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Экологические риски реализации транспортных инфраструктурных проектов Китая в странах Центральной Азии: реализация инициативы «Один пояс, один путь»
Бай Инь,
аспирант, Санкт-Петербургский государственный университет E-mail: [email protected]
Транспортная инфраструктура, как средство межрегионального взаимодействия, является приоритетным направлением развития в контексте китайской инициативы «Один пояс, один путь». Центральная Азия является ключевым объектом инвестиций для Китая в рамках данного проекта, который действительно связывает азиатскую и европейскую экономические сферы, а также способствует развитию торговли вдоль границ Китая и в западном регионе. Поскольку Центральная Азия отстает в экономическом развитии, ее транспортная инфраструктура слаба, а Китай в последние годы имеет избыточные мощности, поэтому развитие транспортных объектов может помочь оптимально использовать мощности и реализовать их грамотное распределение. В данной статье проведена оценка текущего уровнем развития транспортной инфраструктуры в пяти странах Центральной Азии и выявлены риски инвестиционной среды для поиска оптимального пути сотрудничества в области транспортной инфраструктуры между Китаем и Центральной Азией.
Ключевые слова: Транспортная инфраструктура, инициатива «Один пояс, один путь», Центральная Азия, Китай, риск.
Central Asia is located at the heart of Asia and Europe, in the geopolitical "heartland". Since the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2001, China and Central Asia have experienced rapid economic and trade development. After Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt in Kazakhstan in 2013, the cooperation between China and Central Asia has further deepened. The New Asia-Europe Continental Bridge Economic Corridor and the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor run through the Central Asian region, making it an important area for promoting the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative. The term "Central Asia" includes five geographically and culturally close countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan). Central Asia has rich deposits of uranium, non-ferrous and rare metals. They are found in the mountainous parts of southern Kyrgyzstan, in the west of Uzbekistan and in northern Tajikistan. Kazakhstan is the number one oil producer in Central Asia and Turkmenistan ranks fourth in the world in terms of proven gas reserves [1].
However, Central Asian countries are deeply landlocked and their unique geographical location determines their dependence on land transport, and their rich oil and gas resources need to be transported by various transport facilities. Railway and road infrastructure is an important support for their foreign trade, but Central Asian countries have long lagged behind in the development of transport infrastructure, which hinders the development of trade between China and Central Asia.
Current status of transport infrastructure in Central Asia
According to the data published in the 2021 edition of China's "One Belt, One Road" Foreign Investment Country (Region) Guide [2], Kazakhstan, as the world's largest landlocked country, has a road-based transport system, with a total road mileage of 95,800 km, second only to Russia and the second largest in the CIS region. There are 21 large airports in Kazakhstan, 12 of which provide international air transport services, and water transport by air is mainly by inland waterways. The topography of Tajikistan is complex, with 93% of the country being mountainous, making it difficult to build roads, and transportation is mainly by road. The
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total length of roads in Tajikistan is 13,700 km, the total length of railways is 950.7 km, of which only 616.7 km are in use, 114 km are in overdue service, there is no sea transport, and the airport cargo volume is basically 0. The total length of roads in Kyrgyzstan is about 34,000 km, which accounts for more than 90% of the country's total freight and 99% of the total passenger traffic, while the development of other transport modes is slow. The volume of air and water freight transport is very low. The total length of roads in Turkmenistan is approximately 14,000 km, of which about two thirds have been newly built in the last decade or so, and there are no highways for the time being. The railway network is irregular and most of the lines are badly deteriorated. Although landlocked, it is bordered by the Caspian Sea and the Turkmenistan Caspian Sea port is an important trade hub. Uzbekistan has 184,000 km of roads and no motorways at present. Railways are 6,950 km long, including 1,830.3 km of electrified railways, but there are no sea ports and no inland waterways.
According to the World Bank's Logistics Performance Index 2018 (representing the quality of trade and transport-related infrastructure, 1 = very low, 5 = very high) data [3]. Kazakhstan scored 2.81 and ranked 71. Uzbekistan scored 2.58 and ranked 99; Kyrgyzstan scored 2.55 and ranked 108; Tajikistan scored 2.34 and ranked 134; and Turkmenistan scored 2.41, ranking 126. Kazakhstan has the highest logistics performance index compared to the other four countries, but globally the quality of transport infrastructure in the five Central Asian countries as a whole is in the lower to medium range.
The investment environment for transport infrastructure in Central Asia is analyzed in terms of these types of risks:
- Cultural risks
- Political risks
- Great Power Game
- Financing risks.
Cultural risks
Central Asia is a predominantly Islamic region, but because of the influence of the former Soviet Union, there are also currently a large number of ethnic groups of the Russian and other Orthodox faiths. Due to the intertwined ferment of historical and cultural, political situation and socio-economic factors within and outside the region, Islamic extremism in Central Asia has emerged. Islamic extremist groups disrupt normal social order, interfere with people's production and livelihood, obstruct government administration and intensify social conflicts [4].
With cultural and religious differences and international prejudice against China, and often with rhetoric such as the Chinese economic threat theory and Chinese economic infiltration, Central Asian countries are actively participating in "One Belt, One Road" while remaining wary of China. This has undoubtedly increased the distrust of Central Asian people towards Chinese investors, the extreme manifestation of which is Sinophobia [5].
Chinese companies are vulnerable to obstruction by local residents in the process of contracting projects in Central Asia, which is detrimental to the progress and effectiveness of the projects.
Political risks
The relatively low level of political transparency in the country has often led to political conflict. The emergence of political conflict is often directly linked to separatism, extremism and terrorism [6]. Central Asian countries have experienced social unrest on several occasions. For example, in 1992, a war between two tribes from the north and south broke out in Tajikistan; in 2005, the "Andijan riots" in Uzbekistan led to protests demanding the ouster of the government; in 2005 and 2010, the "Tulip Revolution" and street riots in Kyrgyzstan, which demanded the ouster of the government and democratic reforms, led directly to the ouster of the government. In 2011, riots led by the political opposition broke out in Kazakhstan to protest against the president's prolonged rule. When the president came to power in March 2019 and proposed changing the name of the capital, a campaign against the change erupted in the capital with over 32,000 signatures and led to brawls and demonstrations. In the 2022 global ranking of 180 countries on the Corruption Perceptions Index published by Transparency International, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are ranked 101, 126, 140, 150 and 167 respectively [7]. The prevalence of government corruption has undermined the investment climate in Central Asian countries, leading to more complex government approval processes and inadvertently increasing the cost of building transport infrastructure.
Great Power Game
Since the independence of the five Central Asian countries, Russia, the United States, China and Japan have played a constant game in the Central Asian powers.
In the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia's main efforts have been tied up by the situation in Ukraine, but Russia has been the highest priority for the diplomacy of the Central Asian countries, its history of being united under the Soviet Union and the continuation of Russia's pre-existing links with Central Asia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and China's desire to invest in transport facilities in Central Asia must take into account Russia's inherent advantages and early links with the Central Asian region. In March 2005, the American academician F. Starr proposed a regional economic cooperation program called the "Greater Central Asia Initiative". The US has also advocated the establishment of a US-Central Asia Trade and Investment Framework Agreement, or TIFA, to better integrate Central Asia into the world economic and trade system through TIFA cooperation. In 2011, US Secretary of State Hillary proposed a New Silk Road strategy to support regional trade between South and Central Asia, and in 2015, the C5+1 mechanism was proposed. Thus, the US strategy in Central Asia has both imme-
diate and long-term objectives. US power in Central Asia is here to stay. The US has taken a major step in stabilizing its involvement in Central Asia by moving into the region's hydrocarbon resources, including the Central Asia-South Asia Transmission Project (CA-SA-1000) and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline Project (TAPI).
Among these countries, China should be concerned about Japan's infrastructure investment in Central Asia, where both China and Japan are Asian countries and are one of China's biggest competitors in the race for Central Asian markets. In response to China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative, in May 2015, the then Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, proposed that Japan would build a "high-quality infrastructure partnership" to promote "high-quality infrastructure" assistance in Asia and to assist the Central Asian region [8]. This followed the establishment of the Central Asia +Japan dialogue in 2004.At the 6th Central Asia +Japan Foreign Ministers' Meeting in May 2017, the "Transport and Logistics Cooperation Plan" was adopted and proposed to provide 24 billion yen in transport and logistics construction assistance to the five Central Asian countries, as part of which Japan will also dispatch consultants and experts in the land, railway and aviation transport sectors to provide operational training and human resource development tailored to the needs of each country. In May 2019, Taro Kono, then Foreign Minister of Japan, stated in no uncertain terms at the 7th Central Asia +Japan Foreign Ministers' Dialogue that Japan's efforts to promote the purpose of "high-quality infrastructure" aid is to demonstrate the difference with China's "One Belt, One Road" and to compete with China's infrastructure aid. Japan argues that "high-quality infrastructure" assistance focuses more on providing Central Asian countries with expertise and knowledge of modern infrastructure, and emphasizes empowering Central Asian countries to address regional and global issues and promote regional and inter-state cooperation in the course of project implementation, with a particular focus on "universal values" such as democratic governance, procedural transparency and human rights" [9]. This is a clear difference from China's transport infrastructure assistance. Japan is giving full play to the "soft" influence of aid to enhance the trust of Central Asian countries and to cultivate goodwill towards Japan, thereby increasing its political influence on Central Asian countries and doing its best to balance China's growing influence in the region.
Financing risks
The five Central Asian countries are all developing countries and are financially vulnerable, and their currencies continue to depreciate due to the political situation. Investment in transport infrastructure is long term and large in amount and is subject to exchange rate fluctuations. China and Kazakhstan renewed their bilateral local currency swap agreement in 2014 with a size of RMB 7 billion, and in 2015, China signed a three-year bilateral local currency swap agreement with Tajikistan with a size of RMB 3 billion. In the other three
countries, Chinese enterprises are not allowed to use RMB for cross-border trade and investment services. In foreign exchange management all five Central Asian countries provide for free remittance of legal income, with Uzbekistan charging a 2% fee and Tajikistan imposing a mandatory 8% tax on corporate profits; in addition, in terms of host country financing, foreign companies do not consider local financing due to the backward development of the financial sector in most Central Asian countries, despite the fact that Central Asian countries provide for equal treatment of foreign and local companies. Most of China's investments in transport infrastructure in Central Asia are of an aid nature. In the contracting of transport infrastructure projects in Central Asia, the main parties of the projects are mainly large state-owned enterprises, and the financing is mainly preferential loans provided by Chinese policy banks or joint loans with international financial organizations. As can be seen from the regulations on FDI methods in the five Central Asian countries, the BOT method is a new type of investment in Kazakhstan, and the government of Tajikistan has always attached importance to the PPP method in the field of infrastructure construction, with no relevant regulations in other countries. Although BOT and PPP methods are common financing methods in the field of transport infrastructure, most of the Central Asian countries do not have relevant legal regulations.
Conclusion
In view of the above risks, considering that the weakest link in the transportation infrastructure in Central Asia is that the transportation infrastructure has not formed a network of sufficient scale. China's transportation infrastructure construction in Central Asia can start from the following points:
1. Focus on the investment policies of the governments of the five Central Asian countries, with the governments taking the lead in rational investment and development within the limits of the policies allowed.
2. Prevent political and security risks that exist in the Central Asian countries. China should improve services such as overseas investment insurance and commercial guarantees provided by banks, policy insurance institutions and risk management agencies to provide protection for Chinese companies investing in Central Asia.
3. Focus on education and culture in Central Asia, reduce cultural and psychological distance, and increase assistance to the livelihood sector.
4. To balance China's economic and political interests with those of the five Central Asian countries by engaging with them in a respectful manner and taking practical action to dispel the so-called "China threat theory".
5. Expanding financing channels in various aspects. With the help of ADB, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and other financial organizations, we are innovating financing channels and gradually introducing BOT, BOOT, PPP and other financing methods according to the policies of the Central Asian region.
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6. Cultivation to enhance the autonomy of Central Asian countries. Japan's decades-long history of foreign aid shows that the main feature and principle has always been to insist on the autonomy of the recipient countries, the core of which lies in the cultivation of human resources.
Литература
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ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ANALYSIS OF CHINA'S INVESTMENT IN TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IN CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES IN THE CONTEXT OF "ONE BELT, ONE ROAD'' INITIATIVE
Bai Yin
St. Petersburg State University
Transport infrastructure, as a vehicle for inter-regional connectivity, is a priority area of development for countries along the route in the context of China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative. Central Asia is a key investment target for China under "One Belt, One Road" initiative, which links the Asian and European economic spheres and promotes trade development along China's borders and in the western region. As the five Central Asian countries are lagging behind in economic development, their transport infrastructure is weak, and China has had excess capacity in recent years, the development of transport facilities will help to transfer capacity and optimize its allocation. This article analyses the current situation of the level of development of transport infrastructure in five Central Asian countries and the risks of the investment environment to seek the optimal path of transport infrastructure cooperation between China and Central Asia.
Keywords: Transport Infrastructure, "One Belt, One Road" initiative, Central Asia, China, Risk.
References
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