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7AndreyBoldyrev*
«GEOGRAPHY» OF THE ISTANBUL CANAL: PROBLEMS, RISKS, CONSEQUENCES
Abstract: Development the final route for Canal Istanbul makes it necessary to resort to a comprehensive analysis of the details of the Canal Istanbul project: ecology problems, water sources, seismic risks and route directions, resettlement issues and the archaeological heritage problems. Nevertheless, to date, there are only a few scientific publications on this issue1. The article attempts to fill this gap and suggests using the term «geography of the Istanbul Canal» for a comprehensive study the route for Canal Istanbul, its infrastructure and the geography of the terrain through which it will pass. Key words: geography of the Istanbul Canal, the Canal Istanbul, archaeological heritage, ecological and seismic risks, problems of water sources.
General characteristics of the Canal Istanbul
On January 15, 2018, Turkish Minister of transport and Maritime communications Ahmet Arslan said that a tender for the construction of the Istanbul Canal will be held in 2018, after which the construction of the Canal will begin. The length of the Istanbul Canal will be 45,2 km, width 400 m, depth 25 m (according to other data, the width of the canal ranges from 250 m to 600-1000 m - depending on where the docks will be located)2. The total area of the Canal will be 30 million square meters. The Canal will be laid to the West of the Bosphorus Strait (to the East of the Marmara), from Lake Kucukcekmece (Kyuchukchekmedzhe) through the Sazlidere reservoir and the Durusu reservoir to the point of Karaburun - on the coast of the Black Sea (see Fig.2). It is planned that the Istanbul Canal will become the main logistics hub serving the Black sea. According to preliminary estimates, the Istanbul Canal will be able to pass up to 160 ships per day3. «The New Strait» is designed to take the «lion's share» of shipping through the Bosphorus. The width of the Bosphorus-700 m in the narrowest place, the depth of the Bosphorus - 33-80 m, the length of the Bosphorus is 30 km4. Every year about 53,000 vessels passes through the Bosphorus Strait. The Bosphorus has 12 turns, so oil tankers suffer an accident at least twice a year, contaminating the Strait and the shores of the country's largest
* Andrey Boldyrev - doctor of Philosophy, History, Senior Scientific Associate of the Center for Middle and Near East Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, boldirew.andrei2011@yandex.ru
1 Of the latest articles about the Istanbul Canal, it should be noted the article by Hayk Gabrielian «K voprosu o glavnyh tureckih infrastrukturnyh proektah: tretij aehroport i kanal «Stambul»».
2 istanbul'un 19 il^esi adali olacak! 6 kopru ile birbirine baglanacak! URL: http://www.hurriyet.com. tr/ ekonomi/ istanbulun-19-ilcesi-adali-olacak-6-kopru-ile-birbirine-baglanacak-40719953.
3 Turciya nachinaet stroit' Stambul'skij kanal. URL: http://seafarers.com.ua/kanal-istanbul-project/14043/
4 istanbul'un 19 ilgesi adali olacak! 6 kopru ile birbirine baglanacak! URL: http://www.hurriyet.com. tr/ekonomi/ istanbulun-19-ilcesi-adali-olacak-6-kopru-ile-birbirine-baglanacak-40719953.
city5. From 6 to 10 bridges will be built across the Istanbul Canal (see Fig. 4), and in places of access to the seas is supposed to create three artificial Islands (as this already implemented in Dubai (the UAE). The Third (New) airport is currently under construction in the European part of Istanbul, near the mouth of the Canal leading to the Black Sea. The first phase of the airport was put into operation on October 29, 2018. It is expected that this airport will be the largest in the world and will serve about 150 million passengers annually6.Thus, after the completion of the construction, the Istanbul Canal will take over the functions of an integrator of tourist routes, providing comprehensive work of three projects: Galataport in Karakoy (Karakyoj) - port in the historical center of Istanbul, cruise port in Yenikapi (Jenikapi) - at the entrance to the Bosphorus from the Sea of Marmara and the new airport of Istanbul. The Third airport should provide investment in the Istanbul Canal, and the new cruise port in Yenikapi should create favorable conditions for investmentand growth of cruise tourism7. The Istanbul Canal should be built in 2023 - to the 100th anniversary of the Turkish Republic.
Fig. 1
The latest option of the route for Canal Istanbul
Source: URL: http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/ekonomi/istanbulun-19-ilcesi-adali-olacak-6-kopru-ile-bir-birine-baglanacak-40719953
5 Petrov E. Chem pahnet mechta Erdogana. Turciya reshila nachat' samuyu grandioznuyu strojku v svoej istorii.URL: http://fellowtraveler.ru/kanal-stambul-budushhij-turisticheskij-centr.
6 The current Ataturk airport will be closed after the full commissioning of the new airport (in 2028).
7 Kanal Stambul i novye ob"ekty infrastruktury.URL: http://fellowtraveler.ru/kanal-stambul-budushhij-turisticheskij-centr.
The route for Canal Istanbul
For the first time the route for Istanbul Canal was announced in 2011. It was planned to build to the North-West of the Bosphorus, to the West of the city of Silivri (in Turkish Thrace), as the areas located closer to Istanbul densely populated8. Nevertheless, strong public criticism of the project, especially from environmentalists forced the government of Turkey to change the previous version9. At the end of February 2015, some changes were made to the project. In February 2016, it was decided that the new route should go much to the West of the original route. In mid-April 2017 Ahmet Arslan said that his Ministry has begun to develop a final version of the route. On January 15, 2018, the head of the Ministry of transport and Maritime communications announced the final version of the route. «We will go through Kucukcekmece and Sazlidere reservoir to the Black sea to the South of the Terkos dam» - quoted by the Anatolia News Agency10.Thus, part of the city will be separated from the rest of Istanbul, turning into «Turkish Manhattan». 19 of the 35 districts of Istanbul will be on the island. This is the historic center of the city.
Fig.2
The initial (on left) and the latest (on right) options of the route for Canal Istanbul
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Source: URL: https://www.turantoday.com/2018/01/kanal-istanbul.html
According to Arslan, the choice of the final version was carefully worked out and decided after a thorough study of five alternative options (see Fig. 3). The
8 Turciya postroit kanal v obhod Bosfora «The Associated Press», SSHA, 28 aprelya 2011. URL: http:// imperiya. by/news.html?id=64311.
9 Bridges to be built first in Kanal Istanbul project. URL: https://www.dailysabah.com/economy/ 2017/04/12/ bridges-to-be-built-first-in-kanal-istanbul-project
10 Turciya sozdast Kyuchyukchekmedzhijskij proliv.URL: http://vestikavkaza.ru/news/Turtsiya-sozdast-Kyuchyukchekmedzhskiy-proliv.html.
routes have not been announced. The uncertainty the route for Canal Istanbul has repeatedly caused massive land speculation, leading to the assumption that the real reason for the secrecy of the route was the desire of the State Housing Agency (TOKI) to extract additional profits11.
Fig.3
Alternative routes for Canal Istanbul (option № 4 - the latest version of the route)
Source: URL: http://i.hurimg.com/i/hurriyet/75/0x0/5a5c5e770f254426b800a5d6
To date, a detailed project of the route is known in general. The first seven kilometers of the route will be laid through Kucukcekmece, 3.1 kilometers of the route will be laid through the village of Avcilar (Avdzhilar), 6.5 km through the village of Basaksehir (Bashakshekhir). The main the 28.6-mile part of the route will pass through the village of Arnavutkoy (Arnavutkyoj)12.The 12-kilometer part the route for Istanbul Canal will be laid through the Sazlidere dam, through areas Altinsehir (Altynshekhir) and district Sahintepe to Durusu (near the Black sea, to the East of lake Terkos). At least 1 km of the route will pass through the forest. The Canal severely affected residential area Sahintepe, home to 35,000 people13. Of the 45 km of the route, 23 km will belong to the state (construction is expected to be carried out on a mixed model «construction-operation-transfer»)14. About 115 million cubic meters of land will be excavated. The excavated land will be
11 According to the newspaper Cumhurriyet, after the announcement of the final version of the route, the investment company Emlak Konut Real Estate Investment Trust (a subsidiary of TOKI) posted a map of 33 housing projects on its website.
12 Route of contentious Kanal Istanbul project finalized. URL: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/route-of-contentious-kanal-istanbul-project-finalized-123664.
13 «Kanal istanbul» hazir: ihale sureci ba§ladi, sondaj ^ali§masi ign ilk kazma vuruldu. URL: http://www.diken. com.tr /kanal-istanbul-hazir-ihale-sureci-basladi-sondaj-calismasi-icin-ilk-kazma-vuruldu/
14 «Construction-operation-transfer» scheme (Build - Operate - Transfer, BOT) is an agreement under which the investor undertakes to finance, carry out the construction, operation and maintenance of an infrastructure facility (airport, port, power plant, etc.) for a certain period of time before its transfer to the state. The term of such an agreement is usually sufficient to allow the investor to recoup the construction costs at the expense of the tariff charged during the operation of the facility.
used to create three groups of artificial Islands in the Sea of Marmara. The area of the first group will be about 186 hectares, the second - 155 hectares, and the third - 104 hectares. The remaining unused land will be used for agriculture15, as well as for the construction of a new coastal zone to the East of lake Terkos (this measure should prevent the formation of landslides after the Canal has been dug). Within the project the cargo ports (the length of the port in the Black Sea will be 4.8 km) and a logistics center (an area of 500 hectares) will be built in the Sea of Marmara and the Black sea. The Third Istanbul airport will be connected to the Istanbul Canal by railway. In addition, two berths for 200 and 860 yachts will be built on the shore of Lake Basaksehir16. It is also planned to build six bridges, including for railway transport, and six additional bridges for the passage of wild animals. Emergency pools, beacons and waiting areas will be created in the Istanbul Canal17.
Fig. 4
Six projected land and railway bridges for the Canal Istanbul
Source: URL: http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/ekonomi/istanbulun-19-ilcesi-adali-olacak-6-kopru-ile-bir-birine-baglanacak-40719953
15 Turkey reveals route for new canal to ease Bosporus shipping. By Ali Kucukgocmen.URL: https://www.reuters. com/article/us-turkey-canal/turkey-reveals-route-for-new-canal-to-ease-bosphorus-shipping-idUSKBN1F422I..
16 Kanal istanbul» hazir: ihale sureci ba§ladi, sondaj ^ali§masi ign ilk kazma vuruldu. URL: http://www. diken. com.tr/ kanal-istanbul-hazir-ihale-sureci-basladi-sondaj-calismasi-icin-ilk-kazma-vuruldu/.
17 Last details about the Istanbul Canal Project. URL: http://www.rimainvestment.com/blog/32/281/last-details-about-the-istanbul-canal-project.html
Seismic risks, the problem of resettlement and archaeological excavations
The government of Turkey intend to hold a tender for the construction of the Canal in 2018. At the time of the announcement of the final option the route for Canal Istanbul, «pilot» excavations were carried out. Arslan said that 17000 m of drilling had been completed by the end of 201718. He assured that by the beginning 2018, all work in the construction zone, including the assessment of the threat of earthquakes, tsunamis, wind and wave activity, as well as geological surveys ,was completed. The government promises that «dredging» will not affect groundwater (at one time it was even reported that there is no on the route)19. Nevertheless, scientists-geologists - academician Hakan Alp and Dr. Haluk Eyidogan reported the presence of three «active» fault lines in the area of Lake Kucukcekmece (with rock displacement along the fault surface) and warned of serious danger in case of earthquakes. The route is also under the threat of earthquakes in the case of excavations works in the area of Lake Kucukcekmece, since at this section of the route it is planned to withdraw up to 3 million tons of land.20. The Istanbul Canal is planned in one of the most dangerous seismic zones and geologist's warnings cannot be ignored.
Another problem is archaeological excavations. On the shores of Lake Kucukcekmece is an archaeological «treasure»: Batania- the ruins of an ancient Byzantine port city. In case of construction of the Canal Istanbul, the rest of Batania may be under water. To the North of the Kucuk9ekmece along the planned route is still more ancient archaeological site: cave Yarimburgaz - the territory of one of the oldest settlements of Europe21. What will happen next with these cultural monuments - is not known. How the problem of resettlement of people from settlements on the proposed route will be solved is also unknown. Ahmet Arslan said that the issue of the fate of the villages of Arnavutkoy (Arnavutkyoj) and Durusu, located on the route for Canal Istanbul, will be put on the agenda. Some landowners may not be lucky if their lands are in the construction zone.The government may confiscate their lands if the owners are not satisfied with the price of compensation22. Therefore, the attitude of the population of «problem» villages to the Istanbul project is ambiguous. On the one hand, according to Turkish media,
18 Kanal istanbul» hazir: ihale sureci ba§ladi, sondaj ^ali§masi ign ilk kazma vuruldu. URL: http://www. diken. com.tr/ kanal-istanbul-hazir-ihale-sureci-basladi-sondaj-calismasi-icin-ilk-kazma-vuruldu/
19 Transportation minister unveils final 45-kilometer route of Kanal Istanbul project. URL: https: //www. dailysabah. com/business/2018/01/15/transportation-minister-unveils-final-45-kilometer-route-of-kanal-istanbul-project.
20 Kanal istanbul Projesi'nin guzergahinda 3 fay gikti.URL: http://www.denizhaber.com.tr/kanal-istanbul-projesinin-guzergahinda-3-fay-cikti-haber-80257.
21 Outdoing Panama: Turkey's «Crazy» Plan to Build an Istanbul Canal. By James Helicke// ORIGINS Current Events in Historical Perspective. Vol. 4, issue 11 - august 2011.URL: http://origins.osu.edu/article/outdoing-panama-turkey-s-crazy-plan-build-istanbul-canal/page/0/1.
22 Petrov E. Chem pahnet mechta Erdogana. Turciya reshila nachat' samuyu grandioznuyu strojku v svoej istorii. URL: http://fellowtraveler.ru/kanal-stambul-budushhij-turisticheskij-centr.
a number of residents living along the way of the Istanbul Canal protest against the construction, fearing the liquidation of their homes. During the meeting, held on March 27, 2018, on the initiative of the official authorities, clashes occurred between part of the local population and the police. On the other hand, the inhabitants of the village of Durusu, without objecting to the construction itself, said that they will not leave their homes23. Thus, litigations will be inevitable.
Environmental risks and the problem of fresh water sources
As already noted, since the launch of the Canal Istanbul, large tankers will not be able to use the water space of the Bosphorus for navigation. The waters of the Bosphorus will be filled with cruise ships and yachts. This will significantly reduce the pollution level of the Strait. However, independent environmentalists speak with one voice about the harm that the Canal will cause to the environment, about how the water environment of the Marmara and Black Sea will change, about seismic danger. Many experts doubt the feasibility of building an artificial waterway in the presence of natural Bosphorus24. Experts have every reason to say so, since ecology is the «Achilles» heel of the Istanbul project. The final 45 km route of the Istanbul Canal will pass from the Sea of Marmara through Lake Kucukcekmece to the Black Sea, i. e., the Canal's route lies through woods, fields, and sources of fresh water.
The Turkish official authorities pay attention to the creation of additional «green» zones, environmental assessments and a thorough study of the route. Nevertheless, the opponents of the Istanbul canal are not satisfied with the government's own environmental expertise, as the TOKI - the government agency for housing development, interested in the positive evaluation of the project, is entrusted to investigate soils along the planned route25. In December 2017, the Istanbul Chamber of environmental engineers demanded that the Ministry of transport publish a full report on the environmental impact of the Canal Istanbul. Despite this, the full report has not yet been published. Arslan stated that his Ministry had already reviewed all environmental and climatic factors, including the influence of winds and deep-sea currents at the entrance to the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara26.
Environmentalists claim the project will destroy the last forests North of Istanbul, which are often called the «lungs» of Istanbul27. The Istanbul chamber of geological
23 Qokkonu§ulan o koy havadan goruntulendi! Yatirimci akin etti.URL: http://www.hurriyet.com.tr /ekonomi/ cok-konusulan-o-koy-havadan-goruntulendi-yatirimci-akin-etti-40712447.
24 Saetov I.G. Ostrov Stambul. Novyj Bosfor - nacional'nyj proekt Erdogana dlya «novoj Turcii».URL: https:// www.novayagazeta.ru/articles/2018/02/05/75391-ostrov-stambul.
25 Istanbul turkey grand canal plan RecepTayyip Erdogan. URL: http://www. politico.eu/article/istanbul-turkey-grand-canal-plan-recep-tayyip-erdogan/&prev=search.
26 Kanal istanbul: Erdogan's drive to build a new strait. ByEvaGrey.URL: https://www.ship-technology.com/ features/kanal-istanbul-erdogans-drive-build-new-strait/
27 The Canal itself will only partially affect the «Northern forest». Nevertheless, it is planned that the Istanbul's Third airport will be built in the heart of the forest (between the villages of Yenikoy (Enikyoj) and Akpinar). Dozens of lakes and natural forest environment can be destroyed to free the area for the airport to be connected to the mouth of the Canal Istanbul.
engineers believes that the initial report did not take into account a number of important factors that made the project unviable. According to this organization, the project can seriously affect the climate and balance of minerals in the Black Sea and surrounding areas and will deplete the oxygen level in the Sea of Marmara28. This was stated by the Chairman of the Istanbul branch of the Chamber of architects Akif Burak Atlar, who noted that from an environmental point of view, the Canal does not make sense, because it will only strengthen the uncontrolled growth of urban suburbs to the detriment of the environment and local population29. Members of professional and public associations were also categorical in their assessments. The congress of these organizations was held in Istanbul and in the municipality of Arnavutkoy on March 27, 201830. According to the general opinion, the Canal Istanbul project is big plans without environmental assessment.
Closely related to the problem of ecology is the issue of water sources. According to the National Geographic magazine, to date about 40% of water in Istanbul comes from the European side of the city. However, this part of the city will suffer greatly from the construction of the Canal and the Third airport31. In this case, laying the route Kucukchekmece-Sazlidere-Durusu can completely destroy the sources of freshwater to the West of Istanbul. The Sazlidere dam, located to the North of lake Kucukcekmece, will disappear because it will be filled with water after the launch of the Canal. About 13 districts of Istanbul take water from this lake. Meanwhile, earlier drought has repeatedly been the cause of water scarcity in Istanbul. The dry summer of 2008 depleted the city's water reservoirs to 25%, and the drought in 2014 to 29%.Thus, the Canal will fill the sources of fresh water, the exhaustion of which to date has already reached a critical level32.
Conclusion
In this article, the author deliberately tried to avoid political and economic assessments of the Canal Istanbul- one of the most politically engaged project of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The study of the geographical aspects of the Canal Istanbul project shows that the final route is not yet fully developed.The final report on the environmental impact of the Canal Istanbul has not yet been
28 Turkey reveals route for new canal to ease Bosporus shipping. By Ali Kucukgocmen.URL: https://www.reuters. com/article/us-turkey-canal/turkey-reveals-route-for-new-canal-to-ease-bosphorus-shipping-idUSKBN1F422I.
29 Turkey Grand Canal plan Recep Tayyip Erdogan. URL: http://www.politico.eu/article/istanbul-turkey-grand-canal-plan-recep-tayyip-erdogan/&prev=search.
30 «Qilgin proje»: istanbul'daki ta§ ocaklarinin 40 kati buyuklugunde kazi yapilacak. By Rifat Dogan. URL: http:// http://www.diken.com.tr/cilgin-proje-istanbuldaki-tas-ocaklarinin-40-kati-buyuklugunde-kazi-yapilacak/
31 Istanbul's megaprojects may threaten the city itself - National Geographic/ URL: https://ahvalnews.com/ environment/istanbuls-megaprojects-may-threaten-city-itself-national-geographic.
32 Many sources of water will become unsuitable for use thanks to the construction of a new airport. The fate of Lake Terkos (Durusu), which has been a source of fresh water for Istanbul for almost 122 years, is particularly tragic in this regard. In 2006, Lake Terkos was declared a protected area. According to Ahmet Arslan, this traditional freshwater reservoir will be preserved. Nevertheless, according to the Ministry of Environment of Turkey, the construction of the Third Airport really threatens the existence of the lake.
drawn up, the issue of the archaeological heritage has not been resolved, the issues of resettlement of inhabitants of those areas that will be flooded, as well as the mechanism of compensation payments have not been worked out. Overpopulated Istanbul is already experiencing problems with drinking water, but the replacement of traditional reserves of fresh water with new sources at the government level is not even discussed. The prospect of expanding the city through the creation of artificial territories (three Islands in the Marmara) seems questionable, since the idea of using excavated soil for the construction of the Third airport in Istanbul has already been announced, but has not been realized. Earthworks on the chosen route - a seismically dangerous zone, can provoke uncontrolled movement of the earth's surface and this is the first thing that the Turkish authorities should pay attention to. The last section of the route (Durusu-Karaburun) is not developed. In official statements (as of June 2018), Durusu is listed as the last section of the route (see Fig. 1).
Thus, the analysis of the Canal's geography leads to the conclusion that the last version of the route for Canal Istanbul is presented in a «raw» form - the situation is typical for the Canal Istanbul project as a whole. The question of whether the Turks will be able to correct the obvious shortcomings in the project of the route (if it will be the last) remains unanswered. Until the cherished date - 2023, there are only five years and if the political will of President Recep Erdogan again will prevail over the arguments of experts, the Turks along with the additional waterway (if it is built) can get additional problems for themselves.
