Научная статья на тему 'Economic consequences of Pandemics: what we have learned from history'

Economic consequences of Pandemics: what we have learned from history Текст научной статьи по специальности «История и археология»

CC BY
177
15
i Надоели баннеры? Вы всегда можете отключить рекламу.
Журнал
Амберд
Область наук
Ключевые слова
COVID-19 / pandemic / epidemic / history / world economy / COVID-19 / пандемия / эпидемия / история / всемирная экономика

Аннотация научной статьи по истории и археологии, автор научной работы — Shushan Movsisyan

Pandemics are believed to change the course of history. They caused significant economic disruption, but sometimes resulted in income increase. Coronavirus outbreak first identified in China in December, 2019, is declared to be a pandemic in March, 2020. In what way it will change global economy and what lessons international community have learned from history? The thoughts of the author leads to the following: in what way it will change global economy and what lessons international community have learned from history?

i Надоели баннеры? Вы всегда можете отключить рекламу.
iНе можете найти то, что вам нужно? Попробуйте сервис подбора литературы.
i Надоели баннеры? Вы всегда можете отключить рекламу.

ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЕ ВОЗДЕЙСТВИЕ ЭПИДЕМИЙ: ЧЕМУ НАС НАУЧИЛА ИСТОРИЯ?

Эпидемии имеют историческое значение, часто также меняют ход истории. Они вызвали экономические потери, а иногда увеличивали доходы населения. Эпидемия, вспыхнувшая в Китае в декабре 2019 г., превратилась в глобальную пандемию в марте 2020 года. Как изменится глобальная экономика, и какие уроки извлекло мировое общество из истории? Рассуждения автора приводят к следующему: как изменится глобальная экономика, и какие уроки извлекло мировое общество из истории?

Текст научной работы на тему «Economic consequences of Pandemics: what we have learned from history»

Сп1_2шЬ ^n4UhU3ÜL

2014 p. uiluipsb[ t C^SC-b b ßbqmb^b[ шuщftpшbsnLPш: 201в p. t Lubgb[

C^ISC «Utpbpq» hbyiwqn-^Ш^ШЬ IibhyipnbnLif u^qpmú npubu Ipyiubp hbyiwqnyinq, fiuI 2018 p.-ftg шп шJuop' np-lybu ifinpâiMqbyi: Cbqpbw^ b hwtwhbqpbwi t 9 qftyiwiwb

CUUUÖUPWUbPh SLSbUUMUL

uan-bsnh^nKue.

KLQ t Uba Un^nPbSPbL ^USUPh^nKbC

<^^шршпЬр. Covid-19, huitJuiLluipuiIi,

huitjuióuipuill, LL/UISttfnLpjnLb, huitJui2friuiphuijftb ipbyibunLpjnLb

CuitJuióuipuiIibbpb rnbbgbi bb и/ш^^ш^шЬ Ь2ш-butlinLpjmb, hшбшfrl' ЬшЬ ipnfrib[ и|шstnLpJшb ßb-pшgfß: П-pшЬf шnш£шgpbl bb lpbsbuшl|шb In-pmuyibbp, bppbiÄt ti lJbóшgpbl pbш|jmpJшb Ь^ш-tSmyibbpß:

2019 p. ribliyibtpbpftb 3^bшusшbmJ рпЬЦш0 hшJш6шpш|ß 2020 p. 6шpsftb lbpшólbg qlnpшl и|шbq.bфшJ^ (hшtJшlшpшI|ft): hbju/bu ^фп^ф qin-рш1 ipbyibunLpjnLbß, b fîbj г).шubp t ршц^ и/шф^п/.-pjmbftg hшJш2^шphшJ^b hшbpmpJmbß:

СЬФЬшlift hшpgшц.pnLlЛlbpß hшbqmJ bb hbsbJш-Ipb. frbju/bu qlnpшl ipbyibunLpjnLbß, b fíb¿

г).шubp t ршц^ и|шstnLpJnLbfrg hшJш2^шphшJftb hшbpmpJmbß

ut

t' ц.|прш|шдтЛ2, hptphhph ФП^-•^шщ^шйп^пйс ф tn^^g umhrçômd hh qшpqшgdшh U mhmhuшtшh шб^ hhшpш4npnLрjnLhhhp, hut djrnu ^nq^g' шпш2шд^тЛ hnp dшpmшhpш4hphhp: UnLjh р^ш^ш^^ dшpmh 11-^h Unnq2шщшhnLрjшh hш-dш2^шphшJ^h tшqdшthpщnLßjnLhQ hшJmшpшphg tnpn-hшфpnLuh hшdш4шpшth dшuhh: hhшpth, ш2^шphh шhqшd ^t, np рш^^тй t hшdш4шpшth l^d hшdшбшpшth: Lhp^ ^шфбш^с, uшtшJh, gnijg t шш-[fiu, np hшdш2^шphшJ^h hшhpnLрjnLhQ щшmpшum ^tp

<шdш4шpшthhpQ Фп^[ hh Qh^gpQ:

Ршд^ шhnhLh dшpqtшJhh tnpmumhhphg, rç^hf mhmh-uшtшh ^шuhhp hh hшugphL, hut hpph^, np^h t[ mшp-op^^t t hh^rnd, hшhqhgphL phшt^^PJшh h^dnishhph U pшphthgmрJшh dшtшpqшth pшpÖpшgdшhQ:

Ump^nLpjmh ^msJrnpjmh m^hm-ömhp hmJmömpm^p «UL Jmh» ^n^n^. dmlsm^sb tp, npQ smpmö^b tp b^pm-u^mjmJ 1347-1352 pp.: «UL Jmhp» u^mhbg b^pn^mjh phm^mpjmh 2/3-p^hh: <mJm-ömpm^p u^u^b tp Uu^mjmJ: Pm^sb-phmjh smpmönqhbph mnhbshbph thh, npnhf Uuhmjhg b^pn^m thh hmubL mnLs-pmjhh hm^bph ^gngn^: XIV ^.mprnJ pdp2-^nLpjnLhp pmjL tp qmpqmgmö, hhh tL hmh-qbgpbg ^ömfmhm^ qnhbph:

«UL Jmhh» wpJwmw^wh wq^.bgni.pjni.h rnhbgm^ b^pn^mjh unghmL-shsbum^mh 4pm: <mJm6mpm^h m^mpshg hbmn ^bh^.mhh ^mgmö Jmp^mhg ^ö Jmuh ^jmhfh ^mjJmhhbpp pmpbLm^b-ghh': Lpmhf hmpusmgmh mbp ^.mnhmLn^ Jmhmgmöhbph rnhbg^möfhh: Pmgh mj^., mhnbLh p^n^ Jmp^mhg Jmhp b^pn^m-j ni.J hmhqbgpbg m2^msni.dh ^m^mump-^h, L hn^wsbpbpp ush^mö thh sb^h mwL qjm^mgh^bph 6h2Jmhh m pmpöpmg-hbL ^bpgh^^bphu m2^mrnm^mpÖQ: Cms ^msJmpmhhbp ^mpörnJ bh, np ^mpj mh dmhsm^sp' m2^msm^np ^m-um^mpqh hqnpmgJmJp, h^musbg $bn-^mLhq^ ^LmqJm^Q L ^m^hsmLhq^ ^bp-bLfhh:

U^hmqmhq^mömjhh L hpm^bu hm-Jm2^mphmjh^ hmJm^mpm^p ^msJm-pjmh 1918 p. pnh^mö qph^h tp (H1N1), npp hmjshh t «hu^mhm^mh qph^» mh^mhrnJn^: 9-ph^h mju hmJm^mpm^hg m^bLh 2ms Jmp^ Jmhmgm^, fmh Unm-2hh hmJm2^mphmjh^ ^msbpmq^ dm-Jmhm^: U^mphh phm^mpjmh 1/3-p^.p ^mpm^^bg, pus smppbp qhmhmsniJ-hbph' Jmhmgm^ 50-100 JLh Jmp^: hu-^mbm^mb qph^h mnmhähmhms^nLpjnL-hp Jmhmgrnpjmh ^ö ph^ tp bphsm-ump^hbph 2p2mhmJ, hh^p hmL bhpm^pmJ t m^bLh ^ö shsbum^mh mq^bgmpjmh,

fmh mjh ^b^fmJ, bpp Jmhmgrnpjmh Jm-^mp^m^p pmpöp t Lhhni-J smpbghbph 2p2mhmJ:

^ph^h smpmömJp ^mh^bLnL ^2ngm-nrn^bpp hJmh thh hbp^mjmJu ^hpmn-^nqhbphh. Öbnhmp^nLpjnLhhbpp thh, mpqbL^mJ thh hm^mfhbpp: <ms-^m^bu snidbghh ömnmjnLpjnLhhbph L dmJmhgh nLnpsh Öbnhmp^nLpjnLhhbpp, npnhf nihbgmh b^mJsh bp^hh2 ^nprnus-hbp: Uhm^ phqhbup, np öm^rnJ tp, ^b^m-shbph thh: U-2^msmdh mnh^mqh dmJmhm^m^npm^bu hmhqbg-pbg m2^msm^mpÖh pmpÖpmgJmh2: hu-^mhm^mh qph^h m^fh ph^m^ hmL bp-^mpmdmJ^bs mq^bgmpjmJp: 4mpm^-^mö öhn^hg öh^mö bpb^mh mhbp m^bLh gmöp ^nqhhsh^ mhm^mpjmhhbp L h^mq mnn^2 tp, hh^p shsbum^mh m^sh^^-pjmh ^pm mh^pm^mpöm^ smuhmJj m^-hbp mhg:

hu^mhm^mh qph^h shsbum^mh mq-^bgmpjmhh mum^muhpbL bh 2ms hb-smqnsn^hbp: Pmpnjh L S. HLpummjh qhmhmsJmJp, sh^h^ bp^ph 1 2h^h hm2-^n^ <LU-h L u^mnmJp h^mqbL bh hm-Jm^msmu^mhmpmp' 6 L 9,1 sn^nun^3: PnLnp ^b^fbpmJ, hu^mhm^mh qph^h shsbum^mh hbsLmhfhbph qhmhmsmJp pmp^ t, fmhh np hmJmömpm^p pnh^^bg Unm2hh hmJm2^mphmjhh ^msbpmq^ ^bp2hh 2p2mhmJ, L ^d^mp t smpmh2m-sbL ^msbpmq^ m qph^h hmugpmö shsbum^mh ^muhbpp:

Lmjh H1N1 qph^h bp^pnp^ hmJm^m-pm^p pnh^bg mp^bh 2009 p.: Um hnp bh-pmsbum^ tp L usmgm^ ^nqh qph^ mh-^mhmJp: fanqh qph^n^ ^mpm^^bg m2-^mphh phw^nLpjwh 24%-p: Lmjh smpm-ömJp hhJf ^mpöm^ hmJm^mpm^ hmjsm-pmpbLm hmJmp: hpm^mhmJ, ^nqh qph= ^hg Jmhmgmpjmh Jm^mp^m^p ^mq^L t

' What can the Black Death tell us about the global economic consequences of a pandemic? March 4, 2020, http:// theconversation.com/what-can-the-black-death-tell-us-about-the-global-economic-consequences-of-a-pandem-ic-132793

2 Th. Garrett, "Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic", 2007, p. 21, https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/ files/pdfs/community%20development/research%20reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf

3 R.Barro, J. Ursua, J. Weng, The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the Coronavirus's Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity, NBER Working Paper No. 26866

March 2020, https://www.nber.org/papers/w26866.pdf

ai o S

<

in ZD

ai

o ai o o

Q.

s

CO

<

I

o

Q.

O

a v e

2

10 zz>

■Zf .D a

ZD

IL <=

n

p

<=

c. <=

JT

0.02 %, wjuhhfh' 5 whqwd fh^, fwh ub-qnhwjhh qph^h qb^frnd (0,1 %): fabpUu, urn tp ^wm6w^D, np Unnq2w^whni.pjwh hwdw2^iwphwj|"ih twqdwtbpu|ni.pjni.tiD qwqpt.bg «tbq6» hwdwtwpwt hwjmw-pmpb[m, ^nnm^ghmjh, qbqwqnp6wtwh phqhbuh wnw2 ^24: t, np qb-

qwqnp6wtwh twqdwtbp^nLpjnLhhbpD hutwjwtwh qmdwp twumwtbghh: 2009 p. hwdw6wpwth qwqwphwtbmhh «Sw^-

$U™h» hwdw2^wphwjhh t.w6wnfD hw-uwt 3 dLpq U^L ^n[wph5: <wdw2^wp-hwjhh mhmbuni.pjni.hD, Dhqhwhrnp wn-dwdp, qqw[h tnpmumhbp nihbgwt., hh^D n^ wjhfwh hwdwtwpwth, npfwh ^ni.6w-^h hbmUwhfnt. tp: U^fuhtwjmd, npmbq 6wqb[ tp hwdwtwpwtD, 2009 p. qpnuw-2p2nLpjwh i^wuhbpD twq^ghh 5 dLpq U^L ^n[wp6: Smdbg qjnLqwmhmbunLpjnL-hD, ^ 2wpf bptphbpmd dwdwhwtwtn-pw^bu wpqbLt.bg ^nqh duh hbptpmdD: <wdw2^wphwjhh dwtwpqwtnid ^nqh qph^h i^wuhbpD qhwhwmtb bh 45-55 dLpq U^L ^nLwp7:

Mnpn^w^hp^uh wnw2hh pnhtmdD mb-qh t nihbgbL 2002-2003 pp.1 umwhw-nt. frwhp D^pwgfn^. ump 2h^wnwtwh hw-dw^mw^h2 (SARS) wht.whni.dD: Ujh hnLjh-^bu 6wqbL tp Qhhwumwhmd: 4wpw^D mwpw6t.bg dnm 30 bptpmd, uwtwjh 2wm twp6 dwdwhwtmd hhwpwtnp bqwt twh-^bL qpw mwpw6mdD: Cum mtw-

hbph' hwdw6wpwth Dhpwgfmd 30 bpt-pmd qpwhgtb t twpwth 8436 qb^f, dw-hwgw6hbph phtD 900-hg wtbLh t bqbL: 4wpwttw6hbph w^hw^6 fwhwtD qpwhgtb t Qhhwumwhmd U <nhtnhqni.d: Lbptwjhu tnpnhwthp^uwjhh hhtwhqm-pjmhhg mwppbpt.ni.d tp hpwhnt, np hhw-

pwtnp ^tp twpwttbL wjh tpnqhbphg, npnhf ^mhbhh w^mwhh2hbp: Uju pnhtnL-^g QhhwumwhD ^6 qwubp t fwqbL:

SARS-d twp6 tiwhf nihbgwt, U h hwjm btwt mhmbuwtwh hw^dwmwpwp twjnL-hrnpjwh ^wjdwhhbprnd: Uuhwtwh qwp-qwgdwh pwhth qhwhwmdwdp' wuhwtwh mwpw6w2p2whmd mhmbuwtwh ^wu-hbpD twq^ghh 18-60 dLpq U^L qnLwp, npD hwdwpdbf t swpw6w2p2whh <LU 0,6-2%-hh8: Qhhwumwhh mhmbumpjwh tpw qqwLh wqqbgmpjmh nihbgwt., pwjg fwhh np QhhwumwhD t2hn ^mhbp hwdw2^wphwjhh mhmbumpjwh ^2, tbp-2hhu h2whwtwLh ^wuhbp ^tpbg:

Upqbh ^wum t, np hnp mh^h tnpn-hwthp^uD ^np wqqbgmpjmh tpnqhh hwdw2^wphwjhh mhmbumpjwh tpw: ^h 2wpf qhmhwtwhhbp ^npSbL bh ^wpqbL tnpnhwthp^uh hwdrntrnprnth hhrnprn^np hbmUwhfhbpD: H-. Pwpnh, S. HLpumwh U S. 4bhqD, np^bu hnp mh^h tnpnhw-thpmuh hwdw^wpwth t.wmwqmjh ugb-hwp, qhmwptbL bh «hu^whwtwh qph^D» U btbL wjh bqpwhwhqdwh, np tnpnhw-thpmunt ^wjwhwt.npt.w6 mhmbuwtwh whtmdD hw^dwmbth tLhhh 2008-2009 pp. hwdw2^wphwjhh ^hhwhuwmhmbuw-twh 6qhwdw^ hbmUwhfhbph hbm9:

^bp twp6hfnt, Covid-19-h mhmbuwtwh wqqbgnLpjnihD mwppbp tLhhh hw-^npqhbphg, fwhh np jmpwfwh^jmp pnhD-tmd mbqh t mhbhmd hpbh phnpn2 hw-dwmbfummd, U wjuop ^hf mhbhf pnLn-pnthh wjl hpwtwhmpjmh: Covid-19-h m-hbhwLm t n^ ^wjh mhmbuwtwh, wjlU un-ghwLwtwh, hnqbpwhwtwh wqqbgmpjmh: M^n^th dwpqtwhg twpfwqh6D, w2^wph-DhtwLmdD, qpwhgnt, ^wjdwhwt,npt,w6'

4 J. Fox, Remember the Last Global Pandemic? Probably Not, 10 March, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ articles/2020-03-10/how-coronavirus-compares-with-2009-s-h1n1-in-spread-and-reaction

5 A.Frangoul, Counting the costs of a global epidemic, 5 Feb. 2014, https://www.cnbc.com/2014/02/05/counting-the-costs-of-a-global-epidemic.html

6 The global economy is woefully unprepared for biological threats. This is what we need to do, 05 Mar 2019, https:// www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/03/our-economy-is-woefully-underprepared-for-biological-threats/

7 A world at risk: annual report on global preparedness for health emergencies. World Health Organization; 2019, https://apps.who.int/gpmb/assets/annual_report/GPMB_annualreport_2019.pdf

8 K. Hopkins, Pandemics that changed the course of history, 12 Jul 2009, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/ jul/12/flu-pandemic-economic-impact

9 R.Barro, J. Ursua, J. Weng, The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the Coronavirus's Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity, NBER Working Paper No. 26866

March 2020, https://www.nber.org/papers/w26866.pdf

o

pnrnmhbp ^пйЬ^ш qpnuш2P2nLpjшh n|np-mp1 шп^шя^ hшJш4шpш^ ш^шр-mp: ^Öqrnbh qmp-

qшg^bL mb^ninq^hbp1 шщшhn4b|nL hb-

hbpp: Covid-19-p фnpÖmpJm^ t ^ши ^h-mbqpшд^nh ^nnijghbp^ hшJшp, npnhp

Йш^п^Ъд^ hшJш6шpш^ ^.bJ щшJ£шp^ фши^ш^ш^ U hшJш^шpq4шö JnmbдJшh

föb np^h шpшqnpbh hшJш2^шphш-j^h hш^pmpJm^p ш]и фnp-

Ömpjm^p, t ^[^ш^ш^ущ^и un-

(= q

T)

er

P s

CT p

CT

r -y

n

2.

3.

5.

"A world at risk: annual report on global preparedness for health emergencies". World Health Organization; 2019, https://apps.who. int/gpmb/assets/annual_report/GPMB_annu-alreport_2019.pdf

A. Frangoul, "Counting the costs of a global epidemic", 5 Feb. 2014, https://www.cnbc. com/2014/02/05/counting-the-costs-of-a-global-epidemic.html J. Fox, "Remember the Last Global Pandemic? Probably Not", 10 March, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti-cles/2020-03-10/how-coronavirus-compares-with-2009-s-h1n1-in-spread-and-reaction K. Hopkins, "Pandemics that changed the course of history", 12 Jul 2009, https://www. theguardian.com/world/2009/jul/12/flu-pan-demic-economic-impact R. Barro, J. Ursua, J. Weng, "The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the Coro-

navirus's Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity", NBER Working Paper No. 26866, March 2020, https://www.nber. org/papers/w26866.pdf

6. "The global economy is woefully unprepared for biological threats. This is what we need to do", 05 Mar 2019, https://www.weforum.org/ agenda/2019/03/our-economy-is-woefully-un-derprepared-for-biological-threats/

7. Th. Garrett, "Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic", 2007, p. 21, https:// www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/com-munity%20development/research%20reports/ pandemic_flu_report.pdf

8. "What can the Black Death tell us about the global economic consequences of a pandemic?" March 4, 2020, http://theconversation. com/what-can-the-black-death-tell-us-about-the-global-economic-consequences-of-a-pan-demic-132793

71 О

>

2

en m

Б

5

CT

Шушан МОВСИСЯН

Эксперт исследовательского центра «Амберд», АГЭУ

iНе можете найти то, что вам нужно? Попробуйте сервис подбора литературы.

ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЕ ВОЗДЕЙСТВИЕ ЭПИДЕМИЙ: ЧЕМУ НАС НАУЧИЛА ИСТОРИЯ?

Эпидемии имеют историческое значение, часто также меняют ход истории. Они вызвали экономические потери, а иногда увеличивали доходы населения.

Эпидемия, вспыхнувшая в Китае в декабре 2019 г., превратилась в глобальную пандемию в марте 2020 года. Как изменится глобальная экономика, и какие уроки извлекло мировое общество из истории? Рассуждения автора приводят к следующему: как изменится глобальная экономика, и какие уроки извлекло мировое общество из истории?

Ключевые слова: COVID-19, пандемия, эпидемия, история, всемирная экономика

Shushan MOVSISYAN

Expert at AMBERD Research Center, ASUE

ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF PANDEMICS: WHAT WE HAVE LEARNED FROM HISTORY

Pandemics are believed to change the course of history. They caused significant economic disruption, but sometimes resulted in income increase.

Coronavirus outbreak first identified in China in December, 2019, is declared to be a pandemic in March, 2020. In what way it will change global economy and what lessons international community have learned from history? The thoughts of the author leads to the following: in what way it will change global economy and what lessons international community have learned from history?

Keywords: COVID-19, pandemic, epidemic, history, world economy

i Надоели баннеры? Вы всегда можете отключить рекламу.