Научная статья на тему 'Financial market of Russian Far East: potential for cooperation with Asian partners'

Financial market of Russian Far East: potential for cooperation with Asian partners Текст научной статьи по специальности «Экономика и бизнес»

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Ключевые слова
РОССИЙСКИЙ ДАЛЬНИЙ ВОСТОК / РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫЙ ФИНАНСОВЫЙ РЫНОК / ФИНАНСОВАЯ ИНТЕГРАЦИЯ / РОССИЙСКИЕ ДЕПОЗИТАРНЫЕ РАСПИСКИ / АЗИАТСКИЕ БАНКИ / RUSSIAN FAR EAST / REGIONAL FINANCIAL MARKET / FINANCIAL INTEGRATION / RUSSIAN DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS / ASIAN BANKS

Аннотация научной статьи по экономике и бизнесу, автор научной работы — Krivelevich Maksim

The banking system of the Russian Far East consists of regional banks and branches of large national banks that divide the market according to their competitive advantages. The system stays in balance and shows very limited exposure to credit risks. Branches of Moscow based companies are major providers of insurance coverage and financial services in the region. Russia started trading Chinese currency for rubles on the Moscow Stock Exchange and this experiment proved to be successful. Russian banks received special privileges from China and look forward to increasing the level of cooperation. If foreign banks and insurance companies are allowed to open full-function branches, Asian financial institutions will quickly penetrate the region. But there will be no fast decrease in credit and insurance rates. The side effect will be a decrease in the average level of deposit rates for the population. It can be expected that a considerable part of savings will be entrusted to the Russian and foreign brokers for investment in securities that create opportunities for non-sponsored programs of Russian Depositary Receipts in the shares of Asian corporations. A more probable scenario assumes continued national protectionism in financial sector. Therefore special attention should be paid to internal growth of the regional economy. Enactment of the planned programs of tax privileges will create conditions for consolidation of new manufacturing projects. Such projects can be created as public corporations through IPO processes. In this case currency savings of the population of the Far East which are now concentrated in deposits in regional banks can partially be transformed into investments. At the same time it will create a secondary over-the-counter market of regional shares and gradually there will appear conditions for forming a regional commodities and securities exchange.

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Текст научной работы на тему «Financial market of Russian Far East: potential for cooperation with Asian partners»

Кривелевич Максим Евсеевич — кандидат экономических наук, доцент ШЭМ ДВФУ, г. Владивосток. Старший научный сотрудник Института экономических исследований ДВО РАН, E-mail: [email protected]

ФИНАНСОВЫЙ РЫНОК РОССИЙСКОГО ДАЛЬНЕГО ВОСТОКА: ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ ВЗАИМОДЕЙСТВИЯ С ПАРТНЕРАМИ ИЗ АТР

Традиционно региональный финансовый рынок понимается как сочетание банковской системы, биржевых рынков, небанковских кредитных организаций и страхового рынка. Во всех упомянутых категориях регион АТР занимает ведущие позиции. Азиатская банковская система демонстрирует высокий и возрастающий уровень интеграции с США и другими рынками, а азиатский рынок ценных бумаг -превосходящий темп роста.

Банковская система российского Дальнего Востока состоит из региональных банков и отделений крупных национальных банков, разделивших рынок согласно конкурентным преимуществам. Система пребывает в равновесии, а кредитные риски ограничены. Филиалы крупных российских компаний являются основными поставщиками страхового покрытия и финансовых услуг в регионе. Россия начала биржевую торговлю китайской валютой, а российские банки получили соответствующие льготы с китайской стороны и планируют расширение сотрудничества.

В качестве возможного сценария интеграции финансового рынка Дальнего Востока в АТР можно рассмотреть либерализацию на национальном уровне доступа на рынки финансовых услуг. Если иностранным банкам и страховым компаниям разрешат открытие полноценных филиалов, азиатские финансовые учреждения быстро станут оптовым поставщиком финансовых ресурсов и страховой защиты.

При этом не произойдет быстрого снижения ставок по кредитам и страховых тарифов, банки будут получать большую доходность в качестве платы за риск инвестирования в Россию. Снижение процента по депозитам населения сделает психологически некомфортным размещение сбережения по ставкам значительно ниже уровня потребительской инфляции, вследствие чего значительная часть сбережений будет доверена российским и иностранным брокерам для инвестирования в ценные бумаги. Это создаст возможность для запуска не-спонсируемых программ Российских Депозитарных Расписок на акции азиатских корпораций.

Более вероятный сценарий предполагает сохранение национального протекционизма в финансовом секторе. Введение масштабной программы налоговых льгот создаст условия для консолидации промышленных проектов. Такие проекты могут создаваться в качестве корпораций в режиме народного IPO. Тогда валютные сбережения населения Дальнего Востока, могут частично преобразоваться в инвестиции. Будет создан вторичный внебиржевой рынок ценных бумаг и, возможно, появится региональная биржевая торговая площадка. В любом случае банковская система региона не пострадает, так как она, в целом, адекватна запросам рынка.

Ключевые слова: Российский Дальний Восток, региональный финансовый рынок, финансовая интеграция, Российские депозитарные расписки, азиатские банки.

Maksim E. Krivelevich, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, School of Business and Public Administration, Far Eastern Federal University; Senior Researcher of the Economic Studies Institute, Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. E-mail: [email protected]

FINANCIAL MARKET OF RUSSIAN FAR EAST: POTENTIAL FOR COOPERATION

WITH ASIAN PARTNERS

The banking system of the Russian Far East consists of regional banks and branches of large national banks that divide the market according to their competitive advantages. The system stays in balance and shows very limited exposure to credit risks. Branches of Moscow based companies are major providers of insurance coverage and financial services in the region.

Russia started trading Chinese currency for rubles on the Moscow Stock Exchange and this experiment proved to be successful. Russian banks received special privileges from China and look forward to increasing the level of cooperation.

If foreign banks and insurance companies are allowed to open full-function branches, Asian financial institutions will quickly penetrate the region. But there will be no fast decrease in credit and insurance rates. The side effect will be a decrease in the average level of deposit rates for the population. It can be expected that a considerable part of savings will be entrusted to the Russian and foreign brokers for investment in securities that create opportunities for non-sponsored programs of Russian Depositary Receipts in the shares of Asian corporations.

A more probable scenario assumes continued national protectionism in financial sector. Therefore special attention should be paid to internal growth of the regional economy. Enactment of the planned programs of tax privileges will create conditions for consolidation of new manufacturing projects. Such projects can be created as public corporations through IPO processes. In this case currency savings of the population of the Far East which are now concentrated in deposits in regional banks can partially be transformed into investments. At the same time it will create a secondary over-the-counter market of regional shares and gradually there will appear conditions for forming a regional commodities and securities exchange.

Key words: Russian Far East, regional financial market, financial integration, Russian Depositary Receipts, Asian banks.

Financial Markets of Asia-Pacific Region on the Way to Further Integration

Traditionally the financial market is understood to be composed of a banking system, exchange markets, non-banking credit organizations and the insurance market. In all of these categories the APEC region occupies leading positions. Asia is gradually becoming the major source of resources for the world financial system because of its better general position in international trade and investment markets in post crisis times.

Banking systems of Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore are major net exporters of capital. For the last two years difference between claims and liabilities to non-residents rose 15% in Hong Kong and 13% in Japan. For the same time the "long" position of Singapore decreased by 78% (Table 1).

Table 1.

Claims less Liabilities to non-residents (all instruments) Mi lions of US dollars

2012-Q4 2011-Q4 2010-Q4

Hong Kong SAR 260487 231697 225059

Japan 1883279 1802801 1665031

Singapore 7460 11165 34520

South Korea -83707 -91360 -93116

India -77488 -54873 -69955

Malaysia -22702 -20698 -15213

Indonesia -20234 -10433 1259

Source of Data: BIS [1]

Banking systems of India and South Korea occupy the other end of the scale. But the situation in these two economies is different. India is a pure net importer of financial investments due to industrial growth that requires long term credits and project financing. Korea has enough local financial resources to invest in industrial projects; its net position is an off-set of a giant

equity market concentrated over a Stock Exchange. The total financial position of these countries is the sum of loans and deposits, debt securities and other instruments. (Table 1)

Table 2

Claims less Liabilities to non-residents (loans and deposits only), amounts _outstanding (Millions of USD)__

2012-Q4 2011-Q4 2010-Q4

Hong Kong SAR 40647 28845 9572

South Korea 25778 -29101 -36401

Indonesia -7799 -5749 4134

Malaysia -8794 -10204 -5973

Singapore -42750 -51827 7366

India -52899 -37335 -44943

Japan -158944 -2584 -130022

Source of Data: BIS [1]

Japan demonstrates large negative values (Table 2) due to the effect of massive currency devaluation. This trend began in the beginning of 2013, and the Yen has lost more than 20% against USD. If this trend continues, the dollar value of the accounts in Yen will continue declining. The banking system of South Korea improved its position in "loans and deposits" category dramatically for the last few years reflecting financial health of the national economy.

Designed by the Bank for International Settlements, ultimate risk basis tracks foreign claims of banks headquartered in individual reporting countries. Applying this indicator to the Japanese banking system gives some considerable hints about Asian banking (Table 3).

Table 3

International Bank Claims for Japan 2012 Q4 - Ultimat e Risk Basis (millions of US dollars)

Claims All countries Total Claims by Countries

Non-bank private sector 1639311 United States China

Public sector 1003574 1506134 65280

Banks 373576 India South Korea

Credit commitments 304811 26468 56255

Guarantees extended 87637 Russia

Derivatives contracts 37980 16547

Total 3446889

Source of Data: BIS [1]

First of all, the United States holds 43.7% of claims on Japanese banks, while China, Hong Kong and Singapore hold 1.9%,1.9% and 1.7% respectively. The share for South Korea is even smaller, 1.6% but that is 2 times bigger than Indian's 0.8% or 3 times bigger than Russia's 0.5%. To some extent a similar picture appears for other developed economies in the region. The region's financial system is deeply integrated with USA and Europe. In some sectors neighboring countries are closely connected; Singapore's share of derivatives contracts is 3.5% while China controls 4.5% in interbank claims and 6.5% in "Guarantees extended".

Financial markets in Asia show positive trends in both traditional banking systems and stock exchange markets. According to the World Federation of Exchanges data, Asian-Pacific securities market capitalization in March 2013 was 31% of the total financial market of the world and demonstrated a one year growth rate of 8.2% (in USD), which is better than 7.8% for total WFE statistics [2]. The highest growth was seen in comparatively small national markets; the Stock Exchange of Thailand and Philippine SE added more than 40% (March/March) to their capitalization. Mid-size markets such as the Indonesia SE and Singapore Exchange rose more

than 15%, while among majors only Hong Kong, the region's second biggest exchange, grew well with a 11% increase in capitalization.

At the same time the picture for the largest player, the Japan Exchange Group, is distorted by the rapid change in USD/JPY exchange rate. Its dollar capitalization increased only 7.2%, but in local currency this was equal to 22.5% growth which is better than the benchmark NYSE Euronext (US) increase of 14%. The overall excess of liquidity in Asia can be traced by the investment flows channeled through the Exchange; this indicator's dynamics are positive for the region.

Russian Banks Find Opportunities as Borrowers and as Home Banks Abroad

for Russian Importers to Asia

Russian financial institutions have undertaken visible efforts to enter Asian financial markets. One of Russia's largest banking groups, VTB, operates in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and India. VTB's corporate plan aims to be the leading financial institution serving Russian companies in Asia. VTB regards this market as highly promising and expects return-on-equity of 15% or more in every region of operations [3].

Russia is a country with very expensive funds, which is not a pure market phenomenon, but more the consequence of state policy. Yield curves for state bonds exceed 6.5% for 3 year maturity and 7% for 9 -10 years. Strict requirements for the state pension fund to invest most of its reserves in state securities, to ensure safety of investments, forces the government to pay high interest on these bonds.

Given stable dynamics of national currency, this policy opens windows of opportunity for different carry trade deals. Asia, with a traditionally inexpensive capital market, seems to be the perfect region for developing such activity. VTB, for example, issued bonds in Singapore nominated in local currency. VTB sees its strategy as an attempt not only to get the best rates, but also to deal with investors who would not otherwise buy Russian Eurobonds. The target markets are those with highly developed financial infrastructure, especially pension funds and insurance industries [4]. Typically, pension funds have long term obligations in local currency, so Russian banks with high ratings can borrow long money in Asian currencies then convert proceedings to rubles even if they can not invest these funds in a credit line to Russian importers.

An important step for further penetration of VTB into the Chinese market was made in 2010 when the bank was given official status as market-maker in the Ruble-Yuan exchange rate and was allowed currency trades on the stock-exchange as well as trans-border currency operations. Operations assisting cross-border trades of the VTB branch in Khabarovsk increased 60% in 2011 compare to 2010 [5].

"Vostochny" Bank, one of the initiators of listing Yuan contracts on the Moscow Exchange, is also very active in its expansion in Chinese financial markets. The bank offers its clients fixed commissions on transactions to and from China which has helped "Vostochny" occupy one of the leading positions in servicing cross-border trade and cash operations. Among partner banks of "Vostochny", the Bank Of China, the Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Ltd. and others operate accounts in CNY and USD; the Agricultural Bank Of China CO., LTD also operates accounts in Russian currency [6].

Active cross-border trade of consumer goods in the Russian Far East, as well as in the other border regions, created a specific form of financial cooperation. For the first four months of 2013 customs of the Far Eastern region transferred into the federal budget 51.78 billion rubles (approximately $1.65 bln) [7]. In order to buy goods in China local traders sometimes use semitransparent money transfers in large volumes. While the vast majority of operations involve big contracts between companies and are 100% legal, there are transactions between individuals that are used to off-set goods delivery that go unregulated. It is difficult to calculate the amount of such operations but data for national currency transfers provide an estimate.

In March 2013 as well as in past months, transfers of foreign cash currency by individuals from the Russian Federation exceeded transfers into the country. Balance of transfers of foreign cash currency without opening an account increased in March by 15% and totaled $600 million. Pure export of currency by individuals via the accounts totaled $403 million [8]. It is probable that further implementation of WTO procedures will lower Russian custom duties to levels which will make such practices useless.

Russian-APEC Cooperation in Non-banking Financial Activities: Cross-border Listings

and Stock Exchange Currency Operations

The Moscow Exchange on April 29, 2013 reported the day trading volume in the currency market near $31.46 billion USD or 982.05 billion rubles. This is the highest daily total in the currency market since 1992. The Russian financial market, although large and modern, still seems inferior when compared to developed markets of major national corporations. Giants of industry, planning stock offers, want to find a market with not only high liquidity but also comfortable regulations and a predictable business climate. One of the largest companies in Russia, "Rusal" through the United Company RUSAL Plc (incorporated in Jersey), made an IPO in Hong-Kong in 2010 and now shows market capitalization close to 59.6 billion HKD [9]. To invest in "Rusal" within Russia one must buy sponsored Russian Depositary Receipts brokered by "Sberbank". There were numerous discussions whether "HKEx" was the best market for the IPO, but obviously this stock exchange has a few advantages: strong legal system based on English common law, no capital flow restrictions, numerous tax advantages, currency convertibility and the free transferability of securities, plus the exchange accepts different reporting standards and its system allows local financial institutions to settle US dollar transactions in real time in the Asian time zone against the delivery of Hong Kong dollars.

Financial markets of all territories of China are seen as the major target for Russian corporations and financial institutions due to the huge potential of mutually beneficial cooperation in commodities and other goods and services. Experts expect that trade between these two countries will reach $100 bln US dollars which is why Chinese currency became the first Asian currency to be traded on Moscow Exchange.

This process was initiated by a trade agreement between the two governments in 1992. Ten years later the Bank of Russia and People Bank of China agreed to allow banks to open and service client accounts in Yuan and Rubles in border provinces. In April 2010 two state agreements about terms and conditions of trading national currencies via Stock Exchanges were finalized. And finally trading of currency contracts started on CFETS in November 2010 and on the Moscow Exchange on December 15, 2010. While this market is not very large, it is very promising. The average daily turn-over on the Moscow Exchange was 4.1 million Yuan in 2011 and rose to 6.8 mln. in 2012. According to the Stock Exchange, the number of participants is more than 80 and daily turn-over this year will be 11.6 mln. Yuan [10].

Operations of Chinese currency on the Moscow Exchange provide opportunities not only to support trade financing but also to invest in Hong Kong financial instruments and make arbitrage trades using divergences in dynamics of CNY and CNH. Contracts for USD/CNY re also popular financial products listed on many exchanges where the share of Chinese currency in international SWIFT transactions is less 1%. The Moscow Exchange undertakes efforts to make this currency more popular on the local market so the share of the MICEX-RTS among all CNY/RUB operations in Russia increased from 14% in 2011 to 21% in 2012. Major purchases are usually made by banks located in the Russian Far East for financing cross-border trade while Chinese banks mostly act as net sellers.

As Yuan trading appeared to be successful, the Moscow Exchange offered more comfortable terms beginning April 15, 2013. According to new rules one should deponent only 5% as a guarantee deposit instead of 100% of the amount of the trade as before. Commissions have declined by more than 3 times and are now the same as for USD and EUR contracts.

Traders no longer need a special account for Yuan operations accounted within their general position. As a result, first quarter 2013 CNY/RUB trades volume increased 40% compared to the same period of 2012. The next step will probably be an earlier start of the trading session to make participation in China and the Russian Far East more convenient and foster further increases in trade volume.

The twelfth meeting of the Russian-Chinese Subcommittee on cooperation in the financial sphere reached the decision that the National Bank of China will give privileges to the Russian banks trading Yuan on MICEX-RTS. The eligible banks receive privileges when carrying out interbank operations in the territory of China. Therefore Russian credit organizations participating in currency trading of Yuan/Ruble are allowed to operate in Chinese commercial banks to provide services in purchase and sale of Yuan through the special target account used for interbank operations in Yuan. Transfer of funds from this account to the account of the same Russian credit organization opened in the same Chinese bank is allowed for domestic banks also. These special Yuan accounts opened by the Russian credit organizations can receive only the Yuan purchased at the auction of MICEX-RTS. This measure will stimulate trading of Yuan/Ruble on MICEX-RTS and simplify access of Russian bidders to services of Yuan clearing in the territory of China.

Financial System of the RFE1 and Scenarios for the Future

The financial sector of the economy of the Russian Far East is represented mainly by the banking system. There is no local stock or commodities exchange in the region, and the few corporations listed on MICEX-RTS are not sufficiently interested in creating a regional over-the-counter (off-exchange) stock market. In early 2000's dozens of broker and dealer companies operated in the region in acquisition of equities from the general public who had received securities as a result of privatization. Such operations earn at least two digits percent in profits after resale on MICEX. Now, similar operations have almost disappeared, and dominant positions in the market of broker services and financial trust are occupied by branches of major Russian banks and financial groups. Occasionally banks open representative offices instead of branches that signify little real interest in the region and function only to collect savings in the Far East and funnel them to the capital for investment in securities and projects in Moscow.

The insurance market is dominated by branches of large Moscow-based companies. The DALACFES insurance company, one of a few regional insurance companies in the Far Eastern federal district, offers a wide range of insurance services in Primorsky Krai, Sakhalin and Kamchatka regions. Every year DALACFES faces more and more severe competition from branches of industry majors. The company's strategy for survival employes better knowledge of local activities and wide experience in insurance of sea and sea port associated risks.

However, the merger and acquisition boom among port operators and shipping companies makes former independent enterprises parts of vertically integrated companies thereby leaving some potential clients for regional insurance companies. That is why DALACFES is forced to increase retail sales focused on providing insurance protection for people and small business. Sales volume of the company in 2012 was 127.5 million rubles including: property risks 45% and entrepreneurial risks and the civil responsibility 7%. Having recovered after the crisis in 2009 - 2011, when many regional insurance companies left the market, DALACFES plans 10 -15% annual growth of its insurance portfolio in the next few years.[10]

In recent years there has been some activity in the market of micro-credit by non-bank credit facilities. However, these micro-financial organizations grant loans only to the individuals but have an extremely limited circle of clients because of their strategy of ultrahigh interest rates.

RFE - Russian Far East

Regional banks have found a market niche both in active and passive operations but trail behind most Far Eastern branches of large Russian banks in most business activity indicators (Table 4).

Table 4

Assets and Liabilities of Regional Banking System on April 1st 2013

(millions of Rubles)

Incorporated (registered) in the Russian Far East Operating in the RFE

Assets nominated in Ruble 484 908 1 125 598

Assets nominated in foreign currencies 40 461 85 432

Liabilities nominated in Ruble 486 885 1 128 197

Liabilities nominated in foreign currencies 38 484 82 833

Source of Data: Bank of Russia [12]

Assets of the banks incorporated in the Russian Far East totaled approximately 16.68 billion USD on April 1, 2013. Currency allocation of assets is 92.67% in national currency, for the liabilities the RUB share is 92.67%. Assets of all banks (with branches) operating in the region is more than 38.4 billion USD with slightly less foreign currency in assets and liabilities.

Table 5

Securities purchased by banks in RFE on April 1, 2013 (millions of Rubles)

Debt securities Bills

Total incl: Governmental securities Equities Equities of subsidiaries nominated in Ruble

Incorporated (registered) in the Russian Far East 40 009 4 665 1 742 42 6 371

Operating in the RFE 28 316 4 006 1 595 42 2 616

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Source of ? Data: Bank of Russia [12]

Regional banks are active in Russian securities markets but most trades are made in Moscow so that the total of debt securities bought by banks registered in the RFE is larger than those of banks operating in the region (Table 5). Sovereign debt obligations are often used by regional banks as risk free investments when their balance positions are not strong enough to afford higher risk financial instruments. At the same time small and medium banks cannot tolerate yield to maturity of 6 -7% which is normal for state bonds, so they use these securities in REPO deals to maximize profit. Commercial paper such as bills are very popular among local non-financial organizations. Historically, bills were used to settle crises of mutual debts, then to minimize VAT payments, but now they are used mostly for their primary purpose as short term debt obligations that can be sold to banks as necessary. Investment in equities are marginal and usually connected to large scale financial operations for clients rather than as part of bank portfolio investment.

Table 6

Loans outstanding position of banks in RFE on April 1st 2013 (millions of Rubles)

Loans to banks and

Loans to non- deposits into

financial financial Loans to

Total organizations organizations individuals

Incorporated (registered) in the Russian Far East.

Credits nominated in

Rubles 371 765 90 508 11 608 259 406

Operating in the RFE. Credits nominated in

Rubles 762 126 365 490 6 398 357 405

Incorporated (registered) in the Russian Far East.

Credits nominated in

foreign currencies 15 351 5 260 8 065 334

Operating in the RFE. Credits nominated in

foreign currencies 52 027 41 937 8 063 1 550

Source of Data: Ban k of Russia [1 2]

Regional banks compete poorly with branches of major Russian banks in providing credit lines to industrial companies and other non-financial organizations because of high cost of funding. At the same time, they are active in loans to individuals where the effective rate is much more convenient and price is not the major factor of competition. In this market they exploit their natural advantages such as flexible rate policy, well known brand name and many branches in districts where larger banks are not present (Table 6). Regional banks do not attempt to get bigger portfolios of credit in foreign currencies because they cannot get all advantages of carry trade because of smaller scales of operation (Table 7).

Table 7

Data on overdue debt on the balances of banks in RFE on April 1st 2013 (millions of __Rubles) __

Loans to non-financial Loans to financial Loans to

organizations organizations individuals

Ruble Foreign currency Ruble Foreign currency Ruble

Incorporated (registered) in the Russian Far East 3 061 23 6 3 6 253

Operating in the RFE 12 878 421 46 3 8 120

Source of Data: Bank of Russia [12]

Despite competition and the recent financial crisis, the banking system of the region is in very good condition. The share of bad debts among loans to non-financial organizations is only 3.4% for banks registered in the region and 3.5% for the banks operating in the RFE. Loans in foreign currency are usually more specific and granted only to first class borrowers due to additional currency risks so only 0.4% and 1% of these credits appeared to be overdue. The

general public of the region is not used to consumer loans so that overdue loans to individuals nominated in rubles are rare - only 2.4% of the portfolio.

Liberalization of access to national markets of financial services is one possible scenario of future integration of the financial market of the Far East in APEC. If foreign banks and insurance companies are allow to open full-function branches, Asian financial institutions will quickly become the wholesale supplier of financial resources and insurance protection because of their lower cost of capital.

But there will be no rapid decline in credit and insurance rates. In a free competition market, banks will try to provide an effective rate of their credit close to the market average, receiving higher margins as compensation for higher risks of doing business in Russia. Besides the scale effect, small population of the region as well as a limited pool of industrial enterprises, will continue their negative effects. The region does not consume enough financial services to make them cheap. However free competition will gradually reduce credit margins that will positively affect credit rates for the first-class borrowers.

A side effect will be a decrease in the average level of deposit rates for the population. Now regional banks are forced to offer deposits rates 10% - 15% higher (1-2% per year in absolute values) than large banks. Given that insurance of small deposits is performed by the state agency and the risk of loss of funds is minimized, the difference in rates can be explained by their limited access on the capital markets.

If regional banks are able to acquire credit resources from foreign banks with minimum transactional expenses, dependence on deposits by the population will be sharply reduced. Citizens will find it psychologically painful to invest savings at rates much below the level of consumer inflation, so it can be expected that a large portion of savings will be entrusted to Russian and foreign brokers for investment in securities.

Such investors in the security market will not make decisions in classical categories of risk and profitability partly because of insufficient financial literacy and knowledge and partly because of psychology. Instead, investors will create demand for shares of companies whose products are well known. It will create an opportunity to start non-sponsored programs of Russian Depositary Receipts invested in shares of Asian corporations such as Toyota or Samsung.

A more probable scenario assumes continuing national protectionism in the financial sector so special attention should be paid to internal reasons for growth of the regional economy. Enactment of the planned programs of tax privileges, in particular income tax exemption for newly created large-scale industrial projects, will create conditions for consolidation of new manufacturing projects. Such projects can be created as public corporations through IPO processes. In this case currency savings of the population of the Far East which are now mostly on deposits in the banks working in the region (37.4 billion rubles or more than 1 billion dollars [12]), can partially be transformed to investments.

Such investment will create a secondary over-the-counter market of regional shares which broker companies will be able to serve. Regional brokers and companies specializing in trust management of securities have a competitive advantage in comparison to branches of the large companies; they will be able to better estimate specifics of local projects and demonstrate more flexible approaches to cooperation with local issuers and investors.

Gradually conditions will develop for creating a regional exchange (or trading floor) in which futures contracts of energy resources exported to APEC, fishing products of the Far East, and also Russian Depositary Receipts of shares of Asian companies and securities of local entities can be traded. In any case, the bank system of the Far East will not suffer as it is stable and adequate to serve the market.

REFERENCES

1. Bank for International Settlements - http://stats.bis.org/

2. World Federation of Exchanges - http://www.world-exchanges.org/statistics

3. Strategy of development of VTB Group for 2010-2013. Presentation by Herbert Moos -the vice-chairman of Board, Ekaterina Petelina - the board member of VTB, May 27, 2010 Moscow http://www.vtb.ru/upload/iblock/a26/Presentation_of_VTB_Strategy_RU.pdf

4. Yury Solovyyov:»While there is a liquidity window, money needs to be borrowed" http://www.vtb.ru/group/press/news/interview/237505/

5. E.A. Orlov VTB Group In the Pacific Rim. Opportunities and prospects//Spatial economics No. 2, 2012 year

6. Vostochny express bank - https://www.express-bank.ru

7. Information Agency Deita - http://deita.ru/ 16 May 2013

8. Bank of Russia. The review of a condition of domestic market of cash foreign currency in March, 2013 Date of the last update: May 8, 2013 - www.cbr.ru

9. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited http://www.hkex.com.hk/eng/index.htm, Stock code 486

10. Igor Maric the Managing director RTS-MICEX on the money market Presentation "the Exchange Biddings Yuan/Ruble" on March 14, 2013, Moscow - www.rts.micex.ru

11. Dalacfes insurance company - http://www.dalacfes.ru/index.php?lang=en

12. Bank of Russia. Express release overview of banking sector of the Russian Federation: analytical indicators (Internet version) No. 127 of 2013 - www.cbr.ru

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