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Наджафов Зафар Нури ГЕОПОЛИТИЧЕСКОЕ СОПЕРНИЧЕСТВО ...
UDC 327.56
GEOPOLiTiCAL RIVALRY BETWEEN RUSSiA, USA AND CHiNA OVER THE AZERBAIJAN iN SOUTH CAUCASUS: COMPETiTiON OR CO-OPERATiON?
© 2019
Najafov Zafar Nuri, senior lecturer of the Department of national security and humanitarian science Military Academy of the Republic of Azerbaijan (AZ1065, Azerbaijan Republic, Baku, Tbilisi Ave, 53, e-mail: zafarnajafov@yahoo.com)
Abstract. The article deals with the models of geopolitical competition between Russia, USA and China over the Azerbaijan. With its rich energy resources, Azerbaijan is located in the South Caucasus, which has a favorable geographical position in Eurasia. Historically, the South Caucasus has become a battlefield for the creation of sphere of influence between Russia, Iran and the Ottoman Empire. In the 21st century, the competition over the region continues between more giant powers reminiscent of the geostrategic triangle: Russia, the United States and China. Russia traditionally carried out its interests through hard power (military expansion, mediation and peacekeeping operations). The United States and China prefer to provide their interests in Azerbaijan with soft power (energy and pipeline diplomacy, OBOR initiative). The future of geopolitical struggle for Azerbaijan will depend on how relations between hard and soft powers will develop.
Keywords: geopolitical games, energy resources, geostrategic player, vital area, hard and soft power.
ГЕОПОЛИТИЧЕСКОЕ СОПЕРНИЧЕСТВО МЕЖДУ РОССИЕЙ, США И КИТАЕМ ЗА АЗЕРБАЙДЖАН НА ЮЖНОМ КАВКАЗЕ: КОНКУРЕНЦИЯ ИЛИ СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВО?
© 2019
Наджафов Зафар Нури, старший преподаватель кафедры национальной безопасности и гуманитарных наук, Военная академия Азербайджанской Республики (AZ1065, Азербайджанская Республика, Баку, пр. Тбилиси, 53, e-mail: zafarnajafov@yahoo.com)
Аннотация. В статье рассматриваются модели геополитической конкуренции между Россией, США и Китаем за Азербайджан. Азербайджан, обладающий богатыми энергетическими ресурсами, расположен на Южном Кавказе, который имеет выгодное географическое положение в Евразии. Исторически Южный Кавказ стал полем битвы за создание сферы влияния между Россией, Ираном и Османской империей. В XXI веке продолжается борьба за регион между более гигантскими державами, напоминающими геостратегический треугольник: Россией, США и Китаем. Россия традиционно осуществляла свои интересы с помощью жесткой силы (военная экспансия, посреднические и миротворческие операции). США и Китай предпочитают обеспечивать свои интересы в Азербайджане мягкой силой (энергетическая и трубопроводная дипломатия, инициатива ОБОР). Будущее геополитической борьбы за Азербайджан будет зависеть от того, как будут развиваться отношения между твердыми и мягкими силами.
Ключевые слова: геополитические игры, энергоресурсы, геостратегический игрок, жизненная зона, жесткая и мягкая сила.
Introduction.
The South Caucasus is a very important region of Eurasia in the strategic plan. The region has been in the center of attention for centuries and is now in the focus of its geographical position (East and West, South and Central Asia and Middle East, between the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea) and rich energy resources. Historically, this region was in the interest of the occupying forces. From the 18-19th century the Tsarist Russia, the Persians and the Ottoman Empire became involved in a serious struggle and this struggle ended with the victory of the Russian Empire.
By the end of the 20th century, the fall of the USSR opened the face of the region outside world and started the new geopolitical games. This time geopolitical games should be joined not only by historic neighbors - Russia, Turkey and Iran, but also the United States, the European Union and China. Different geopolitical orientation of the countries of the region and different interests of the external forces intensify competition in the South Caucasus and increase the uncertainty. Geopolitical competition continues in the form of a group (Russia-Armenia, Azerbaijan-Turkey) or alliance (Russia-Iran-Armenia, Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey-USA). Affordable geographical situation, rich energy sources, ethnic and religious diversity and identity, neoempire ambitions and frozen conflicts do not overestimate the regional dimension.
Rezults. There is no doubt that Azerbaijan's geopolitical potential is higher among the countries of the region. Azerbaijan is the "oil hustled" of the South Caucasus. Moreover, Azerbaijan overcomes its neighbors for its territory and population and its independent foreign policy. Unlike Armenia and Georgia, there is no foreign military base in Azerbaijan. This is a factor that strengthens the independence and sovereignty of Azerbaijan. Most of the processes affecting the geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus are around Azerbaijan. These processes give
positive and negative results. Let's first touch upon the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This conflict, which is the result of Armenia's aggressive policy, does not allow the establishment of security and confidence in the region, prevents all positive initiatives and contributes to external interventions. Another important factor is the Azerbaijani oil. The oil paved the way for business contacts in the region, conflict resolution, socio-political stability and development, mainly the role of the United States and the West.
«Conflict-oil asymmetry» not only affected the sociopolitical life of the region and the political forces, but also gave impetus to serious geopolitical games for Azerbaijan. To understand the essence of the tense geopolitical competition for Azerbaijan, we need to know the content of the policy of the great powers in relation to our country.
The main geostrategic player in the region is Russia. After the collapse of the USSR, the post-Soviet space was declared Russia's "vital area" in the fields of economy, defense and national security. Azerbaijan occupies an important place in Russia's South Caucasus policy. After gaining Azerbaijan its independence, Russia could difficulty maintain its position here. Although the Russian military base was withdrawn from Azerbaijan in 1992, it has had the opportunity to influence Azerbaijan in the military-political sphere by supporting Armenia's aggressive policy. The status quo created in the conflict zone allowed Russia to ensure its share in the Contract of the Century on 20 September 1994 and to implement the North option (Baku-Novorossiysk) for the transportation of Azerbaijani oil to the West. Thus, Russia could secure its military, political and energy-communication interests in the geopolitical struggle for Azerbaijan. During the Yeltsin era, more military power and a fierce policy dominated Russia's approach to Azerbaijan.
After coming to power, V. Putin weakened the tough policy course towards Azerbaijan, prevented open support
Najafov Zafar Nuri political
GEOPOLÍTÍCAL RÍVALRY ... sciences
for Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and managed to keep the distance between the conflicting parties and Moscow began to have the same position with official Baku in the status of Kaspian Sea. The achievements of B. Yeltsin gained through «hard power» in Azerbaijan began to be strengthened by means of «soft power» during Putin's rule. Today, the Russian-Azerbaijani relations are developing steadily.
The policy of Russia towards Azerbaijan over the past 27 years can be summarized as follows:
- Russia is interested in frozen the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Because Moscow wants to use this conflict to keep its international activity and regional policy under its influence. Resolution of the conflict and establishment of eternal peace in this region does not meet the interests of Russia;
- to ensure its border security in the South Caucasus. The escalation of the conflict can revive Islamic radicalism in Russia's unstable south borders. The return of the ISIS fighters from Syria to North Caucasus can give additional incentives to the instability;
- to prevent the growth of the influence of US and European countries in Azerbaijan, the reduse the influence of regional powers such as Iran and Turkey;
- to obtain a market in the face of the opposing parties for selling arms and ammunition;
- providing vital interests in energy security, etc [1,p.15-16].
In the geopolitical struggle for South Caucasus and especially for Azerbaijan the main actor after Russia is the United States. The United States has important but not vital interests in the South Caucasus, which include preserving regional stability; preventing the resumption of frozen conflicts; and supporting democratic change and better governance as well as the international integration of regional states[2,p.1]. What we have mentioned above is the priorities of the US South Caucasus strategy. However, the United States has its own specific approach to the each country in region. In relation to Azerbaijan, they are: first, Azerbaijan has rich energy resources; secondly, there is no Russian military base in Azerbaijan. Third, Azerbaijan borders on Iran. Fourth, Azerbaijan has close relations with Israel, the United States' closest ally. Over the past 27 years, the United States has contributed to the realization of the «Contract of the Century» as the biggest gain in the Azerbaijani policy. It is known that The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey) has been selected as the main route in that deal. Through this route, Azerbaijan's oil plays an important role in the energy supply of Europe bypassing Russia.
From the declaration of the ceasefire in the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 1994 to the Russia-Georgia war in August 2008, the United States has taken a number of steps towards weakening Russia's military position in the South Caucasus and has achieved positive results: has become one of the three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group responsible for the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict; in november 1999, at the OSCE summit in Istanbul, a decision was made to close two Russian military bases located in Georgia's Gudauta and Vaziani.
Later, in Georgia and Ukraine, anti-Russian forces came to power through an orange revolt. But Russia's military intervention in Georgia in 2008, the annexation of the Crimea by hybrid war in 2014, and the expansion of Russian separatism to Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk areas are characterized as a return to the cold war not only in the postSoviet space, but also on a global scale. This competition is at the center of attention in Syria now.
Today, the United States tries to secure its own interests by cooperating with Russia in Azerbaijan. Although he has not accept Russia as a decisive figure in the region, he has to reckon with it. He is interested in keeping tensions near the borders of Iran and Russia and their long term 52
freezing. In particular, today Washington is not interested in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, just like Moscow. This conflict allows the United States to achieve its goals, take control of the oil, access the Caspian Sea, and then move towards Central Asia. Today, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a window for the United States to open up to the rich energy resources of Central Asia [3, c.30].
Thus, in the last 27 years, the United States has had to secure its interests in the following political steps in Azerbaijan:
- to continue the role of the co-chair in the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and its dubble standard policy;
- to ensure their energy interests in Azerbaijan by cooperating with Russia;
- limiting the impact of Iran on the entire geopolitical processes in the region, including the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict;
- to support efforts to normalize relations between Turkey and Armenia;
- gradually liberating regional countries from Russian's influence through orange revolution, and so on.
In the region, China is considered to be a potential geostrategic actor after Russia and the United States. There is growing concern that the 21st century will be the century of Pax China. Particularly, this can be part of the global content plan OBOR (One Belt One Road), which China has proposed.
The Boao Asia Forum was held in the People's Republic of China on March 26-29, 2015. The forum was officially announced by the State Committee for Development and Reforms of the People's Republic of China on «Silk Road and Pipeline.» Under the action plan, the belt covers Asia, Europe and Africa. Silk Road Economic Pipeline (SREP), one of the priorities of the PRC's diplomacy in the coming years:
1) to bring together the PRC, Central Asia, Russia and Europe (the Baltic region);
2) linking the PRC with the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea through Central Asia and Western Asia;
3) It is intended to connect the PRC to Southeast Asia, South Asia and the Indian Ocean.
At the Boao Forum, the leader of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping stated that they intend to export more than $ 500 billion abroad and export goods worth $ 10 trillion by 2020. China has announced that it plans to expand its «One Pipeline - One Way» (OBOR) initiative by generating economic corridors and allocating $ 900 billion to countries on the route. China, with the initiative on this route aims to achieve annual trade turnover of $ 2.5 trillion in the next 10 years. In the western media, China's OBOR initiatives are similar to the Marshal Plan, claiming that, China tries to pursue a policy within the geopolitical, military and security interests by tightening economic ties with neighboring countries. According to Chinese Foreign Minister Vang Yi, OBOR's initiative is a product of exceptional cooperation, not geopolitical. It does not need to be looked at by Cold War thinking [4].
Undoubtedly, China has not been active as its strategic rivals for the last 27 years, but there is no problem with its relations with the states of the South Caucasus region. A few years ago, the South Caucasus region was not so important for China. But the situation has changed. This region is now a bridge between Europe and Asia. Beijing is trying to establish good relations with all three South Caucasian countries, not falling into geopolitical traps. Also, China's influence in this region does not affect the interests of other major countries.
China, unlike Western countries, does not interfere with the internal affairs of the region. This is regarded as a sign of respect in the countries of region and in Azerbaijan too. Of course, China has invested in the oil sector in Azerbaijan, which has greatly contributed to the long-term relationships between the two countries. Despite the growing influence Humanitarian Balkan Research. 2019. T.3. № 2(4)
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in the region, the lack of irritation of leading states in the region (Iran, Turkey, Russia) is an indication of the power of Chinese diplomacy. European and Canadian diplomacy has long been the policy of the Cold War era. Due to their diplomacy regional states are forced to choose between Russia and the United States. However, China demonstrates that it is possible to act differently. Investing in large amounts plays a major role in building relationships. At the same time, it is necessary to help the countries financially, avoid stereotypes, and avoid the local geopolitical traps. China's success in the region is primarily due to its political position.
Azerbaijan is the main country linking OBOR to the South Caucasus. Taking into account Azerbaijan's favorable geographical position, China has expressed a desire to create a regional hub here. Thus, with the aim of increasing trade turnover with the countries of population densely inhabited and fast-growing economies such as Iran, Turkey and Southern European countries, they intend to send freight trains to those countries through the territory of Azerbaijan. In other words, the goods must be delivered to Azerbaijan and from here to Iran (via Astara station) or to Turkey (via the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway) or to Europe (the Black Sea via Georgian ports). It is no exception that China will strengthen its position in the region through more «soft power.»
Conclusion. The analysis we have made suggests that the policy of big states for the South Caucasus is based on geopolitical competition between «hard power» and «soft power.» The future prospects of this competition can develop in the form of 3 models:
1.Hegemony model. Russia will remain a leading state in the geopolitical rivalry for Azerbaijan and will not allow the United States and China to become more active in the region, will prevent all their initiatives and dictate own rules of play. It is not excluded that the role and the number of members of the The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union will also increase. This model refers to the absolute superiority of «hard power.»
2. Offside model. Certainly, Russia has a key role in this model. In this model, Russia allows the United States to enter its vital interests zone. But Russia will try to prevent the US from activating its presence in the region by keeping it offside. Azerbaijan's balanced policy meets Russia's interests. On the other hand, the tension between the United States and Turkey will further deepen Ankara's relations with Moscow, and it is beneficial for Azerbaijan. In the near future, Russia will have to experiment with this model in Georgia and Armenia.
In this model, there is a dynamic struggle for hegemony between hard and soft power. The US does not hesitate to undermine Russia's interests as much as it can. Sometimes there are doubts about the relative geopolitical condominium and the gentleman's deal between Russia and USA. It can be seen in the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group. So, both states act as co-chairmen. Moreover, it is possible to see cooperation between them in the production of Azerbaijani oil and its transportation to the West.
3. Co-operation model. Unlike the United States, Russia is likely to create more effective relations with China in the South Caucasus and in Azerbaijan in the future. There are a number of factors that encourage such thinking. First, Georgia's advancement to NATO; Secondly, there is a doubt that the new Armenian government will support a policy oriented toward the West. In these factors, the Russian-US relations in the region will not be smooth in the near future. It is not excluded that, keeping its military power in a superior position, Russia will cooperate with China in non-military spheres in this model. China's neutral and economically profitable policy does not pose a threat to Russia's military presence in the South Caucasus in recent years.
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1. Jakob Hedenskog, ErikaHolmquist and Johan Norberg. Security in the Caucasus. Russian policy and military posture.
2. U.S. Policy Toward the South Caucasus: Take Three - Carnegie ...
3. https://camegieendowment.org/.../u.s.-policy-toward-south-c...
4. Фридрихсон Н. Политика США и России в вопросе урегулирования Нагорно-Карабахского конфликта: формирование новых трендов. Том 6, выпуск 4, 2012. Кавказ и глобализация. с 27-33.
5. Qт qlobal liderliyэ dogru: ует dйnya quruЫ§u mйmkйndйrmй ...newtimes.az/az/processestrends/3934
