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РАЗДЕЛ 1 МОДЕЛИ, СИСТЕМЫ, СЕТИ В ЭКОНОМИКЕ И УПРАВЛЕНИИ
УДК 336.3
EUROPEAN FINANCIAL STABILITY MECHANISM: IMPACT ON EUROZONE ECONOMY
П. А. Аючатова, А. В. Бояркин, Н. В. Володина
Рассмотрен новый европейский механизм финансовой стабильности, принципы его функционирования, а также перспективы и проблемы, которые необходимо решить в ближайшее время. Особое внимание уделяется его воздействию на экономики стран Европейского союза: Италию, Грецию, Испанию.
As the title implies the article speaks about the new European Stability Mechanism, principles of its functioning, prospects and problems which are necessary for solving soon. Great importance is also attached to its impact on economy of the countries of the European Union: Italy, Greece, Spain.
The European debt crisis, at the heart of which the essential gain of cumulative debt of the countries of Eurozone in 2009-2012 lies, painfully struck not only on the region, but also on all world economy.
The budget deficit in all EU countries began to exceed 3 % from volume of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) provided by the Treaty Lisbon. According to the same contract, the volume of a government debt of any country can't exceed 60 % of GDP, and now for 16 EU's countries this duty makes about 80 % from their GDP (picture 1) [1].
Picture 1. Dynamic of increase total debt to GDP of the Eurozone in 2002-2012, %
The policy of «rigid consolidation», directed on reduction of deficiency of the state budgets of the participating countries of community was as a result proclaimed. However reduction of the public expenditures led to delay of economic growth, increase in unemployment, and decline in production that made Eurozone
of less solvent. The result is decrease in demand for debts of the states entering into its structure. It caused growth of profitability became result and, respectively, increased volume of payments on loans.
In this regard the summit of the European Union countries made unprecedented decision in the world's history economy. It is composed of confirmation EU's participating countries operating conditions of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). It will begin the solution of the main region's problem which in fact connected with inability of service of government debts in the conditions of growing interest rates on bonds and bills.
Predecessors of ESM which call programs of temporary financing of EFSF, EFSM couldn't to provide necessary support to the debt market of Eurozone. In spite of essential volume of resources and expanded credit possibilities in the form of partially protected certificates and joint investment funds, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) didn't possess the status of bank institute. The mechanism of its functioning consisted in placement of bonds, means from which sale come to the aid of the problem countries of community. ESM has bank powers and has possibility to make essential impact on the interest rates, developing in the primary market. They define what sum is necessary to pay the debts to the countries issuers. Properly, Eurozone receives its own regional fund which purpose of activity is stabilization of the debt market. Low interest rates will allow reducing gradually debt burden at the expense of old debt's refinancing. As a result of it the participating countries can gradually increase volume of the government expenditures. Their economy will start to be restored.
The total amount of the mechanism includes 700 billion euro. Thus its credit capacity will be up to standard of 500 billion euro, and the remained means is a reserve on a case of non-payments of borrowers. Only 80 billion euro countries of Eurozone will bring in European Financial Stabilization Mechanism (EFSF) «cash», 620 billion euro is the capital on demand.
The responsibility for management of ESM will be assumed by Ministers of Finance of member countries of Eurozone, Commisioner on economic and monetary policy the President of the European National Bank. Duties of ministers will include making decisions on rendering of financial support and its conditions. Besides, they will be responsible for management of liquidity of ESM.
Maturity dates of given-out ESM's loans will depend by essence financial problems in the state borrower and estimates of prospects of renewal of its access to the capital markets. Sometimes ESM at coordination with Ministers of Finance of the countries of Eurozone can carry out interventions in primary markets of the debt capital on the basis of programs of macroeconomic regulation. Such intervention will be carried out by means of purchase of bonds of the state-borrower in primary market of the capital.
Credit potential to new fund in 700 billion euro should suffice for rendering of the necessary help to the debt market despite the considerable size of a government debt of the participating countries of Eurozone. For example, all budget of Germany this year will consists of 312,5 billion euro. At the beginning ESM resources is quite enough for refinancing of debts of the problem countries of the region. If they don't suffice, the European Central Bank (ECB) ready to come to the aid at any time (picture 2) [2].
Picture 2. Structure of authorized capital of ESM, %
Recently in economic reports there was the set phrase of PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) that created from the first letters of names of the countries, which have financial problems. Greece became the leader of this five. Its duty made 132,3 % from GDP, Italy - 123,3 % GDP (picture 3). Unsuccessful attempts of Spain to leave this vicious circle this week rouse Standard&Poor's agency to lower a kingdom rating. The company reduced an assessment of solvency of Spain at once by two levels to «BBB» [1]. Thus, the rating of the country is in one step from level when it call high-speculative or simply garbage. The agency alerts recession strengthening in the country and social protests which limit desires of the authorities to meet financial crisis. And the last factor at all can lead Spain to proceed according to the same sad scenario as well as in Greece. It follows from opinion of Vladimir Bragin, the director of analytical department «Alfa-Capital» [3].
Picture 3. Size of a government debt of the countries of Eurozone, billion euro
EFSF which now finances Ireland, Greece and Portugal (total amount of its obligations is 192 billion euro), from the middle of 2013 will cease to take part in new programs on support of the states of Eurozone, but it will continue to serve these three countries. The help to banks of Spain which while will be allocated from EFSF will pass to ESM as soon as that will begin work. About 250 billion euro, which used not yet means of EFSF, will join total amount of credit capacity of ESM.
The example of the above-stated countries shows that in spite of the fact that the mechanisms of financial support existing in EU work. But it is not enough of one for a complete recovery of economy of victim's debt crisis of the states. The states debtors should undertake often unpopular measures in domestic policy for complete realization of the purposes of such institutes as ESM. For example, increase of tax burden and reduction of an account part of budgets.
List of reference links
1. Magazine ForTrader.ru. - URL: http://fortrader.ru/
2. European Union. - URL: http://europa.eu/index_en.htm
3. Radio Voice of Russia. - URL: http://rus.ruvr.ru/2012_10_13
УДК 338
THE FACTORS, WHICH INFLUENCE DEMONSTRATION OF SHADOW ECONOMY, AND METHODS OF STRUGGLE WITH IT
П. А. Аючатова, А. В. Бояркин, Н. В. Володина
На сегодняшний день одна из главных проблем, от решения которой зависит функционирование национальных систем, - это теневая экономика. Рассмотрены причины ее возникновения, сферы влияния и методы предотвращения отрицательных воздействий. Анализируется влияние на экономические, политические и социальные отношения.
The article draws out attention to one of the main problems, which decision functioning of national systems depends, is a shadow economy. It is dealt with the reasons of its emergence, a sphere of influence and methods ofprevention of negative impacts. Influence on the economic, political and social relations is analyzed.
Nowadays a shadow economy became one of the main problems of world's development. Functioning of national systems depends on its solution. However the history of shadow economy is an integral part of the commodity-money relations and it is inherent in each state. Surges of its activity fall on turning points in life of economy and all humanity. Using this term, we understand such economic situation which the firms avoiding payment of taxes, registration or expenses concerning working conditions and protection of the rights of consumers, hide the activity and the income [1].
Shadow economy often calls the «second» economy which is representing itself as derivative structure. The main function of it consists in the help to official economic system, during emergence of failures or frustration. Shadow activity in a certain measure promotes growth of economy, let it even doesn't prove to be true statistically.
