“Flattening” the recession curve: coordinated fiscal and monetary policies against consequances of Covid-19 Текст научной статьи по специальности «Экономика и бизнес»

Lwpb^ MUPU^bS3UL

wui^|ipwbm

2019 p., ui4wpskn4 <^S<-b, pbrni.blb[ t wuuffipwbsnLpw: 2016-2018 pp. bqb[ t <^S< «US-pbpr» hbsuqnsu^wb ijbbspn-bfi hbyiwqnyinri, ui^w tfrnpäw-

qbS:

ilbpwufwspwusnL&ibp t ub-gb[ W2^uphfi swppbp bpipbb-pfi hbrfibw^wlnp iwqdwiibp-i^mpjmbbbpmd:

«CUPra-bSLbLn^» UL^JUL ^nPC.

CUtfUMUpqUUÜ <UPMUP3nh-SbSU3hL b4 TPUtfU4UPMU3hL ^U^U-PU^UL^^^LLbPL GLT^btf COVID-19-h <bSb4UL-PLbPh

P<bj t ifibmS, bpp ipbyibunLpjnLbß iubq t unbmS dp fubfi 2u-putprul IjuS uSunl unn^uu/uhu^ub Ijuid, pb^mq, übii uj[ u/us^unn^: SbyibunLpjmbp ljubqbbgbb[b utäbUfib tl blub jt tibiiyipwiiwb [uSu/ mbpusbinib: Tu ulbfi 2us blub t dpprn-iiujfib nbuiisnp ubpusbimb. iuS ru iubbu uusfißubupup ni qqnL2npbb, iuS tl nbu^snpß iihujfi:

Snti C -nppbjti'

C^^wpwnbp. isPmi iubq, unupupifi 2nii, fipuglbifimpjmb, sbsbuu^ub fnpubmS, iffrpngunnLiÄibpft ipupbp

<ubpujfib furufu^ubmpjub u/usuufriubu-SnLbbpb ujdSbp^rn fubrfip rubbb. bufri' «huppbgbb[ huSulupuifi inpp», uu/u rpu hbsUubfnl unu-puguö «sbsbuu^ub ub^Sub Ijnpp»: Lspni ubii-Sub ugbbupfig fumuu^binL huSup Suipnsbsbuu-iiub furufu^ubmpjmb S2u^nrbbpb uiisfilnpbb qnpdfi bb rbmS hup^upjmpbsujfib, rpuSulupiu-jfib U Sutiipnu/pnLrbbgfiuii furufuiubmpjmbbbpfi qnpdfifu^uq^p: Uju qnpdfifbbpb utäbuqubqlu-dujfib U iujb ibpu/nl ifipunlmS bb UUb-mS, fiuii qupqugnr bpipbbpp, npnbg huSup sbsbuu^ub ubiiSub nfiuiibpp bnybfiuii ulbfi ump bb, upöu-qubfSub ulbfi huittius hbupulnpnipjnibbbpfi u/ujSubbbpmS u/bsf t äqsbb unulb[uqmjb pfipu-fnulnpludmpjub U upqjnLbulbsnLpjub:

hh^tiu t phnpn24nLtf wjuop^w wnn^gw^w-hw^whfw^wfw^whnLpjnLhQ. ung^w|w^wh hbnw^npnLpjwh uwhdwhdwdp, dwp^whg

uwhdwhw^w^dwdp ^npö t wp^md £mw|nL hwdw^wpw^ ^mpni.^ rnwpwömdp, np^buq^ ^qb-pwqwhg^h wnnqgw^whw^wh h^wpw^npmpjm^^bp^

1 John H. Cochrane, Coronavirus monetary policy, Economics in the Time of COVID-19, CEPR Press. Mar 6, 2020, p. 105: https://voxeu.org/content/ economics-time-covid-19.

ULntutig LLfinr^ijuqtuhLuljUirtj ii|i ^n g ui nnuIYibp |i

u) ^wtfwtfwpwtyfi tynpp

q-ou^iusMbn 1

Unujbg nirnl|grr ilul^pn d}igr>giuiuiiifafcp|i

p) Sbsbuw^wb luhtydiuh tynpp

Cwdw^wpw^ U mhmbum^mh wh^dwh ^npbpQ

Uqpjmpp' Updnypfr dfigwqqwjfrh h^^wqpwd, Policy Tracker, ip^u https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/ imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19 (28.03.2020p qpmpjwdp luntyw huidui^uiyiuiuftiuih):

«umhJmhmqh&Q»: Ujl ^bp^ mum&, «hmp-pbg^mJ t hmJm^mpm^h ^npQ»: Lnyh ^bp^' mhmbum^mh f m^mf m^mhnLpjmh ^mmmu^ubuwm^bpQ ^bmf t «hmppbg-hbh» mh^nLum^bih mhmbum^mh mh^Jmh ^npQ, np^buqh mJpn^m^mh mnm2mp^h 2n^p mUm^mh ^bp^n^ «^mpm^h» mJ-pn^m^mh ^mhmh2mp^Q U ^^Imlum-^mh hmm^m&Q1 upb|n^ mhmbum^mh mh^-Jmh m J^LhmnLT-Q2:

Shsbum^mh hmJm^mpqQ mmppbp ump-jb^mhbph ^n^m^m&nLpjnLhhbph pmp^. gmhg t, nph mnn^2 t, bpp qnpSmJ bh pn|np smppbpQ: UwI|wjLi, mjdJ mjq. unLpjbl|imtibph ^ Jwuq hmp^m^hp ^mpm^rnp^h ^2 t, hu^ Jjmu Jwuq 2mpmhm^mJ t mpmm^.-pb[ nL 6mnmjni.pjni.hhbp Jmmmgb[, hh^bu hmU ^mp^bph hmJmp hm2^mp^4mJ bh mn^nuhbp, U ^^hmhum^mh ^2hnp^.hbpQ ^mmmprnJ bh hbpqpm^mft ^2nghbph ^mppbpm^mh ^6mpni.^bp: Unm2mgn^ mju ^qrn^bpQ hbhg «mhmbum^mh ^m-pm^Jmh» m^pjmph bh:

Shmbum^mh «^mpm^h» 2T.pmjh mnm-2hh o^m^Q ^^hmhum^mh ^2hnp^.hbph bh, npnhg m^2U ^mpn^ bh &mnmhm[ hpmg-4b[h^pjmh ^h^^phbp: Ujmu o^m^Q uqm-

nm^ m hbp^pm^bph bh: b^ mju hpm^h-6m^Q ^mpn^ t ^b^mpjmpb[ mhmbum^mh ^mpfmqh^h m^bih bp^mp dmJmhm^n^, fmh hmJm^mpm^h t: Uju nhu^bph hbpfn1 mhmbumqbmhbph mp^bh mhmqmhqmJ bh hmJm2^mphmjhh mhmbumpjmh hmJmp mp^mqS^nn. «V»-m5U, «U»-m5U, «L»-m5U, «I»-m5U mjLQhmpmhfmjhh ugbhmphbphg ^bp2hh bp^muh hpm^mhmgJmh hm^mhm-^mhmpjmh ^SmgJmh Jmuhh3:

Upmhghg mnm2hhh mpmq ^bpm^mhq-hm^ t- bhpm^p^nLJ t, np mnn^m^m-hm^mh 6qhmdm^g hbmn mhmbum^m-pnqtibpti mh^2m^bu Limtigtibti hpbhg qnp-SmhbmpjmhQ, U mhmbuni.pjni.hQ ^bpm-^.mnhm hp phm^mhnh ^sm^h (ppbh-^hh): bp^pnp^h n-mh^m^ ^bpm^mhq

hm^ t, bppnp^Q1 mh^mJQ (^b^pbuhmh): Um^mjh, m^hm^smhqm^npQ «I»-h t, «mQh-

mbum^mh ^mpm^h» mpmmm^np 2p2mhQ, nph ^b^fmJ hm^' mhQh^hmm ^bp^n^ t mJpn^2m^mh ^mhmh2mp^Q, m^m ^hhmhum^mh hmrn^mSh hpmg^b-Lh^pjmh ^mp6mdm J^bm ^h^hphbpQ ^bp-m6mJ bh ^^mpmhm^mpjmh ^h^ph: <m-2np^ ^mppbpm2p2mhmJ mq^m^Q hbm t ^n^rnhg^mJ mhmbumpjmh hpm^mh hmm-

2 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Flattening the pandemic and recession curves, Mitigating the COVID Economic Crisis: Act Fast and Do Whatever It Takes, March 18, 2020, CEPR Press: https://voxeu.org/content/mitigating-covid-eco-nomic-crisis-act-fast-and-do-whatever-it-takes

3 Nouriel Roubini, A Greater Depression?. Project Syndicate. Mar 24, 2020: https://www.project-syndicate.org/ commentary/coronavirus-greater-great-depression-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-03

4mS U ^pmhrnJ ^[nLqJmh mhlmnm^m-pbLh qnpSQhpmgQ:

2mpqmgmS bplphbpQ, mju mnmJn^, m^hm^S nhu^bph bh lpni.J, fmhh np mjumb| mhmbumpjmh hpmlmh U $hhmh-umlmh hmm^mShbpQ ^mhjmu^mS bh1 mnmhShh-mnmhShh qpbpb ^mhbhm[n4 «mh4.mmhqn1.pjmh pmpdhlhbp»: ^n^mpb-hQ1 mju bplphbph mhbh wjt nhu^bpQ ^LnL qnp&hfm^mqJ: ^hhmhum^mh hhu-mhmmmhbph mjumb| «цw2mцwh4w& bh» Ibhmpnhmlmh pmhlbph ln|^g, npnhf mhumhJmhm^ml bplmpmdmJlbm hpmg-bh ^nummhrnJ ^hhmhum^mh hmm^mShh: hul ^hhmhum^mh hmm^mSQ lmpn| t wjt hpmg4b[^PJ^hh oqmmqnp-Sb[ hbhg ^mnm^mpmpjmhQ ^.mplm^npb-[m hmJmp, nph t[, hp hbpphh, ^bmm^mh Sm^ubpn^ l^pmhh mJpn^mlmh ^m-hmh2mp^Q4:

hpm^h^m^h mj[ t qmpqmgn| bplphb-ph ^b^fmJ, fmhh np mjumb| 4bpQ hlm-pmqp^mS nhu^bphh qmJmp^^J t Uu IQ: Lbp^pn^hbpQ 2mpmphbph QhpmgfmJ mju bplphbphg mp^bh ^mpu bh pbpb[ mh-hm^m^b^ Sm^mLn^i 83 J[pT U.UL ^n[mp ^m^hmm[5: Uju ^mpmqmjmJ, ^6mpmjhh hm2^b^2nh ^h^hphbph mh^rnum^bLh bh: UhmdmJmhml, qmpqmgn| bplphbph hpbhg ^bh lmpn| pnijL mmL oqmmqnpSb[ hnLjh qnpShfm^mqJQ, hh qmpqmgmShb-pQ: lunufq, Jmuhm^npm^bu, bplmpmdmJlbm hpmg^bLh^Pjmh mhnb[h hbpmp-Irn^bph Jmuhh t T-b^h ^hhmhum^mh hm-Jm^mpq6: h mmppbpmpjmh qmpqmgmS bplphbph, qmpqmgn^hbpQ ^bh lmpn| hmU

^n2np Sm^mLh ^n^mnmpjmhhbp 4bpghb[ hbpfhh ^mpmfh 2^^mjhg, fmhh np wjt= ^hun^ Hp6mm4h ^hhmhum^mh hmJm-Impqh hpmg^bLh^Rl^hQ, ^h^T-bn Ibhmpnhmlmh pmhlbph mjumb| ^m^mqmhg umhJmhm^ml hhmpm^npmpjmh mhbh bplmpmdmJlbm hpmg^bLh^Pjmh 4pm mq-Tbgmpjmh mbum^bmhg U, np^bu Imhnh, ^2mJmmJ bh ^mp6mdmJ^bm qnpShfhb-

pn4:

QhmjmS mju umhJmhm^m^m^bphhi qmpqmgn| bplphbpQ ^bmf t hmlmqT-bh mhmbumlmh mh^JmhQ, fmhh np «I»-m5U mh^Jmh nhu^bpQ lmpn| bh hjmpm^m-hmhmL: Uju SnL|mlhg TnLpu qmLnL hmJmp ^mpUnp^mJ t ^2mqqmjhh ^hhmhum^mh ^mqJm^bp^mpjmhhbph T-bpQ, npnhg ^mp-Im^npJmh hhmpm^npmpjmhhbphg ^bmf t oqm^bh qmpqmgn| bplphbpQ:

UjT mbum^bmhg, 2b2mmTp4nLJ t mQh-

mbumlmh ^pmhJmh ^2ngmnm^bph hmugbmlmhni.pjni.hh m mpTjnLhm^bmni.-pjrnhQ, U mjT ^pmhhbpQ ^bh ^mpn^ LhhbL hmJQhThmhmp m qmhq^mSmjhh, hh^^bu, ophhm^i UUL-mJ t: Shmbum^mh ^2ngm-nm^bph hm^Jmsm^mh ^mm^bpQ mmp-pbp bp^phbpmJ pbp^mS t m^jmum^ 1-mJ:

U^jmum^hg m^hhmjm t TmnhmJ, np mhmbum^mh ^pmhhbph m^hmqmhq-^mSmjhh U hmJmmmpmS phmjp bh ^pmJ UUL-mJi <LU 10%-h ^m^n^, npnhghg, qnpShm^mhmJ, ^bmf t oqm^h jmprnfmh-^jmp fm^mfmgh: <mJm5mjh UU< ^mjfmJ mn^m mb^b^wm4^PJwh7l <LU-mJ hm^m-h2^mS Sm^mLhbph hmp^mpjm2b-

mmj hh ^mpbph m^bLh ^S t ^mjh ^m-

4 Mohamed A. El-Erian, The Race Between Economics and COVID-19. Mar 26, 2020: https://www.project-syndicate. org/commentary/covid19-will-change-economics-three-ways-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2020-03

5 Kristalina Georgieva on Human, Economic Costs of Covid-19. March 23, 2020: https://www.imf.org/en/News/ Podcasts/All-Podcasts/2020/03/23/md-covid-19-g20-statement

6 Цwp6wdwJ^bmmJ um 6h2mJ l|qnpSmTph mpdmpmjhh 4pm, nphh ¿hm^mqTbL^ Tb^E^J mh^m-um^b[h bh ^n^mpdbgh mpdmjph U hbpJmS^n^ m^pmhghbph qhbph w6q, hul hmlmqTbLm Tb^gmJ' hpmg-

Ipfimmm^ m ^gmqqmjhh ^mhmumhbph h^mqmJQ (mju ^hThphbphg mlhhmjmnpbh qbpS bh ^gmqqmjhh mpdmjphbp pn^mpln^ Ibhmpnhmlmh pmhlbpQ): bplpnpT* ^n^h pmqmjh w6q ^hhmhum-lmh Imj^hm^jmh ^hThphbp lwnw2wghh hhmpm^np gmSp ^hhmhumlmh lwpqw^whmpJwh ^mmfim-nn^, U 4bp2w^bu' mh^mum^bLh iTmnhm hbpghh ^mhmhgmpln^ ^wJJwhw4np4wS qhmfih mpmqmgmJQ: hppU mu^mSh m^mgmjg lmpn^ t SmnmjbL hbm^nphpTmjhh bplphbph (wjt p4nLJ' íwJwumwhh <mhpm-^bmmpjmh) n^ ^.wit. whgJW[h' hm^npT Tmph 90-mlmhhbph 4bp2h ^bmmlmh pjmgbh ^mlmumpTh Jnhb-mmp ^hhmhum^npJmh U Tpm ^mummgh hbmUmhghbph ^npfiQ:

7 IMF, Policy Responses to COVID-19. Mar 2020: https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Respons-es-to-COVID-19

2020/1 . uirPbm вь^ьчич-ьг . amberd bulletin . амберд бюллетень

C-'I

с d 3

O) с OJ

3

■b 3

■Д d-

43

3

с с -з'

О)

3

■Д

3

•g с

J3 ■Д

г

С

3

Ю см o> 3

if il fi-J

i d- =

a

E Ë

& 5 3

3 3 3 д j 3-Е; S Л. с 3 -Э" 3

W =5 3 ^=3

p

a

"S: 3

3 E 1 Ê-S"

3 а ïf i-1

fil = S

Salll

Héé!

д = =0-J ¡S

3 ? см 3

£ 3 3

jt 3-1 111

rJ

s =1

u-и

Il "fi.

3 t & 3

-S 3

3 "£. г

5 3m

E . 35 -g с ö- a й

ai 3 q a" 3

3 = 3

c- 3 i # 3

il -С _=У ДЗ -O

3 "Ä - 3 3

s Ö-

з| ? &

С _Z5"

1!

il Ю q

■=§ I

-С. с

3 =

3" 3 3 3

Ë J ^ "З'З 3

■lit

1p lit

3 5

3 i j3 ■C.

CY

3 fi-

. ! ¡1 Ol 3 Л

J 3 -3 Лъ^-Э-н л-j

3

o -i Ю =

Ю" 3" J=3 J 5- 3 3 !§-§■? I 3 ï Ë.

з -С- 5 с

^ oi^i J 3 -р i

3

¿ ci- Ь — Л- с

i-

3 #

_=r

- 5

ti CNJ С

Ju j

с 3

5Ц = =&

ÎI

-j 3 Ç 3 3

J3 г? д -D 3 ^

tSll 5 III

Ю ^ ■з' с.

§ w

з i

с. с. -<3 —

■с- с g

J3- 3 dl

■C- J-i

3 I

о с с. 3

с j

jJü "i: Ё ^ л °î

■з^з j?

2" с

: i

■ Ц =

Ë.-S-a> 3

5-3 Ж

- tf 3

з з а

—

■в Й

"= -Н

Ё ^ Д 3 E|3f

е а =

з ^ з с.

"S fiS Hfl

è 3 |з

Л -5- 3

é £ с

^ s: ^ з з fq £ s

fi-: f l-lf

з

с.

«я

Ё ^ S-1

J? 3"° ¡ J 3 3 i

1 - f-° я -Э -D

J с. ^

Й- 3 §- a

gIS

Й ^ с 3 "i 3 ö-

M = i

3 I J -§-

j 3 _ 3 а í J 3 ¿-j

¿35

^ J

S -0 S И'

£L

î g1 -

Oi 3

ë ^ 3

i¡-J 3

I-& «I

ai с J3

3 I 3

=1 i с

3 3 J

■f 3 , fe 3 ^ з Е-^ 3 j 3 ю ^ -с

-Iff

E

£

3 3

3

? J

Ö- 3 1 . 4 s 3 Ë -n t^

ill-3 Ë. S

1lf =

Pi: ^ -

C. Ql

Л

§j 3 '

&

• g-B

: J J C f3

r=>

I ^ ib.

I 5 3|

i ■&-§■ E

f I -§" s

H -§■-& í-f f S

- з ■=

I год 3

3 Ä? I л <4 ci

3 3

' I 3" Щ,

Г с ai

=) fi- -

i

j 3-D E, с. =

3 & ö-

S — ^ ■•

£ a 1 I

5 S сл

S-1 J s I ¡4 I

Л 3 с

J 13 с 3

3 J -?1 3 3

3 'з з с.

3 Ё э-Э

с

3 Л Л

3

3

с i

5 ^ ^ ^ 5

^=7- Л" С. M

Ol ^ J

-о

I lí

3 "3

I &

3 лэ с о-1

-i-I

3" л

=

fi ft

J Л а щ -í^ Ё С

Е

-Е É - -

Е- СП : 3 л- ! ^ 3 -и е

^П1

Ш|

nil

---^ =г

3

СГ>

3 -i

3

t 11 3 1 S ? I s

= 3

S 3

? J J=

S-& 3

tll f g" 3 = 1-&.. ■S-f ^'З

tl-&

ftf I ^ = # 3

3 -Э Л

- 3

f ™ -à»

s &

E, 3

С

л s '

3 3 .

fil oj ai ~

S. 3 a c. S- 3

3 3 ,

3

c. -i

3 3

û; I

."О

S

I

--û S-

э &

э

?

о-сг Э

I

1э

-ь S s-o

з о

^pnLd1 ^q^mL 1З%: 2шpqшgn^ ЬplQp-t^phti шЦЬф p^npn2 t ^^U. 2-З sn-lnu qtшhшmL.nrç. ^2шйтт.р;|П1.^, npt ш-L|ЬLh phpш^шL.npL.шö t Т-Ь^ ш^1ш2шт тш^шб n|npmtЬp U Qt^ЬpmpJmttЬp, U ш^Ьф hшЛum' rç.pшJшL.шplшJht U Jшl-pnцpm^ЬtghшL ф2шJmmpJшt «бш^ш-rnmd»;

<шJшumшth ш2ш^gmpJшt фшрЬр! mum^шuhpL.шö ЬplptЬph 2шpfmJ ш^-1ш2шт tJшtmpJmttЬp ni^h tumnthшJh8 фшpЬpht: ЩтЬ^ Uu hh^ш^шt 2Ь2mQ rç.pL.ni.J t Lwp^Lnp^dp mtmЬumpJmt hpшgL.ЬLh^PJшt tЬpшplJшt U qшpqшg-Jшt öpшqpЬph шпш2tшhЬppnLpJшt фш, uш^шJt, hшpшpЬpшlшt ^ШФП^ ф шtqшJ qЬpшqшtgmJ t ^ lшпшL.шpnL= р|ш! ^ш^ш^шб <LU 7%-Q1

2%-h hшЛJшm: UhшdшJшtшl, tumn-

ЬLpшqnmm шtrç.шJ t, U ЬpЦph ^ш^ш^! hшJш^шpqQ, hш-

Jp, ^oqmLh ЬФпщш1ш! l^mpn^^! pшt^h ^■pшJшЦшplшJht U Jш^pnцpm^ЬtghшL ^рш^ш! qnpôhf-^phg:

4Ьp2ht hшpgmJ « l^mpn^^! pшt^Q ^.Ьп ¿h lhpшпЬL htшpшLnp Jшlpn-цpm^ЬtghшL U rç.pшJшL.шplшJht qnpôhf-^p: Ut2m2m, Т^ш hh^ш^шt щштбшп!

pшt^шjht hшJш^шpqmJ шп^ш pшpöp hpшgL.ЬLhnLPjnLtt t U, pЬpUu, шp-drn^jht 2nL^jni.J |^gni.gh£ |mpni.J £ш-пш2шgtЬ|nL JmшhnqmpJmtQ: Ц^п^ш!-H^pÖ, ^^^pnip^! hшJmшpшpшö qnp-ôh^ph шp^.JmtшLЬm ш2^штш!рQ pшt-hшJш^шpqh pшpöp tЬpqpшL.Lш-ômpjmt t чшhшt2^J, hЬmUшpшp, ^p-бшdшJlЬm hpшg4ЬlhmpJшЬ mpшJшrç.-pni.^ m щшhnLumшLnpJшt tnpJшmhL.Q

^pUnp тЬ^ шJpn^2 qnpôh^^q-ф «qh^hngnLJ»:

nL2шqpшL. t, np Ышп^ш^^ ph^p-lni.J Ь! ^U 1ш.тш1щф! 1Ь^шрп2ш-1щфЬ hшJш^шpqh hшm^шgm^ЬpQ dш-Jшtш^шL.npшцЬu uшпЬgtЬ|nL hшpgQ, npt шp^hш^шt t ^U <шJшumшth hш-

Jшp, рш^ np m^huh qnpôhfh ^ш-nmJQ npn2ш^hnpЬt IpnLimg^h pjnL-2Ьтш^! hшJш^шpqh фш шп^ш 6^2^JQ ^ш2ф шп!Ь[пЦ, np JnLÖnL^Ьph JшuQ цЬтш^ш! pjni^hg t hpшlшtшgL.nLJ), ш^ш lodшtrç.шlh JшutшL.np uщшпJшtt m tЬp^pm^Ьpht:

<шJшumшtt шпшJdJ ^h oqmшqnpômJ шjtчhuh hшp^шJht qnpöhftЬp, npntf шJdJ шЛtш|ШJtnpЬt ^hpшпL.n^tЬphg Ь1: ü.2NшphmJ ш^mhLnpЬt lhpшпLnLJ t ^U Lшp^Ьph ^hJшg цЬтш^ш! Ьpш2^hßh qnpôhfQ: иш^ш]!, qnpöhftЬph Qtmpm-pjmtQ щЬтр t hшL.шuшpш^2пLh tшU ^шpбшdшJ^Ьm U Ьp^шpшdшJ^Ьm hшp-^шpJm2ЬmшJht

шцшhnL.Jшt hЬm, hu^ LЬp2hthu mЬuш-^Ьmhg Lшp^шLnpm^ шЛtшtцшumш-Lnpt t, еш1ф np, ш][ hшLшuшp цшJJшt-tЬpmJ, ^шпшLшpmpJшt цшpmfh q^m ^hpfti ш^фпфп^ t ^^J: Uj^ шпmJnL., pЬpUu, шпш^Ь[ tш^QtmpЬLh t Qi^i^t^ PJm2ЬmшJht Lшp^шLnpJшt mtmЬumpJmt hpшgL.ЬLhmPJшt tЬpшp^-Jшt öшL.ШLtЬpQ ^шJ ^hpшпЬL цЬтш^ш! Ьpш2^hßh qnpôhfQ, рш! hшp^ШJht шpmntmpJmttЬph: ^pшtg oqmшqnpö-Jшt t[ ^шpUnpL.^J Ь! ^hum

phpш^шLnpL.шömpJmtQ U mшppЬp qnp-öhftЬphg фшdшJшtш^ oqmL.ЬLm htш-pшLnpmpJшt pшgшпmJQ:

8 2B.G3.2G2G p. ^pmpJшJp' tumnbh'MjnLJ qpшtgLшô L.шpш^Jшt ^Ь^ßЬpQ Ь! 645 Jшp^ (Qt^hшtmp

2пФ2 1З J[! Jшp^), U Ьpl|pnLJ шpmш^шpq hpшLhбш^ t hшJmшpшpLшô:

1. IMF, Policy Responses to COVID-19. Mar 2020: https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19.

2. IMF, Kristalina Georgieva on Human, Economic Costs of Covid-19. March 23, 2020: https://www.imf.org/en/News/Podcasts/ All-Podcasts/2020/03/23/md-covid-19-g20-statement.

3. John H., Cochrane Coronavirus monetary policy, Economics in the Time of COVID-19, CEPR Press. Mar 6, 2020: https://voxeu.org/ content/economics-time-covid-19.

4. Mohamed A. El-Erian, The Race Between Economics and COVID-19. Mar 26, 2020: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commen-

tary/covid19-will-change-economics-three-ways-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2020-03.

5. Nouriel Roubini A., Greater Depression?. Project Syndicate. Mar 24, 2020: https:// www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/coro-navirus-greater-great-depression-by-nouri-el-roubini-2020-03.

6. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Flattening the pandemic and recession curves, Mitigating the COVID Economic Crisis: Act Fast and Do Whatever It Takes, CEPR Press, March 18, 2020: https://voxeu.org/content/mitigating-covid-economic-crisis-act-fast-and-do-whatev-er-it-takes.

Нарек КАРАПЕТЯН

Аспирант АГЭУ

«СГЛАЖИВАЯ» КРИВУЮ СПАДА: КООРДИНИРОВАНИЕ ФИСКАЛЬНОМ И ДЕНЕЖНО-КРЕДИТНОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ ПРОТИВ ПОСЛЕДСТВИЙ СОУЮ-19

Государственная политика сейчас имеет две цели: «сглаживание кривой пандемии» и затем возникнутой из-за этого «кривой спада». Чтобы избежать резкого спада, деятели макроэкономической политики используют фискальные, монетарные и макропруденциальные инструменты. Они наиболее интенсивно и широко используются в США, но развивающиеся экономики, которые сталкиваются с еще большими рисками, но имеют более скромные возможности реагирования, должны стремиться применять максимально целевые и эффективные меры.

Ключевые слова: внезапная остановка, шок предложения, ликвидность, экономический стимул, комплекс мер

Narek KARAPETYAN

PhD student at ASUE

"FLATTENING" THE RECESSION CURVE: COORDINATED FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES AGAINST CONSEQUANCES OF COVID-19

Public policy makers now have two targets: to flatten the "pandemic curve", then the "recession curve", which is being triggered by the first policy. To avoid from drastic downturn, macroeconomic policy makers deploy fiscal, monetary and macroprudential tools. These are most intensively and widely used in USA, but emerging markets, who face even bigger risks but have more modest potential of response, should aim to apply the most targeted and effective measures.

Key words: sudden stop, supply shock, liquidity, economic stimulus, package of measures