CC BY
14
POLITICAL SCIENCES
ECONOMIC COOPERATION OF THE UAE IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE COOPERATION COUNCIL OF THE ARAB STATES OF THE GULF WITH THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Alnuaimi Humaid Saeed Hamad Saeedi (Republic of Kazakhstan) Email: Alnuaimi576@scientifictext.ru
Alnuaimi Humaid Saeed Hamad Saeedi - Master Student, DEPARTMENT OF REGIONAL STUDIES, FACULTY OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, L.N. GUMILYOV EURASIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, NUR-SULTAN, REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN
Abstract: this article examines the main vectors of cooperation between countries, especially the United Arab Emirates within the framework of the Gulf Cooperation Council with the United States of America. Emphasis is placed on the modern challenges that countries face and the ways of solutions that are developed within the framework of dialogue between states. The systematic solution of issues within the framework of regional security makes it possible to talk about the effectiveness of the instruments and mechanisms of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Additionally, given that oil remains essential to the global economy in the short to medium term, the US strategic relationship with the Gulf countries will continue to develop.
Keywords: USA, UAE, relations, Middle East, military-political cooperation, interstate cooperation, GCC.
ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЕ СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВО ОАЭ В РАМКАХ СОВЕТА СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВА АРАБСКИХ ГОСУДАРСТВ ПЕРСИДСКОГО ЗАЛИВА С СОЕДИНЕННЫМИ ШТАТАМИ АМЕРИКИ Альнуаими Хумайд Саид Хамад Саиди (Республика Казахстан)
Альнуаими Хумайд Саид Хамад Саиди - магистр, кафедра регионоведения, факультет международных отношений, Евразийский национальный университет им. Л.Н. Гумилева, г. Нур-Султан, Республика Казахстан
Аннотация: в данной статье рассматриваются основные векторы сотрудничества между странами, в особенности Объединенных Арабских Эмиратов с Соединенными Штатами Америки в рамках Совета сотрудничества стран Персидского залива. Особое внимание уделяется современным вызовам, с которыми сталкиваются страны, а также путям их решения, которые вырабатываются в рамках диалога между государствами. Систематическое решение проблем в вопросах региональной безопасности позволяет говорить об эффективности инструментов и механизмов работы Совета сотрудничества стран Персидского залива. Более того, учитывая тот факт, что нефть сохраняет важное значение для мировой экономики в краткосрочной и среднесрочной перспективе, стратегические отношения США со странами Персидского залива будут продолжать динамично развиваться.
Ключевые слова: США, ОАЭ, отношения, Ближний Восток, военно-политическое сотрудничество, межгосударственное сотрудничество, ССАГПЗ.
Relevance of the research topic. In modern conditions, the role of such interrelated processes as globalization, regionalization and integration in the further formation of international economic relations is increasing, the importance of integration-type economic groupings created in the developing world as a relatively new phenomenon is growing. In this context, an important place in the system of regional
75
economic associations is occupied by the Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC), of which Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Saudi Arabia are members, which has made the greatest progress in the field of economic cooperation among similar economic groupings in Asia and Africa [1]. In many respects it is this circumstance, as well as unique significance Cooperation Council in the International Economic Complex due to the presence of the largest hydrocarbon reserves.
The choice of trade and economic relations between the GCC and the United States as an object of scientific analysis is due to the fact that historically these relations largely predetermined the path of development of the Arabian monarchies and now form the basis of their economic policy. At the same time, the general concept of these ties is formulated in such a way that the countries of the Cooperation Council inevitably fall into the sphere of strategic economic and political interests of the largest consumer of energy resources - the United States, which considers the stability of oil supplies and the maintenance of prices for this raw material within certain boundaries as one of the priority tasks of national security. Moreover, the US administration views oil prices as a tool to influence the rate of global economic growth. As a result of the action of these factors, an economic phenomenon arose, which in Western literature has received the name of «strategic partnership», the essence of which is that the oil policy of the states of the Cooperation Council, which have significant capabilities to regulate world oil prices, is largely determined by the interests of the American administration, which it implements through a system of trade, economic, military-technical and political ties with the Arabian monarchies [2].
The special position of the United States in the system of foreign economic relations of the GCC countries and the decisive role of Arab-American cooperation in setting world oil prices largely predetermined the significant scientific and practical interest of economic science in a comprehensive study of the nature, manifestation and content of trade and economic relations between the GCC and the United States.
In the system of these problems, a thorough analysis of the investment, trade, and military-technical aspects of cooperation between the GCC and the United States indicates that, being caused by the oil factor at an early stage in the early 1970s, these areas of trade and economic ties have grown into independent directions of the Arabian-American interaction with the corresponding socio-economic and military-political consequences [3].
Achievement of this goal predetermined the formulation and solution of the following tasks: determination of the main spheres of Arabian-American trade and economic relations, analysis of their interdependence and complex nature;
- identification of economic and political prerequisites and incentives for the formation and development of trade and economic relations between the GCC and the United States;
- study of the concept of "strategic partnership" between the states of the Arabian Six and the United States and the existing contradictions within the framework of this "partnership";
- analysis of structural changes in the world oil market since the beginning of the 21st century, and the role of Arabian-American ties in these processes, as well as identifying prospects for the development of the world energy market in the context of the evolution of strategic ties between the GCC and the United States;
- consideration of the impact of current political and social processes in the GCC countries and the United States on the state of their bilateral economic ties;
- characteristics of the legal framework for foreign economic activity of the GCC and the United States;
- assessment of the current state and prospects for the development of processes of economic liberalization, diversification and integration in the states of the Cooperation Council in the context of developing relations with the United States; forecasting the prospects for the further development of Arabian-American trade and economic ties [3].
As follows from the study, the trade and economic relations of the GCC with the United States are of great importance for both parties. The processes of integration of the states of the Arabian Six and the liberalization of the regulation of their foreign economic activity, which have recently accelerated, contribute significantly to the transformation and development of these relations. For example, the
76
creation of a customs union within the framework of the GCC gave a new impetus to the development of trade relations of these states with the United States and is intended to contribute to the development of a unified US trade strategy in relation to the Arabian Six. In the long term, the countries of the Cooperation Council are striving to achieve full economic integration, which, of course, will lead to significant structural changes in economic relations with the United States. Integration processes contribute to a more efficient distribution of resources in the region, increase the global competitiveness of the countries of the Arabian Six, which creates additional potential for the development of Arab-American trade and investment relations.
At the same time, these processes have a contradictory impact on relations with the United States. The American administration continues to develop relations with individual countries of the Arabian Six, and not with the entire bloc as a whole, while the European Union provides all-round support to the integration processes within the GCC. Thus, the creation of a customs union was a prerequisite for the signing of a free trade agreement between the EU and the Cooperation Council. The United States, on the other hand, concludes such agreements exclusively with individual members of the GCC [4].
Based on the specific plans and programs of the governments of the Arabian Six, it seems that the pace of integration processes within the Cooperation Council will accelerate. In such a situation, the United States may face the threat of losing its dominant position in the economy of the member states of the Arabian integration bloc, if it does not radically revise the mechanisms for realizing its economic interests in the Middle East.
As for the liberalization of foreign economic relations of the GCC countries, the Arabian monarchies are striving to adhere to a single strategy, the analysis of which reflects the desire of these states to improve the investment climate, remove obstacles to foreign trade and ensure a large role for private capital, including American, in their economic development. Measures in this direction are becoming increasingly important for Arab-American trade and investment relations. However, at the same time, the majority of leaders of the countries of the Cooperation Council take a rather cautious position on the issue of further liberalization, fearing a sharp decline in the historically dominant role of the state in regulating the economy. Both Arab and Western experts believe that the Arabian monarchies need to take more active measures in this direction to improve their global competitiveness and address pressing macroeconomic challenges [4].
It should be noted that the liberalization of foreign economic activity in the GCC countries has an ambiguous effect on their economic ties with the United States. So, on the one hand, the aforementioned processes facilitate the access of American companies to the market of the countries of the Cooperation Council, and on the other hand, the United States is faced with increasing competition from other countries. In the face of significant obstacles to foreign economic activity in the GCC, the United States had a comparative advantage in penetrating the market of Arabian monarchies due to a well-developed system of information, legal and political support for the activities of American business in these states, which was the result of the Arabian-American strategic relations. Now, the economic liberalization within the GCC is leading to a decrease in the significance of this advantage for the United States.
As for privatization, this direction of economic policy is considered by the leaders of the GCC states as a measure to ensure a greater role for private capital, including American, in the development of the national economy. Denationalization of the largest Arabian companies creates attractive investment opportunities for American entrepreneurs.
Noting the importance of the economic policy of the Arabian Six for the development of trade and economic ties with the United States, one must not forget that the factor that laid the foundation for this cooperation was the abundance of hydrocarbon reserves in the GCC countries. The United States has always pursued strategic goals in relations with the Arabian monarchies, which possess almost half of the world's oil reserves. The economic interests of the United States in this region are primarily aimed at ensuring free access to hydrocarbon reserves, as well as maintaining stability in the world oil market. These strategic ties not only affect the internal energy security of the United States, but also allow them to significantly influence world economic development and maintain their global competitiveness. Thus, the Arabian monarchies deliberately incur significant costs to maintain additional idle oil production capacity in order to be able to keep prices within a certain corridor, increasing and decreasing their production to equalize supply and demand in the world market. The United States, in turn, is committing
77
itself to ensuring the legitimacy of the ruling regimes of the Arabian monarchies and maintaining security in the Gulf region.
Since the beginning of the oil boom in the 70s. Arabian investment in the United States plays an important role in bilateral economic relations. Such investments, according to various estimates, reach 1 trillion dollars, which is up to 60% of all foreign assets of the Arabian Six [4]. Recently, however, in connection with the deterioration of political relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia, the volume of such investments has begun to decline, which causes serious concerns among American economists and politicians. According to the estimates of various specialized publications, the countries of the Cooperation Council have withdrawn up to $400 billion from the American economy out of fears of a possible freeze of these funds by the US State Department on the basis of suspicions of financing international terrorism [4].
One of the factors that have a significant impact on the development of relations between the Arabian Six and the United States is military-technical cooperation. This area is an integral part of the Arabian-American strategic relationship. Thus, in exchange for maintaining stability in the world oil market, the states of the Cooperation Council will be able to purchase modern American weapons to ensure security and internal stability in the extremely troubled Middle East region. Washington is pursuing a dual goal in this way - maintaining security in countries with the world's largest oil fields and recycling significant amounts of petrodollars. Recently, the United States began to actively develop military-technical cooperation with the GCC member countries. Kuwait, for example, was declared the main ally of the United States among the non-NATO countries, which is obviously the result of growing tensions in Saudi-American relations after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, as a result of which the United States began to look for new ways to realize its geostrategic interests.
An important role in the development of trade and economic relations between the GCC and the United States is played by such a sphere as the financing of these relations. Until recently, this sphere of Arabian-American contacts was not developed, since the Arabian monarchies did not experience difficulties with financial resources due to the inflow of petrodollar funds. However, due to the presence of constant deficits in the balance of payments of the GCC countries since the early 1990s, they began to pay increased attention to lending to their foreign economic activities. The leading role in this area belongs to commercial banks. It is expected that the size of financing for Arab-American trade and economic relations will increase in the near future due to the beginning liberalization of the financial sector of the Cooperation Council states, as a result of which foreign banks gained access to the banking services market of these countries [5].
Another actively developing instrument of financing, which has received an additional impetus recently, is the attraction of funds with the help of specialized state funds of the states of the Arabian Six, which began to provide concessional financing for projects with foreign participation. It is also necessary to note the programs of economic compensation of the countries of the Cooperation Council, thanks to which they attract significant funds to high-tech projects. It seems that the role of financing foreign economic relations will play an increasing role in the development of trade and economic relations between the GCC and the United States, both through the liberalization of traditional mechanisms and through the development of fundamentally new ones, such as, for example, Islamic banks.
As for the prospects for the development of Arab-American trade and economic relations, they, as before, will largely be determined by the impact of the oil factor. Forecasts of the development of the world oil market, based on an analysis of both the share of oil in world energy consumption and the growth rate of the world economy, indicate that in the next 20 years oil will remain the key energy source in the world. In addition, it is unlikely that the GCC countries will lose their leading positions in ensuring the stability of the global oil market, despite the growing competition from other oil producing countries, especially Russia. The states of the Arabian Six control the situation on the world oil market by maintaining a significant amount of unused oil production capacity, which they use as a kind of «deterrent» [5].
The current situation in the world energy market has once again confirmed the desire and readiness of the GCC countries to ensure the stability of oil prices. Thus, in the conditions when world economic growth caused the commissioning of all free oil production capacities, which led to the emergence of
78
concerns about the emergence of prolonged crises of shortages of this raw material, only the states of the Cooperation Council confirmed their readiness to ensure the required level of idle oil production capacities. This is explained by the fact that, firstly, only the states of the Arabian Six have sufficient financial resources for this; secondly, due to the ease of oil production in the region, on the one hand, much less capital investment is required for the exploration of reserves and the organization of oil production than in other countries of the world, and on the other hand, there is a possibility of quick commissioning of such new capacities; and thirdly, only in the GCC states the oil industry is under the complete control of the state, which, unlike private companies, is ready to bear the costs of maintaining a significant amount of unused capacity. As a result, it seems that the decisive influence of the Arabian monarchies on the world oil market and strategic relations with the United States will continue in the future.
It is known that oil is one of the most important factors determining world politics. For this reason, the economic relations between the GCC and the United States have been highly dependent on international political processes throughout their history. This circumstance, on the one hand, contributed to the establishment and development of Arabian-American strategic relations, since the United States sought to have its partners in the person of the largest oil-producing countries, and on the other hand, it significantly hinders the development of economic relations in connection with the unstable political situation in the Gulf region.
It is necessary to note the growing negative role of exogenous factors of a political and social nature on the development of Arabian-American trade and economic relations. Thus, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 led to an escalation of tension in relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States, which immediately affected the trade and investment turnover between these countries. In addition, these events caused the global economic downturn, which led to a sharp decline in oil demand and, as a consequence, a decrease in the income of the Arabian monarchies. The US reaction, expressed in military campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq, has caused an increase in hostility towards the United States throughout the Arab and Muslim world as a whole. At the same time, the American so-called anti-terrorist campaign caused a jump in oil prices on the world oil market [5].
Summing up, we can say that the development of economic relations between the GCC and the United States will continue to be determined, first of all, by the oil factor, as well as by the pace of economic integration and liberalization within the GCC. World political processes can not only neutralize the influence of purely economic factors, but also significantly reduce the scale of Arab-American trade and economic ties in general. At the same time, taking into account the continuing importance of oil for the world economy, it seems that the strategic relationship between the GCC and the United States will continue in the short and medium term, transforming in the light of the modern realities of global economic and political processes.
References / Список литературы
1. United States Department of State. 2020. U.S. Relations With United Arab Emirates - United States Department Of State. [Electronic Resource]. URL: https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-united-arab-emirates/ (date of access: 30.12.2020).
2. Uae-embassy.org. 2020. UAE-US Relations | UAE Embassy In Washington, DC. [Electronic Resource]. URL: https://www.uae-embassy.org/uae-us-relations/ (date of access: 30.12.2020).
3. "About GCC." The Charter, gcc-sg.org/en-us/AboutGCC/Pages/Primarylaw.aspx.
4. "Statement of Extraordinary Summit of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC) and the United States of America." The White House, The United States Government. [Electronic Resource]. URL: www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-extraordinary-summit-cooperation-council-arab-states-gulf-gcc-united-states-america/ (date of access: 30.12.2020).
5. Looney R. Handbook of US-Middle East Relations / New York: Routledge, 2014. Pp. 377-391.
