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ENERGY SOURCES: MAIN AXIS OF RIVALRY AND COOPERATION IN CENTRAL ASIA, CASPIAN AND CAUCASUS
M. SANAIE
Institute for North American and European Studies University of Tehran 16AzarSt., Enghelab Ave., Tehran, Iran
Oil and gas sources of Central Asia and Caspian area have attracted the attention of world great powers and also regional ones. Following that, energy transmission lines of the region have been propounded as the main axis of rivalry and cooperation among regional powers and Central Asian and Caucasus Republics. Being the central part of Eurasia this region is doubtlessly regarded as the most important energy source of the world and one of the main highways of transit and economy. Great powers game over the energy sources of Central Asia and Caspian has engaged regional states, such as Iran, Turkey, India and Pakistan.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the region of Central Asia, Caspian and Caucasus found a particular prominence in the geographical map of the world. This prominence was mainly caused by the existence of huge oil and gas sources in the region which had attracted the attention of great powers rather than re-emerging of a part of world geography after almost a century under the influence of the Soviet Union complex.
Consequently, along with rapid inauguration of foreign embassies in the capitals of the new independent republics and establishing political relations with other countries, great oil companies started extensive activities in the region. The conclusion of big contracts in the field of oil and gas exploitation of the region and huge investments on this field and then serious negotiations and rivalries over the determination of transmission energy from this region, all indicated a great game with different dimensions over the energy sources of Central Asia and Caspian attending regional and global actors. The competition over the energy sources of the region and the circumstances of its transmission to the outside world intensified so that the region's analysts paid attention to the survey of real causes of extensive political attempts and huge economic investments in the region.
It seems that great powers' rivalry for exercising control over Caspian and Central Asian sources is more analyzable within the framework of geopolitical outlook to the world issues, meanwhile considering the aim of providing their need for energy. In the classical geopolitical analysis, the dominance over natural resources and energy and power areas is regarded as dominance over the world.
The competition of great powers for dominating over the oil and gas sources of Central Asia and Caspian, while attempting provide economic interests, is analyzable in the framework of attempting in strategic spheres. In the late 19th century and early 20th century, geopolitical method was regarded as the main method for analyzing international relations' issues. Although during the Cold War period, geopolitical method was under effect of ideological war between Marxism and Eastern socialism with capitalism and Western liberalism, and today also sometimes values and justifications such as freedom and democracy are ways for dominance over different regions of the world, but analyzing a set of great powers' function and competition over energy sources are reminding us of the geopolitical method.
Sir Halford Mackinder, the British scholar, regarded Eurasia as the most important part and heartland of the world. In the classical geopolitical thought, world politics was based on this matter that who is dominant over Eurasia.
For entering the discussion, we should pay attention to the following preliminaries:
1. It seems that oil and gas will still remain main sources of providing world energy for a long time. Nowadays oil provides almost 40% of world energy equation. It is estimated that the Caspian area oil sources be 15 to 30 billion tons and gas sources near 3000 billion tons.
2. Nowadays, oil and gas sources are the only ground for these new independent countries to enter the world economic process. For Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and even Uzbekistan the oil and gas factor is regarded as a strong factor in order to expand and provide their economic development. These countries now exploit their energy sources for accessing complete independence, expanding their cooperation with the West and creating balance in their relations with Russia.
3. The central and southern part of Eurasia is included as one of the main highways of connecting lines, transit and economy in the world. This region connects southern hemisphere to the northern one and also the east to the west through sea and land. As the region is located between Europe and Asia, the West and Islamic world, open seas from two sides and neighboring with great political and economic powers, - all this means a specific significance.
4. Now and after ten years since the independence of Central Asian and Caucasus republics, the main discussion lays over the circumstances of transmitting oil and gas and its related pipelines, rather than energy sources themselves. Great powers design the plan of their intended pipelines in the framework of their economic, political and security strategies, not on the basis of regional geographical facts. While the paths of Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, China, Turkey and Russian traditional pipelines are raised for transmitting energy, this issue is immensely affected by the US policy in the region and its impact on the regional leaders' decision-making.
5. The US-Iraq war and the American dominance over oil sources of Persian Gulf, following the war in Afghanistan, meanwhile has attached the political and security matters of both regions, has also turned the energy sources of central and southern part of Eurasia into a package.
Considering these preliminaries, one can claim that the actors' function present at the Central Asia, Caspian and Caucasus region demonstrates that the energy sources will be the main axis of rivalry and cooperation of great powers in the region in future too, and geopolitical method is still regarded as the main method for analyzing international and regional events. The control of energy sources has even been the basis of Truman, Eisenhower, and Carter, the American presidents' doctrines in the Cold War period. Wolfowitz' doctrine which was formed in the American defense ministry in the early 1990s and was ignored by Clinton, the then president, now forms the basis of the US foreign policy and pays a particular attention to the dominance over strategic and energetic regions of the world in its forestalling policy.
EU countries also follow a specific viewpoint regarding oil and gas sources of the region by concluding contracts for cooperation and NATO's expansion to the East. In addition to economic companies, NATO has also entered in the energy and environmental issues of the region. Meanwhile it is anticipated that Europe will be the most significant energy consumer for the oil and gas sources of the region. China will severely be dependent on the energy sources of the region during next two decades. Russia which has suffered from fragmentation of the republics near to the Russian Federation, now Putin
administration has propounded the energy exploitation and transmission of these republics as center of gravity for reinforcing previous relations with them. The conclusion of longterm contracts in the field of oil and gas production and transmission with Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan is in the same direction.
Great powers' game over the energy sources of Central Asia and Caspian region has also engaged regional countries such as Iran, Turkey, India and Pakistan in the field. During recent years and after US war against Afghanistan and Iraq, rivalries over energy sources of Central Asia and Caspian region have been more obvious. And it clearly propounds a geopolitical struggle that sometimes manifests in the form of hostility and competition and sometimes in the framework of cooperation. In this period, especially after occupying Iraq, the balance of power was changed among great powers and regional actors. Russia and China encountered new circumstances which were opposite to their interests. At the same time they supported the US in combating against terrorism. While the US was severely interested in establishing oil transmission pipelines out of Russian territory, Russia, instead of confronting the US, has simultaneously started vast real economic cooperation with the Central Asia and Caspian region republics and also a complicated game with the US on the basis of compromise and granting privileges.
It seems that by coming to an end of ideological struggle between the two poles as the result of the collapse of the Soviet Union, and by finishing the last decade of the 20th century which was still under the effect of former policies, and in spite of vast cooperation between the two sides and determining common objectives like struggle against terrorism, we can observe more obvious consequences of the current geopolitical rivalry in the region. The American strategy regarding dominating over energy sources and exercising control on the path of energy transmission pipelines makes it necessary for this state to have more military and political presence in the Caspian region and neighboring countries. The events of recent years demonstrate that the package of energy sources of Southern and Central Eurasia is determinant in the coming rivalries and cooperation.
All the following points indicate the very above-mentioned argument: more support for Turkey; invasion on Iraq; intensifying propaganda against Iran and propounding its nuclear case; and declaring Central Asia as the region of the US crucial interests and affirming it in the American national security strategy in September 2002. It is quite obvious that the American actions in the southern borders of Eurasia have affected the balance of interests and its order in Central Asia and Caucasus and also neighboring countries in the region. Some writers claim that the very former confrontation of the Cold War continues. But the difference lies in the fact that in the past both superpowers were participating in the formation of it, but now it is more affected by the American policies; and new regional actors have also involved in it. This lack of balance is because of the lack of equality between economic power of Russia and other regional countries with that of the US. The huge capacities of this superior economic power for cooperating and granting privileges and its dependence on energy sources is the main motivation for the tendency of new republics of Central Asia and Caucasus to the US.
We should consider that the American involvement in the issues related to energy sources of this region backs to the early 20th century. In this period the US started extensive cooperation with the then Iranian government in order to access the oil sources of the northern countries. This policy was more activated afterwards because of this country's dependence on oil. At the same time, we should not ignore the fact that the American policy has always and simultaneously followed idealist and pragmatist principles. The US nowadays while not concealing her interest in the energy sources of
Central Asia, Caspian and Caucasus region, declares the expansion of democracy in the new independent republics, prevention from expansion of mass destruction weapons through illegal trade of weapons, supporting political and economic stability and prevention from ethnic conflicts as the reasons for her presence in the region. We should confess that the US follows various objectives in the region simultaneously and can not keep distance from the events that happen in Caucasus because of geopolitical reasons. Caucasus states locate in direct neighboring with the countries that have had common interests with the US for a long time and they are regarded as allies. The need for creating stability in oil transmission lines through Caucasus has also caused the need for more US presence in the Caucasus events.
We should not ignore that relational stability of existing regimes in Central Asia is to some degree indebted to the American attempt for accessing to the energy sources of the region. Central Asian and Caucasus states in turn have used the factor of oil and gas both for their economic development and political relations with the US and European Union by using the experience of the Arabic countries of the Persian Gulf; and for their regional relation system and creating balance in relations with Russian Federation. While the Central Asian and Caspian countries have entered in the security system of the West and NATO as the result of NATO expansion to the region in various military and even technical and environmental spheres, and this factor has been used in the direction of undermining Russia, it seems unlikely that the US will be interested in the matter that Russia leaves Central Asia completely because we should consider that the US is beneficiary from the Russian presence in the region because of creating a balance for the influence of China and other regional countries. The complexity of China-Russian relations as two great neighbors and its mixing up with struggle and conflict during history helps the US use this facility.
The relations among the US, Russia and China in the region demonstrates a complicated situation, particularly after September 11th 2001. After American militaiy operation in Afghanistan and then Iraq and in spite of the Chinese cooperation with Russia and the US in confronting terrorism, the presence of American and NATO military bases near Chinese borders has threatened China long term situation including within the framework of Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The conditions of recent two years have caused more integration between Russia and China. China hopes that through reinforcing Shanghai Economic Cooperation Organization during recent two years, it can reach the various objectives like more extensive cooperation with Russia against unilateralism in bilateral relations and also wide economic cooperation with Central Asian countries and thus provides access to oil and gas sources of the region.
With regard to the role of the European Union in the quotations of the region, we should remind that the statesmen of this Union conceive a political-geographical power that enjoys a global influence. Their attempt for creating a European army and tendency to exercising control over Eurasian and Caspian Sea energy sources on behalf of Europe is in this direction. The European Union has issued the European Energy Charter in order to expand its influence. Geographic and economic facts demonstrate that the greatest market for the products of Caspian energy sources in future is the European market. Regardless of Europe and US presence in the security system of the region through NATO, we can regard the economic and political cooperation between Europe and the countries of the region as a positive development.
Generally after September 11th and particularly after Iraq war, world geopolitical perspective has been changed, especially the geopolitics of Central Asia and Caspian region has naturally seen more serious change. American attempts for dominating over this
region from early 1990s so far, reinforcing their military presence in the Persian Gulf and showing severe reaction to Kuwait occupation by Saddam Hussein who was under support before, concluding military and security contracts with Central Asia and Caucasus countries during past decade; invasion on Afghanistan; reinforcing military cooperation and through this give-and-take relation with Central Asia and Caucasus and creating military bases in this region; and the shift of combating terrorism and invasion on Iraq in order to overthrow Saddam Hussein regime; and finally declaring Central Asia, Caucasus and Caspian region as the region of American vital interests, - all indicate the fact that the Southern and Central part of Eurasia has found a salient role in the coming geopolitical rivalries in the world. By focusing on the main factor of power, namely energy, in this region and dominance over its transmission lines, the US tries to exercise their influence in the most significant geopolitical region of the contemporary era, to control Russia and China simultaneously, to reduce the possibility of creating integration and adherence between the two powers, to prevent from the dependence of oil pipelines on Russia and Iran and finally warrant their hegemony and leadership in the world.
Other countries of the region such as Iran, Turkey, Pakistan and India have also entered this regional game essentially. Iran and Turkey enjoy their previous historical relations and cultural, traditional, religious and linguistic common habits. At the same time, these two countries along with India and Pakistan have also engaged in extensive economic activities. These countries are confronted with the issue of energy sources and through their bilateral relations with Central Asian and Caucasus countries, their position are effective in the great powers game over energy. At this juncture, Turkey has properly used its linguistic and religious common matters with the Turkish peoples of Central Asia and Caucasus and also its long-standing alliance with the US. The launch of construction of Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline and exploiting it in near future clearly demonstrates the US effectiveness in the energy exploitation and transmission game in the region. Using its historical role in the region and also the fact of being the best way for connecting Central Asia and Caspian to the Gulf, Iran has adopted serious and active measures in these republics.
Iran highlights its position in relation to other regional countries. We may say that one of the most obvious manifestations of tension in Iran-US relations is the US opposition to oil transmission pipelines through Iran that has doubtlessly affected Iran long-term interests in this region. Iran is also engaged in a long and erosive negotiation trend in the field of dividing Caspian resources which has not resulted in a certain outcome. At the same time, considering Iranian economic potentials and the undeniable fact of its geographical and transitional, the partially energy transmission, except for Russian traditional lines, has been actualized through Iran so far, in spite of the existing pressures. The attractiveness of Iranian connecting lines is so high that regional countries cannot ignore it and they hope find the proper possibility of using this great highway completely by improving Iran-US relations. The relatively serious cooperation of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan with Iran at present in the field of oil and gas transmission is proving this fact.
Geopolitical analysis of the great powers game over energy sources of the region is a frank interpretation of their policies, decisions and adopted measures during recent past years. The matter which is ignored in these measures is the historical and civilization origin of issues in international relations, the role of national and historical culture and traditions in the scene of foreign policy and international relations. Many of the disasters which human being has seen have been the consequences of unilateral and one-
dimensional economic and military decisions and measures which were in turn as the result of disregarding national values and cultures. Western powers imposed their own subjective divisions on other countries in order to conquer the resources. In fact, many of the events of the last decade of 20th century have also been the result of several successive decades of Cold War between two superpowers, the rule of militaristic and quite economic system in the world during past century, dividing geographical borders after the World War II disregarding historical and cultural facts of each region and ideological outlook to the international relations.
Globalization diminishing differences in some aspects unfortunately plays a segregating role in its path under the impact of mere economic and militaristic system of states and big companies. The reaction of the people of different parts of the world to the globalization and its manifestations indicate the fact that globalization passes through a unilateral trend in different dimensions, including cultural sphere. The industry-based Western civilization reminds nowadays the second rule of thermodynamics in physics in its periodic transformations in which the system reaches a point where it feeds only from itself! In the present world equations, it seems that "spiritual and cultural energy sources" of human kind have been forgotten under the effect of rivalry over oil and gas sources.
Every kind of rivalry and cooperation in the future of the region and the world, paying attention to ethnical, cultural and national characteristics of every country and region and also the lack of segregation and delimit among nations and continents and finally using multilateralism and the instruments of dialogue is essential.
This hope occurs that the world in early new century, contrary to what some analysts believe, in the framework of rivalry for accessing energy sources, does not prepare the backgrounds required for entering a new stage and another kind of cold war or new divisions with ideological delimits.
ЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКИЕ РЕСУРСЫ: СОПЕРНИЧЕСТВО И СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВО В ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОЙ АЗИИ, КАСПИЙСКОМ И КАВКАЗСКОМ РЕГИОНАХ
М. САНАИ
Институт северо-американских и европейских исследований Тегеранский университет (Иран) ул. Азар, 16, Ангхелаб, Тегеран, Иран
Нефтяные и газовые ресурсы Центральной Азии и Каспийского региона привлекают внимание мировых и региональных держав. Исходя из этого, энергетические сети региона образуют основную ось соперничества и сотрудничества региональных держав Средней Азии и Кавказских республик. Находясь в центральной части Евразии, этот регион без сомнения может рассматриваться как важнейший мировой поставщик энергоресурсов, а также как составляющая мирового транзита и экономики. В игру великих держав в связи с энергоресурсами Центральной Азии и Каспия вовлекаются региональные государства, такие как Иран, Турция, Индия и Пакистан.
