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19определить будущую долю рынка, которую новый продукт займет через определенное время. Для реализации данной математической модели клиент должен предоставить данные о планируемых параметрах дистрибуции и планируемом уровне известности марки. Однако здесь необходимо учитывать специфику кризисной нестабильной ситуации, которая значительно снижает точность результатов такого исследования [7].
В заключение статьи отметим, что организационная подготовка нового вида продукции в производственных подразделениях является весьма актуальной. Нами были рассмотрены возможные наиболее типичные промахи при разработке и выводе нового товара рынок, избежание которых значительно повышает эффективность реализации идеи нового товара.
Проведенная работа позволила выделить основные этапы процесса разработки и вывода нового товара на рынок, а так же выявить риски и ошибки при осуществлении проекта нового продукта.
СПИСОК ЛИТЕРАТУРЫ:
1. Макарова О.В., Гаспарян С.В. Стратегические аспекты развития сельскохозяйственных предприятий // Экономика и предпринимательство. 2016. № 11-3 (76-3). С. 808-811.
2. Матвеев Р. Как вывести на рынок новый продукт: 6 основных шагов //Журнал Контур-2015. [Электронный ресурс] URL: https://kontur.ru/articles/ 2713.
3. Калашников Г.М., Балян Э.В., Ларкин А.С. Актуальность бизнес-планирования для федеральных казенных учреждений в России // Конкурентоспособность в глобальном мире: экономика, наука, технологии. 2017. № 11 (58). С. 340-341.
4. Стратегический маркетинг. Маркетинг услуг. Управление брендами. Разработка нового товара или услуги: как избежать ошибок и рисков. -М.: Юнити, 2010. -56 с.
5. Калашников Г.М. Развитие предпринимательства в пенитенциарной системе с применением экономико-статистического моделирования // Вестник Тамбовского университета. Серия: Гуманитарные науки. 2008. № 3 (59). С. 72-76.
6. Буранова Е.А., Игнатьев А.И., Балян Э.В. Концепция бережливого производства и её влияние на экономическую безопасность производственного сектора в УИС // Экономика и предпринимательство. 2017. № 9-3 (86-3). С. 526-529.
7. Белова Т.Н. Экономика уголовно-исполнительной системы как объект прогнозирования с использованием математических моделей // Человек: преступление и наказание. 2016. № 2 (93). С. 102107.
ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL FORECAST OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
Shurda K.
Doctor of Economics, Senior Researcher Leading Researcher in Ukrainian Scientific Center of Ecology of Sea(UkrSCES)
Abstract
In the article methodological approaches and methods of forecasting the ecological-economic development of territories and regions are considered. The scheme of risk assessment by groups of indicators is presented. Particular attention is paid to determining of security level that corresponds to a certain state of society.
Keywords: economic development, criteria for socio-economic assessment, natural environment, nature exploitation, risk assessment, security level.
Modern ecological policy is, first of all, in the withdrawal from the crisis of the ecological situation of enterprises and territories, and in the development of a strategy for regional economic development, which is compatible with the preservation of the natural environment. This is the most important task, it requires decisions by the administration of large cities and industrial centers. Strengthening ecological security is to shift the focus on the branches of economy, that save nature and improve existing lines of economic activity on the basis of accounting and forecasting all possible ecological and social consequences [1].
Programs for improving the environment and rational nature exploitation, which are developed in many regions and cities, usually include a section of the analysis of the ecological situation necessary to identify and
rank the main ecological and socio-economic problems. However, there is no methodology for analyzing the ecological-economic status of industrialized territories and each region is forced to re-develop its system of ecological and socio-economic evaluation criteria [2].
Criteria for socio-economic assessment, which could serve to choose the direction of the ecological-economic development of the territory, are not distinctly defined at present. Quantitative assessment of technogenic influence is not always possible due to the lack of methods for determining certain parameters of environmental quality that are changing as a result of technogenic development.
At present, there are no single integrated socioeconomic criteria for technogenic impact, and the
methodology for such economic assessments is not sufficiently developed. Existing methodological approaches are reduced to comparing the characteristics of different types of pollution and their impact with the standardized indicators, with limiting effects on a separate elements of the ecosystem, while not taking into account the state of the environment in the impact zone, as well as social consequences [3]. This is due to the lack of development, and often incompatibility of a number indicators that characterize the economic and, most importantly, social and ecological consequences of the development the territories.
Some issues related to environmental safety and risk are not currently fully developed and have not been unambiguously presented [4]. The problem of determining the principal directions and concrete means for optimizing the ecological-economic efficiency of nature exploitation in the industrialized territories and regions becomes the most important in this connection.
The purpose of the research is to analyze the ecological-economic state of industrialized territories. For this, it is necessary to consider methodological approaches and methods for forecasting the ecological-economic development of territories and regions, such as multi-criteria environmental impact assessment, optimization of the level of safety.
Methodology for assessing ecological consequences of scenarios ecological-economic development of the region. The analysis of existing methodological approaches to ecological impact assessment and the forecast of ecological-economic development of industrially developed areas should include a review and critical analysis of domestic and foreign sources of information on the system of assessments technogenic impact on elements of the natural environment, as well as methodological approaches and methods for forecasting ecological-economic development of territories.
The increase in the technogenic load on natural environment and the related need to analyze the negative ecological consequences of the use individual technologies and their systems have led to the identification of studies evaluating engineering projects in terms of their impact on the environment in a relatively independent branch. In parallel, ecological expertise, in particular, the methodology for environmental impact assessment (EIA), has been formed since 1970s [5, 6].
At the assessment stage, costs and results are determined for the groups of consumers and the population that are somehow engaged in the projects foreseen for implementation, specification and comparison of trade-offs that agree on various alternatives are carried out.
Increase the level of scientific validity EIA allows the development and application of methods for assessing and managing ecological risk and safety. This includes not only assessing the risk of emergencies [7], but also the risk in the normal operation of the facility (the risk of negative impacts on ecosystems, human health). This direction is being intensively developed now.
Multi-criteria environmental impact assessment is a broader concept than ecological expertise. All three types of assessments: risk, technology and impact on
the nature environment are related. They are different forms of system analysis depending on what is its object: process (technological innovation), phenomenon (design of engineering facilities or technology) or problem situation (risk). Risk assessment is a key element in determining the level of safety.
The risk management strategy (individual, social, ecological) is based on the choice of the level of risk ranging from the minimum to the maximum permissible.
Based on the concept of risk, it is possible to characterize the security levels in any region based on such groups of indicators:
— assessment of the potential for emergency prevention;
— assessment of the damage;
— assessment of recovery potential.
The risk assessment scheme includes, first of all, the identification of the most serious sources of danger (risk factors) and their ranking, taking into account the stability of the system, based on:
— building risk maps;
— development of emergency scenarios and the determination of the stability thresholds the system;
— use of mathematical methods - simulation modeling;
— use of the methods of "idealized experiment".
The first group of indicators should reflect the
change in the share of the destabilizing factor, for example, of hazardous products, of physically worn-out funds, since any deterioration in the existing structure of the economy increases the risk of instability in natural, technogenic and social systems. The resulting indicators of this group are as follows:
• social - mortality, morbidity;
• ecological - deterioration of the quality the environment (pollution, deforestation) and increased environmental stress (exceeding the environmental assimilation potential, alienation of land);
• economic - loss of national wealth, forced additional costs of society.
The second group of indicators reflects the system of measures to minimize damage. It includes indicators that characterize the ratio of expenditures aimed at the prevention of catastrophes, to the aggregate value of the estimated losses and compensation costs; the change in the share of preventive and compensatory expenditures in the total amount of expenses for emergency management.
The analysis of the influence modern production on the state of the natural environment and existing methods of its assessment shows that the most common methods for determining the influence of production processes on the environment are based on natural indicators. This is the concentration of harmful impurities in the environments and the mass of harmful substances that fall into the natural environment during the year. The degree of their compliance with the norms (MPC, MPI, MPD, etc.) is assessed.
Quantitative estimates can be integers or have the form of integrated load indicators (for example, pollution indices). Life expectancy is one of the acceptable criteria for optimizing the level of safety. This criterion is indicative, because it is the expected lifespan that is affected by technogenic and natural processes. Some research prove the inexpediency of a single generalizing ecological-economic indicator for assessing the consequences of nature exploitation [8].
As an economic indicator of the assessment the impact a production facility on the natural environment, a quantitative characteristic of economic damage (as a result of pollution) is often used.
The parameter "stability" is given great importance in characterizing any technogenic system. Stability is understood as the ability to preserve the output parameters "human-nature". The notion of "stability" serves as a criterion for local ecological shifts and for assessing extreme situations, and also determines the conditions for the violation of the ecological balance in natural-technogenic systems.
To conduct an analysis of the establishment an appropriate and acceptable level of safety and risk for society, there is a need for a multi-criteria analysis of conditions and ways of sustainable development. As criteria for sustainable development and safety, such parameters are usually perceived:
• gross national product (GNP);
• the quality of life;
• human health.
The search for effective solutions is carried out taking into account the costs of increasing the reliability and failure-free of technical systems and the quality of products, time factor and social effects. The essence of the method consists in comparing and analyzing two quantities: the costs of ensuring reliability and failure-free, and economic and other damage in value.
The level of security that corresponds to this or that state of society, its scientific-technical and economic capabilities, has a stochastic nature and is determined by a number of random phenomena. In general, it is characterized by:
— the probability of occurrence technogenic accidents, catastrophes, dangerous natural phenomena and possible damage during these events;
— degree of negative impact on humans and the natural environment of technogenic and natural processes;
— probability of overgrowing the ecological situation in a crisis and catastrophic.
The above-mentioned possible characteristics, in accordance with the accepted ideas, in fact, reflect the risk of occurrence certain events: in the first case - the risk of technogenic accidents, disasters and dangerous natural phenomena, in the second - the risk of deterioration human health, negative changes in the environment and so on not extreme conditions, in the latter -the risk of an emergency situation an ecological character.
Consider the methods for ecological assessment of the consequences technogenic impact loads on
the nature environment for the region. The proposed methodology and a system of socio-economic criteria are intended for the economic justification of the options for sustainable ecological-economic development of the region with:
— engineering and selection of design options for industrial, agricultural and transportation complexes;
— determining the order of construction and arrangement of these facilities;
— economic justification for achieving the normative quality of the environment;
— estimation of the economic effectiveness the activities carried out.
The methodology is based on the following principles of economic justification for the development economy in the region:
• compliance with the regulatory requirements for the quality of the environment, meeting the interests of public health and the protection of the natural environment, taking into account the long-term changes caused by the development of production;
• obtaining the maximum economic benefit from improving the state of the natural environment.
The measure of achievement specified purposes is assessed by indicators of social and economic results of ongoing activities. The ecological result is to reduce the negative impact on the environment of various factors and improve the state of the natural environment. The socio-economic result is to ensure the quality of the population's living: improving the health of the population; reduction of morbidity; an increase in life expectancy and activity; improvement of working and rest conditions; maintenance of ecological balance, including conservation of the genetic fund; preservation of aesthetic value of natural and anthropogenic landscapes, landmarks of natural and protected areas; save savings and preventing losses.
Consider the system of economic criteria that determine the choice of directions ecological-economic development of the region.
The economic justification for choosing the directions ecological-economic development of the region is expedient to be carried out by comparing the economic results of the application various technological options and investment projects with the expenses necessary to implement these activities. When assessing the effectiveness of nature protection expenditures, taking into account additional investments in the form of a part the expenses organizing ecological safety, it is necessary to determine what criteria will be adopted. Two criteria are taken as the main ones: human health and the quality of the natural environment.
Methods of socio-economic assessment the directions development of industry, agriculture, transport and optimal investment decisions should be based on a combination of a well-known method analyzing economic efficiency, an unconventional "expenses/profits" analysis and an ecologically acceptable risk assessment.
In general terms, the formalized expression of the "expenses/profits" method can be interpreted to select
investment project options taking into account the ecological component as follows:
B = V - (P + X + Y), (1)
where B - the net profit;
V - the general profit (including the profit from prevention of damage);
P - capital expenditures, transportation costs and maintenance;
X - expenses for maintenance of the chosen level ecological safety;
Y - expenses related to the real (residual) loss (including damage, associated with premature death or disease of people due to environmental pollution and damage to other elements of the natural environment).
The economic result (net profit) from carrying out nature protection activities is the provision of these measures:
• in the sphere of material production - an increase in the volume of net output or profit;
• in the non-production sphere - saving costs on execution of works and provision of services;
• in the social sphere - reducing morbidity and expenses related to loss of net output, reducing payments from the social insurance fund and treatment costs.
The general profit V is the sum of the following values:
V = Va + Vd, (2)
where Va - the increment in the economic monetary assessment of natural resources, which are preserved (or are being improved) through the implementation of activities to protect natural resources;
Vd - prevention of economic damage from environmental pollution, that is a profit, arising from the reduction of environmental pollution.
Determining the level of acceptable safety and risk is a complex task that requires a scientific analysis of economic, social, ecological, demographic and other factors. To balance the priorities of the ecological and economic nature, we introduce the category of socio-acceptable risk, which determines the level of risk that guarantees ecological safety.
The concept of socio-acceptable risk as a means of finding a balance between strategies for economic and ecological development has become widespread in the industrialized countries. It is supposed that with the help of this concept one can answer the question, what level of risk guarantees ecological safety. The accepted level of ecological risk depends on the profits that the population receives when the risk increases due to an rising of the level socio-economic well-being and what costs are required to ensure that the level of ecological risk does not exceed the level of socio-acceptable risk.
The methods of analysis and risk assessment relate mainly to two large classes:
1) methods based on the theory of operations research [9];
2) methods based on decision theory [10].
In practice, in most cases, risk analysis methods with possible "input", analysis of the decision tree, game theory are used. This is primarily due to the desire, as far as possible, to formalize the risk analysis
procedure, which would allow the use of mathematical modeling methods.
However, the use of modeling methods is possible only in the following cases:
— a large number of observations of risk situations and the availability of relevant information on costs, consequences and frequency of recurring events;
— the existence of systems with already known patterns of development, which will identify the degree of risk through an assessment of the likelihood of the expected consequences of a decision.
In most real situations involving risk, a very subjective risk assessment is obtained as a result of applying analytical (group or individual) expert assessments.
An ecological risk assessment is a scientific study in which facts and a scientific forecast are used to assess the potential harmful impact on the environment. Risk management is a decision-making process that takes into account the ecological risk assessment, as well as technological and economic opportunities for its prevention.
The main sources of technogenic ecological risk are usually:
• constant emissions of industrial and other economic objects of harmful substances into the atmosphere, water bodies and soil;
• accidental emissions of these facilities;
• transport accidents during transportation and storage of hazardous substances and materials;
• dangerous natural phenomena (earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, volcanic eruptions, accompanied by technogenic phenomena);
• agricultural activities related to the use of fertilizers, insecticides, herbicides;
• urbanization and its consequences for changing the state of the environment.
In quantitative assessing the level of risk for a given area, it is considered expedient to conduct the following procedures:
— identification and accounting of sources of harmful substances;
— allocation of priority sources and determination of risk values, based on possible, abstract and actual damage to human health and the quality of the natural environment;
— multifactor system analysis of hazardous objects, their ranking by the criterion of risk and the development of territorial and regional risk maps.
Under normal functioning of hazardous objects, their technogenic impact is associated with regulated emissions into the atmosphere, discharges into reservoirs and soil contamination by various chemical, radioactive and biological active substances.
It should be noted that evaluations of strategies are usually probable. For decision-making in conditions of risk and formalized analysis of these decisions, the practice of Western countries uses the theory of risk quite actively.
In view of such studies, a procedure has been developed for analyzing risk factors and assessing the risk level of nature-protection projects, which includes the main issues of the final procedure block; grouping projects by degree of risk; comparison and selection of projects taking into account the possibilities of their organizational-economic support. The choice of projects by the degree of risk should be combined with an analysis of possible options for organizational-economic support for innovative solutions.
According to modern concepts, the risk is usually interpreted as a likely measure of the occurrence of technogenic or natural phenomena, accompanied by the formation and operation of harmful factors and caused at the same time social, economic, ecological, and in some cases, aesthetic damage. In determining the level of risk, its value in the general case can be represented in the form of product three components: R = Ri R2 R3, (3)
where R - the level of risk, that is, the probability of causing certain damage to a people and the environment;
Ri - probability (in retrospect - frequency) of the occurrence an event or phenomenon that causes the formation and operation of harmful factors;
R2 - the probability of forming certain levels of physical fields, shock loads, fields of concentrations of harmful substances in various environments and their dose loads that affect people and other objects of the biosphere;
R3 - probability that the above-mentioned levels of fields and loads will lead to a certain damage.
The probability of an accident or other dangerous event R is in many cases considered and analyzed separately and Ri is not taken into account when assessing the overall level of risk. In this case, a simplified formula is used to calculate the level of risk: R = R2 R3, (4)
Such a scheme of calculations is justified by the fact that the objects are operated normally, and the events causing the emergence of hazards are emissions and discharges of products containing harmful substances. The periodicity and volume of these emissions and discharges of products, as well as the levels of physical fields (electromagnetic, acoustic, etc.), which adversely affect wildlife objects, are of a deterministic nature. Therefore the value of R in this case can be taken equal to unity. Thus, for the conditions of normal functioning of objects, the last formula is valid.
Based on the foregoing, it can be concluded that the quantitative measure of risk can be expressed not only as a probabilistic value. It should be noted that sometimes a risk is interpreted as a mathematical expectation of damage arising from accidents, catastrophes and dangerous natural phenomena. In this case,
the risk is calculated as the product of the event's probability by the degree of its severity, expressed as the damage to one or another kind.
It should also be borne in mind that the risk assessment using mathematical expectation is conditional. According to this estimate, it is conventionally considered that the magnitude of the damage has a deterministic meaning, its probabilistic nature is not taken into account.
The resulted interpretation of risk finds practical application. However, the definition of the level of risk as a probability category presented in this article is more convenient and acceptable for solving a wide range of scientific and practical problems, especially those relating to the overall assessment of the level of safety.
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