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66ECONOMIC SCIENCES
FORMATION OF MANAGEMENT DECISIONS: METHODS AND MODELS
Abuzyarova Zh.
Master of Economic Sciences Atyrau University named after Khalel Dosmukhamedov (Atyrau, Kazakhstan)
ORCID 0000-0002-2067-6046
Abstract
Management activity is always associated with both the development and the adoption of appropriate management decisions for a variety of situations. Today, quite often, the only way to rationalize a management decision is its financial component, namely, an increase in revenues or a reduction in expenditures from budgets of any levels. The issue of risk management and overcoming uncertainty is always relevant in any sector of the economy. Every economic entity at absolutely all levels, one way or another, is affected by extraordinary situations and unpredictable circumstances, to which it is necessary to respond adequately. Along with this, there was a need to implement scientific methods of the theory of management of the enterprise economy, including for the development and adoption of the most rational, economical and effective management decisions.
Keywords: management, management decision-making, payment matrix, methods, models, quality, efficiency
Introduction
There are 3 main models in the process of developing and making management decisions:
1. Physical (descriptive or portrait) - describes an object or situation, showing how it looks. For example: a copy of a car, an airplane, a reduced drawing of an enterprise.
2. Analog - an image of an object or situation by other means. For example: an organizational chart; graphs of the ratio of various indicators of the company's activity.
3. Mathematical symbolic models are used to describe the characteristics and properties of an object or events in the form of mathematical symbols, formulas, calculations, economic analysis. Mathematical models use symbols that express the dependencies of some quantities on others.
As we know, the number of various specific models of management science and the number of problems solved, both in determining the goals of the activity and in the process of achieving the goals of the enterprise is quite large, this is the relevance of this topic.
The purpose of this article is to study models of management science. The main objective of the article is to get acquainted with the methods and models for justifying the development and adoption of management decisions, as well as ways to improve the effectiveness of management decisions. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the scrupulous study of theoretical sources and the use of the acquired knowledge in modern realities.
The following methods of managerial decision-making are distinguished.
Qualitative forecasting methods. Forecasting of the future is carried out by experts who are approached for an in-depth analysis of the issue before making a management decision, in this case, the opinion of competitors, consumers is used, government assessments are studied, and expertise is conducted. For example, the consumer expectation model is a forecast that is
based on the results of a survey of businesses and customers. They are asked to assess their own needs in the future and new requirements. After collecting all the data and making adjustments for over- or underestimation, based on their experience, the manager is often able to accurately predict aggregate demand.
Another rather important method in the process of developing and making managerial decisions is group. In the case of using the group method, it is possible to generate fresh ideas and new approaches through a creative approach and discussion of ideas. This method of group technique is based on the principle of limiting interpersonal communication. So, initially, the whole group, which was formed to make a certain managerial decision, provides some written sketches that provide ways to solve the issue or a way to make a managerial decision. In the future, each group directly voices the essence of their sketches. After that, the information is subject to review and analysis by the group. At this stage, the study is carried out directly, the materials do not lend themselves to criticism or any discussions. At the next stage, each of the group members sets out their assessment of the submitted projects in writing or electronically. The sketch that has received the most positive feedback should be accepted as the main management decision.
The next method of making a management decision is the payment matrix, used when it is necessary to make a choice in favor of one option in the presence of several solutions. The use of this method will be very relevant if the manager has previously established a strategy that will best contribute to the achievement of goals.
Thus, it is possible to use the payment matrix method in the following cases:
Firstly, in the presence of a small number of possible options for development and decision-making;
Secondly, the result of the management decision will depend entirely on which method of action was chosen.
The presence of risks has a direct impact on decision-making. Having determined for each possible solution option the value that is expected as a result, it is likely to make a management decision as to which option, under certain conditions, is the most attractive.
The next method of making managerial decisions, the "decision tree" method, is a schematic representation of the best possible course of action from several possible ones.
The method of quantitative forecasting is time series analysis. This method is based on assumptions, according to which what took place last year gives a good approximation in assessing the indicators of the next year.
The Delphi method is used when it is not possible to assemble a group of specialists in one place. In accordance with this methodology, meetings of participants and the exchange of opinions between them are deliberately excluded. The development of the problem by the Delphi method can be implemented as follows:
the members of the working group are offered a list of questions on the problem under consideration;
each member of this group answers these questions independently and anonymously;
the answers are coordinated in the center, and already on their basis an integral document is compiled, which contains all the proposed options for possible solutions;
each member of the group receives a copy of this document;
familiarization with the proposals of other participants may change the opinion about possible solutions to the problem;
steps four and five are repeated as many times as necessary in order to reach an agreed solution.
The considered method, as well as the method of nominal group technique, ensures the independence of the opinions of individual members of the group. However, the time spent on developing solutions here increases significantly, and the number of alternatives offered decreases. Of course, these disadvantages should be taken into account when choosing the Delphi method for group development of management decisions.
Thus, there is a fairly large arsenal of management decision-making methods. Among them, programmed solutions, organizational solutions, group, individual, as well as intuitive management solutions should be noted. Each of the above decision-making methods has both a number of positive and a number of negative factors.
Ways to improve the quality and effectiveness of management decisions.
In the conditions of an unstable external environment, internal contradictions arising in the process of functioning of the enterprise, the management system needs to react promptly and continuously adapt to the requirements of the modern world, which is constantly changing. Of particular relevance is the ability of managers to correctly assess problematic situations in real time and make high-quality management decisions. The problems of formation and adoption of high-qual-
ity management decisions in modern conditions urgently require the study of theoretical and methodological aspects of management decisions from the standpoint of assessing their quality.
To achieve this goal, we consider it necessary, first of all, to define the concept of "process quality". In the dictionary of the Russian language by S.I. Ozhegov, the category "quality" is characterized as follows: "Quality is the presence of essential properties, signs, features that distinguish one object or phenomenon from others and give it certainty." The loss of properties and characteristics leads to the disappearance of the object to which they belonged. In this sense, quality is an objective category, because each object or process is characterized by certain properties. It should be emphasized that the properties of an object or process exist in addition to the will of a person, regardless of his awareness. However, this objectivity is to a certain extent conditional, since it is impossible to deny the presence of a person in objects or processes that have an artificial origin. When it comes to the quality of the management process, it is impossible to talk about the complete objectivity of this category, because decision-making is a process that involves the direct participation of a person, which leads to a subjective perception of the quality of this process. At the same time, it is the subjective perception of quality that helps to evaluate it. A management decision that has a more pronounced set of properties (parameters, solutions) that satisfy a particular business entity and ensure the effectiveness of its functioning will be of higher quality.
The functional understanding of quality, the regularity of expressing qualitative characteristics through quantitative indicators is closely related to the practice of management, economic processes. One of the founders of the scientific discipline of qualimetry G.G. Azgaldov gives the following definition of quality: "Quality is a complex property, which is a combination of all those and only those properties that characterize the results obtained when consuming an object."
The quality of a management decision is a set of properties of a management decision made by the management apparatus to achieve goals consistent with the interests of the business owner.
The management decision, as the most important part of a complex management process, largely determines the level of its quality, ensures the competitiveness and efficiency of the enterprise. It is "decisionmaking that constitutes the essence of the management process, its ascending and most responsible stage, determines the level of productivity and efficiency of the entire management system and processes." Moreover, "the management decision is the final stage of the management process and determines its result."
To prepare conclusions and recommendations based on the results of the analysis of the quality of the management decision-making process, it is necessary to proceed to the next stage of the analysis - generalization of information. It is at this stage that the basis is created for the formation of management decision options aimed at improving the quality of the decision-making process.
The application of a system methodology, as a result of which the decision-making process can be considered as an important element of the management system, allows us to identify system quality criteria. On the other hand, as we know, decision-making is a process of consistent management actions, for the evaluation of which quality criterion processes are necessary. The result of the decision-making process, which determines the quality of its development process, determines the use of specific quality criteria.
The application of a system methodology, as a result of which the decision-making process can be considered as an important element of the management system, allows us to identify system quality criteria. On the other hand, as we see it, decision-making is a process of consistent management actions, for the evaluation of which quality criteria are necessary for the process. The result of the decision-making process, which determines the quality of its development process, determines the use of specific quality criteria.
Another important element of the methodology is the analysis technology, which is based on the use of heuristic methods, it includes: questionnaire, survey, checklist method, comparison, logical analysis. This method allows you to evaluate the quality of each object of analysis. As we know, analysis is impossible without appropriate information support. And first of all, it includes:
organizational documents, incoming information, that is, data on the situation and outgoing information - orders, orders,
information of the personnel department - data on education, professional development of managerial personnel,
the results of a questionnaire and a survey on the use of scientific methods of collecting information, methods of optimizing creative thinking, methods of justifying managerial decisions, and the like.
Based on the results of the implementation of this methodology for analyzing the quality of the process of making and implementing a management decision, and the initial (analytical) information is already being formed.
The presence of many indicators, primarily qualitative ones, requires its systematization and generalization.
Conclusion
Thus, studying the totality of all stages of analysis and sequential actions, analytics for assessing the quality of the process of making and implementing a management decision is a methodological instruction for conducting an analysis. And this makes it possible to increase the responsibility of managers at each stage of the management process, and ultimately will contribute to improving the condition and effectiveness of the functioning of the enterprise management system.
If there are a small number of alternatives and only one criterion for evaluating a management decision, then the choice is made by an authorized person taking into account this criterion. Considering a situation where there is a preference of several alternatives and criteria for evaluating these alternatives, in this case the choice can be implemented by an authorized person using existing decision-making methods or by a group, for example, a working group of managers.
Mathematical models are used to evaluate alternative management solutions and find the optimal option using existing decision-making methods.
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