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EVALUATION OF UZBEKISTAN'S INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
POTENTIAL
Zilola Turgunovna Turaeva
Lecturer of the Department of Statistics and Econometrics, at the Tashkent Institute of
Finance
The article considers improvement of the methodology of statistical assessment of the industrial sector of the republic of Uzbekistan. Based on the results of the analysis, scientific recommendations and practical recommendations were developed to improve the use of production capacities in Uzbekistan.
Keywords: industry, industrial development, industrial potential, industrial trends, production potential, industrial sector, industrial strategy.
At the current stage of formation of the innovative economy in Uzbekistan, it is important to improve the mechanisms of industrial capacity building, including regular monitoring of the level of economic potential of regions and industries, adoption of modernization programs to develop industrial capacity and develop targeted strategies.
In the Address of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev to the Oliy Majlis of December 22, 2018, it is important to formulate a program of innovative renewal of the state, train a new generation of professionals who will effectively use innovation and investment, technological development and modernization of the domestic market. We need a strong national idea, a national program. This program should enable Uzbekistan to become one of the most developed countries in the world as soon as possible".
The implementation of these tasks is, first of all, our country increasing the volume of industrial production in the regions is on the agenda to define targeted strategies aimed at the effective use of the production potential of industrial enterprises.
While the development of the industrial sector is important for the economy of Uzbekistan, it accounts for 27.2% of the value added of the gross domestic product (GDP), 14% of total employment in the economy and 40% of fixed capital investment by economic activity. The positive impact of industrial production on the absolute growth rate of GDP in 2018 by the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan is 1.4 f.p. assessed at the level of.
Taking into account these features, one of the most pressing issues today is the in-depth analysis of trends in the development of industrial potential of the country, the
ABSTRACT
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development of targeted strategies to increase industrial capacity based on the identification of factors affecting its sustainable development.
There are several interpretations of the concept of "economic potential" in the scientific literature. As one of the main categories of the economy, economic potential represents the state of development and opportunities at different levels of management. In macroeconomics, economic potential is understood as the general capacity of a society in the process of market relations, such as meeting the demand for goods and services and the optimal use of available resources.
The concept of "potential" is derived from the Latin word "potentia", which means "opportunity, power, might". In a number of economic dictionaries, the concept of "potential" is defined as "a set of available means", "opportunities in any field", "available resources, means, resources".
In the regional economy, there are two approaches to defining the concept of "economic potential of the region": maximum availability (probability) of resources and maximum satisfaction of needs. The economic potential of the region is the state of the total volume of real and reserve resources that meet domestic and foreign needs to the maximum.
In general, the production potential of the region means the ability to ensure long-term sustainable development through the efficient and rational use of available resources, as well as the formation, identification and satisfaction of consumer demand for industrial products in the interaction with the external environment.
The development of a regional development strategy is the mobilization of resources for targeted activities, the formation of appropriate infrastructure and the development of necessary measures. The development of a long-term strategy for the region and the adoption of management decisions need to be based on science, taking into account the factors that have a positive impact on economic growth.
Scientists of our country have conducted a number of studies to assess the potential of industrial production, the implementation of industrial production potential was assessed by taking into account the characteristics of the industry on the basis of statistical analysis methods. The results of the study show that the production potential of industrial sectors is in these sectors based on the scale of internal and external demand for the products being created. The analysis of the production potential of the food industry in the Republic of Uzbekistan and its production by region on the basis of grouping, as well as proposals and recommendations to increase the capacity of food production were developed by Umarov I.Y.
Practice of assessment of the volume, share, growth dynamics of industrial production in the regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan on the basis of index methods
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to assess the production capacity of industry on the basis of interregional and national indicators of industrial output per capita in the regions entered by Salimov B.B.
The role of the Uzbek industrial sector in the national economy, its sustainable development, innovative activities and efficiency of management of the sector in D. G. Mamadjanov's research, the potential of the regions for agricultural production was assessed by Tashmatov R. on the basis of statistical analysis.
Kurbanov J.Q. focused on the current state and current problems of modernization of industry in Uzbekistan and the technical and technological basis for the growth of industrial and labor productivity and increasing the competitiveness of the entire national economy. tried to determine through their research. The increase in industrial capacity is based on the fact that it depends on changes in factors such as energy capacity, SO2 emissions, foreign investment. Insufficient research has been conducted by scientists of our country on the use of economic-mathematical models in assessing the production potential of industry. By assessing industrial production potential based on multi-factor correlation and regression analysis methods, it is possible to show the most important factors that determine the level of industrial production efficiency and impact on the result.
Assessment of industrial development trends in a number of areas was carried out in S. O. Khomidov's research. His research distinguishes 6 stages of the system of indicators (global level, world), macro level (country), regional level (region), meso level (network), micro level (enterprise) and nano level (product), which comprehensively represent the development trends of the industry. The specific features, processes and quantitative methods of studying the development of the industrial sector are systematized.
A number of scientific studies have been conducted by foreign scientists on the use of correlation and regression analysis methods in the assessment of industrial production potential. In particular, Tarasov P. S. assessed the effect of comparable and real output on the supply of resources and the factors that shape them on the increase in production capacity on the basis of regression analysis methods.
Based on the above, there is no clear methodological approach and standard models for a comprehensive assessment of industrial production capacity. In these circumstances, it is important to assess the potential of industrial production in the Republic of Uzbekistan and its regions and to determine targeted strategies based on its results.
In assessing the production capacity of the industry, it is advisable to first develop a method of valuation. The task is to classify the factors that constitute and affect the industrial production capacity. In the implementation of the classifications, in our
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opinion, it is advisable to accept industrial products produced in the country, region or industry, or enterprise, of an involuntary variable quality.
The following figure shows the stages of assessing the production capacity of the industry (Figure 1).
The calculation of the production capacity of the industry is carried out at the macro level (country). It uses data on the development of industry of the Republic for 2005-2017. It is advisable to use SPSS Statistical and exell programs to calculate the results of correlation and regression analysis. The smallest squares method of regression analysis also uses index estimation methods to estimate industrial potential.
The Republic of Uzbekistan was selected as a dependent variable in the assessment of industrial production capacity, defined as the volume of industrial production (Y; billion billion) and as independent variables - the average number of employees in industry (X1; thousand people), investment in industry (X2; billion billion), changes in average wages (X3; thousand soums) for 2008-2020 State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan based on the data in Table 1.
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INITIAL STAGE:
IDENTIFICATION OF EFFECTIVE FEATURE, CLASSIFICATION
OF FACTORS
FORMING A DATABASE
Selection of the method of assessment and determination of
the main directions
Introduction of the regression analysis function
Introduction of production potential indicators
Calculation of indicators of effective use of production capacity
Figure 1. Stages of calculating the production capacity of the industry1
TABLE 1
Specifications selected for the model2
YEARS Y X1 X2 *X3
2008 11028,6 616,7 1032,4 92,8
2009 14640,3 614,7 1384,6 128,5
2010 18447,6 618,3 2223,2 184,4
2011 2384,0 600,4 3293,8 199,9
2012 28387,3 579,0 3556,9 397,5
2013 38119,0 611,6 4659,9 537,9
1 http://iqtisodiyot.tsue.uz
2 O'zbekiston respublikasi davlat statistika qo'mitasi ma'lumotlari asosida tuzilgan
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2014 47587,1 644,2 6070,3 680,7
2015 57552,5 670,5 7794 862,7
2016 70634,8 680,3 9813,4 1088,8
2017 84011,6 682,4 13164,5 1280,4
2018 97598,2 685,1 15047,3 1549,4
2019 111869,4 702,8 16165,5 1863,8
2020 144185,3 1825,2 26630,9 2091,7
The comparison of2008-2020 was based on the minimum wage in 2019-20203.
Using the data regression equation given in Table 1, using Excel, we construct the equation of the linear function using the least squares method. The essence of the least squares method is to minimize the quadratic constraints of the difference between the calculated and observed quantities. The calculated quantities are found by the selected regression equation. The smaller the difference between the actual values and the calculated values, the more accurate the function constructed based on the regression equation.
The results of the calculation of the relative index of industrial capacity utilization in the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2008-2020 show that during 2008-2010 it adopted values smaller than one. It can be concluded that in 2011 the production capacity was used effectively. During 2013-2016, the selected factors were effectively used, with the index of utilization of industrial production capacity suddenly accepting high values. In 2017-2019, there was a further downward trend, and in 2020, the situation remained balanced. This situation highlights the need to further increase the efficiency of work carried out in the country to effectively use the production potential of industry.
In our opinion, the method of calculating the index of production capacity allows not only to make a comparative analysis of the level of use of industrial production capacity in the country, but also to assess the state of the regions. It is also advisable to use this method in the process of developing the most important strategies for sustainable development of the industry and increasing the industrial potential.
It is expedient to use the above-mentioned methodological approaches in determining the strategy of balanced development and efficient placement of industry in the regions, increasing the production capacity of the industry. This means that the effective use of industrial production potential in the Republic of Uzbekistan should be carried out taking into account the existing opportunities and factors influencing the growth of production capacity. Accordingly, the use of the proposed model in defining targeted projects and strategies for industrial development in the Republic will increase
3 O'zbekistonda 2021 yilning yanvar-dekabr oylarida bandlik va mehnat bozori.
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the chances of achieving balanced industrial development in the regions, the targeted use of productive forces based on the specifics of the regions.
REFERENCES
1. Makhmudov M.F. O'zbekistonning sanoat ishlab chiqarish salohiyatini baholash. http://iqtisodiyot.tsue.uz
2. Tarasov P. S. Evaluation of the production potential of the. Regionalnaya ekonomika: teoriya i praktika - Regional Economics: Theory and Practice, 2019, №. 35 (128), pp. 8-15. (In Russian).
3. Shanazarova G.B. Sanoat korxonalarining innovatsion salohiyatini baholashning ayrim nazariy masalalari. // "Iqtisodiyot va innovatsion texnologiyalar" ilmiy elektron jurnali. http://www.iqtisodiyot.uz.
4. Yabjanova T. G. Otsenka proizvodstvennogo potentsiala Respubliki Buryatiya // Regional'naya i otraslevaya ekonomika. 2021. http://eizvestia.isea.ru.
5. Rasulov G'.S. Sanoat tarmog'ini rivojlantirishning o'ziga xos xususiyatlari. // "XXI asr: fan va ta'lim masalalari" ilmiy elektron jurnali. №3, 2020 yil.
