the world, embassy and consular services are fully functioning. Today Tajikistan's authority in the world community has grown. It became a member of the CIS, CSTO, UNESCO, World Bank, World Health, Asian Development Bank, Islamic Bank, World Ecological Organization for the Salvation of the Aral Sea, etc.
Prospects for the Development
of Relations between Russia and Tajikistan
Relations between Russia and Tajikistan are developing in political, economic, military, cultural spheres. Between the two countries permanent political contacts at the top level have been established. In recent years, the volume of Russian-Tajik foreign trade turnover has been growing. There has been a success in the development of strategic partnership between the two countries and in other areas.
D.A. Umerov [4], an applicant for the Institute of Law and National Security of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation, pays special attention to problems in Russian-Tajik relations. From this perspective the article considers situations related to the construction of the Rogun hydroelectric power station, labor migration and possible Tajikistan's entry into the EAEU, recommendations are given to solve these problems.
Speaking about the water and energy cooperation of Russia and Tajikistan, the author notes that relations between the two countries will be effective if competitive advantages of each other are used. Rogun hydroelectric power station has become a particular symbol, the national idea of Tajikistan. This competitive advantage must be skillfully dealt with. However, the country does not have enough financial resources, foreign investment is needed. Tajikistan is particularly interested in the development of hydropower to meet the needs of the state. At the same time, new jobs would be created, which is relevant for the country with its excessive labor resources. In addition, electricity
can be supplied both to the neighboring Central Asian republics and to the south, to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, in accordance with the CASA-1000 project. Currently, these issues are partially solved due to the launch of the first two units of the Rogun hydroelectric power station. Efficient use of water and energy resources gives chance to intensify integration cooperation between countries of the region. Providing allies with the necessary resources to which electricity belongs is an important condition for the success of integration processes.
Limited access to water resources in Central Asia has a high multiplicative effect on various socio-economic aspects of the development of the countries of the region. In 2020, Tajikistan, due to water shortages, was unable to fulfill its obligations to supply electricity to Afghanistan. If current climate trends of temperature increase continue, then it will be impossible to implement the project CASA-1000. The energy aspect of this problem is also influenced by international factors, in particular construction by Uzbekistan of nuclear power plant with the participation of Russia, the first stage of which should be put into operation, according to plans, in 2028. It should also be noted that in 2019 Russia proposed Kazakhstan to build a nuclear power plant on its territory, which the country needs, since its energy balance is currently turns mostly on coal.
From a tactical point of view, these actions of Russia can be considered as contrary to the interests of Tajikistan. However, strategically, taking into account the mentioned climate trends, they can contribute to the long-term reliable energy supply of Central Asian countries. Thus, to solve the water-energy problem in Central Asia, various factors influence. Among them are climate trends, relations between the countries of the region, funding problems, etc. Some of them have long-term, strategic nature, while others short-term and essentially tactical one. Both should be taken into account when forming the positions of Russia and the countries of the region relating to the water-energy problem.
Labor Migration from Tajikistan
In recent years, external labor migration from Tajikistan is growing at a high rate. There are from 1.5 to 2 million migrant workers. Unofficially, more than 1 million people of them is in labor migration in Russia. Over 90 per cent of Tajik migrants go to work to Russia. External labor migration in the Russian Federation helps reduce the level of social tension in Tajikistan. Annually labor migrants send at least 2 billion dollars to Tajikistan. According to the World Bank, in 2018, money transfer accounted for 31 per cent of Tajikistan's GDP. It saves the population of the country from extreme poverty. However, migration flows also have the flipside. In Russia have repeatedly had problems with ethnic criminality, and the Tajik community has questions for Russia, especially concerning living conditions and safety of migrant workers.
To solve the urgent problems of the migration aspect of Russian-Tajik relations, the policy of "integration before migration" is currently being developed. It consists in providing potential migrants with additional information about the culture and history of the destination country. Implementation of the principle "integration before migration" will create conditions for the integration of migrants into Russian society, and not into national diasporas, as is currently happening. If the implementation of such a migration policy is successful there will be less conflict and problems in this area. However, in the long term Tajikistan doesn't get benefits from mass migration because the country loses the most valuable - labor, or human capital. Therefore, the implementation of the principle of "integration before migration," according to the researcher, should be only the first stage in resolving the contradictions of the migration aspect of Russian-Tajik relations.
Option of the policy of circulation of labor migrants, according to the author, best suited to interests both country of origin of a migrant, and the country of his stay. With this
approach, the goal is to harmonize the strategy and tactics of the Russian-Tajik relations in their migration aspect. It could be proposed in Russian-Tajik relations. But such a policy will be possible only if Tajik labor migrants are able to realize at home the knowledge and skills gained in Russia. Considering that the main economic partner of Tajikistan is Russia, more effectively this task can be solved in the process of developing cooperation between the two countries.
Tajikistan's Accession to the EAEU
Issues of Tajikistan's accession to the EAEU are considered by various experts from different points of view. The theoretical basis for the study of the question of Tajikistan's entry into the EAEU can be the theory of the customs union of J. Weiner. Dynamic effects appear only after longstanding substantial integrative work. Static integration effects, taking into account their short-term nature can be called tactical, and dynamic -strategic. As in other areas of activity, there are some contradictions between them. States and national companies would like to receive the benefits of integration as quickly as possible however it is well known that fast effects become obsolete as quickly.
Within the framework of the EAEU, it is already noted today that the effects of zeroing of customs tariffs in trade between the participating countries have almost exhausted their possibilities, although in 2020 the Union turned only five years old.
Therefore, in the course of Eurasian integration, other integration effects should be included, such as a single industrial, energy policy, digital agenda, and they are the dynamic effects of the customs union. Meanwhile in matters of attracting new members to the EAEU in the first place is occupied, as a rule, by the problems of the implementation of static effects of the customs union. For example, Tajikistan is worried about the prospect of losses of national business in the opening of the Tajik
market for the EAEU countries, since it is less competitive compared to Russian, Belarusian and Kazakh companies. Strategically, dynamic integration effects are no less important than static ones, although they will not appear immediately. Another important point in analyzing the possibility of Tajikistan joining the EAEU is not to consider the Union only in its current state, but to make provisions for future development.
Hard work is underway on Strategy for further development of integration processes within the framework of the EAEU. Experts offer various directions for deepening of this integration. It would be beneficial for Tajikistan to join this work today, because this way it will have the opportunity to take into consideration its national interests in building Eurasian integration for years to come.
For the successful development of relations between Russia and Tajikistan, the researcher concludes, it is necessary to combine skillfully the strategy and tactics of foreign policy activities.
The strategy provides for long-term goals for the implementation of national interests. Foreign policy tactics include short-term actions aimed at realization of the strategy and the use of various monetary circumstances in the implementation of national interests.
The water-energy problem is one of the most important in the Russian Tajik relations and in the region of Central Asia - it can both open up new prospects in the cooperation of Tajikistan and other countries of Central Asia, and aggravate relations between them. Russia must take part in its solution. Another important problem in Russian-Tajik relations is connected with the mass labor migration of Tajik citizens to Russia. There are many problems in the migration processes of Tajik citizens to Russia, the policy "integration before migration" should be used more widely to overcome them.
However, in the long term, it's necessary to move to the policy of "circulation of minds." Strategically, this policy the most suits both the interests of Russia, and Tajikistan. There are
different opinions in the matter of Tajikistan's accession to the EAEU. Strategically, the dynamic effects of Eurasian integration should be analyzed closely. Realization of the competitive advantages of Tajikistan, according to D. Umerov, it will be the most complete transcendency of the country outside the national framework.
Conclusion
Central Asian states should coordinate their national development strategies with reference to formation of a new economic system. Projection of the Global Crisis in Central Asia showed the need to develop regional political, economic, humanitarian cooperation, and an accelerated solution to ethno-political problems.
During the pandemic, threats to the national security of Central Asian states emanating from Afghanistan, as well as unresolved ethno-territorial problems on the Tajik-Kyrgyz border remained. In the regions of South and Central Asia it is needed a new security format that would strengthen cooperation among the states situated around the borders of Afghanistan (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Pakistan, China), and countries with priority interests in the Afghan state (Russia, the US, India).
Tajikistan has always supported regional integration, coordinated its actions with regional actors with implementing of its National Strategy - 2030, sought to develop an agreed position on many pressing issues of regional development, and also took part in the elaboration of common approaches to the prospects for the development of the region in the context of increased globalization.
Researchers emphasize acute problems for Tajikistan: water and energy one, the problem of migration and the country's entry into the EAEU. When solving them, it is necessary to take into account the interests of Tajikistan, Russia and the dynamics of Eurasian integration.
References
1. Maitdinova G. Tajikistan in geopolitical trends at the beginning of the third decades of the 21 century // Tajikistan and the modern world, 2021. Vol. 4. P. 9-16.
2. Maitdinova G.M. Cooperation of the Republic of Tajikistan within the framework of Iranian speaking alliance Afghanistan-Iran-Tajikistan // Bulletin of the Russian State Humanitarian University. Series "Eurasian Studies. History. Political science. International relations" 2022. № 1. P. 96-105.
3. Malikov M.H., Khusainov A.K. Advantages of independence and sovereignty for Tajikistan // Bulletin of the State Pedagogical University named after S. Aini, 2021. № 1 (90). P. 235-243.
4. Umerov D.A. Prospects for the development of relations between Russia and Tajikistan // News of Southwestern State University. Series: History and law. 2021. V. 11. № 1. P. 71-84.
Received: 10.03.2022.
Accepted for publication: 24.03.2022.
