Научная статья на тему 'Эмпирическое исследование взаимосвязи между реальным валютным курсом, экспортом и экономическим ростом во Вьетнаме'

Эмпирическое исследование взаимосвязи между реальным валютным курсом, экспортом и экономическим ростом во Вьетнаме Текст научной статьи по специальности «Экономика и бизнес»

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ЗАКОН VERDOORN / ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ РОСТ / РЕАЛЬНЫЙ ЭФФЕКТИВНЫЙ ВАЛЮТНЫЙ КУРС / ЭКСПОРТ / ВЬЕТНАМ / VERDOORN’S LAW / ECONOMIC GROWTH / REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE / EXPORT / VIETNAM

Аннотация научной статьи по экономике и бизнесу, автор научной работы — Дао Ван Хунг

В статье рассматриваются качественный и количественный анализ соотношения между реальным эффективным валютным курсом, экспортом и экономическим ростом во Вьетнаме. Результаты качественного анализа показали, что экономический рост, реальный эффективный валютный курс и экспорт во Вьетнаме, как правило, колеблются в одном и том же направлении. Кроме того, результаты оценки VECM показывают, что экономический рост способствует росту экспорта за счет повышения производительности и конкурентных преимуществ продукции и реального валютного курса. Таким образом, экономический рост оказал положительное влияние на экспорт во Вьетнаме.

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An empirical study of the relation between real effective exchange rate, export and economic growth in Vietnam

The article focuses on qualitative and quantitative analysis of the relation between real effective exchange rate, export and economicgrowth in Vietnam. The qualitative analysis results showed that economic growth, real effective exchange rate and export in Vietnam tend to fl uctuate in the same direction. Besides, the estimation result of VECM indicated that economic growth promoted export growth through higher productivity and competitive advantages of products and real exchange rate. Thus, economic growth had a positive impact on export in Vietnam.

Текст научной работы на тему «Эмпирическое исследование взаимосвязи между реальным валютным курсом, экспортом и экономическим ростом во Вьетнаме»

УДК 330.11

Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2017-2-

Дао Ван Хунг

Академия Политики и Развития при Министерстве Планирования и Инвестиций, Ханой, Вьетнам

Эмпирическое исследование взаимосвязи между реальным валютным курсом, экспортом и экономическим ростом во Вьетнаме

В статье рассматриваются качественный и количественный анализ соотношения между реальным эффективным валютным курсом, экспортом и экономическим ростом во Вьетнаме. Результаты качественного анализа показали, что экономический рост, реальный эффективный валютный курс и экспорт во Вьетнаме, как правило, колеблются в одном и том же направлении. Кроме того, результаты оценки VECM показывают, что экономический рост способствует

росту экспорта за счет повышения производительности и конкурентных преимуществ продукции и реального валютного курса. Таким образом, экономический рост оказал положительное влияние на экспорт во Вьетнаме.

Ключевые слова: закон Verdoorn, экономический рост, реальный эффективный валютный курс, экспорт, Вьетнам.

Dao Van Hung

Academy of Policy and Development under the Ministry of Planning and Investment, Hanoi, Vietnam

An empirical study of the relation between real effective exchange rate, export and economic growth in Vietnam

The article focuses on qualitative and quantitative analysis of the relation between real effective exchange rate, export and economic growth in Vietnam. The qualitative analysis results showed that economic growth, real effective exchange rate and export in Vietnam tend to fluctuate in the same direction. Besides, the estimation result of VECM indicated that economic growth promoted export growth

through higher productivity and competitive advantages of products and real exchange rate. Thus, economic growth had a positive impact on export in Vietnam.

Keywords: Verdoorn's Law, economic growth, real effective exchange rate, export, Vietnam.

1. Introduction

In 1949 Verdoorn P.J. [10] conducted the first quantitative research on relation between output growth and productivity growth, which was later referred to as "Verdoorn's Law". Verdoorn's law states that there is a relation between output growth and productivity growth, especially for production sector. The faster output growth will increase productivity because of economic efficiency by scale. Therefore, a fast-growing economy will also undergo productivity increase. If wages is not increased proportionately to productivity increase, the price will fall, increasing competitiveness of export goods and therefore promoting export. One of

factors representing international competitiveness is real effective exchange rate (REER).

In fact, the volatility of exchange rate has a close relation with performance of macro-economic activities. This is an important variable affecting the competitiveness of foreign trade goods and other variables in the economy. Change in exchange rate will change the relative prices of goods and services in domestic currency and foreign currencies, thus the rate will have a certain impact on export and import.

We can say that, Verdoorn's law is the basis for most of studies explaining the hypothesis on effect of economic growth on export. For instance, Helpman and Krugman's study (1985) suggested that [3], export may

increase through economic efficiency by scale which increases productivity. Increase in export continues to expand the scale, reduce costs and increase productivity. Bhagwati (1988) [1], economic growth will accelerate the formation of skills as well as technological advancements, contributing to improve production efficiency and competitive advantages of countries on the international market and thereby opening trade. Blecker (2009) [2] came up with the "Virtuous circle model" indicating the open circle of relationship in a positive direction between export and economic growth, in which the faster output growth will increase productivity of economic efficiency by scale. This will increase the competitive

Figure1. Exchange rates VND/USD, NEER and REER of Vietnam

(Source: General Statistics office of Vietnam [12] and authors' calculations)

advantages for countries' goods and export turnover.

Hence, on the basis of empirical researches, we can say that real effective exchange rate can be considered a channel transmitting impact of economic growth to export. Transmission mechanism of real effective exchange rate regarding impact of economic growth on export, especially: economic growth -> increase in the competitiveness of goods (REER) -> increase in export (X).

2. Current status of the relation between real effective exchange rate, export and economic growth in Vietnam

From 1992 to 1997, the exchange rate policy of the State Bank of Vietnam was operated by objectives agains inflation and attraction of foreign investment. To accomplish this goal, the exchange rate policy was operated in the direction of ensuring stability in the nominal exchange rate VND/USD. As a result of maintaining almost fixed nominal exchange rate when inflation has been controlled but still higher than inflation in the US and other countries in commercial relation with Vietnam, VND tended to be evaluated at higher price than the actual price in the period 1996-1998 (Figure 1). This has negatively affected export performance in which export growth rate reduced from 36% in 1994 down to 1.9% in 1998. Besides, in 2001-2007 and 2012-2013, VND/USD exchange rate remained almost constant. However, as the exchange rate peg mechanism at these periods did not decline so much real exchange rate, export growth still showed good performance in these years. In the period of 2008-2011, powerful VND devaluations happened continuously in response to the global economic crisis and dramatically high inflation in 2007-2008. Thereby, the effective exchange rate increased in 2010-2011 contributing to

powerful export growth after negative growth in 2009.

Generally, it can be seen that nominal exchange rate VND/ USD tends to follow a cycle including two stages:

1) The stage corresponding to strong economic fluctuation such as: the impact of Asian financial crisis in the period 1997-2000; the global economic crisis in the period 2008-2011 and the efforts of macroeconomic stabilization. The pressure of the market in these periods has forced Vietnam to extend the exchange rate band or formal devaluation, making NEER of Vietnam increase significantly compared to the previous period.

2) The stage when Vietnam's economy went into stable development such as in the priods

1993-1996 and 2001-2007.During this time, the anchor exchange rate mechanism by USD was applied quite rigidly.

Figure 1 shows the correlation between NEER and REER in the period 1994-2014. Both showed a downward trend in the period

1994-1998 and increased gradually in the period 1999-2004. However, since 2005, the two indices have diverged markedly. While NEER continued an upward trend, REER showed a downward trend. The rise of NEER was mainly due to the sharp devaluation of VND against USD through rate adjustments of

Figure 2. Reel effective exchange rate, GDP growth (GGDP) and export growth (GX)

(Source: General Statistics office of Vietnam [12] and authors' calculations)

Table

Test result of stationarity for data strings

Variables Value ADF (lag) critical value (1% significance level)

lnGDP ADF(1) = -1,068297 -3,540198

D(lnGDP) ADF(1) = -7,842268*** -3,542097

lnX ADF(4) = -0,719503 -3,546099

D(lnX) ADF(2) = -8,765850*** -3,544063

lnREER ADF(4) = -1,268523 -3,546099

D(lnREER) ADF(2) = -9,758012*** -3,544063

Notes: Symbol D is the first variance; (***) statistic significance level 1% (Source: Results from model estimations)

Table 2

Results of optimal lag test for variables

Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ

0 -113,2153 NA 0,014856 4,304271 4,414770 4,346886

1 182,8393 548,2493 3,59e-07 -6,327382 -5,885386 -6,156922

2 215,3793 56,64368 1,51e-07 -7,199234 -6,425740 -6,900927

3 240,0852 40,26143 8,49e-08 -7,780933 -6,675942 -7,354781

4 376,3471 206,9162 7,74e-10 -12,49434 -11,05785* -11,94034

5 391,0706 20,72199* 6,43e-10 -12,70632 -10,93833 -12,02448*

6 400,7622 12,56311 6,52e-10 -12,73193 -10,63245 -11,92224

7 411,8023 13,08463 6,39e-10* -12,80749* -10,37651 -11,86996

8 418,7423 7,454082 7,46e-10 -12,73120 -9,968720 -11,66582

Notes: * indicates lag order selected by the criterion

LR: Sequential modified LR test statistic

FPE: Final prediction error

AIC: Akaike's information criterion

SC: Schwarz criterion

HQ: Hannan-quinn criterion

(Source: Results from model estimations)

State Bank of Vietnam from 2008 to the first half of 2011. Furthermore, the continuous devaluation of US dollar compared to currencies of some major trade partners of Vietnam such as Australia, China, Japan, Thailand, etc. also resulted in significant devaluation of NEER of Vietnam. Meanwhile, as Vietnam's inflation has gone far beyond trade partners, REER of Vietnam has fallen since 2005, which fell sharply in 2008-2009, then increased in 2010-2011 and continued to decline in 2012-2016. This also explained to some extents why Vietnam's export had negative growth in 2009 and then recovered powerfully in the next two yeaars before declining in 2012-2015.

In addition, Figure 2 shows that although there are certain deviations, real effective exchange rate, export and economic growth of Vietnam tend to fluctuate in the same direction, especially during the period from 1995 to 1999 and from 2002 to 2012. This indicates a certain relationship between real effective exchange rate and economic growth of Vietnam in recent years. In 1996-1998, 2005-2009 and 2012-2016, real exchange rate tended to decline, which is consistent with the decline of export in the same years. Especially in economic crisis periods from 1997 to 1998 and from 2008 to 2009, economic growth, real effective exchange rate and export dropped sharply. However, as a result of increase in economic growth rate in 2002-2004 and 2010-2011, real effective exchange rate tended to rise and theoretically increase the competitiveness of international trade of Vietnam and strong export growth in those years has proven to some extents this relation.

3. Methods and results of research

For the purpose of an empirical study on the relation between economic growth, real effective exchange rate and export in Vietnam, the authors use Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) with

three variables on quarterly basis namely natural logarithm base of export (lnX), real effective exchange rate (lnREER) and Gross Domestic Product (lnGDP). Accordingly, the stationarity of lnX, lnREER and lnGDP is inspected through ADF test. The optimal lag of the model's variables is selected according to FPE (Final Prediction Error) criteria and AIC (Akaike Information Criteri-

1

on). Next, the Impulse Response Functions are also estimated with Variance Decomposition in order to assess impact of economic growth on Vietnam's export through the transmission channel known as real effective exchange rate. Real exchange rate representing export's competitiveness is the mediate variable of transmission channel from economic growth to export.

Table3

results of co-integrating test between lnGDp, MREER and lnX

Hypothesis H0 Eigenvalue Trace Statistic the critical value 10% Prob***

r =0 * 0,381738 41,46519 39,75526 0,0693

r <= 1 0,194413 14,53795 23,34234 0,6130

r <= 2 0,042493 2,431669 10,66637 0,9361

Hypothesis H0 Eigenvalue Max-Eigen Statistic the critical value 5% Prob**

r =0 ** 0,381738 26,92724 25,82321 0,0356

r <= 1 0,194413 12,10628 19,38704 0,4053

r <= 2 0,042493 2,431669 12,51798 0,9361

Notes: *, ** denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 5%, 10% level *** MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values (Source: Results from model estimations)

The authors use Eview software in model estimation. In particular, the statistics of gross domestic products GDP and export are taken from General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO) [12], figures of exchange rate are taken from International Monetary Fund IMF [13]. Data series have quarterly basis for the period from 1999 to 2014, including 64 observations.

To test the stationarity of figure series, the authors use Augument-ed Dickey Fuller (ADF) test. The results shows that all data strings in form of first variance logarithm are stopped (table 1).

Before testing whether the nonstop data strings have co-integrate relation or not, it is required to determine the optimal lag of model variables. Results of optimal lag test in Table 2 show that optimal lag selected for the model is 7 under FPE and AIC criteria.

As logarithmic variables for estimation do not stop, it is required to test the possibility of co-integrating vectors in time sequences by the method of Johansen and Juselius (1990). The results in table 3 show that both tests given by Johansen and Juselius namely matrix trace test and maximal eigenvalue test refute the hypothesis of not existing co-integrating vectors and claim that there are at least one co-integrating vector at the significance level of 5%.

VECM with lnGDP, ln-REER, lnX variables is estimated with 7 lags in each variable in the general form as follows:

D(ln GDP) = a1 +

7

+ £ K-D(ln GDP(-i)) + l

+ /3XiD(ln REER(-i)) + + YiD(ln X (-i))) + + A1EC (-l) + D2007 + e1 (1)

D(ln REER) = a2 +

+ fj(a2iD(\n GDP(-i)) + 1

+ fi2iD(ln REER(-i)) + + Y2,D(ln X (-i))) + + A2 EC (-1) + D2007 + e2 (2)

Table 4

Result of VECM estimation

Independent variables Dependent variables

D(lnGDP) D(lnREER) D(lnX)

EC(-1) -0,054537** [-1,99323] 0,078145 [ 1,16315] -0,423375*** [-2,50833]

D(lnGDP(-1)) -1,006414*** [-5,48566] 0,489461 [ 1,08651] 0,239742 [ 0,21183]

D(lnGDP(-2)) -0,720429*** [-3,02692] 0,578957 [ 0,99065] 0,788476 [ 0,53702]

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D(lnGDP(-3)) -0,224906 [-1,02811] -0,123955 [-0,23076] 1,491219 [ 1,10503]

D(lnGDP(-4)) 0,839781*** [ 4,72488] -0,657989* [-1,50767] 2,888757*** [ 2,63468]

D(lnGDP(-5)) 0,938473*** [ 3,76894] -1,295394** [-2,11867] 2,628094** [ 1,71092]

D(lnGDP(-6)) 0,622421** [ 2,28386] -1,377075** [-2,05782] 1,892270 [ 1,12554]

D(lnGDP(-7)) 0,054442 [ 0,26963] -0,661590* [-1,33440] 1,211857 [ 0,97292]

D(lnREER(-1)) -0,027492 [-0,29402] 0,230124 [ 1,00230] -0,681549 [-1,18157]

D(lnREER(-2)) -0,088571 [-0,97894] 0,150055 [ 0,67543] -0,419969 [-0,75244]

D(lnREER(-3)) -0,055152 [-0,62609] 0,006885 [ 0,03183] -0,318140 [-0,58545]

D(lnREER(-4)) -0,061609 [-0,77833] 0,490980*** [ 2,52606] 0,161179 [ 0,33008]

D(lnREER(-5)) -0,205352*** [-2,46869] 0,146421 [ 0,71686] -0,252851 [-0,49275]

D(lnREER(-6)) -0,158269** [-1,95174] -0,001344 [-0,00675] -0,506456 [-1,01242]

D(lnREER(-7)) -0,020787 [-0,29281] 0,142264 [ 0,81611] 0,082164 [ 0,18761]

D(lnX(-1)) 0,076788** [ 1,90534] -0,167310** [-1,69068] 0,023965 [ 0,09639]

D(lnX(-2)) 0,059435* [ 1,56255] -0,237440*** [-2,54218] 0,020754 [ 0,08845]

D(lnX(-3)) 0,044484 [ 1,22546] -0,071575 [-0,80300] 0,088786 [ 0,39649]

D(lnX(-4)) -0,010749 [-0,34621] -0,037671 [-0,49415] -0,214359 [-1,11924]

D(lnX(-5)) -0,008136 [-0,31751] -0,008889 [-0,14128] -0,176014 [-1,11352]

D(lnX(-6)) 0,026197 [ 1,11819] -0,061092 [-1,06196] -0,125109 [-0,86565]

D(lnX(-7)) -0,011329 [-0,50010] -0,116556** [-2,09528] 0,043792 [ 0,31335]

D2007 0,003494 [ 0,64450] -0,029188** [-2,19285] 0,079615** [ 2,38079]

LM Test Lags LM-Stat Prob

1 4,565529 0,8704

2 3,689794 0,9306

3 15,36943 0,0813

4 15,89765 0,0690

5 10,63776 0,3014

6 3,196400 0,9560

7 9,469331 0,3951

White Test ei2 Chi-sq (45) Prob

e 2 e1 51,42800 0,2366

e 2 e2 34,56300 0,8702

e 2 e3 43,38464 0,5405

e1* e2 45,17343 0,4647

e1* e3 50,77594 0,2565

e2* e3 40,21560 0,6745

Notes: value in brackets [] is t-statistic

(***), (**), (*) (***) statistic significance level 1%, 5%, 10%

(Source: Results from model estimations)

Summary of estimation results shown in table 4 prove the existence of error correction mechanism for lnGDP and lnX variables. This proves the existence of the long-term relation between export real effective exchange rate and economic growth of Vietnam. Besides, there is a two-way short-term relation between export and economic growth which have effect on real effective exchange rate. In addition, the estimation results show that WTO accession in 2007 had a positive impact on export promotion of Vietnam. For economic growth, the coefficient of D2007 has no statistical significance, but the sign of this coefficient is positive. Results of model defect inspection indicate that the estimation model is free from defects of autocorrelation and error variance change.

Figure 3 shows response functions to shocks during the period of 10 terms (quarters) of research. Cholesky of sequence of impulse variables in the model follows the transmission channel of economic growth to export, lnGDP, ln-REER, lnX respectively. Accordingly, real exchange rate responds immediately to GDP shocks with the strongest response level in the

Table 5

Variance Decomposition of lnGDP

Quarter 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

S.E. 0,0100 0,0104 0,0112 0,0128 0,0173 0,0176 0,0180 0,0189 0,0224 0,0226

lnGDP 100,000 93,1683 92,2408 89,8754 89,7907 88,5300 88,9559 84,6885 87,0167 86,1252

lnREER 0,0000 6,7552 6,1228 6,3148 3,5791 3,5645 3,4078 3,4005 2,4310 2,4315

lnX 0,0000 0,0766 1,6364 3,8097 6,6302 7,9056 7,6363 11,9110 10,5524 11,4433

Variance Decomposition of lnREER

Quy 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

S.E. 0,0245 0,0360 0,0438 0,0472 0,0528 0,0578 0,0598 0,0610 0,0637 0,0663

lnGDP 15,7738 24,6115 27,5174 26,2338 22,2128 19,1868 17,9176 17,6019 16,4678 15,4578

lnREER 84,2262 74,8014 68,8279 70,5571 74,7763 77,0020 77,9142 77,8115 76,4577 75,4455

lnX 0,0000 0,5871 3,6547 3,2091 3,0109 3,8113 4,1682 4,5865 7,0745 9,0967

Variance Decomposition of lnX

Quarter 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

S.E. 0,0616 0,0689 0,0756 0,0855 0,1005 0,1094 0,1135 0,1191 0,1233 0,1260

lnGDP 3,1392 3,6364 8,8663 16,6129 25,3599 26,6840 27,0836 25,8066 24,1021 23,1167

lnREER 16,1924 22,2083 28,7702 34,6012 36,0058 39,2217 40,8519 44,6113 47,3926 48,8003

lnX 80,6684 74,1553 62,3635 48,7859 38,6343 34,0943 32,0645 29,5821 28,5053 28,0830

Notes: Cholesky Ordering: lnGDP lnREER lnX (Source: Results from model estimations)

Figure 3. Response of variables to shocks

(Source: Results from model estimations)

D(ln X ) = ö-3 +

+ ¿(«3 D(ln GDP(-i)) + 1

+ ß3iD(ln REER(-i)) +

+ Y3,D(ln X (-i))) + + Л3 EC (-1) + D2007 + e3

(3)

In which: XiEC(-1) is the imbalance between short-term value and long-term value.

EC(-1): is error correction variable;

Xi: is the coefficient of error correction variable which indicates the speed of access to long-term equilibrium. In particular, the average lag of adjustment to long-term equilibrium is -1/Xi. It means that the higher absolute value of Xi is, the faster adjustment process takes place.

Results of variance decomposition

second and the third quarter and declining thereafter. GDP shocks have prompt impact on export with the strongest and fullest effect in the fifth quarter and then declining significantly. Export also has immediate response to long-term and short-term real exchange rate shocks.

Variance decomposition results in table 5 indicate that, in the first quarter, the past values accounted for over 80% of volatility of all variables, especially the GDP volatility is affected nearly 100% by shocks of itself. Also, GDP shocks explain over 15% of real exchange rate volatility, in which the highest is in the

third quarter with the explanatory factor of 27.5%. Similarly, in terms of export, GDP shocks has relatively high explanatory factor which rises gradually from 3.13% in the first quarter to 27% in the seventh quarter. Especially, the volatility of export is greatly influenced by short-term and long-term exchange rate shocks with the explanatory factor increasing from 16.19% in the first quarter to 36% in the fifth quarter and 48.8% in the tenth quarter.

4. Conclusion

Exchange rate has a close relation with macro-economic per-

formance. This is an important variable affecting the competitiveness of foreign trade goods and other variables in the economy. Qualitative analysis showed the correlation between real effective exchange rate, export and economic growth. This statement is strengthen when VECM analysis results also indicates that economic growth contributes to export promotion through increase in productivity and competitive advantage of products and real effective exchange rate represents the competitiveness of international trade and transmits effects of economic growth to export in Vietnam.

Литература

1. Bhagwati, J.N. (1988). Export-promoting Strategy: issues and evidence. The World Bank Research Obsever, 3(1), Pp. 27—57.

2. Blecker, R.A. (2009). Long-Run Growth in Open Economies: Export-Led Cumulative Causation or a Balance-of-Payments Constraint? Working Papers, number 2009—23, Department of Economics, American University.

3. Helpman, E. and Krugman, P. (1985). Market Structure and Foreign Trade. MIT Press, Cambridge.

4. Johansen S. Statistical Analysis of Cointegra-tion Vectors//Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1988, Vol. 12, Pp.231-254.

5. Johansen S. Maximum likehood estimation and inference on cointegration-with applications to the demand for money/S. Johansen and Juselius K.//Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, Vol. 52, №2, 1990, Pp.169-210.

6. Kenichi Ohno. Exchange rate management of Vietnam: re-examination of Police goals and mo-dality//Vietnam development Forum, 2003. [Electronic resource]. — Available at: http://www.gnps. ac.jp/vietnam/KOarchives/doc/EP13_IPE.pdf

7. Nguyen Tran Phuc, Nguyen Duc-Tho. Exchange Rate Policy in Vietnam, 1985-2008 // Griffith University. February 2009. [Electronic resource]. — Available at: http://www.griffith.edu.au/ data/assets/pdf_file/ 0010 /190882/2009-03-exchan gerate-policy-in-vietnam-1985-2008.pdf

8. Nguyen Tran Phuc. Implications of Exchange Rate Policy for Foreign Exchange Market Development: Vietnam, 1986—2008. /Phuc Tran Nguyen.-Working paper, Griffen University, Australia, 2009.

9. Sahni, P. and Atri, V.N. (2012). Export-Led Growth In India: An Empirical Investigation. International Journals of Marketing and Technology (IJMT), 2 (7), Pp. 283-298.

References

1. Bhagwati, J.N. (1988). Export-promoting Strategy: issues and evidence. The World Bank Research Obsever, 3(1), 27—57.

2. Blecker, R.A. (2009). Long-Run Growth in Open Economies: Export-Led Cumulative Causation or a Balance-of-Payments Constraint?. Working Papers, number 2009—23, Department of Economics, American University.

3. Helpman, E. and Krugman, P. (1985). Market Structure and Foreign Trade. MIT Press, Cambridge.

4. Johansen S. Statistical Analysis of Cointegra-tion Vectors//Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1988, Vol. 12, pp.231-254.

5. Johansen S. Maximum likehood estimation and inference on cointegration-with applications to the demand for money/S.Johansen and Juselius K.//Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, Vol. 52, №2, 1990, pp.169-210.

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Сведения об авторе

Дао Ван Хунг

Кандидат экономических наук, доцент, директор

Академия Политики и Развития при Министерстве Планирования и Инвестиций, Ханой, Вьетнам Эл. почта: daohungvan@gmail.com Тел: (+84)-903-418-235

10. Verdoorn, J.P. (1949). On the Factors Determining the Growth of Labor Productivity. In L. Pasinetti (ed.), Italian Economic Papers, Vol. II, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993.

11. Vo Tri Thanh and co-auther. Exchange Rate Arrangement in Vietnam: Information Content and Policy Options//East Asian Development Network (EADN), Hanoi, 2000. [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www. eadn .org/ eadnwp18.pdf

12. General Statistics Office of Vietnam. URL: http://www.gso.gov.vn/

13. International Monetary Fund IMF. URL: http://www.imf.org/

Information about the author

Dao Van Hung

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Director

Academy of Policy and Development under the Ministry of planning and investment, Hanoi, Vietnam E-mail: daohungvan@gmail.com Tel: (+84)-903-418-235

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