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12FORMATION OF PROGRAMS FOR THE MODERNIZATION OF ECONOMIC SECTORS AND REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EIGHTH
TECHNOLOGICAL ORDER
Glushchenko V.
Doctor of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor, Moscow, Russia
Abstract
The subject of the article is formation of programs for the modernization of economic sectors and regions of the country during the development of the eighth technological order (ETO); the object of the article is the 8th technological order in the economy of the country; the purpose of the work is to reduce the risks of sustainable development of the economy and society during the formation of the eighth technological order; to achieve this goal, the following tasks are solved: synthesis of a systematic and descriptive model of the 8th technological order (ETO); formation of sectoral system models of scientific and technological development (fuel and energy complex, military-technical sphere, country region); formation of a project model of organizations' activities; comparative analysis of process and subject models of organization functioning; analysis of factors and methods of synthesis of innovative ideas during the formation of the 8th technological order; comparative analysis of three conceptual approaches in the modernization of the economy (theory of technological orders; ecosystem approach; concepts of convergent (nature-like) technologies); description of methods for modeling innovative projects; study of methods for forming an innovative project business plan; scientific methods in the article are historical analysis; theory of technological orders, theory of forecasting and planning, heuristic synthesis, modeling, logical and structural analysis of projects, expert assessments; scientific novelty of the article is determined by: development of methods for forecasting the processes of modernization of economic sectors and regions of the country; comparative analysis of three concepts of modernization (theory of technological orders; ecosystem approach; the concept of the development of nature-like technologies); the development of a conceptual approach to the modernization of large technological systems within the framework of the theory of technological orders
Keywords: country region, economic sector, forecasting, modernization, system model, business plan, synthesis, analysis, idea, company, eighth technological order,
Introduction. The relevance of the study is determined by the importance of improving the methods of forecasting the directions of development and improving the management system for the development of the eighth technological order (ETO). Management of the development of ETO industry areas includes the implementation of the following management functions: planning of industry innovations; organization of innovation activities in the industry; motivation of industry personnel; control of the results of innovation activities. Forecasting usually precedes planning. Forecasting can be exploratory (determination of development goals) and normative (determination of ways to achieve goals). Improving the effectiveness of innovative projects can be achieved by: forecasting optimal goals and ways of development of industries; synthesis of effective ideas; formation of a conceptual approach to innovation; transition of organizations to a project model of activity; improvement of business planning of innovative projects and other innovations. The transition to the use of the project model of the activity of enterprises (organizations) will have a positive impact on the implementation of the function of organizing innovative projects during the development of ETO. Such a transition to the project model of organizations (enterprises) will increase the validity of motivation and control of the results of innovative activities in the organization.
The hypothesis of this article is the assumption that: forecasting of industry scientific and technological progress based on system models, development of the project approach, implementation of the project model of organizations' activities and improvement of the
methodology of business planning of innovative projects during the development of ETO will ensure the sustainability of development and increase the economic efficiency of innovative projects of enterprises in the forecast period (2021-2040).
The purpose of the work is to reduce the risks of sustainable development of the economy and society during the formation of the eighth technological order.
To achieve this goal, the following tasks are solved:
- synthesis of a systematic and descriptive model of the 8th technological order (ETO);
- formation of sectoral system models of scientific and technological development (fuel and energy complex, military-technical sphere, country region);
- formation of a project model of organizations' activities; comparative analysis of process and subject models of organization functioning;
- analysis of factors and methods of synthesis of innovative ideas during the formation of the 8th technological order;
- comparative analysis of three conceptual approaches in the modernization of the economy (theory of technological orders; ecosystem approach; concepts of convergent (nature-like) technologies);
- description of methods for modeling innovative projects; study of methods for forming an innovative project business plan.
The object of the article is the 8th technological order in the economy of the country.
The subject of the article is formation of programs for the modernization of economic sectors and regions
of the country during the development of the eighth technological order (ETO).
The study of the content of scientific publications on the topic of this work suggests the following. During the development of the 8th technological order, much attention is paid to forecasting scientific and technological progress [1, pp. 1233-12372]. To predict scientific and technological development, patent analysis is used [2, pp. 63-79]. This approach reflects the method of induction in forecasting scientific and technological progress. The methodology of forecasting scientific and technological progress in high-tech engineering is being actively developed [3, pp. 28-38]. At the same time, the methods of business planning in the activities of organizations are being improved [4, pp. 135-138]. An important role is given to the study of the conceptual approach to the study of projects [5, pp. 80-87].
The intensification of innovations during the development of the eighth technological order is considered as the basis for: the formation of a project model of firms' activities [6, p. 15- 33]; the development of a project form of higher technical education [7, p. 7-15].
Improving the efficiency of innovative projects in ETO can be achieved by: more accurate forecasting of the directions of development of economic sectors; by developing a methodology for synthesizing effective ideas of innovative projects of companies; using the methodology of comprehensive modernization of economic sectors. The task of increasing the effectiveness of innovative ideas is solved using the theory of solving inventive problems [8, p. 2; 9, p. 2].
Sources of innovative ideas can be: a description of the real success stories of individuals [10, p. 2]; the use of the marketing paradigm in the activities of organizations [11, p. 2]. To ensure the growth of efficiency of processes of formation programs of development of innovative projects using the new scientific field called "systems engineering" [12, p. 207-210; 13, p. 17-22; 14, pp. 430-439]. In the process of analyzing innovative projects, they perform: pre-investment analysis and research of innovative projects [15, pp. 99103]; modeling for the purpose of system ranking of innovative projects of the corporation [16, pp. 114-118].
An important direction for improving the organization of innovation activities can be recognized as the development of technological platforms and clusters in the economy [17, p. 5].
During the development of a new technological order, the role of synthesis of new conceptual scientific theories increases. Such theories create additional opportunities for an integrated approach in the process of modernization of industries and regions [17, p.5; 18, p. 54-63; 19, p. 4-16]. Comparative studies of the process and project models of the functioning of enterprises were carried out in work [6, pp. 15-33].
The analysis shows that promising areas for generating innovative ideas during the ETO period can be: the concept of nature-like (convergent) technologies [20; 21]; development of methodology for designing and creating ecosystems [22, pp. 23-24].
An important part of the successful implementation of an innovative project is the formation of an effective project team (project team) [23; pp. 272-287]. In the process of development ETO important can have: the formation of the theory of management of this process and education policy [24,pp. 30 - 46]; development of a strategic approach to management of innovative projects [25, p. 2]; formation of an effective strategy and innovation policy for firms [26,p. 2]; development of methodology of labour Economics and personnel motivation system in the innovation activities of firms [27; p. 2; 28, p. 2]. It is important to have methods that allow you to evaluate the project team based on the results of this project [29; p. 7-16; 30, p. 18-24]. This will increase the efficiency of competitive selection procedures for employees in the innovation project team [31; 32, pp. 27-40]. Research shows that mental conflicts can also be a source of risk in innovative projects [33, pp. 12-26].
The development of new systems of professional and social relations (institutions) in ETO should be recognized as an important part of the process of formation of a new technological order [34, pp. 554-563].
The effectiveness of management decisions leads to a reduction in the risks of the development of a new technological order [35, p. 2; 36]. In the process of innovation, it is necessary to assess the risks of innovative projects of firms [37, p. 2; 38, p. 12- 17].
An important role in the development of ETO can be played by: the formation of a system of innovative entrepreneurship and innovation infrastructure [39, p. 25-33]; improvement of the methodology for the development and implementation of innovative projects [40, p. 21-34].
At the same time, the process of ETO development has an impact on all aspects of the economy and the life of global society, including the development of neuro-geopolitics [41, pp. 54-63].
The analysis of scientific papers carried out in this article testifies to the relevance of the chosen research topic.
Method. A source of risk for the sustainable development of a company (region, branch of economy, society) may be: moral aging of the technological basis of the branch of economy or region of the country; violation of proportions between elements of socio-economic development; moral aging and loss of competitiveness of manufactured products; structural restructuring of the economy and markets; lack of adequacy of institutions of the essence of ETO technologies and others. The development of ETO increases this risk. The extent of the damage from such risks is indicated by the fact that major geopolitical risks arise at times of crisis. At the same time, the crises themselves accompany the change of technological patterns.
It is possible to consider the risk of sustainable development at the level of: global -geopolitical; state; economic sector; region of the country; corporation, etc.
It is possible to reduce the risk of sustainable development by anticipating the situation and taking measures: preventing the growth of imbalances in the
development of economic sectors and regions; aimed at the development of innovative activities; by taking adequate measures to restructure socio-economic relations and others.
The development of system industry models of scientific and technological development within the framework of the theory of technological structures can be a tool for forecasting the directions of development of these industries.
Forecasting the directions of development and a conceptual approach to the development of a new technological order increases the efficiency of managing the transition to ETO. The conceptual approach makes it possible to synthesize a set of innovative tasks, the coordinated solution of which makes it possible to ensure the sustainability of development and competitiveness of the ETO subject.
At the same time, in 2021 there is still no unified concept in the field of scientific support - the theory of technological orders. In particular, there is no such consensus on the issue of names and identification of numbers of technological orders. A significant number of researchers believe that the way that develops in the period from 2010 to 2040 should be considered the 6th technological order. Such periodization of technological structures covers only the phase of capitalist development. But the process of technological development has existed before. On this basis, it is necessary to conduct a periodization of technological patterns for the entire period of human civilization development.
Experts believe that the creation of a new type of propulsion system may be a factor in the periodization of technological orders. Analysis of the pre-capitalist period of development has shown that it is possible to distinguish such periods of time: firstly, it is the period of time associated with the use of horse-drawn traction; secondly, the period of time associated with the invention of windmills and water mills. On this basis (when considering the entire process of technological development of mankind), the new technological order can be called the eighth technological order (ETO).
In this paper, we will agree to call the use of horse-drawn traction by a person the first technological order. This technological order covers a period of time, starting from 2000 BC and ending with the 9th century AD. The second technological order is connected with the invention of windmills and water mills by man, which used the power of water and wind. This technological order extends to the period from the 9th century to 1770. The third (when considering the entire history of development) technological order covers the period from 1770 to 1830. This third technological order was called "textile machines". The fourth technological order, which is called the "steam engine" lasted from 1830 to 1880. The fifth technological order existed in the period from 1880 to 1930. This technological mode was called "electric motor". The sixth technological order (mode) is often called the "internal combustion engine". However, the study of the history of technology shows the following. The internal combustion engine actually appeared much earlier. The history of technology says that the serial production of internal combustion engines begins in the period 1900-1910. So the
plane of the Wright brothers was released in 1903. A production car "Ford T" with an internal combustion engine was released in 1908. Thus, it can be argued that in the period 1990-1910 there were already sufficiently advanced internal combustion engines. Therefore, the fifth technological order should be called: "electric motor and internal combustion engine". At the same time, there is every reason to call the sixth technological order: "nuclear reactor". This is due to the fact that the nuclear reactor (as a source of electricity) appeared in the mid-1950s. The same technological structure accounts for the creation of computers. The first fairly complete computer analog appeared in 1941. Computers are the largest not only technical, but also civiliza-tional phenomenon. The advent of computers has changed the existing world. The creation of computers falls on the 6th technological order. This technological structure includes a period of time from the 1930s to the 1970s. In this article, the 6th technological order will be called "nuclear reactor and computers".
The seventh technological order is devoted to the development of microprocessor technology and microelectronics. The seventh technological order covers the period from 1970 to 2010. The eighth technological order is called "nanotechnology. This technological structure will be characterized by: neurotechnologies, nano-technologies; information technologies; digitalization technologies and more.
Descriptive model of ETO. It can be predicted that in the fields of science, education and innovation, ETO will be characterized by the following features: advanced development of the service sector; intensification of innovation; acceleration of scientific and technological progress will lead to the integration of fundamental and applied science; development of neuromarketing and neuromanagement in the field of management; science, innovation and education are recognized as key resources for the development of society; advanced development will receive the development of natural-like technologies; ecosystems will be created; management in science and education will become more and more distributed; the "center of gravity" when conducting research will move to small laboratories and project groups; projects will become the main organizational form of development of science and education; the science and practice of the project approach in science and education will develop, and more.
Further development of science and technology in ETO will be associated with the following trends: firstly, with an ever deeper penetration into the essence, structure and nature of the material world (nanotechnology, environmentally friendly technologies and resource-saving technologies); an ever deeper and more comprehensive study of the properties of the human brain and psyche (neurotechnology, information technology, digital technology), and others.
To determine the features of the development of ETO in various fields of activity (military, fuel and energy complex, medicine, etc.) and sectors of the economy, it can be recommended to develop sectoral system models of scientific and technological progress. These models will have a predictive property.
The system model of scientific and technological progress in the field of fuel and energy complex is reflected in Table No. 1.
Table No. 1.
_System model of the sequence of technological structures in the field of fuel and energy complex_
№ n/n Properties of technological orders /number, name of technological order, time period, Energy source energy machines New types of fuel
1. The first technological order, Horse traction, the period 2000 BC. -IX century AD; Physical strength of people and animals Horse-drawn traction firewood, coal, animal excrement,
2. The second technological order, windmill, watermill; period IX century - 1770; Wind and water energy, physical strength of animals, Sailing ships, Windmills and wa-termills firewood, coal, animal excrement,
3. The third technological order, Textile machines; Period 1770-1830; Wind and water energy, physical strength of animals, Sailing vessels, horse-drawn traction, Windmills and watermills firewood, coal, animal excrement,
4. The fourth technological order, Steam engine; period 1830-1880; Energy of the burned fuel, steam Steam engine firewood, coal, animal excrement,
5. Fifth technological order; Electric motor, Internal combustion engine; period 1880-1930; Energy of burned fuel, oil products, wind and water energy, Thermal power plants, hydroelectric power plants petroleum products
6. Sixth technological order; Nuclear reactor and computer; period 1930-1970; Nuclear energy Nuclear reactor Radioactive materials, nuclear fuel
7. Seventh technological order; microelectronics; Period 1970-2010; Solar, wind, water energy; natural gas Wind power generators, solar panels Green energy
8. The eighth technological order; Nanotechnology, nanotech-nology, IT technologies, Resource-saving technologies, etc.; Period 2010-2040; natural gas, biofuels; Solar, wind, water energy; Wind power generators, solar panels; application of intelligent technologies for energy saving Biofuels, Green energy,
Source: developed by the author
The industry system model has predictive properties and can make it possible to predict the directions of further development of the industry.
Due to the great geopolitical influence, we can talk about the need to develop the military-technical direction of the scientific theory of technological orders. This direction of the scientific theory of technological orders can study the development of military equipment and military art as a function of the periodization
of technological orders. There is reason to believe that the development of such a direction in the general theory of technological orders will increase the prognostic capabilities of this theory in geopolitics.
For the sphere of military-technical activity, specialists in this field may be asked to independently create a system model of development. Everyone can fill in the table No.2. Filling in Table No. 2 in this article has a hypothetical demonstration character.
Table No. 2.
System model of military-technical activity as a function of the sequence of technological structures
№ n/n Properties of technological structures /Number of technological order, time period, name methods of geopolitical competition, the main types of troops, The main types of military equipment, geopolitical tools The concept of warfare, forms of geopolitics
1. The first technological order, 2000 BC. -IX century AD; Horse traction Infantry, cavalry, rowing Navy Rowing vessels, shields, swords, chariots, war elephants, fortress construction Macedonian Phalanx, the art of warfare
2. Second technological order, IX century -1770; Windmill, watermill Infantry, cavalry, sailing Navy Sailing ships, shields, swords, chariots, war elephants, fortress construction Infantry combat formations, interaction with cavalry, navy
3. The third technological order, 1770-1830; Textile machines Infantry, cavalry, sailing Navy Sailing ships, cannons, guns, fortress construction Infantry combat formations, interaction with cavalry, navy
4. The fourth technological order, 1830-1880; Steam engine Infantry, cavalry, steam navy, transportation of troops by rail armored trains, cannons, guns, fortress construction Infantry combat formations, interaction with cavalry, navy
5. The fifth technological order, 1880-1930; Electric Motor, Internal Combustion Engine Armored troops, aircraft Tanks, guns, planes, construction of fortified areas The concept of tank wedges, the concept of air supremacy
6. Sixth technological order, 1930-1970; computers, rockets, atomic bomb Rocket troops Strategic nuclear missiles, submarines with missiles on board The concept of guaranteed destruction of the enemy by a retaliatory nuclear strike
7. The seventh technological order, 1970-2010; microelectronics Electronic warfare equipment, missiles flying at low altitude Strategic nuclear missiles, cruise missiles flying at low altitude The concept of guaranteed destruction of the enemy by a retaliatory nuclear strike
8. Eighth technological order, 2010-2040; Nanotechnology, nanotech-nology, IT technologies, Resource-saving technologies, etc. Economic power, attractiveness of lifestyle and culture, impact on the creation of society and the individual Global information systems, geopolitical neuromarketing, hypersonic missiles The concept of hybrid warfare, the strategy of "color revolutions", neurogeopolitics and more
Source: developed by the author
Note: filling in the tables of this article is hypothetical. Specialists are invited to fill out this table on their own.
The term "geopolitical neuromarketing" implies the use of neuromarketing methods in geopolitics. Similar tables can be developed for all fields of activity (medicine, art, social relations, etc.). Such tables (system models of human spheres of activity) are not only explanatory, but also predictive. To enhance the prognostic effect, a fourth column with the title "main directions of scientific and technological progress" can be added to these tables. The construction of such tables will make it possible to more accurately determine, predict the directions and trends in the development of the relevant spheres (industries) of human activity, and solve ETO problems.
Innovative activity in the period of time of the eighth technological order creates the need for the transition of organizations: firstly, to the project model of their functioning of organizations; secondly, there is a need for a matrix organizational structure.
At the same time, at the beginning of the 21st century in the real economy, the main model of organizations' activities is the process model of their activities. When studying this issue, it is necessary to distinguish between the process model of management of organizations and the process model of the organization's activities. The process model of management of organizations is based on the representation of the management process of the organization in the form of a continuous sequence of control actions. The process
model of organizations' activities divides the whole set of technologies into three types of technologies. The process model of organizations' activities was proposed by Henri Fayol in the 1920s [6, p. 15- 33; 7, p. 63-75].
In the structure of technological processes of enterprises A .Fayol identified the following types of processes: main production technological processes; auxiliary technological processes; supporting technological processes. The process model of organizations' activities is used in the accounting and financial management system of organizations.
In the project model of the organization's activity, the division of all activities is carried out: firstly, all the activities of the organization are divided into routine and innovative activities; secondly, all the innovative activities of the organization are presented as a set of innovative projects that this organization is implementing at the present time. Such a model of the organization's activity is considered in works [6, p. 15-33; 7, p. 63-75; 25, p. 2; 26, p. 2]. Within the framework of the project activities of organizations, the hypothesis of the infinite continuation of the organization's activities is not confirmed. This is due to the fact that ongoing projects are characterized by a finite period of time for their implementation.
The transition of organizations to the project model of the organization's activities produces a transformation of the organizational structure of the company. The allocation of projects as relatively independent organizational processes leads to the fact that the matrix organizational structure corresponds to the project model of the functioning of firms [35, p. 117]. The matrix organizational structure of the enterprise is characterized by the need to maintain a balance between the functional and project parts of the company.
At the same time, the matrix organizational structure better ensures the process of adaptation of the company to the external environment through the regular implementation of innovative projects. It is also important that the importance of innovation policy and effective business planning in the project model of the company's activities is increasing.
The starting point of the business plan of an innovative project is an innovative idea that sets the basis for this project.
An innovative idea can be called a novelty idea that has a specific target orientation and is characterized by potential economic and/or social value (utility). Innovative ideas are characterized by the following features: the connection of the idea with the thinking and mentality of the individual; the immaterial nature of the idea; the legal nature; the proximity of the idea to professional and general culture; the potential value (usefulness) of the idea for the economy and /or society, and others.
The subjects (actors) of innovative ideas can be individuals (scientists; inventors; businessmen; engineers and others) or project groups (teams). The sphere of professional activity of the subject (actor) of innovation affects the content of the innovative ideas synthesized by this subject.
Information sources of innovative activity should allow generating innovative ideas of the desired content
and type. Such information sources for the formation and search for ideas of innovative projects for business can be: information about the properties of new technologies and scientific achievements; marketing data about the needs of customers; knowledge of the properties and methods of manufacturing modern materials; knowledge about the competitive situation in the market; knowledge about the unmet needs of society and people, and more.
Ways to synthesize innovative business ideas can
be:
- construction of a morphological box;
- using the analogy method;
- the "size-time-cost" operator;
- collective generation of ideas;
- brainstorming (attack);
- Theory Of Inventive Problem Solving;
- information and suggestions discussed on the Internet;
- use of conceptual theories and developments;
- exploring banks of ideas;
- analysis of advanced achievements of science and technology;
- analysis of customer and customer reviews of the organization;
- analysis of patent information and others.
The synthesis of innovative ideas can be preceded by an analysis of the dynamics of the development of an industry or region, an analysis of the current situation.
The act of synthesizing innovative ideas cannot be fully formalized and described. Implicit knowledge of the subject of the idea plays an important role in the synthesis of ideas. The heuristic process of creating and developing innovative ideas is quite closely related to the mentality, way of thinking and intellectual potential of the employee.
The mentality of an employee can be understood as such a set of his characteristics: the level of abstraction of thinking; cultural values; intellectual potential; the ability to think creatively; attitude to the norms of law; the ability to work in a team and more.
The project team should simultaneously be characterized by: similarity of mentalities of team members and diversity of mentalities of team members. The diversity of mentalities of the team members ensures its versatility, the ability to solve the entire complex of project tasks (technical, economic, marketing and others). The similarity of the mentalities of the project team members provides an opportunity to create an effective team. Based on the similarity of the mentalities of the project team members, it is possible to ensure: consistency of the actions of the team members of the team; high efficiency of communication processes, taking into account the processes of exchange of implicit knowledge; unity of the organizational culture of the project team and more.
If an idea is synthesized and described at the subject level, it must be checked for feasibility and effectiveness.
At the same time, it is necessary to analyze such aspects of the innovative idea: to determine that the idea is in the legal field; to establish the correspondence of
the idea to the direction of technological progress; to determine the absence of conflict with the customs and customs of the local population; the possibility of practical implementation of the idea at the existing level of technology and science development; to assess the level of usefulness of the idea for buyers; to describe the ability of the idea to satisfy the needs of customers; to position the idea and the needs in the complex of needs and values of buyers; to assess the potential level of customer satisfaction using a product that implements this idea; to forecast the length of the time period of customer needs in this product; to assess the need for the development of additional service within the framework of the implementation of the idea, and more.
The main criteria for assessing the level of productivity of an innovative idea are: the possibility of assessing the potential usefulness of the idea for society and /or the economy; the degree of application of the highest scientific achievements; compliance of this idea with the trend of development of science and practice; the possibility of implementing the idea at the current stage of development of science and technology; the absence of contradictions of the idea with basic professional and social systems of relations (institutions).
System engineering can be recognized as a methodology for the development of innovative project ideas. System engineering integrates:
1) knowledge from a number of fields (technical sciences, management, marketing, finance, pricing and others;);
2) methods of harmonious unification of various types of knowledge and skills, the use of which ensures the formation and successful implementation of innovative projects.
The need for further development of system engineering is explained by the continuation of the systemic global crisis. The crisis during the change of technological patterns is associated with contradictions between: the requirements of new technologies to the nature of professional relations; existing socio-industrial public institutions. At the same time, the process of ETO development systematically includes: the development of public institutions; the creation of new technologies; the introduction of new technologies into the economy; the development of social and individual consciousness; the change of the world order; The development of art and much more [31; 32, pp. 27-40; 33, pp. 12-26; 34, pp. 5-21].
The process of recovery of the economy and society from the crisis also includes the course of development of ETO. At the same time, individual, random innovations may not be effective enough. Only a comprehensive modernization of the state, region or company can ensure the competitiveness and sustainability of the development of these types of organizations in the new ETO conditions.
An integrated approach to the modernization of products and equipment of firms can be based on the philosophical concept of such modernization. The conceptual approach allows generating chains of interconnected ideas of innovative projects. This leads to the emergence of a synergetic socio-economic effect in the
course of innovative activities of subjects of a new technological order. It is important that it is an integrated, systematic, conceptual approach to innovation that makes it possible to ensure the competitiveness of production processes and products themselves.
During the implementation of innovative projects, it should be borne in mind that the development of ETO includes the creation of: new social and professional institutions; a new organizational culture of project teams. These institutes can belong to different types of institutions: institutes for the development of new technologies; institutes for the introduction of new technologies into the products of previous technological structures [33, pp. 12-26; 34, pp. 554-563].
The need to form a conceptual, integrated approach to the modernization of products and production facilities is associated with the need to increase the efficiency of innovation in ETO. Such an increase in the efficiency of innovation can be achieved by the practical use of methods of the theory of technological orders. Such an increase in the efficiency of innovation activity based on the use of the theory of technological orders is associated with the action of such factors: there are several directions of technology development in ETO (neurotechnology, nanotechnology, etc.); the more times each of the new technologies is used in the economy, the higher its economic efficiency; these new technological developments can be used to improve various aspects of the product (or its production); the joint practical use of several technologies in the economy can generate a synergetic effect.
ETO is characterized by the advanced development of such types of technologies: resource-saving technologies; information technologies; nanotechnolo-gies; intelligent technologies; digitalization technologies; neurotechnologies; environmentally friendly technologies; biotechnologies, etc.
At the same time, some of these types of technologies (neurotechnologies, information) can be practically used to change the mentality, ways of thinking of people [24, pp. 30 - 46; 43, pp. 45-57].
The conceptual way of forming the ideas of innovative projects may include the following approaches:
- the idea of an innovative project can be generated by deductive method: the idea of the project should follow, be the result of the practical application of the theory of technological structures (theory of solving inventive tasks, other concepts);
- the idea of an innovative project is born on the basis of a certain philosophical concept of the development of technology, economy, society;
- the idea of an innovative project should be organically integrated into the concept of ETO formation in the economy and society;
- the purpose of the idea of an innovative project should be to increase the safety and comfort of society, the individual, and more.
The most general systematic view of a new innovative project will be called the concept of this innovative project. Within the framework of ETO, such a conceptual approach can be reflected in the desire of the authors of these ideas to maximize the use of new sci-
entific and technical achievements of a new technological order to increase the comfort of life and increase the safety of customers' activities.
During the ETO period, the conceptual approach to the implementation of innovative projects should be aimed at: the development of innovative technologies; the comprehensive practical implementation of these technologies in practice in the economy and society. This approach can be the main direction of the synthesis of ideas of innovative projects for the period up to 2040.
In the interests of implementing such an approach, an analysis of the structure of the technological basis of the state or the region of the state can be carried out.
Example #1. Let's consider the process of solving the problem of forecasting and developing the concept of innovative development of the region of the state for the ETO period. First of all, it can be recommended to analyze the structure of the technological basis of this region.
1. It is necessary to establish the structure of the technological basis of the region from the point of view of belonging of each of the enterprises to a certain technological order.
2. At the same time, it is necessary to assess the contribution of technologies of previous technological orders to the economy of the region.
3. It is necessary to evaluate the possibility of using new ETO technologies in existing enterprises.
4. It is necessary to select those ETO technologies that can be applied to the largest number of enterprises. These technologies need to be implemented first.
5. It is recommended to consider the possibility of integrated application of ETO technologies at enterprises of previous technological orders.
Example #2. Consider the possibility of applying ETO technologies to livestock farms in permafrost areas. In Russia, permafrost occupies 2/3 of the territory of our country. Such livestock farms are of a family nature. Animal breeders live in yurts. Such animal breeders move on reindeer sleds.
Such reindeer sleds belong to the first technological order. This technological order is called "horse-drawn traction".
Consider the possibility of applying ETO technologies to a reindeer sled.
2.1. Nanotechnologies can be used to increase the strength and wear resistance, thermal insulation properties of individual parts: a reindeer sled; a yurt in which reindeer herders live.
2.2. Can nanotechnologies and biotechnologies be used to develop medicines to increase the immunity of livestock breeders and deer themselves?
2.3. Neurotechnologies can be used to register the physical condition of both reindeer herders and their reindeer. Such use of neurotechnologies can help to avoid: overstrain and death of deer; reduce the risks of livestock deaths; reduce the risk of diseases of people in long transitions, and more.
2.4. Information technologies and the use of satellites to track the location of reindeer herders' camps and
individual reindeer sleds can reduce the risks of reindeer herders' families in difficult meteriological conditions, and more.
In general, the integrated application of new ETO technologies can reduce the risks of life and increase the life expectancy of reindeer herders.
Such programs for the introduction of new technologies could become international. This would reduce the cost of equipment sets due to the increase in production volumes (this is the well-known "scale effect of production").
In fact, we may be talking about a comprehensive modernization of the ecosystem of the vital activity of the small peoples of the North.
Similar ecosystem modernization programs can be implemented for peoples living in desert conditions, in hard-to-reach areas.
The implementation of such modernization programs could reduce the gap between the technological living standards of different peoples.
At the same time, the ETO time period is important not only to synthesize new technologies. It is even more important to increase the number of practical applications of innovative technologies to existing facilities. The more times the innovative ETO technology is implemented in practice, the higher the indicator of its integration (multiplication) with technologies and objects of previous technological structures will be. This will lead to an increase in the level of economic efficiency of innovative ETO technologies.
The process of implementing such an innovative project should be based on a certain paradigm. The project paradigm can be understood as a systematic unification of the humanitarian elements of this project: philosophy, ideology, methodology, organizational culture, policy, strategy and tactics of the implementation of this project.
The philosophy of an innovative project can be called the most general and wise view of the essence, content of this project, its role.
In this case, the idea of an innovative project should be considered as part of the ideology of this project. At the same time, the idea of the project can be considered as the main goal of the project. This is the first part of the project's ideology. The second part of the ideology of the innovation project is the way power is distributed in this project among its stakeholders. The project implementation policy can be understood as a set of coordinated measures aimed at its implementation. The policy of implementation of the innovation project includes the strategy and tactics of its implementation.
Further development of the theory of technological orders will allow us to more accurately understand: the trends of ongoing changes; the importance of individual elements of innovation activity.
The analysis shows that it is already possible to formulate such axioms of the theory of technological orders:
1) during the development (youth) of a new technological order, the importance of conceptual developments increases, the formation of which belongs to the
upper levels of the technological pyramid. These conceptual developments are of great importance: they open up new technological horizons, create a new technological civilization;
2) at the initial stage of the development of a new technological order, the number of mental conflicts increases, which is associated with a lack of understanding of the processes taking place by a significant number of economic entities;
3) at the stage of technological maturity, the greatest intensity of innovation is observed at the lower levels of the technological pyramid. These are relatively small innovations aimed at improving previously created technologies and productions.
In 2021, ETO is in the youth stage. In this regard, scientists are forming a number of conceptual approaches: the theory of technological orders as the basis of the methodology of comprehensive modernization of
the national economy; the theory of nature-like (convergent) technologies; ecosystem approach in the activities of organizations.
In 2021, scientists propose to develop nature-like (convergent) technologies [20;21]. A special case of nature-like technologies can be considered the trend of ecosystem development and the ecosystem approach in the implementation of innovative projects [22, pp. 2324].
At the same time, the theories of the ecosystem approach and convergent (nature-like) technologies have not yet been developed. We can say that in these areas in 2021, practice is ahead of science.
In this article, it is proposed to conduct a comparative analysis of the individual characteristics of these conceptual approaches. A comparative analysis of the methodology of the theory of technological structures, ecosystem and nature-like (convergent) approaches in innovation is described in Table No. 3.
№ n/n Innovative project development concepts /Titles properties of the concept Theory of technological orders The concept of an ecosystem approach The concept of convergent (nature-like) technologies
1. The satisfied need of society Society's need for sustainable scientific and technological progress Improving the comfort of the lifestyle of a certain social group Minimizing resource consumption and damage to nature
2. The basis of the methodology Philosophy and methodology of science Analysis of the lifestyle of social groups Stochastic, simulation modeling of natural processes
3. Development product (product or service) Scientific support for the development of ETO (service) Complex product (goods and services) for one social group The product is related to resource conservation and the ecology of society
4. Planning horizon the year 2040 Strategic, market segment Long-term, global
5. The object of implementation of the innovation project Technological order as a new stage in the development of human civilization Creation of a comprehensive service system for the market segment The system of nature conservation and ensuring the environmental interests of society as a whole
6. Attitude to competition It is out of competition due to a qualitative leap in technological development The goal is to avoid competition by creating pioneer integrated products Competition at the level of philosophy, national idea, lifestyle and culture of the nation
7. Key factors of developer competition Mentality and organizational culture of development institutions of the ETO competence and organizational culture of the company's personnel Organizational culture of the entire national innovation system
8. The impact of the concept on the market Qualitative impact on all markets The impact of the product on the market segment The impact of the technological system on the human environment
9. Criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of an innovative project Improving the level of safety and comfort of life of the population The cost of the company The degree of similarity of the technological process to natural processes
Source: developed by the author
Table No. 3
Comparative analysis of methodology (concepts) of the theory of technological orders, ecosystem approaches
and convergent technologies
The main author (subject) of writing a business plan for an innovative project is the project team (project team). The process of creating and features of project group management methods are described in work [23, pp. 47-54]. To ensure the effectiveness of the project implementation process, the project team must work: in good faith; scientifically justified; in the interests of ensuring the success of the project; pursues the goal of maximizing the performance criterion set from the outside: strive to reduce the payback period of the project, increase the net reduced effect, increase the return on investment index; work independently (the principle of economic independence of activity) and more.
It is possible to improve the quality of innovative project ideas by using an algorithm for the synthesis of such ideas. The algorithm for synthesizing an innovative project idea consists of the following actions of the project team:
1) Monitoring the characteristics of the situation in the company's business and detecting problems in its activities;
2) Collecting additional information characterizing the problem;
3) Detailed analysis of the external and internal environment of the company;
4) Diagnostics of the company's problem;
5) Generation of ideas, solutions to the problem;
6) Study of the degree of feasibility of the proposed ideas;
7) Synthesis of criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of solving the problem;
8) Formation of a business plan for an innovative project;
9) Making a management decision on the implementation of a certain variant of an innovative project;
10) Formation of a project group (project team);
11) Creation of an innovative project as a set of project documents defining the appearance of an innovative project;
12) Development of a practical implementation plan for this project;
13) practical implementation of an innovative project;
14) Monitoring the progress of implementation and the level of effectiveness of the project;
15) Assessment of the real economic efficiency of the innovation project and, if necessary, adjustment of the progress of the project.
In the process of forming a business plan and the practical implementation of an innovative project, it is often necessary to make changes to such a project. This is due to obtaining additional information on the project and its implementation process. In the process of project adjustment, the mentality and the degree of creativity of the team of this project is of great importance. The creativity of the project team can be understood as a whole set of its characteristics. The creativity of the project group can be described as a set of such properties characteristic of this group: the sensitivity of the project group to the problems of the project; awareness by this group of the existing shortage of management decisions; the ability of the project team to find good
solutions to problems; the ability of the project team to form and test hypotheses on the essence of the project; the ability of the project team to correctly predict the process and results of the project; the property of the project team to correctly describe the situation in an innovative project and more.
The factors that affect the quality of innovative project ideas can be called:
1) innovative mentality of the leader and the entire project team;
2) professional composition and organizational culture of the innovation project team;
3) the technological structure of the subject area (mechanical engineering, computer science, biology, etc.) of the implementation of an innovative project;
4) the hierarchical level of the "technological pyramid" at which this innovative project is supposed to be implemented;
3) the type of market in which the project product will be traded (producer's market; consumer's market);
5) industrial or post-industrial nature of the innovation project;
6) a product or service as a type of product of an innovative project;
7) the nature (functional, structural, parametric) of the company's problem solved in the innovative project;
8) the object of an innovative project (technology, product, transformation of human consciousness, service and/or other).
Modeling can be used to improve the accuracy of business plans for innovative projects. The business process modeling method can be effective when such conditions are met:
1) the model must describe in detail the object of modeling in order to ensure the adequacy of this model to the real object (technology, service, product);
2) the model should be abstract and simplified so that the costs of using models can be significantly lower than the costs of similar studies using a real object.
Various kinds of models use different languages to express information about the modeling object [35, p.155; 36]:
1) verbal description is a modeling language in mental and descriptive models. Such a description is a simple and informal representation of information about the modeling object in this project;
2) a model based on a graphic image uses the following languages: device drawing; construction of a graph tree of project goals; curves of graphs of changes in characteristics over time; histograms; "Japanese candlesticks"; nomograms;
3) the object structure modeling language is: flowcharts of this object; decision matrices that allow you to display the structure and/or logical connections of the elements of the modeling object;
4) mathematical formulas are the language of models when it is necessary to describe the processes of functioning of an object in the form of formulas based on variable characteristics of the object and more.
The forms of expression of information about the modeling object must correspond to: the type of model;
modeling tasks; the form of presentation of modeling results to the customer.
In the form of principles for creating models, we can call [35, p.182; 36]:
- the principle of compromise between the complexity of the model and the expected accuracy of modeling results;
- the principle of balance of accuracy: proportionality of random and systematic modeling error;
- the principle of sufficient diversity of model elements: elements should be sufficient for the study of multivariate (modular) and multifunctional objects;
- the principle of model visibility for the researcher and the customer;
- the principle of block representation of the model;
- the principle of specialization of models of real objects.
At the same time, the following requirements are imposed on the models themselves [35, p.182; 36]: completeness; adaptability; ensure the possibility of implementing significant changes; the model must be sufficiently abstract; must meet the requirements for the time of solving the research problem; must be implemented using existing technical means; provide an increase in useful information about the modeling object; must be built using generally accepted concepts; must allow for adequacy verification and verification; the model should be characterized by the property of error tolerance in the source data (robustness).
Models during the implementation of an innovative project can be used to perform such tasks: to determine the goals of the project, a search forecast is used; normative forecasting can be used to find ways to solve project tasks; strategic planning can be carried out to allocate resources between projects; business planning allows you to determine the progress of one project; long-term planning ensures the implementation of a separate stage of the project; current planning is aimed at solving planning tasks within 3 months; operational planning deals with the solution of project tasks within one month.
The following types of models are often used to model business processes: the business model of M. Johnson, K.Christensen, H.Kagermann; Cost-volume-profit (CVP) analysis; the model of Alex Osterwalder.
The model of the innovative project proposed in work [38, pp.12-17]. This model allows you to get an estimate of the probability of successful implementation of an innovative project. Such an estimate can be obtained as the product of the probabilities of a successful solution to the problems of the project (for example, the development of a successful product design). At the same time, in the model under consideration, the entire process of implementing an innovative project is divided into two groups of management decisions: decisions on external problems of the project; decisions on internal problems of the project. The content of these design solutions, respectively, was described in two tables [38, pp.12-17].
This four - level product model is based on the well - known three - level product model F. Kotler. In his model, Phillip Kotler identified three levels of
goods. The first level of the product characterizes its main purpose (to satisfy a certain need of buyers). The second level of the model describes the product in its real execution (defines the main characteristics of the product). The third level of this model represents "goods with reinforcement" (credit, warranty, aftersales service, etc.) [11, p.265].
In order to describe the strategic and environmental impact of the product, it was proposed to supplement this model with its fourth level (environmental and strategic) [29, pp. 7-16; 30, pp. 18-24; 38, pp.12-17; ].
Based on the data of such a model, the probability of successful implementation (competitiveness) of an innovative project can be calculated as the product of the probabilities of successful solution of project problems. This model reflects the interrelationships of: the technological complexity of the project; the competence of the project team; the probability of successful implementation of the project; the financial results of the project. The competence and interaction of the project team members affect the probability of successful solution of project problems.
The results of modeling the implementation of innovative projects can be useful in the process of writing a business plan for an innovative project. The business plan of an innovative project becomes the basis for the organization's managers to make management decisions that are aimed at implementing a certain innovative project.
The business plan of an innovative project can perform the following functions:
1) description of the conditions for the implementation of the innovation project;
2) evaluation of the financial results of the innovation project;
3) determining the key characteristics of an innovative project in such aspects as: proposed value; project product; market segment (buyers); market segment capacity; projected sales volume of the product; brand of the project and product; marketing program and more;
4) research of the production system of the innovative project (site and its arrangement; production technologies; necessary equipment; raw materials used in production; project personnel and others);
5) determination of qualification and professional requirements for the team (staff) of the innovation project;
6) identification of investment sources and development of an investment schedule for an innovative project;
7) research on the risks of an innovative project;
8) analysis of ways to reduce the risks of an innovative project;
9) forecasting the financial results of an innovative project and others.
At the same time, the business plan of an innovative project can perform the following roles: determining the types and volumes of necessary resources; assessing the degree of preparedness of the project team for the implementation of this project; reducing risks in the implementation of an innovative project.
The methodology for writing the business plan of the project has been approved by UNIDO. This methodology determines that the following characteristics and sections of the innovation project should be included in the content of the business plan of the project:
1. Description of the initial data of the project and the conditions for the implementation of the innovation project.
2. Characteristics of the specifics of the market and production capacities of the innovative project.
3. Analysis of material factors of production.
4. Characteristics of the production site of the innovative project.
5. Estimated and design documentation of the innovation project.
6. Assessment of overhead costs and characteristics of the organizational structure of the project (enterprise).
7. Description of the nature and volume of resources required for the successful implementation of the innovation project.
8. Determination of the period of implementation of the innovation project.
9. Evaluation of financial and other results of the innovation project.
10. The study of risks in the implementation of an innovative project, methods of reduction, risk insurance [35, p.251; 36, p.9-15; 37, p.22; 38, p. 12- 17].
The financial results of an innovative project can characterize such indicators as: PP-the payback period of the project; NPV-the net reduced effect of the project; PI - the return on investment index and others. Estimates of these financial indicators of an innovative project can be calculated using the formulas given in works [37, p.22; 38, p. 12- 17].
Discussion. Search forecasting makes it possible to determine the goal of modernization of the technological basis of industries and regions during the eighth technological order. Normative forecasting makes it possible to optimize methods and tools for the modernization of economic sectors and regions during the development of the eighth technological order (ETO). The results of forecasting make it possible to make more effective management decisions in the process of becoming an ETO. The development of industry and regional ETO models makes it possible to simultaneously increase the efficiency and reduce the risks of ETO development management processes. Therefore, increased attention should be paid to system forecasting and analysis of ETO development processes. There are grounds to predict the transition of organizations active in the field of innovation to the use of a project model of organizations' activities.
The mentality, competence and organizational culture of the personnel of organizations and/or members of the project team (group) may play an important role in the implementation of the project model of functioning and business planning of innovative projects in organizations. Of great importance for the effective work of the project team are: a favorable moral atmosphere; similarity of mentalities; system analysis and forecasting; creativity and organizational culture of the
members of the project team (group). The organizational culture of the project team should: to contribute to the collective generation of ideas by this team; to increase the effectiveness of interaction in the team; to increase the effectiveness of communication, the exchange of implicit knowledge in the process of project implementation. The competence of the project team members directly affects the likelihood of successful project implementation. Therefore, it is possible for members of the project team to apply an assessment of their competence based on the results of the projects they have completed [29, p. 7-16; 30, p. 18-24].
When writing business plans for innovative projects, it can be recommended to additionally take into account the following factors: the existence of the financial cycle of the project; the specifics of the marketing strategy of the enterprise [35, pp.140-141]; the specifics of the product life cycle; the type of market cycle of products and more. Developers of business plans should take into account the division of the market cycle of goods into the following stages: the introduction of a product or service (product) to the market; an increase in sales of the product; maturity of the product, which is characterized by a constant demand for the product; saturation of the market with the product; decline in demand for the product; withdrawal of the product from the market [11, p.160].
In the process of developing plans and implementing innovative projects, it is proposed to take into account that the project team has the amount of information about the object being developed in the innovative project, in particular, and the stage of implementation of this project, the stage of the product development cycle.
In the practice of designing high-tech engineering products, it is customary to divide the entire life cycle of this product into the following stages: design (development); production of goods (manufacture); commissioning and adjustment of goods (adjustment); the stage of circulation of goods on the market; the stage of operation of goods by the owner; the stage of disposal or modification of goods. In turn, the process of designing such products is divided into the following stages: research work or preliminary design; the stage of the preliminary design; the stage of the technical project; the stage of prototypes [35, p.140-141].
When implementing innovative projects, it should be remembered that the level of risk in innovative projects is higher than in the field of routine activities of organizations. This statement is confirmed by the data of F. Kotler. These data indicate that: 40% of all innovative projects fail in the consumer goods market; 20% of innovative projects fail in the industrial goods market; 18% of innovative projects fail in the services market [11, p. 288]. At the same time, failure in the project has two consequences at once: first, the loss of invested funds; secondly, the profit not received by the organization. Therefore, when implementing innovative projects, special attention should be paid to methods of reducing the risks of these projects.
The materials of this article indicate that it is very useful to forecast the processes of modernization of economic sectors and regions of the country. Additionally, this article confirms that the implementation of system
modeling of the development of economic sectors and regions of the country can increase the efficiency of the management of the processes of formation and development of ETO. In turn, the development of ETO affects: the development of the country's regions; the progress of economic sectors; all spheres of human life and activity, including the development of neurogeopolitics, neuromarketing and others.
The leadership qualities of the leaders of these organizations can be useful in the formation of programs for the modernization of the economy of industries and regions of the country. In particular, the newly elected mayor of New York announced that he will receive his first three salaries as mayor in bitcoins. It is claimed that by doing this, the new mayor of this city will help make his city the most favorable for innovation. This can give extra enthusiasm to inventors in this city. This approach to innovation management can be considered neurotechnological. Since neurotechnologies are associated with a new technological order (way of life), this may indicate that new technologies are penetrating into the processes of managing the development of a new technological way of life, in all spheres of our life. You can read more about the use of neurotechnologies in management in [41, pp.54-63; 42, pp.75-88; 43, pp.4557].
Conclusion. The article develops a methodology for forecasting the processes of modernization of economic sectors and regions of the country in the process of formation of the eighth technological order. For such forecasting of modernization processes, the construction of system models of economic sectors and regions of the country was used. The paper presents a comparative analysis of three concepts of development in the eighth technological order: the theory of technological modes; ecosystem approach; the concept of convergent (nature-like) technologies. Using system models of various fields of activity (fuel and energy complex, military-technical activities, etc.), the global and comprehensive impact of ETO development on society and the economy has been confirmed. In this article, arguments are made in favor of the fact that due to the increasing intensity of innovation, it is possible to predict the transition of enterprises to a project model of their functioning during the eighth technological order (ETO). At the same time, a further increase in the importance of business planning in the implementation of innovative projects can be predicted. The article proposes a conceptual approach to the formation of ideas and business plans for innovative projects during the development of the eighth technological order. The paper describes the results of a study of the process of forming and modeling business plans of projects. The article examines and describes the process of drawing up a business plan for an innovative project. The results of this article will be practically useful in: forecasting the processes of modernization of economic sectors and regions of the country during the development of ETO; transition of firms to the project model of their activities; practical implementation of innovative projects, taking into account the specifics of the processes of formation of the eighth technological order in the economy and society, and more.
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