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96Football techniques and tactics statistics case study of wyscout analytical system
UDC 796.35
Dr. Hab., Associate Professor A.A. Polozov1 PhD, Associate Professor A.V. Popovich1 Postgraduate student M.V. Kraev1 1Ural Federal University, Yekaterinburg
Corresponding author: [email protected]
Abstract
Objective of the study was to conduct a correlation analysis to substantiate the independence of evaluation of the game outcome from the increase in the number of registered tactical-technical actions of football players.
Methods and structure of the study. A total of 140 games of the leading championships were analyzed: England, Germany, Spain, Russia, France, and Italy. For each game, the Wyscout report on tactical-technical actions was studied and the total number of tactical-technical actions was calculated. The advantage in tactical-technical actions was assessed by the difference in the total number of tactical-technical actions of both teams. The assessment through the Wyscout Platform involves tactical-technical actions as such and various aggregations that are formed from the correlating characteristics.
Results and conclusions. The analysis of 140 games of the English Premier League, Primera, and Russian Premier League of the 2019/2020 season revealed a negative correlation between the total number of tactical-technical actions and game outcome (r=-0.06). Today, there are at least 10 platforms that count tactical-technical actions in toplevel team games. The commercialization of this line of work led to the desire to inflate the amount of tactical-technical actions calculated at the cost of losing the connection between the tactical-technical actions advantage and the game outcome. The authors have previously shown that with the minimum number of factors, the regression equation has the best agreement with the results of the football matches if non-correlating characteristics are taken into account. The negative correlation of the number of tactical-technical actions with the game outcome exhausts the theme of tactical-technical actions, creates a prerequisite for the transition to the game scoring through technical-tactical martial arts, assessed by their cost - impact on the match outcome.
Keywords: technical and tactical actions, football, result.
Background. Since 1980 the football analysts have extended the range of the technical and tactical actions subject to analysis [2-5] - from 8 items in the YA. Morozov (1980) method [6] to as many as 100 items in the presently popular Instat and Wyscout analytical systems - despite the fact that the higher are the technical and tactical actions numbers, the poorer they are normally correlated with the actual competitive performances.
Objective of the study was to demonstrate, by a correlation analysis, little if any correlation between
the formally fixed technical and tactical actions numbers and the actual match results.
Methods and structure of the study. We sampled for analysis 140 matches in championships of England, Germany, Spain, Russia, France and Italy. We analyzed the match technical and tactical actions reports by Wyscout to find the technical and tactical actions totals of the both teams. Then we ranked the matches in a descending order for the match hosts' advantages in the technical and tactical actions numbers and provisionally split them up into 7 intervals of
20 matches each. The total goals scored in 20 match- within the 0-1 range using equation Y = (Xi - Xmin) /
es of every interval were divided by the goals conceded to find the scoring averages. The scored points were subject to the same analysis: see Tables 1 and 2.
Results and discussion. The values were transformed for analysis to put them on a universal basis
(Xmax - Xmin).
We compared the above data with findings of one of the 1995 studies [1, 6] that used equation A = (N (+) - N (-)) / (N (+) + N (-)). Note that for a regression analysis it is recommended to select the param-
Table 1. Comparative analysis of 140 European championship matches reported by Wyscout
Match Nation Score Difference Technical and tactical actions Technical and tactical actions Technical and tactical actions difference Points
Bournemouth Man United Engl 1 0 1 844 979 -135 3
Arsenal Woolverhampton Engl 1 1 0 1045 881 164 1
Aston Villa Liverpool Engl 1 2 -1 725 1198 -473 0
Brighton Norwich City Engl 2 0 2 1037 858 179 3
Man City Southampton Engl 2 1 1 1250 707 543 3
Sheffield Barnley Engl 3 0 3 852 958 -106 3
West Ham Newcastle Engl 2 3 -1 1058 730 328 0
Watford Chelsea Engl 1 2 -1 818 1204 -386 0
Crystal Palace Lester Engl 0 2 -2 762 860 -98 0
Everton Tottenham Engl 1 1 0 865 910 -45 1
Everton West Ham Engl 2 0 2 895 857 38 3
Bournemouth Norwich City Engl 0 0 0 954 987 -33 1
Aston Villa Brighton Engl 2 1 1 929 902 27 3
Chelsea Newcastle Engl 1 0 1 1128 739 389 3
Lester Barnley Engl 2 1 1 967 745 222 3
Tottenham Watford Engl 1 1 0 1238 823 415 1
Wolverhampton Southhampton Engl 1 1 0 950 865 85 1
Crystal Palace Man City Engl 0 2 -2 723 1158 -435 0
Man United Liverpool Engl 1 1 0 783 1107 -324 1
Sheffield Arsenal Engl 1 0 1 750 1105 -355 3
Table 2. Key Wyscout indicators ranked by their correlations with the match scores and weight in the regression equation
Indicator Regression ratio |r
45s-plus ball control 0,900 0,61
Long passes 0,730 0,61
Average passes per match 0,655 0,52
High passes 0,533 0,5
Average shots per match 0,523 0,75
5-15s ball control 0,367 0,28
Ball control in % per match 0,079 0,57
Repossessions and interceptions 0,039 0,59
Ball losses in the last third 0,038 0,65
Average losses per match 0,015 0,34
Attacking/ forward passes -0,016 0,55
15-45s ball control -0,099 0,59
Ball control time per match -0,278 0,46
Passes to the last third -0,445 0,65
Contacts in the penalty area -0,569 0,6
Average ball control time -1,484 0,38
eters with the highest internal correlations. Having processed the data, we arrived at r = 0.81 correlation of the expected points with the actually scored points: A = 0.75X1 + 0.71X2 + 0.62X12.
The team advantages in the shots on goal, field control (penetration depth) and repossessions provide a sound basis for the match result forecasts. When the key factors for analysis are minimized, this equation yields the most reliable outcome. Actually the Wyscout analysis offers only two of three most important indicators and, hence, not effective enough in analyzing the defense quality and shots on goal: see Figures 1-4.
The correlation ratio for the scoring advantage and points per match was estimated at r = 0.871. The correlation ratio for the scoring advantage and technical and tactical actions totals for the 2018-2019 championships of England, Spain and Russia (140 matches) was estimated at r = -0.06. And the correlation ratio for the match points and technical and tactical actions totals for the 2018-2019 championships of England, Spain and Russia (140 matches) was estimated at r =
80 60 40 20
1975
f—
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
201E
Figure 1. Growth of the analyzed technical and tactical actions numbers since 1980
0,4 0,2 o
1975
-0,2
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
202!
Figure 2. Correlation of the technical and tactical actions numbers with the match results since 1980
-0.052. An attempt to add new technical and tactical actions indicators yielded in a poorer correlation with the match results in fact.
It should be emphasized that the technical and tactical actions totals were found virtually non-correlated with the goals scored to goals contended ratios, with the only peak found close to the zero technical and tactical actions total. Paradoxically enough, the hosts' and guests' equality in this indicator was found associated with the hosts' wins; whilst the high advantages
in the technical and tactical actions totals were found virtually non-beneficial for the teams: see Table 3.
Conclusion. The present Wyscout and Instat systems analyze individual technical and tactical actions and aggregated technical and tactical actions; with the individual technical and tactical actions including passes, shots on goals, etc.; and the aggregated values including XG, 45s-plus ball control etc. It should be noted, however, that the correlated indicators are normally aggregated. It was back in 1995 that one
o nn
S g -400
-300
-200
-100 0 100 200 Technical and tactical actions totals
300
400
Figure 3. Correlation ratios for the scoring advantages and technical and tactical actions totals for the 201920 England and Russia championship matches (n=140)
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■a c
at at
O c
u O
<A ÍJ
o
u §1-400
-300
-200
3,00
too
1,00
0,00
-100 0 100 200 Hosts' technical and tactical actions totals
300
400
50C
Figure 4. Correlation ratios for the points scored and technical and tactical actions totals for the 2019-20 England and Russia championship matches (n=140)
Table 3. Correlation between the match points and the hosts' technical and tactical actions advantage for the 2019-20 England and Russia champion-
of us found the regression equation yielding a product fairly correlated with the match result when the technical and tactical actions numbers are minimized; particularly when a special priority is given to the non-correlated indicators like the team advantages in the shots on goals, field control (penetration depth) and repossession percentages. The study found that extensions of the technical and tactical actions numbers never improve the model efficiency and dependability. Therefore, we recommend the technical and tactical
_PERSPECTIVE ^jjjjjj^
actions counts being replaced by the technical and tactical actions cost estimates i.e. their contributions to the match results/ competitive performance.
References
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2. Lyukshinov N.M. The art of training elite footballers. Teaching aid. Moscow: Sovetskiy sport, TVT Divizion publ., 2006, 432 p.
3. Koloskov V.I. et al. Results of training and performance of Soviet football players at the XXIV Olympic Games. Nauchno-sportivny vestnik. 1989. No. 1-2. pp. 54-61.
4. Polozov A.A. Rating system in team sports and single combats. Yekaterinburg: USTU-UPI publ., 1995. 110 p.
5. Polozov A.A. Upcoming match. Computer version. Teoriya i praktika fiz. kultury. 1997. No. 3. pp. 41-44.
6. Tyulenkov S.Y, Guba V.P., Prokhorov A.V. Theoretical and methodological aspects of football training management. Study guide. Smolensk: TOO IKA publ., 1997. 116 p.
ship matches (n=140)
Hosts' technical and tactical actions advantage Match points Difference in scores
380,85 0,67 0,92
196 0,88 1,23
110,1 0,76 0,93
34,45 1,22 1,21
-47,25 2,33 2,27
-137,35 0,88 1,08
-330,1 0,71 0,83
