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6. Цихан Т.В. Кластерная теория экономического развития // Теория и практика.
УДК 339.9
Экономические науки
Лыкова Маргарита Владимировна, студент магистратуры ФГАОУ ВО «Северный (Арктический) федеральный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова»
ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ИНТЕРЕСЫ ИНДИИ В АРКТИЧЕСКОМ РЕГИОНЕ
Аннотация: Арктика является регионом, который привлекает к себе большое внимание как арктических, так и неарктических, отдаленных от Северного полушария стран. Внимание азиатских государств, в том числе и Индии, к Арктике отражает их стремление доказать свою международную состоятельность. Основная причина интереса Индии, страны с быстроразвивающейся экономикой и стремительно растущим населением, заключается в осведомленности об огромных ресурсах, которыми богат Арктический регион.
Ключевые слова: арктический регион, экономика Индии, интересы неарктических стран в Арктике, Северный морской путь, природные ресурсы Арктики.
Abstract: The Arctic is a region that attracts much attention from both the Arctic and non-Arctic, distant from the northern hemisphere of countries. The attention of Asian states, including India, to the Arctic reflects their desire to prove their international consistency. The main reason for the interest of India, a country with a fast-growing economy and a rapidly growing population, is the awareness of the vast resources with which the Arctic region is rich.
Keywords: Arctic region, economy of India, interests of non-Arctic countries in the Arctic, Northern Sea Route, natural resources of the Arctic.
India does not have an official Arctic program or strategy where the economic interests of the country would be consolidated, but through the activities of India in the Arctic region it is possible to trace the country's interest in the Arctic to energy
resources, strengthening the economic presence and capabilities of the Northern Sea Route.
Before proceeding to a more detailed description of the economic interests of India in the Arctic, it is necessary to characterize briefly the economic potential of the country. At the moment, India has one of the largest economies in the world. This is the third largest economy in the world in terms of GDP after China and the United States. India's share in global PPP GDP was 7.02% in 2017 [2]. During the years of independent development, India has come a long way in the economy, which is currently one of the fastest growing in the world. However, the growth rate of the Indian population is outpacing the growth rate of the Indian economy. According to the United Nations Population Fund, India ranks second in terms of the world's population [7]. The Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs provides various statistical information on the world's population. According to this information, in 2018, the population of India was about 1.359 billion people. The population growth rate in India in 2018 was about 46,670 people per day [4]. For China, which occupies the 1st place in the world in terms of population, this indicator is much lower - 19,708 people per day [5]. It is expected that soon India will overtake China in terms of population.
The rapid development of the economy and the rapid growth of the Indian population are closely related to the growing needs of the population, including needs in energy resources. Therefore, India has fixed its view on the deposits of natural resources in the Arctic region. The country ranks fourth in terms of crude oil imports after the European Union, the United States of America and China. Due to the lack of its own energy resources, India is in a rather strong dependence on energy imports. The country imports about 58% of crude oil from the territories of the Middle East, mainly from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Iran [13, P. 109]. However, it is worth noting that India has reduced imports from the Middle East since 2011 and assumes its increase from Africa, mainly from Nigeria. India also imports oil from Latin America, primarily from Venezuela [12].
The Arctic also was not left unnoticed by India. The Arctic is one of the most resource-rich regions of the planet. The subsoil of the Arctic region stores up to a third of the world's hydrocarbon reserves. The presence of large reserves of mineral raw materials on the Arctic shelf is confirmed by almost all expert assessments.
Based on the forecast of the International Energy Agency, it can be argued that by 2030, India will take the position of the world's third largest consumer of energy resources [14, P. 107]. 15% of the growth in world consumption will belong to India, because it will come pretty close to China and will be able to become the second largest driver of demand for energy resources. It is important to note that for India, as well as for China, the diversification of energy import vectors is an important criterion in ensuring the country's energy security, but the rapid pace of industrial development of India entail a sharp increase in the country's needs for a particular raw material, in particular, hydrocarbons [12].
It is also worth noting that in 2030, 6% of the consumed reserves of world energy will come from India and the country's energy consumption during the estimated period will be more than doubled [14, P. 109]. In connection with the shortage of its sources of primary energy resources, the country will be forced to constantly increase such imports.
Thus, energy resources are an important object of interest to the Arctic from India. It is impossible not to note the fact that India considers the results of monitoring the presence of significant Arctic hydrocarbon reserves to be adequate and would like to show an active position and active participation in the development of polar wealth [12]. In the first place, the country counts on cooperation and partnership with Russia in this regard. India already takes part in projects on Sakhalin, and in December 2009, during the visit of Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister of India, to Moscow a question was raised regarding the access of Indian companies to the European North of Russia [11].
India's largest oil and gas corporation ONGC and AFK Sistema signed a cooperation agreement in December 2010, and in 2011 it was announced that India could take the place of a partner in the development of oil resources and deposits
named after A. Titov and R. Trebs in Nenets autonomous region (their reserves are estimated at 63.4 million and 78.9 million tons of oil). Skeptics, however, including Indian, believe that the technological and financial capabilities of India are not sufficient for full and comprehensive participation in the process of developing the Arctic [3, c. 15].
A total of 20 bilateral agreements were signed at the talks held during the BRICS summit in March 2018, including on expanding cooperation at the Vankor oil project. Over the past year, countries have significantly developed relations on the Russian northern energy projects. In early October, a consortium of Indian companies led by Oil India Ltd. formalized the acquisition of 23.9% of Vankorneft, which develops the giant Vankor oil field under Rosneft control [11]. The agreement in the amount of $ 2.021 billion was followed by a deal of selling a 29.9% share of Taas-Yuryakh Neftegazodobycha LLC. The base price of the transaction is 1.12 billion dollars (about 70 billion rubles), according to Rosneft [14, P. 110]. Both projects are located in the Russian northern tundra zone to the west of the Yenisei river. The Indian company ONGC Videash Limited, in turn, acquired 11% of Vankorneft. President Putin also invites Indians to the Russian shelf. The declaration, signed by the leaders of the two states at the end of the talks, states that the countries intend to work together in the waters of the Arctic [14, P. 112].
India is interested in establishing relations with Russia in order to realize its own interests in the Arctic regarding the geopolitical and economic areas. Under the conditions of a perceived deterioration in relations with Western countries, interest in Russia's strategic cooperation is reviving due to the RIC triangle as a form of opposition to the United States of America and its associates [1]. India and China are the most important potential or actual markets for products of the military-industrial and fuel and energy complexes of the Russian Federation, which, in turn, provides the embodiment of such a strategy. But China and India, nevertheless, successfully develop business relations with the United States of America in the cultural, economic and even military sphere and have no interest in exacerbating the confrontation of a geopolitical nature in accordance with the interests of the Russian
Federation. It is worth pointing out that, on the other hand, the strengthening of China's role in the world economy, one way or another, is causing concern to both India and Russia; relations of the first with the People's Republic of China remain rather tense due to the relations of Pakistan and China and territorial disputes perceived by India as a direct threat to their own security [6]. The continuing political controversies between India and China make it difficult for these countries to have partnerships in the Arctic [11].
Thus, in order to further strengthen bilateral partnership in the oil and gas industry, Russia has expressed interest in attracting Indian companies to participate in joint projects devoted to the development and research of the Arctic shelf of the Russian Federation.
It is also important to point out that some Indian experts play the role of opposing the expansion of gas and oil production, arguing that the production and exploration of hydrocarbons in the Arctic are associated with various risks, lack of important and required technologies for work regarding environmental issues, as well as with significant hazards due to climate change [3, a 27].
Also, through economic cooperation, India seeks not only to gain access to energy resources, but also to consolidate its geopolitical and economic position in the region. The Indian state seeks economic cooperation not only with the previously mentioned Russia and North America, but also with the countries of Scandinavia, which would help increase the importance of India in the Arctic [1]. It is worth noting that India's economic relations with the Scandinavian countries are contradictory. A major obstacle in the development of relations is the weak activity of Indian business structures and investments in the economy of the Arctic countries. According to statistics from the International Trade Center, the trade balance between India and the Scandinavian countries is in poor condition. Thus, there are rather weak ties in trade between India and the Scandinavian countries, which may become a problem for the advancement of their economic and geopolitical interests in the Arctic region [9].
India's economic interests in the Arctic are also linked to the Northern Sea Route. For India, the prospect of establishing a permanent sea passage along the
arctic highway is unprofitable, which seems possible only if ice continues to melt in this region. Indian experts are convinced that this condition can complicate the implementation of India's rather ambitious maritime strategy, whose goal is to transform the country into a major force in the vast expanses of the Indian Ocean [1]. Shyam Saran, the former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of India, noted that the possible change of orientation of the Asian-European transit routes to the Northern Sea Route from the Indian Ocean would lead to "a fall in the relative importance of the countries that are currently controlling traditional transport routes" [8]. The Indian Minister of Defense, in turn, noted that "the melting of the glaciers of the Arctic Circle will entail significant consequences in terms of the degree of suitability of certain sections of the World Ocean for future sea navigation" [8]. Indian ports receive substantial revenues by servicing vessels that pass through sea transit from Asia to Europe. According to the Association of Indian Ports, in February-April 2016, the volume of processed products was 550,449 tons, and in February-April 2017 - 586,296 tons [11]. India has 13 large (approximately 72% of cargo turnover) and 176 small ports, which are under state control. If the Arctic sea traffic starts, it may adversely affect the Indian economy in the future [10]. The strategic position that characterizes the Indian Ocean can be reduced, and this, in turn, will be a significant challenge for India itself, which tends to dominate in the Indian Ocean and South Asia [3, c. 37].
Based on the opinion of Indian military experts, heightened attention to the Arctic could make the United States reduce its own presence and activity in the Indian Ocean by redeploying. It is noteworthy that China, which is trying to multiply its military presence in the region of India, will be able to take advantage of this, in particular, through the joint construction of the Gwadar port, which the Chinese Navy can receive [14, P. 114].
It is important to point out that India, despite the conditions of a difficult financial condition and tension in the economic and social spheres, does not consider in the future the provision of an initiative regarding the affairs of the Arctic to its rival in the region - China. India is trying to implement its own strategy regarding the
Arctic and leaves room for a certain maneuver, for example, supporting the initiatives of Japan, China and the United States on the cosmopolitanization of access to the Arctic energy resources and the transport capabilities of the Northern Sea Route [14, P. 115].
Thus, India, being a country with a fast-growing economy and a rapidly growing population, has its own economic interests in the Arctic, which are primarily related to energy resources. India also seeks to strengthen its economic presence in the region against the background of the growing interest of other non-Arctic countries in the Arctic. To a greater extent, the country is able to do this in the Russian Arctic territories and to a lesser extent with the countries of Scandinavia. Unlike many other countries, India does not find it advantageous to develop the Northern Sea Route, since traditional sea trade routes pass through the ports of the Indian state and reorientation of other countries to the Northern Sea Route use can harm the economy of India.
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УДК 338
Экономические науки
Дунь Григорий Владимирович, Студент, Санкт-Петербургский государственный университет, Санкт-Петербург, Россия
КАЛУЖСКАЯ ОБЛАСТЬ НА РЫНКЕ ВНУТРЕННЕГО ТУРИЗМА РФ
