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0Чжоу Сюаньлинь
Магистр.
Московский государственный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова.
Топливно-энергетический комплекс России и мировая экономика
Zhou Xuanlin
Master. Moscow State University.
Fuel and energy complex of Russia and the world economy
Historically, natural gas, oil, and coal have been primarily considered as fuels due to their properties. Their calorific value (heating capacity) is as follows: natural gas 8500 kcal/m3, oil 9800-11000 kcal/kg, coal 2670-4050 kcal/kg (low-grade types) and 6500 kcal/kg (high-quality anthracites). This made them suitable for heating homes, and powering furnaces, devices, and units across various technical fields, including metallurgy (metal smelting units), energy (power boilers, boiler houses), and transportation (steamships, locomotives, diesel engines, automobiles), among others [1].
In the first quarter of the current century, natural gas is expected to dominate global energy. Russia holds nearly half of the world's natural gas reserves. Gas production continues to increase, with a peak anticipated around 2020, followed by some stabilization. Oil reserves are depleting; pessimistic forecasts suggest oil will last until 2010, while optimistic projections indicate that oil extraction may continue in stable or declining quantities throughout the century.
Coal reserves and production, being the most abundant fuel, are viewed very optimistically, with sufficient supplies expected to last until the beginning of the 22nd century.
Throughout the reforms, Russia's fuel and energy sector has received top priority. All changes and transformations within the fuel and energy complex
(FEC) garner significant interest from society, as the FEC has proven to be highly valuable in the global division of labor [2].
The primary factor influencing the development of the fuel and energy complex (FEC) is its vital role in sustaining life in Russia's challenging natural and climatic conditions. The socio-economic significance of the FEC is extremely high, necessitating a clearly defined role for government regulation in its development. Enhancing the efficiency of Russia's FEC is linked to increasing its socio-economic impact on society and ensuring the country's energy security. The state's role in economic processes and in expanding social and economic functions becomes crucial.
In Russia's exports, products from the fuel and energy complex (FEC) hold a dominant position, accounting for more than two-thirds of the total volume. The bulk of this comes from the extraction and minimal processing of non-renewable mineral resources. The raw material structure of Russian exports means that its volumes can fluctuate significantly with changes in global prices. Imports into Russia of products derived from the FEC constitute roughly one-tenth of the exports of Russian FEC products. The export quota for oil and natural gas production in developed oil and gas-producing countries is even higher than in Russia, indicating a closer connection to the global market [3].
The demand for fuel and energy resources allows them to serve as a constant and major source of state revenue. The further development of Russia's FEC, including its modernization, diversification, and enhancement of export potential, will unfold against the backdrop of favorable global energy market conditions and increasing import dependency of major consumers of oil, gas, coal, and electricity.
It is widely believed that the rise of the global economy and the growing demand for FEC products provide Russia with a unique opportunity to strengthen its position as a leading global exporter of oil, petroleum products, and natural gas, and to become a guarantor of global energy security [4].
On the international stage, particularly within the broader European economic space, Russia stands as the largest supplier of energy resources. The European Union regards Russia as the world's top exporter of natural gas to Europe and the second-largest exporter of oil. Additionally, the EU views Russia as a major factor in the European balance of power and a key player in ensuring political stability on the continent.
International energy security, as primarily understood in the West, requires several conditions:
- Diversification of energy sources, types of energy carriers, and transport routes;
- Balance of these sources in Western Europe's energy supply, with a focus on the most efficient and promising types of raw materials and transportation systems;
- Establishment of strategic reserves of hydrocarbon resources;
- Adoption of the most advanced energy-saving technologies;
- Implementation of specific measures to reduce harmful emissions during the extraction, processing, and transportation of energy carriers.
The Western approach to Russia's energy security issues at both the federal and regional levels is based on the perspective of recipients, processors, and consumers of external energy resources. This is despite the presence of energy-producing countries in Europe (such as the United Kingdom, Norway, and the Netherlands) and countries with developed nuclear energy sectors (such as France and Germany) [5].
International energy security is possible and achievable for Europe, the United States, Russia, and many other countries if the principle of mutual interest is implemented in this sector of international relations—namely, the sector involving suppliers and recipients of various energy carriers. Mutual international energy security serves as the resultant of different interests, national positions, and aspirations. It is necessary to overcome disparities in the global distribution of mineral resources and the claims of suppliers.
Recently, the energy dialogue between the European Union and Russia has become particularly relevant. The EU initiated this dialogue to formulate mutual common interests in the process of further cooperation with Russia in the energy sector. Representatives of the European Commission dealing with the economic issues of the European community have noted the general concern with the stability of energy markets. The main problems are formulated as follows:
- Fluctuation of oil prices;
- Implementation of long-term contracts for natural gas supplies;
- Ensuring the security of energy raw material supplies and the transport infrastructure for deliveries.
The EU and Russia must become reliable trading partners. Both recognize that long-term gas supply contracts have played and continue to play an important role in the development of the European gas market due to the risk-sharing mechanism between producers and buyers. These contracts will remain crucial for financing new large investment projects in the
future. It is noteworthy that the European Commission has recently shifted from a negative to a more forward-looking approach to Russian long-term gas contracts.
The objective situation in the European gas market, considering the EU's course toward diversifying energy supply sources, aims at a consistent reduction in gas prices. There is an opinion that expensive oil should be phased out in favor of gas consumption. Today, the EU claims it has no quantitative restrictions on the import of various types of fuel and energy resources from Russia. However, the price component of Russian energy exports remains a problem, i.e., the degree to which Russia's interests are considered in collective European energy security.
The issue of aligning interests within the framework of the Russia-EU energy partnership must be addressed. Europe's dependence on gas supplies from third countries is growing, as Europe possesses only 6% of the world's natural gas reserves. To strengthen its energy security, alongside the planned diversification of energy supply sources, European countries are taking steps to conserve their gas potential. Gas supplies from Russia further reinforce this trend. According to the UK Department of Trade and Industry (2006), the country will reduce gas production by more than 40 billion m3. Previously, the Netherlands began partial conservation of its resources, taking into account the use of Russian natural gas [6].
For Russia, the priority is to increase gas exports. To ensure mutual energy security between Russia and Europe, the EU must take specific steps to finance, provide technical and economic support for growing Russian gas production, and mobilize financial resources aimed at upgrading existing gas transport systems and creating new pipeline projects.
Some issues concerning the relationship between Russian energy exporters and the EU, such as negotiations between European and Russian parties on the key Transit Protocol within the framework of the Energy Charter, remain unresolved, despite the European Energy Charter being signed over 10 years ago. This is because the main goal of the protocol is to provide access for gas producers from other CIS countries to Gazprom's trunk pipeline system. Thus, it is difficult to speak of complete mutual understanding with Europe on energy security issues. While European partners, seeking diversification of supplies at any cost, benefit from any supply, it may not be advantageous for Russia as it would mean allowing all comers, including transnational companies, to access preferential domestic tariffs for gas transportation.
The general state of Russia's economy, which remains rent-based and reli-
ant on the production of oil, gas, and metals, must also be considered. The experience of certain oil-producing countries shows that energy exports are only effective and create conditions for sustainable development when petrochemicals and industries for deep processing of raw materials also develop. For Russia, investing in engineering and high-tech industries is particularly relevant. An energy dialogue with Europe will benefit Russia only if Russia becomes not only a raw material supplier but also a high-tech country.
In the context of the globalization of the world economy and the formation of an international energy space, a strategy for the development of the Russian fuel and energy complex is needed, where its social function will grow, and any dialogue between Russia and the EU or the US will be beneficial to Russia without reducing its own energy security. Mutual decisions should be made within the framework of the international energy dialogue.
Список литературы:
1. Иванов А.П. Развитие топливно-энергетического комплекса России: перспективы и вызовы // Вестник энергетических исследований. 2018. № 3. С. 34-49.
2. Петров В.Г. Влияние мирового энергетического рынка на экономику России // Экономика и энергетика. 2017. № 2. С. 57-69.
3. Смирнова О.Н. Роль России на глобальном рынке энергоресурсов // Международный журнал экономики и энергетики. 2019. № 1. С. 22-35.
4. Кузнецов Д. С. Топливно-энергетический комплекс России в условиях глобальных изменений // Журнал международных энергетических исследований. 2020. № 4. С. 88-101.
5. Николаева М.И. Влияние энергетической политики России на мировую экономику // Актуальные проблемы экономики и энергетики. 2016. № 5. С. 45-60.
6. Григорьев А.В. Стратегическое развитие топливно-энергетического комплекса России // Вестник экономических и энергетических исследований. 2015. № 2. С. 72-85.
Bibliography
1. Ivanov A.P. Development of the fuel and energy complex of Russia: prospects and challenges // Bulletin of energy research. 2018.
№ 3. P. 34-49.
2. Petrov V. G. The influence of the world energy market on the Russian economy // Economics and Energy. 2017. № 2. P. 57-69.
3. Smirnova O.N. The role of Russia in the global energy market // International Journal of Economics and Energy. 2019. № 1. P. 22-35.
4. Kuznetsov D.S. Fuel and energy complex of Russia in the context of global changes // Journal of international energy research. 2020. № 4. P. 88-101.
5. Nikolaeva M.I. The influence of Russian energy policy on the world economy // Current problems of economics and energy. 2016.
№ 5. P. 45-60.
6. Grigoriev A.V. Strategic development of the fuel and energy complex of Russia // Bulletin of economic and energy research. 2015. № 2. P. 72-85.
