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11. Usmanov R. Kh. Konfliktogennye faktory i novye vyzovy etnopoliticheskoy stabilnosti yuzhnykli regionov Rossii i Prikaspiya [The conflict factor and the new challenges of ethno-political stability in southern Russia and the Caspian], Kaspiyskiy region: politika, ekonomika, kultura [The Caspian Region: Politics, Economics, Culture], 2013, no. 3 (36), pp. 190.
The Caspian Region: Politics, Economics, Culture.
2015. N (42). Pp. 233-242.
A. Khazanov,
D.Sc. (Hist.), Institute of Oriental Studies EASTERN POLICY OF RUSSIA IN THE LATE 20 -EARLY 21 CENTURIES
Global bi-polar structure of international relations gave way to unipolar after the "Cold War" and the collapse of the USSR. The United
States, one of the two superpowers, that were the basis of this structure from 1945 to 1991, have retained their position and began to play a decisive role in the international arena. Russia has been forced to reckon with this factor. In addition, Russia is in a deep and protracted political and economic crisis.
Russian industrial economy has been almost completely destroyed by the beginning of the 1990s, unable to adapt to new, primarily financial and political, conditions of the reproduction. Russia's GDP was only $330 billion in middle of the 1990s, which was two times less GNP of Canada and was comparable with the level of GDP of Hong Kong, Taiwan and Turkey.
Taking into account the above facts, Foreign Policy of Russia should have been planned in accordance with the limited financial and economic capabilities, based on a thorough analysis of global and regional international relations. According to the concept of James Rosenau, five factors playdecisive role in shaping foreign policy: personality, status, government, society and international system.
The personal factor has always played an extremely important role in the foreign policy of the USSR (Russia). General Secretary of the CPSU, Gorbachev put forward the concept of the new thinking, the essence of which was that the Soviet Union renounced the confrontation with the United States. Up to the end of 1993 Moscow's foreign policy was characterized by the pro-Western orientation, which was due to expectations of assistance from the United States and its allies, and hopes for Russia's integration into the West political and economic structures. The personification of the pro-Western course in Moscow in those years was then Foreign Minister Kozyrev.
The Russian government has been focused exclusively on the West without taking into account Asia and Africa. However, it soon became apparent that the West is not going to take Russia as an equal in
their political, economic and military structures. Russia has not found allies in the West and lost old contacts in the East. Supporters of the pro-Western foreign policy, led by Kozyrev, lost their influence in the Kremlin finally .
In January 1996, Yevgeny Primakov, a prominent scientist-orientalist, academician, was appointed the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. He declined one-sided and the pro-Western foreign policy and made it more balanced. Primakov expressed his negative attitude to the plans of NATO expansion during a press conference on February 10, 1996 in Helsinki.
Some time later, in Moscow, he emphasized in an interview on March 6, 1996, that Russia's foreign policy was in a more active, effective protection of interests. He also noted that some power was going to dominate, referring to the United States. Russia would be neither enemy nor close ally of the West, and had to seek civilized partnership, based on equality, protecting its own interests .
These statements indicated the new emphasis in the foreign policy of Russia, about the intentions of the new minister to restore the international dignity of Russia. The United States' ambitions were to be the only force in the region that was capable, according to Brzezinski, "bear the burden of responsibility for stability and peace," to become a new political reality in the Middle East at the turn of the XXI century. The evidence is not only numerous statements by official actors from Washington regarding the alleged "vital interests" of the US in the Middle East and, in particular, in the Persian Gulf, but also the permanent presence of the U.S. and NATO in the region, its transformation into "the U.S. military protected zone" after the U.S. and NATO war against Iraq in 1991, according to the same Brzezinski. Numerous opportunities and risks for Russia were opened in the Middle East after the end of the "cold war." Moscow did everything possible,
seeking to expand its role in the region and has achieved some success in certain ways.
Thus, the process of normalization of relations between Russia and Israel was completed with the restoration of diplomatic relations in October 1991. They were suspended in 1967, and so it was a serious mistake of the Soviet leadership, because Israel losses were insignificant, and the Soviet Union interests suffered considerably, as the latter have been deprived of access to one of the parties to the Middle East conflict for many years. In addition, anti-Israeli course has resonated inside the Soviet Union quite noticeably, becoming one of the causes of mass emigration of Jews and making the Arab-Israeli problem in some degree of "internal problem" of the USSR.
Russia has its own geopolitical interests in the Middle East and found the determination to pursue a policy of returning to this important region and to build relations with these countries without any ideological layers in accordance with the realities of the modern world.
Callers and inconsiderate actions of the U.S. and NATO, aimed at establishing the world domination of Washington, put Russia in the face of challenges and threats in Europe, CIS and the Middle East. The events in Iraq (War of 1991 and 2003), Iran and Afghanistan (the invasion of NATO troops in 2001), the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001 are examples. Russia has faced real threats, related to the spread of Islamic terrorism and extremism (two wars in Chechnya, terrorist attacks in Moscow, Beslan, etc.), with the problems of drug trafficking and refugees.
President Putin said in the interview with "Paris Match" in June 2000: "Today we are witnessing the creation of an extremist international along the so-called arc of instability stretching from the Philippines to Kosovo. That is very dangerous, especially for Europe, because it has a large Muslim population. ...the International Islamic
Front, has as its goal to create an Islamic Caliphate, an Islamic United States, to include several countries and some former Soviet republics in Central Asia which you have mentioned and parts of the modern territory of the Russian Federation. ...Russia is on the frontline in the fight against international terrorism. "The great danger lies in the possibility that external sponsors, such as Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, can actively promote and support the extremist Muslim forces in Russia."
The Russian Federation policy in the Middle East has been greatly intensified after the appointment of Primakov as foreign minister. Primakov tried to assume the role of mediator between Israel, Lebanese militants and Syria, when the new Lebanese crisis erupted. He used it for strengthening relations of Russia and France with the Arab world, and though his mission has failed. Moscow believed, that Netanyahu braked the Madrid peace process to the point, when serious tensions between Israel and the Arabs and between Washington and Arabs appeared.
The West refused to consider Russia as a full participant in the Middle East peace process. This position remained a risk to maintain a high degree of regional tensions. The position of Russia enjoyed the support of Syria, Iraq and PLO leader Yasser Arafat. They feared that they would lose a reliable source to counter pressure from Washington and Jerusalem without Moscow's participation.
At the same time, Russia's policy in the Middle East irritated the West and Israel. Russian diplomacy has sought to maintain a balance, developing relations equally with the two polar forces of the Middle East - the Arab world and Israel. Russia has significant potential in resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict. It could contribute by becoming the co-chairs with the United States at the peace conference, and
participating in the multilateral negotiations, where the issues of disarmament, security, the environment in the region were discussed.
July 10, 2000, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov presented the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation, which said that Russia would seek stabilization of the situation in the Middle East, including the Persian Gulf and North Africa, taking into account the impact of the situation in the region on the situation in the world. A priority for Russia in the context announced recovery and strengthening of the position, especially economic ones, in this rich and important area of the world 8.
Russia has clearly indicated its position during the war of the US and Britain against Iraq in 2003, joining France and Germany in the criticism of the aggressive policy of the US. Moscow hinted that it could veto in the UN, but it decided to avoid a sharp confrontation with the United States in reality. Therefore, when the March 20, 2003 the United States and Britain invaded Iraq without UN approval, Russian President Putin has officially criticized the invasion as a violation of international law and the UN Charter, but unofficially made it clear that Russia would not use the veto in the UN.
Special mention should be on the relations between Russia and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
One of the major projects of economic cooperation of Russia with the countries of Asia is the construction of a nuclear power plant in Bushehr (Iran) in accordance with the Russian-Iranian agreement dated August 25, 1992. In recent years, the Western press is full of reports that Iran has been creating nuclear bomb. This issue is discussed by the Russian and US diplomats in Moscow . Russia has requested documentary evidence, which the Americans were not able to present. IAEA inspectors checked the appropriate Iranian objects thoroughly, but also did not find any evidence. Iran fulfills its obligations in the
area of non-production and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. The Iranian issue is constantly discussed in the Russian-American dialogue. Russia cooperates with Iran in all areas, except relating to the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems.
U.S. follow the Iran's external relations carefully, expressing its displeasure over some Iranian contacts. Russia has no information on the existence of Iran's national program for the creation of these weapons. Iran denies the existence of such a program. It is a party to a treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons. It is also open for IAEA inspection .
The main directions of trade and economic cooperation between Russia and Iran is energy, including nuclear power as well as oil and gas, chemical industry, transport.
In December 1991 the creation of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was proclaimed. Many believed that the CIS was not a viable education initially. Unlike the EU, the CIS countries are in the vast Eurasian space, at different levels of socio-cultural development, have different cultures and values, and, particularly, different political regimes. Reasons for joining the CIS were all different, too.
However, the integration process began to gain momentum in the early 1990s, despite the existence of a large number of destabilizing factors. Summit of the CIS leaders was held in Bishkek on September 9, 1992. The meeting proved that active and productive search of ways to solve internal problems were not based on the confrontation, but on the balance of national interests of each one. The meeting in Bishkek demonstrated the increased goodwill and understanding when discussing complex controversial issues.
The future of the planet depends largely on the prevailing situation in Asia. The nuclear powers are situated in the neighborhood in this vast region, where two-thirds of the world's arsenals of conventional weapons are concentrated. From 10 to 12 million people are in the military. Half a million army of one superpower has appeared several times in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, the other superpower has introduced many thousands army to Mongolia and Afghanistan. This confrontation has led to the the creation of an extensive military infrastructure.
Despite promises of Washington, the latest war in Iraq has not made the world safer, has not helped to eliminate terrorism and to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In contrast, the Palestinian settlement grasped collapse, the war on terrorism was unsuccessful. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, terrorist groups are now more than 3 years ago in the world.
The Pentagon released a report that Russian intelligence allegedly passed on information about Hussein US troop movements during the operation "Shock and Awe" in March 2003.
Russia's position on Iran and the invitation of Hamas leaders to Moscow exposed to extremely sharp criticism in Washington. The Israeli leadership has acceded to this criticism.
Common Interests as the Basis
of Russian-Islamic Convergence
The beginning of the present stage of strengthening Russia's relations with the Muslim countries is associated with a ten-day visit of the President of Russia in the countries of South East and Central Asia in August 2003, and Putin's subsequent participation in the session of the organization "Islamic Conference" in Malaysia in October of the same year. Cooperation of Russia with the Muslim countries is
motivated by common goals of global and regional issues, as well as the interest of each party in mutual support and partnership in dealing with their own foreign and domestic tasks. The fight against terrorism and the dialogue between civilizations are allocated among other important issues at the global level for Russia and member countries of OIC. The threat of terrorism is relevant for Russia, and for the Muslim countries themselves, which have become the scene of bloody terrorist attacks. At the beginning of the twenty-first century, Russian President Vladimir Putin initiated political and economic return of Russia to the Middle East. As a result, comprehensive arms markets in Algeria, Syria, Iran have been opened. Moreover, a large proportion of the interest comes from the energy companies (Gazprom, Lukoil, Rosneft), which were also aimed at expanding operations in the Middle East closely with the state and its support. Moreover, tough competition of large TNCs have been carried for access to energy resources in the region. Putin's Middle East policy during his second term should be considered successful as a whole.
The main directions of the Middle East policy of Russia in the first decade of the twenty-first century are:
1. Increasing cooperation in the military-technical sphere.
2. Emphasis on protecting the interests of Russian companies (primarily fuel and energy market of the Middle East).
3. Strengthening of its economic and cultural presence in Palestine, Syria, Lebanon and Egypt.
Moscow policy in the Greater Middle East moves from strategy to tactics.It returns to the region in the political, economic and humanitarian sense. At the same time, Russia does not play quite an active role in the Mideast peace process, despite the rich historical experience with the countries of the Middle East. The U.S. and the EU play a key mediating role in the Middle East so far, and the process
of Israeli-Palestinian peace dialogue has been deadlocked. At the present time any foreign policy strategy should include public diplomacy, that becomes an integral part of the implementation of the long-term foreign policy. Ways of formation of Russian public diplomacy strategy have to become the subject of extensive discussions with experts, analytical centers, representatives of business, nongovernmental organizations, the mass information.
The support and confidence of the Arab-Muslim region are extremely important because of its enormous influence, exerted on Russian Muslims. Religious radicalism and separatism in the Caucasus are sponsored by organizations, operating in the territory of a number of states in the Middle East. Now the problem of Wahhabism has become urgent in the Volga region.
Culture could become one of the most effective tools of the Russian public diplomacy in the Middle East. Russia should expand image policy by investing in long-term educational and cultural programs. The youth has grown over the last 20 years in the Middle East, which is focused more on the Western countries, rather than Russia. It is necessary to expand the system of scholarships and student exchange programs, available to everyone.
This approach should first be applied to Syria, because it is the only country in the region that has remained truly allied relations with Russia so far. The continued success of promoting a positive image of our country in the Middle East will depend on how Russia is perceived in Syria.
Thus, there is the almost complete absence of the mechanisms of public diplomacy, and Russia is greatly inferior to the influence of European countries as well as China in this sphere, which will inevitably lead to a weakening of its positions in all other spheres. In this regard, the need arises in developing a strategy of public
diplomacy, which should be based on the historical component of the
relations and cooperation in the military-technical sphere.
* * *
The Central Asian countries are crucial for Russia, which is determined by the following factors:
- The presence of significant reserves of natural resources in their territory.
- Reasons of national security, because it is from the south come the main threat to Russia.
The priority partner of Russia in Central Asia is exactly Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan was the first CIS country, concluded with Russia Treaty on "Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance" in May 1992. Kazakhstan and Russia are the guarantors of stability in the Central Asian region, interact actively in the political sphere, adhering to the international agenda on key issues and applying great efforts for the revitalization of regional organizations such as CIS, SCO and CSTO.
Law enforcement agencies and security services of Russia and Kazakhstan are successfully cooperating with each other in the fight against terrorism and drug trafficking. Russia is the main partner in foreign trade of Kazakhstan and can not do without natural resources of Kazakhstan. Both countries are closely related to defense industry. Finally, the share of Russian-speaking population in Kazakhstan is still great.
Relations between Russia and Uzbekistan undergo periods of cooling and warming. This is due to the absence of a common border that allows Uzbekistan to pursue a policy of balancing between the West and Russia. The main task of Russia is to engage Uzbekistan
in joint trade and economic, military, scientific and technical projects in order to eliminate "Western aspirations" of Tashkent.
Military and political cooperation between Russia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan has a high degree of development. Russian military base are located in the territory of two Central Asian republics.
Tajikistan is still the southern outpost of Russia in the CIS. It is important for Russia in the fight against the proliferation of radical Islam and eliminating the supply of drugs from Afghanistan, and Tajikistan needs economic assistance and political support of Russia on the world stage. But recently Tajikistan started to move closer to Iran, which worsened relations with Russia. Moscow should actively involve the Central Asian republic into the SCO, CSTO and CIS, as well as to deepen bilateral cooperation in the economic sphere, in order to prevent output of Tajikistan from the orbit of Russian influence .
It is important to strengthen Russia's military presence in Kyrgyzstan. Agreements have been reached on the establishment of mobile military units within the CSTO to respond quickly to potential threats, and that is very important in the strategic plan. Russian-Kyrgyz relations complicate internal political conflicts also resulting from the "Tulip Revolution", which broken out with the filing of the West. In addition, Russia is concerned about the activities of extremist group "Hizb ut-Tahrir", seeking to seize power in Kyrgyzstan. Thus, Russia can maintain close ties with Kyrgyzstan only by rendering the economic and political support, as well as through joint confronting the threat posed by radical Islamic groups.
The most complex relationships in the region have been established between Russia and Turkmenistan. During the presidency of Saparmurat Niyazov, the country has shown little interest in a strong partnership with Russia. The situation changed when Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov came to power, but not much. Ashgabat is
a competitor of Moscow in the natural gas market, and the fight for access to Turkmen gas (unfolded between the West ("Nabucco") and Russia (Caspian gas pipeline)) follows from the situation. Russia can achieve a thaw in relations with Turkmenistan and decrease the chances of success of the West, if it will make concessions in the issue of gas prices.
There are problems that insufficient attention is paid to the Central Asian direction. The most important task for Russia is to develop effective cooperative security in the region in view of its national interests, as well as the development of general scientific and theoretical basis of national security and docking of the regional system with the corresponding systems of neighboring countries. Strengthening security without considering the interests of neighbors can lead to instability and mutual distrust.
The internal processes of renewal of the political elites in the republics of Central Asia require special attention. While Russia has opportunities to support pro-Russian sentiments in the elite areas of public and political life of the countries of Central Asia. Until recently, the Central Asian leaders felt their close to Moscow in personal contacts, cultural, historical, political, geopolitical and economic ties.
But now a new generation of politicians is growing, new elites are formed in the Central Asia, which are not connected with the historical memory of the former Soviet space. The Russian language is losing its importance. Therefore it is extremely important for Russia not only to maintain the presence of the business, but also increase cultural expansion in the region.
In recent years, bilateral cooperation is limited to inter-state relations in the raw material orientation, despite the obvious intensification of Russian-Central Asian cooperation in the oil and gas sector. The prevalence of narrowly focused interests of Russia and
several Central Asian countries prevents the establishment of mutually beneficial multilateral cooperation.
At the same time, countries in the region seek to reduce its dependence on Russia for export of hydrocarbons and look for alternative ways to transport oil and gas to the world market. At this time, heads of Central Asian regimes, and consequently their countries have attempted to consolidate their efforts in the framework of regional projects with Russia, and under her leadership,in spite of the sharp disagreements and contradictions, and in some cases even personal dislike for each other.
"Arab Spring" and the Position of Russia
Obviously, the "Arab Spring" has significant implications for all humankind. Hence, the current boom of interest in these events. A historian - orientalist shall answer five questions: what, where, when, how and why? The main one is the question "why?". Answer to that question turns any historical work in an analytical study.
So the first question is: what are the reasons of the revolutionary events in the Arab world? There are three points of view on this issue.
The first point of view for explaining this situation is a conspiracy theory. Of course, it is absolutely unsuitable for explaining the "Arab Spring." The second one is that the socio-economic factors underlie the Arab revolutions. A third view is that the current Arab Spring is the development of Islamist movements, the continuation of the Islamic revolution in Iran, events in Algeria in the 1990s of the last century, the victory of Hamas in the Palestinian elections. Supporters of this view argue that the entire Middle East region will follow the path of Iran.
Probably all three of these factors are not paramount, but secondary importance. The demographic factor is crucial. The
peculiarity of the Arab countries is that the majority of their population (unlike Europe) are young people.
Previously, the class structures, political parties, armies, clergy of those countries were purpose of studying, but the most important factor - the generational structure of the population - has been overlooked. There is the fourth power, which organize themselves neither in batches, nor in mosques but on the Internet - it is the educated youth. The special services monitored the situation in parties and mosques, while young people have been communicating with each other through "Facebook" and "Twitter".
Of course, the socio-economic factors have played a huge role. A great many unresolved social problems have accumulated: a huge unemployment, poverty, disease and huge class differentiation and polarization of society.
In Libya, unemployed is 30% of the working population, although the average annual income per capita exceeds $ 13 thousand. In Algeria, the unemployment rate is 12% on average, but there are areas where it is higher, especially among young people (50%) that provokes emigration among young people, including illegal, in the EU countries.
Cairo is incredibly overpopulated. The housing stock is designed for 3 million people only, and its population has exceeded 8 million. Housing is expensive, and its price is increasing continuously. Many homeless people spend the night right on the sidewalks, especially a lot of people are placed near the mosque. Hundreds of thousands of Egyptians have left for other Arab countries in search of work for their families, despairing to find a job at home.
In Lebanon, it is incredibly difficult to get a job, especially for people of intellectual professions. It is necessary to pass a special exam to get a good place. Therefore, multimillion Lebanese diaspora lives in
other countries. As for Syria, there is a popular joke that a young person gets two diplomas after graduation: an expert and an unemployed. At the same time, unemployment benefits are not available.
Totalitarian eastern rulers believe that population is a consumable item, which is worthless. Constant high praises and flattery convince these totalitarian rulers in their own genius and uniqueness that can sublimate into despotism and sadism. Khomeini sent thousands of almost unarmed men into battle during the Iran-Iraq war.
Violence contains a significant moment of self-affirmation. A sadistic act of violence corresponds to the communication needs of a normal person. Violence on citizens is the only way to prove his power to himself. Muammar Gaddafi was the ruler of this type .
The dictators are in power for 30-40 years, and it is practically impossible to replace them, which causes outrage among the educated part of Arab society. There is no mechanism for peaceful and legitimate transfer of power to new political forces in the region, that correspond to modern realities. The structure of Arab societies has nothing in common with the European way of life, but this fact is overlooked in the Russian and Western publications. The principle of family and clan forms a powerful regional structures that play a huge role in the political and economic life. Thus, the concept of balance of the state and society ( which implies the principle of protection of the rights of the individual, and which is traditional for western philosophy) works completely differently in the Arab world, where the supreme power provides a balance of power between the powerful clans and tribes. Religious conflicts between different directions of Islam have almost the same intensity in the modern Middle East, which had been in Europe during the religious wars.
The United States decided to intervene in the events in Libya. The UN Security Council authorized the Western countries to carry out
a number of air military operations over Libya, according to a resolution adopted in 1973. the West military intervention was legal and necessary because there are situations that require intervention. Pol Pot killed third of the population in Cambodia. If Vietnam had not intervened, Pol Pot would have killed another third. Idi Amin gave people to be eaten by crocodiles and did other crimes in Uganda. If Tanzania had not intervened, he would have continued to do so. Tutsis and Hutus slaughtered each other in Rwanda. As there was no intervention, then 1.5 million people have been hammered with hoes. Saakashvili shelled Tskhinvali. If Russia had not intervened, he would have forced thousands of Ossetians through the Roki Tunnel in North Ossetia.
However, France, Britain and their allies, causing air strikes against the regular army and air defenses in Libya, have put themselves in a quandary. The ground operation on Libyan territory were prohibited under UN Security Council resolutions. Only the air strikes were ineffective. Russia's position on the Libyan issue has caused bewilderment. Once the European Union has recognized the power of Gaddafi as illegitimate, it became clear that his power would fall sooner or later. It would be advantageous for Russia to take an active part in aiding the rebels. Instead, on the one hand, Russia has blocked a Western military operation, and on the other - immediately criticized it.
President Putin called the UN Security Council resolution "defective and flawed", adopted at the non-resistance of Russia and China, and allies military operation compared with the crusade.
Moscow called on all States to comply strictly the requirements of UN Security Council resolutions 1970 and 1973, and to refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of Libya. Experts predict that Russia is likely to lose contracts both on the development of gas fields and the construction of infrastructure, due to the change of power in Libya.
Sharp differences have emerged between Russia and the West over the conflict in Syria as well. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Western powers, supported the strengthening of pressure on the regime of B. Assad, in carrying out destructive policy, that undermines the process of national reconciliation.
The fire of the civil war have been raging in Syria since the spring of 2011 and until today. The cruel actions of Assad's regime in suppressing the uprising have led to internationalization of the conflict. Russia and China took a tough stance against the possibility of foreign intervention in Syria from the beginning. In 2012, Moscow and Beijing used the right of veto in the UN Security Council twice. Russia opposes sanctions. Moscow's offer to remove from Syria and to destroy all chemical weapons stockpiles, backed by the international community, became a significant step forward in resolving the crisis. Russia's position on Libya and its sharply polar approach to Syria reflect a lack of system in Russia's policy in the Middle East. While the Western powers' coalition bombing Libya, the internal conflicts have been intensified in other countries of the Middle East, the situation has been aggravated in Syria and Yemen.
The riots took away thousands of casualties among the protesters in these countries. In Bahrain, the Saudi army troops helped quell the opposition. The authorities of Algeria, Morocco and Jordan have taken into account the lessons of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, and quickly began negotiations with the opposition, the monarchs of the Gulf states promise new workplaces and social reforms.
However aggravation of the situation in Syria and Yemen, the entry of Saudi troops in Bahrain demonstrate a new dangerous trend in Muslim countries - the aggravation of strife within Islam. Longtime contradictions exist between Sunnis (who make up 90% of Muslims) and Shiites (remaining 10%). Sunnis dominated in North Africa, the
Arabian Peninsula and Turkey, Shiites - Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Bahrain.
The most unpleasant scenario will be for the West if the destabilization spill over from Yemen to neighboring oil monarchies and the eastern province of Saudi Arabia, where many Shiites live, and it will cause a new round of aggravation in Lebanon. Now the contradictions within Islam are useful for Iran, because it can give the anti-European and anti-American direction for Shiite protests. This position of Tehran is easily explained: while the West is engaged in Libya, it is not engaged in Iran.
Algerian scenario could be repeated in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Syria. Arab revolutions may have been provoked by the Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf and led to the strengthening of the Islamic factor in the Middle East. Islamist parties banned under previous regimes in Egypt and in the post-revolution countries of Middle East are the most organized political force.
Certainly, there are grounds for fearing that the new situation created by the revolution in the Arab countries, can be used by Islamists to rearrange their forces and to seize power later. As a result, the radicalization of the population, chaos, economic recession, jump in oil prices, uncontrolled wave of migration will be expected in these countries. Euphoria prevails in the Western media today. The overwhelming majority of experts in the West prefer to ignore the fact that fighters against dictators may seek not for democracy, but only to the government, and the establishment of an Islamic forms of state system a la Iran.
Ignorant crowds are carriers of repression out of revenge. They paid little attention to the dignity of other social strata and groups that make up the actual majority in aggregate, as they were convinced groundlessly that they are the majority in society. Tyranny of the
leaders, who came to power as a result of the uprising, is perceived by the masses as the necessity to suppress their "oppressors". Reaction of the Soviet people on the repression of the Stalin era can be an example.
Those leaders who came to power after the victory of the uprising, are not professionals. They see people as a unity, and do not realize or do not wish to take into account the different layers and groups whose desires and interests are often inconsistent.
In summary, only three scenarios are possible in the post-revolutionary Middle East, in fact.
The first scenario is the least likely. Arab liberals come to power for a long time, and build a democratic society.
The second scenario is more likely. Pseudo-democrats will come to power, will spend some reforms and will mimic the Democrats, under pressure from the West, building a pseudo democratic regimes.
Finally, the third scenario is the most likely: Islamic extremists will take advantage of the situation in the region, will hold a large-scale recruitment of supporters and try to impose Islamic regimes everywhere. Chaos and civil war of Algeria and the Somali patterns are inevitable in this scenario.
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