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Dow Jones Industrial Average = -1287.065 + x1 * 3.087 + x2 * 34.564 + x3 * (-0.319) + x4 * 0.001+x5 * 57.343
The equation could be interpreted that Dow Jones Industrial Average will change if one of the «x» factors is changed, most of them has positive impact, the one (x4) has negative. The most significant factors are: real GDP and effective federal fund rate.
The analysis of factors which could affect the Dow Jones Industrial Average index lead us to a conclusion that only two of them have passed all of the tests and could be used for statistical analysis - GDP growth and the effective federal funds will increase Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks' price. This model is suitable for forecasting, but for the more precise and reliable analysis additional factors should be added.
References:
1.Suslov M., Tregub I., Modeling the currency exchange rate. Methods and principles // Economics - 2015 № 1 p. 67 -70.
2.The World Bank Database [Электронный ресурс] URL: http://data.worldbank.org/
УДК 338.24
Talalai M. master student department of economics Southern Federal University Russia, Taganrog
Andrienko A. S., Associate Professor, Candidate of Pedagogical Sciences
department of foreign languages Southern Federal University Makarenya T.A., Associate Professor, Doctor of Economics
department of economics Southern Federal University DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE OF IMPORT SUBSTITUTION IN THE DOMESTIC IT MARKET
Abstract: article is analyses the current research in the sphere of import substitution development in the Russian IT market. The main segments of the market are considered. The review of competitiveness of the Russian products is carried out. The obstacles for the import substitution program development are touched upon.
Keywords: import substitution, IT market, Software, Hardware, IT services.
IT market is one of the most dynamically grown markets in the Russian Federation. This market traditionally includes Hardware, computer peripherals, Software and IT-services.
Due the last political events, Government of the Russian Federation declared the path of "IT-sovereignty" like an import substitution of IT production. At the
"Экономика и социум" №3(34) 2017
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same time, realization of this path is an extremelly difficult process, full of obstructions.
Let's consider, three main segments of IT market (software, hardware and IT-services) related to perspectives of import substitution progress. Part of Russian IT market, reached mark of 17.2 billion dollars in 2014, can be divided in the following way:
IT services - nearly 6 billion;
Software - a little bit more then 3 billion;
Hardware - close to 8 billion [2].
1. Domestic companies lead at IT-services section; we can say that native companies have the lion's share of total turnover. For example, system integration (the most significant type of IT-services) mostly is under control of the domestic companies. And it cannot be surprised, that domestic companies are to understand Russian customers in the best way and can quickly adapt to their requests.
The situation in others market segments is a little harder. According to various estimates, 80 percent of sells in Software segment belong to import production. But some market participants are sure that inner market Software can hold now not 20, but 80 percent.
IT production's consumers can cut their costs by using the inner market production. For example, Russian domestic servers are cheaper than the same import competitor's analogs. Besides, customers from all other the world (and Russian customers too) appreciate the benefits of free Software - open source products, licensed under GNU GPL.
Worlds part of Unix-controlled Web servers, such as LINUX, is now nearly 38 percent. This economic problem can be carried out by domestic inner market developers according to different requests of consumers, and be implemented using Russian Hardware.
What can we say about information systems? Russian IT companies have the real potential here. For example, we can look at one of the largest segments of the Russian IT market, which can be called ERP system (Enterprise Resource Planning).
The brightest Russian representatives of ERP system are the following companies: "1C", "Galaktika", "Parus", etc. They have grown up and continue to develop [1].
Their positions, despite the fierce competition with lots of western products. For example, at the moment "1C" company controls nearly the third part of Russian ERP-system market, and a part of workstation equipment is more than 80 percent.
Also, the native companies are very reliable as BI (Business Analysis) system developers, which provide analysis and prediction of the major business processes. According to various sources, the third part of BI-systems market belongs to Russian developers nowadays. Lot of Russian companies has been developing application and Business Software, and can be competitive to leading Western and world's analogs.
2. The situation with Hardware production is more difficult at the inner market. The lion's share of IT Hardware in Russian Federation has been manufactured in other countries. It is tough to correct this situation, and the most important thing: we need a lot of time to do this. Besides, it is worth noting that Russia still has the highest level of tech education, and Russian IT-companies have enough Software and Hardware developing potential, because it is not used on the full scale.
But in Hardware segment native developers have got their own decisions. For example Russian company MCST developed their own computer processors, which specifications are similar to specifications of Intel and AMD products, and at some kinds of tasks Russian analogs are even better. Russian companies successfully collect server Hardware and develop different consumers gadgets.
No doubt, we have high hopes for the best future of native IT companies, because they are pretty well in engineering that let them technologically overtake western rivals, or, at least, to be in same place.
In other words, native IT-companies have qualitative competitive products. But we have to understand that exchanging of IT production import to the native market is a very long process; if we talk about Hardware production, we are to take into account long terms.
It is high time to find appropriate ways for the development of import substitution at Russian IT market. First, it is an urgent need of giant investments to improve production and assortment of IT Hardware. Second, we are to be aware of the fact that developers and consumers prefers IT production import.
It is no doubt that appropriate conception to organize the import substitution policy in the inner market will give a chance to native IT-developers to push forward the domestic production for entering new market segments in Russia and abroad.
Bibliography
l.Import substitution in IT: utopia or reality? [Electronic resource]. Access mode: "http:// expert.ru/ expert/2014/38/importozameschenie-v-it-utopiya-ili-realnost/" -(Date of the application: 2.02.2017).
2.The dynamics and structure of the market [Electronic resource]. - Access mode: HTTP HYPERLINK "http://marketing.rbc.ru/reviews/it-
business/chapter_1_1.shtml" - (Date of the application: 3.02.2017).
