CC BY
266УДК 339.97
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN DIGITAL ECONOMY IN ASEAN*
Nguyen Thi Thanh Mai, Nguyen Tien Minh, Dang Thi Ngan
The fourth industrial revolution has dramatically changed the global economy and how business is conducted in the world. In ASEAN, the digital network development and the increasing number of internet and smartphone users have fueled the region's digital economy to grow rapidly over the years. As a dynamic area in attracting global FDI, science and technology development has increased FDI in the various digital economy sectors, including digital infrastructure and other fields such as e-commerce, fintech and venture capital, etc. Based on the theoretical framework developed by UNCTAD (2019), this article reviews and analyses the current situation of FDI in the digital infrastructure, which is the core layer of the digital economy in ASEAN. Based on the research results, the authors give implications for the region to promote FDI attraction into the digital infrastructure in ASEAN.
Keywords: FDI; digital economy; digital infrastructure; ASEAN; 5G; data centres.
Нгуен Тхи Тхань Май, Нгуен Тиен Мин, Данг Тхи Нган. ПРЯМЫЕ ИНОСТРАННЫЕ ИНВЕСТИЦИИ В ЦИФРОВУЮ ЭКОНОМИКУ В АСЕАН
Четвертая промышленная революция резко изменила мировую экономику и способы ведения бизнеса в мире. В АСЕАН развитие цифровых сетей и увеличение числа пользователей Интернета и смартфонов способствовали быстрому росту цифровой экономики региона на протяжении многих лет. В качестве динамичной области привлечения глобальных ПИИ развитие науки и техники привело к увеличению ПИИ в различных секторах цифровой экономики, включая цифровую инфраструктуру и другие области, такие как электронная коммерция, финансовые технологии и венчурный капитал и т.д. На основе теоретической основы, разработанной ЮНКТАД (2019), в этой статье рассматривается и анализируется текущая ситуация с ПИИ в цифровой инфраструктуре, которая является основным уровнем цифровой экономики в АСЕАН. Основываясь на результатах исследования, авторы дают возможность региону способствовать привлечению ПИИ в цифровую инфраструктуру АСЕАН.
Ключевые слова: ПИИ; цифровая экономика; цифровая инфраструктура; АСЕАН; 5G; центры обработки данных.
Today, the fourth industrial revolution has dramatically changed the global economy and how business is conducted in the world. In ASEAN, along with the development of the digital network, the number of internet/smartphone users and technology companies, the digital economy have been growing rapidly. ASEAN has the potential to become one of the top five digital economies globally, with the digital market growing threefold in the past three years and accounting for 7 % of the region's $2.8 trillion GDP [1].
Over the last two years, our world has faced a crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Countries are ramping up digital transformation to address the disruptions caused by the pandemic. In particular, increasing the attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the digital economy will help countries recover from the pandemic and develop more sustainably in the future. As a dynamic
area in attracting global FDI, the development of science and technology has increased FDI into the ASEAN's digital economy, including the development of data centres and information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure and other activities such as e-commerce, fintech, and venture capital, etc. Foreign and ASEAN ICT companies and digital multinational enterprises (MNEs) are now increasing their attention to the region. However, attracting large technology companies to invest in the region will require the right policy and regulatory framework.
Based on the framework developed by UNCTAD (2019) on the structure of the digital economy with 03 scopes (Digital infrastructure -IT/ICT sector; Narrow scope - Digital economy, and Broad scope - Digitalized economy), this article analyzes the current status of FDI in the digital economy in ASEAN, focusing mainly
* Thank University of Economics and Business, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, for financing the Research Project number KT.19.06. This paper has been extracted from this research.
on the field of digital infrastructure [2]. This is considered the backbone of the digital economy and helps increase the efficiency of the digitized environment, increase connectivity, meet the demand for information and data, facilitate data processing, and improve data storage capacity. The authors also provide some policy implications to attract FDI to promote the ASEAN's digital economy.
In recent years, technological advances are changing how goods and services are produced, paving the way for the 4th industrial revolution [3]. The digital economy is becoming an increasingly important part of this transformation. There are many different interpretations, but there is no universally accepted understanding.
Global Trends (2013) defines the digital economy as «economic and social activities that exhibit the following characteristics: enabled by internet/mobile technology platforms and sensors, providing an environment information-rich, built on global, instant/real-time information, providing 24/7 access anywhere, and powered by multiple interconnected virtual networks» [4]. The OECD (2012, p. 6) defines the digital economy as «including markets based on digital technologies that promote trade in goods and services through e-commerce» [5, p. 6]. It can be defined as the application of internet-based technologies to the production and trade of goods and services [6]. Schawab (2016) argues that the digital economy -is becoming an ever more important part of the global economy [3].
Although ther are several different definitions,
there is a general recognition that the digital economy is fueled by destructive technologies that have changed the market [7]. These technologies include mobile internet, knowledge work automation, Internet of Things, cloud computing, robots, 3D printers and modern materials. Technological innovations can create a process that Schumpeter calls «creative destruction» - which creates both opportunities and challenges [8].
UNCTAD (2019) proposes a conceptual framework for the digital economy that includes three areas: Core layer, Narrow Scope (Digital economy) and Broad Scope (Digitalised Economy) [2], as shown in figure 1.
The core component of the digital economy is the digital infrastructure or the ICT sector. This component includes the manufacturing of hardware, software, information services and telecommunications. Specifically, this component includes national and transatlantic fibre optic cable systems; fixed broadband infrastructure, mobile communication network, transmission tower, radio; satellite communications broadband; database and cloud computing; end-user equipment such as mobile devices, PCs, modems, WiFi; software platforms include computer and mobile device operating systems as well as application programming transactions; network devices such as sensors, robots, and other devices and software to facilitate the operation of autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles. Digital infrastructure is the foundation to promote the development of the digital economy.
The digital economy, in its narrow scope, adds
Broad scope: Digitalized economy
L Narrow scope: Digital economy
Core: Digital (IC/ICT sector)
Hardware manufacturing Software & IT consulting Information services Telecommunications
Figure 1. The digital economy structure
digital services and platform economy. Based on the core layer, businesses harness digital devices and digital connectivity to develop and deliver software applications and digital services for the broader digital economy - the outermost layer of the digital economic model in the broadest sense. This layer adds e-business, e-commerce, industry 4.0, the rest of the sharing economy. The outermost layer includes various partners such as consumers, government enterprises, and organizations worldwide, using digital connections, products, and services created from the core and middle layers in production, business and consumption activities. As the core and middle layers grow, the economy grows.
Investment in ASEAN's digital economy is increasing rapidly due to the growth of this sector in the region. It can be said that ASEAN is a typical example developed by digital transformation. ASEAN is one of the fastest-growing regions in terms of Internet usage and has the third-largest number of Internet users in the world after China and India, with a compound annual growth rate of 13 % since 2015. As of July 2019, the region's population is 662 million, including 426 million internet users and 853 million mobile subscribers. The internet penetration rate is 63 %, among the highest in the world [9]. In 2020, this number will be 70 % [10]. Over 90 % of Internet users use smartphones - making mobile the most important channel for digital activities. With a compound annual growth rate of 7 % since 2012, the region has one of the fastest-growing mobile bases in the world, and mobile broadband subscription growth is comparable to that of China. The mobile penetration rate is 129 %, mainly concentrated in urban areas. According to the latest data from the GSMA Intelligence report, 97 % of the region's population lives in an area covered by a mobile network, and 84 % of the population lives within 4G connectivity. The number of internet users on mobile devices has increased rapidly during the past time, of which 323 million people have subscribed to
mobile internet packages. This number is predicted to reach 510 million by 2025 [10].
The active participation of countries in the region in attracting investment to develop digital infrastructure is the main factor behind this development. It enables other digital economy areas such as e-commerce, new forms of online entertainment and news, car-hailing service model, and online payment and marketing activities. While the context of the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global investment activities, the digital transformation process increased FDI, especially FDI, into the digital economy. UNCTAD (2021) forecasts that investment in some service industries and technology-related activities such as digital economy sectors such as digital infrastructure (5G networks and data centres), cloud computing and e-commerce is expected to be strong [11].
In three layers of the digital economy, as suggested by UNCTAD (2019), investing in ICT infrastructures such as telecommunications, 5G networks, or data centres has been promoted to boost the development of other digital economy sectors [2]. Digital infrastructure will enhance the efficiency, capacity and competitiveness of other industries in the region. The evolution of digital infrastructure systems allows businesses to connect faster with lower latency. At the same time, the ability to process information faster helps businesses enhance the end-to-end digitalization of the production process [12]. Based on the development of the infrastructure system, enterprises can connect network machines and integrate new technologies such as IoT, big data, AI, etc., to support the remote real-time decision-making process and manage the production process. At the same time, businesses can enhance the digitalization of the supply chain, effectively connecting production services and other activities such as inventory management, delivery tracking, application of warehousing and logistics smart solutions. Many large IT companies and digital MNEs are increa-
Figure 2. FDI in ICT in ASEAN 2012-2019
singly investing in new cloud services. This allows customers to access online content and services in the region. These investors include Axiata (Malaysia), Singapore Telecommunications (Singtel), Telekomunikasi Indonesia, Facebook (USA) and Microsoft (USA), etc.
According to ASEAN statistical yearbook 2020, FDI in the ICT sector averaged USD 2 billion per year from 2012-2019 (figure 2). The overall trend is up, although there is a decline in 2015, especially in 2019, with nearly 98.5 %. Investment surged in 2018 with a peak of nearly USD 3 billion, with FDI from China approaching USD 2 billion. This growth can be attributed to an increase in foreign and Chinese companies setting up new or moving part of their operations to ASEAN in the context of the US-China trade war in 2018. In 2019, in general, all countries reduced investment in ASEAN. This is within the general trend of the whole Asia - Pacific region. The share of this sector in total global FDI inflows decreased from 45 % in 2018 to 35 % in 2019.
The EU, China, Japan, the US and South Korea are currently the five most prominent investors in the ICT sector in ASEAN. The EU and China are the two largest investors with a value of more than 2.2 billion USD. In 2019, all countries reduced investment in ASEAN (figure 3). The EU has a negative FDI capital of nearly USD 200 million. This may be within the general trend of the Asia-Pacific region, with the region's share of global FDI inflows falling from 45 % in 2018 to 35 % in 2019 and its share falling from 52 % to 41 %. However, there are still some countries that have increased their investment in ASEAN, such as South Korea (USD 46 million), the US (USD 128 million) and especially within ASEAN (USD 701 million).
With the deployment of 5G and growth in demand for cloud devices, investment in ICT infrastructure in the region is expected to accelerate rapidly through 2025 The 5G technology adop-
tion level in the region is expected to overgrow in ASEAN, from no subscribers in 2020 to more than 225 million by 2025 [15]. Investment demand for 5G infrastructure in ASEAN is substantial, with an estimated USD 14 billion in annual capital investment from 2020-2025 to upgrade telecommunications facilities, networks, and equipment required for 5G network.
Over the past three years, MNEs have become increasingly interested in investing in data centres in the region. Three major investor groups are contributing to the growing number of data centres, including telecom infrastructure MNEs, cloud solution companies, REITs (real estate investment funds) data centres, and operators.
In 2020, ASEAN has more than 295 data centres. According to statistics from The ASEAN Secretariat and UNCTAD (2021), up to 41 % of data centres in this region are FDI in the form of 100 % foreign-owned companies or joint ventures [12]. The number of data centres in Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia accounts for 70 % of the region. Singapore is the country with the largest number of data centres and fastest growing with 100 centres and of which up to 55 % are foreign enterprises. The majority of foreign enterprises come from China, Europe, Japan and the United States. The leaders in this market are mainly enterprises from the US, such as AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure and IBM Cloud, Zoom, Zenlayer and Digital Realty, and Facebook. Chinese companies investing in Singapore include Baidu, Huawei and Tencent, and companies from Japan include KDDI, NTT, NEC and Fujitsu. Many businesses from EU countries such as Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom are also present in Singapore. Indonesia has the second-largest number of data centres in ASEAN, of which 36 % (22 centres) are owned by foreign enterprises. Malaysia has 44 centres, of which 27 % are foreign enterprises. The number of enterprises providing data centre services in the rest
Figure 3. FDI in the ICT sector in ASEAN by country and region, 2012-2019
Figure 4. FDI in ICT sector in ASEAN and the world, 2012-2019 (Mil. USD)
Source: [14]
3500 3000 2500 2000 1500
2408 2396 2419
1827 1764 1888
1000 -636И ■ И 771
500 54 220 232
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2953
1 —701
455
■ 45
2018 2019
Intra-ASEAN ■ World
of ASEAN member countries has also increased rapidly in recent years.
Intra-ASEAN FDI plays a vital role in the total FDI and in the ICT sector. From 2012-2019, the total amount of FDI within ASEAN reached about USD 4.4 billion (USD 549 million annually) (figure 4). Especially in 2019, when the amount of FDI into ASEAN was only 45 million USD, intraASEAN FDI was USD 701 million, much higher than the rest of the regions investing in ASEAN. Notable deals in 2019 include cloud and web hosting provider Exabytes Capital Group (Malaysia) acquired Master Web Network (Indonesia), and GrabFood (Singapore) signed four cooperation agreements with Indonesian food and beverage chains, and the expansion of taxi service company Go-Jek (Indonesia) into Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. AdAsia Holdings (Singapore) expanded into Cambodia two months after expanding into Vietnam. Meal Temple (Cambodia), a technical food delivery service, expanded to Lao PDR. Validus Capital (Singapore), an SME lending platform, expanded into Indonesia. Passpod (Indonesia), a travel technology startup, has expanded into the Philippines through a joint venture agreement with payment service provider Weepay Payment Processing Corp (Philippines). Fintech startup Jit-ta (Thailand) expanded to Singapore. Acceleration programs have also branched out into ASEAN. Enterprise innovation company RISE (Thailand) expanded its artificial intelligence accelerator program to Singapore with support from Enterprise Singapore.
The digital economy is expanding rapidly and is expected to contribute significantly to ASEAN's GDP over the next few years. Currently, all ASEAN member countries are actively promoting and facilitating the development of the digital economy through national plans, institutional and policy support, and investment facilitation. In addition, countries are also working together at the
regional level to strengthen the competitiveness of the ICT industry, expand e-commerce, and facilitate digital connectivity in the region.
All ASEAN member states work to enact strategies and policies to support the development of the digital economy, including facilitating the development of ICT infrastructure while providing institutional and policy support. Some member countries have a comprehensive digital policy, adopt multiple complementary schemes and provide a wide range of institutional support. Others are just starting out and still developing their policy initiatives. Some examples of national strategies are Brunei Vision 2035 strategy; Digital Cambodia 2023 plan; Industrial 4.0 Road Map in 2018 of Indonesia; and National strategies and regulatory frameworks on ICT development of Laos. Malaysia has adopted policies to support IT infrastructure development, e-commerce and digital transformation of industries. Singapore has launched the Digital Economy Framework for Action, the Digital Government Blueprint, and the Digital Readiness Plan to make the country a leading digital economy. Thailand has implemented the Thailand 4.0 strategy to promote digital development and aims to have the digital economy contribute 25 % of the country's GDP by 2027. Vietnam does not yet have a single master plan. The Philippines does not have a single digital strategy, but rather some initiatives such as the National Broadband Plan; or Inclusive Innovation Industrial Strategy (i3S).
To implement national strategies on digital economic development, ASEAN member states also implement policies to support investment through opening up the telecommunications market. In addition, governments have policies to protect cybersecurity and consumer privacy and protect data. ASEAN countries have also implemented investment policies specifically targeting the digital sector, including promoting investment in e-commerce businesses and startups.
Regarding telecommunications liberalization policy, most ASEAN countries have done quite well. Countries in the region have also actively promoted private investment in the development of telecommunications infrastructure and expansion of broadband coverage. In most countries in the region, the growth of the telecommunications industry is driven by the private sector in strategic partnerships with foreign companies.
In terms of cybersecurity policy and data protection, ASEAN member states have developed cybersecurity laws to manage electronic transactions and protect privacy, data, and consumers. Even so, there are still gaps in the region, particularly in terms of privacy and data protection - a key driver of increasing confidence in e-commerce and the digital economy. Singapore has established a Personal Data Protection Commission to enforce and review the Personal Data Protection Act 2012. It has launched a GoSecure program that allows digital solutions companies to improve cyberspace security. Malaysia, Myanmar and the Philippines have all established National E-Commerce Road-maps and implemented online privacy and data protection laws. Cambodia has drafted e-commerce and cybercrime laws, but the 2020 draft raises concerns about increasing surveillance of internet users, privacy, and online freedom of expression.
Regarding investment policies, ASEAN countries create favourable conditions for promoting domestic and foreign investment in the digital economy. Measures are in places such as financial incentives for venture investment and technology research, exemptions from import duties and taxes, funding and capacity building for small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as the development of technology centres or digital zones such as Digital Park Thailand and Malaysia Digital Free Trade Zone. Investment facilitation efforts are also evident in e-government services, including portals for businesses and investors and online registration for new companies. The government also has preferential policies for FDI in the digital economy. For example, the government of Brunei gives preferential treatment to FDI in high-tech activities. Indonesia has opened the door to the operation of foreign e-commerce enterprises. Singapore's media development agency, Infocomm, is investing to support the country's «Smart Nation» initiative. Thailand's Investment Board has offered many tax and non-tax incentives to develop the digital economy. Vietnam is actively looking for ways to attract investment to support broadband infrastructure development by 2020 and the domestic digital ecosystem. Besides tax incentives, the government has committed financial support to the ICT sector, including the National Techno-
logy Innovation Fund (USD 47 million) and another fund to support startups in Ho Chi Minh City Minh (45 million USD).
In the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) initiative, the ICT sector is considered a priority for facilitating regional integration. The member states signed the e-ASEAN Framework Agreement in 2000 and developed ICT master plans for five consecutive years. The ASEAN ICT Master Plan 2020 (AIM 2020) outlines ASEAN's ICT development plans for the period of 2016-2020. AIM 2020 has been implemented in which ICT is one of the key economic and social drivers in ASEAN. Other major ASEAN strategic and development announcements include the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity 2025 and the Master Plan on the AEC 2025.
To support the development of e-commerce, the ASEAN Economic Ministers approved the ASEAN Action Program on E-commerce (AWPEC) 2017-2025 to facilitate e-commerce in ASEAN. The program also includes the development of an ASEAN agreement on e-commerce, which aims to promote cross-border transactions and digital connectivity by applying commercial rules on e-commerce. On July 16, 2020, the ASEAN Coordinating Committee on E-commerce (ACCEC) officially launched a website dedicated to ASEAN Online Shopping Day to promote intraregional e-commerce. In addition, in 2018, Singapore as ASEAN chair adopted the ASEAN Framework on Personal Data Protection and Digital Data Governance. The two frameworks will help promote consumer trust and digital adoption.
The prospect of ASEAN's FDI attraction in 2021 and the coming years has been improved thanks to the improvement in economic growth and the efforts of the member countries in attracting FDI. UNCTAD (2021) forecasts that FDI inflows into Asia will increase by 5-10 % [11]. The prospect of attracting FDI into ASEAN will be bright and closely follow the region's growth path. The ASEAN Secretariat and UNCTAD (2021) also indicate that the region's FDI prospects are positive due to the substantial increase in intraregional FDI flows and the region's economic growth prospects [12]. However, this will depend on the ability of member countries to control the pandemic. To revive the economy in the region, member countries will continue to invest in digital infrastructure to promote the development of other sectors of the digital economy. Companies operating in 5G, data centre and cloud-based operations are increasing investment and building more facilities in the region.
However, although all ASEAN countries are pursuing policies and initiatives to enhance digi-
tal development and at the same time increase FDI attraction in the digital economy, there are still many limitations. Countries have yet to develop a comprehensive strategy to unify plans related to the digital economy. At the same time, some countries have yet to define a single agency responsible for implementing the digital-related plan. In addition, clear and simple goals for measuring results have not yet been established. Moreover, the digital economies of ASEAN countries are at different stages of development, and their policies, laws and regulations differ significantly.
Going forward, continuing to attract FDI into digital infrastructure is crucial to drive the digital economy's development. Strengthening regional cooperation, realizing AEC-2025, and successfully implementing regional agreements and master plans will help strengthen connectivity and develop digitalization in the region. Some of the policy implications given to ASEAN countries are as follows. First, increase FDI attraction to develop appropriate digital infrastructure, upgrade from 3G and 4G to 5G. For some countries (such as CLM), building a digital ecosystem and infrastructure early is necessary. Second, countries must establish a practical roadmap and appropriate cooperation mechanism because member countries' institutional gaps and development levels are very different. Third, countries should issue specific policies to attract FDI in the ICT sector. There should be tax incentives for industries related to the digital economy; encourage foreign enterprises to invest, develop and trade new technologies, thereby building an innovation ecosystem. Fourth, in addition to developing modern telecommunications infrastructure, policies and regulations to protect and thereby promote the trust of Internet users in the digital space must be established. The cross-cutting legal and regulatory framework should cover electronic transactions; cross-border data flows, cybersecurity, data privacy, and consumer protection. Fifth, because digital MNEs require more skilled labour instead of cheap labour as before. Therefore, each citizen needs to improve his or her qualifications, and the state needs to improve the quality of education in accordance with the current economy. In addition to improving the quality of teaching, schools also have to keep up with current new technology trends.
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NGUYEN, Thi Thanh Mai - Postgraduate Student, Lecturer of the Faculty of International Business and Economics. University of Economics and Business, Vietnam National University, Hanoi. Vietnam. Hanoi. E-mail: [email protected].
NGUYEN, Tien Minh - PhD in Economics, Associate Dean of the Faculty of International Business and Economics. University of Economics and Business, Vietnam National University, Hanoi. Vietnam. Hanoi. E-mail: [email protected].
DANG, Thi Ngan - Bachelor, Faculty of International Business and Economics. University of Economics and Business, Vietnam National University, Hanoi. Vietnam. Hanoi. E-mail: ngandt585@ gmail.com.
НГУЕН, Тхи Тхань Май - аспирант, преподаватель факультета международного бизнеса и экономики. Университет экономики и бизнеса, Вьетнамский национальный университет, Ханой. Вьетнам. Ханой. E-mail: [email protected]. vn.
НГУЕН, Тиен Мин - доктор экономических наук, заместитель декана факультета международного бизнеса и экономики. Университет экономики и бизнеса, Вьетнамский национальный университет, Ханой. Вьетнам. Ханой. E-mail: [email protected].
ДАНГ, Тхи Нган - бакалавр. Университет экономики и бизнеса, Вьетнамский национальный университет, Ханой. Вьетнам. Ханой. E-mail: [email protected].
