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УПРАВЛЕНИЕ ЭКОНОМИКОЙ: ПРОБЛЕМЫ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ
УДК 339.727.22:330.342.22 DOI 10.12737/8791
Получено 26.01.2015 Одобрено 30.01.2015 Опубликовано 17.03.2015
Данг Май Ань
сотрудник Министерства иностранных дел Вьетнама e-mail: [email protected]
Факторы, влияющие на прямые иностранные инвестиции в развивающихся странах, в контексте глобализации
Аннотация
Иностранные инвестиции, особенно прямые иностранные инвестиции (ПИИ), играют важную роль для экономического роста и международной интеграции. Тем не менее поток ПИИ в мире зависит от многих факторов, определяющих, например, ВПП, уровень образования, закон о праве интеллектуальной собственности. Анализируя эти факторы, влияющие на ПИИ, можно определить тенденции глобальных ПИИ и политику в привлечении ПИИ в развивающихся странах для экономического роста.
Ключевые слова:
инвестиция, ПИИ, развивающиеся страны, глобализация, интеграция, экономика, финансы.
Dang Mai Anh
Employee of the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs of Vietnam
e-mail: [email protected]
Determinant of Foreign Direct Investment into Developing Countries in the Circumstance of Globalization
abstract
Foreign investment, especially FDI plays a role more and more important for economic growth and international integration. However, the flux of FDI in the world is influenced by many determinants such as the population, GDP, the education level, the law on intellectual property right... Analyzing these determinants of FDI could contribute to find out the trend of global FDI and the solutions for developing countries to attract more FDI for economic growth.
Keywords:
investment, FDI, developing countries, globalization, integration, economic, financial.
Though FDI has a decisive role for economic development and economic growth in recipient countries, and FDI is one of the keys for the global economic integration of developing countries, we all know that not all FDI could be beneficial for investors and not all recipient countries could be successful in attracting FDI for economic growth . Meanwhile, the flux of FDI, which is determined by long-term factors, is considered more important than portfolio investment To discover in detail these determinants in the circumstance of global financial crisis and economic recession is very meaningful for recipient developing countries, especially when these countries plays more and more important role in the global economic map
There are common determinants, determinants viewed from investors and determinants viewed from recipient countries
• The common determinants which could affect the flux of FDI includes the global macroeconomic
situation, the international integration, the international politic situation and some natural disaster with international impact ...
Determinants viewed from the investors: these determinants, which represent all elements affecting the decision of foreign investors, could be different according to the types of FDI . The investor of market seeking FDI makes attention to the market size of the recipient countries, the purchasing power, the possibility of market access, geographical position, government policies. while the investors of resource seeking FDI refer to the quality and price of labour, the stock of natural resources, government policies. Factors related to FDI attraction of host countries can be divided into three categories: economic factors and non-economic factors and other factors (UNCTAD, 1998) . The economic factors include: domestic market size of the host country, natural resources, macroeconomic situation, abundant labor resources, low cost labor;
Table 1
Determinants of FDi viewed from the investors
Market seeking FDI Resource seeking FDI Efficiency seeking FDI
Market size in the recipient countries High quality labor (%) in recipient countries Cheap labor cost in recipient countries
Purchasing power in recipient countries Natural resource in recipient countries Possibility of technological application, economic of scale in recipient countries
Possibility of Market access: geographical position, relative policies in home and host countries...
Other determinants: corruption, political stability, and ire law in host countries
situation of international integration and regional infrastructure status of FDI recipient countries . The non-economic factors including the legal framework of investment in the host country; geographical location, political stability, corruption situation . . . . Also there are some other factors that affect the flux of FDI such as the protection of intellectual property rights in the recipient country, the instability of the exchange rate, foreign debt, fiscal deficits, privatization, the promotion strategy investment The flux of FDI into developing countries in the world is analysed according to main geographical areas: Developing countries in Africa, in Asia, in Latin America and in Europe . In general, developing countries in the world attracts more and more FDI since the XXI century The share of FDI into developing world has acceded more than 50% of the total global FDI . Nevertheless, the financial crisis 2008 has heavy negative impact on this flux of capital . Indeed, FDI into African developing countries has been most strongly affected by the crisis, FDI into other developing areas has been also decreased but which has returned to the pre-crisis level . The crisis has less negative effects for FDI into developing Asian countries when the value of this flux was decreased a little in 2009 but it has returned and reached a new record in 2011. Global foreign direct investment fell by 18 per cent to $1. 35 trillion in 2012 . FDI flows to developing economies proved to be much more resilient than flows to developed countries, recording their second highest level — even though they declined slightly (by 4 per cent) to $703 billion in 2012 . Among regions, flows to developing Asia and Latin America remained at historically high levels, but their growth momentum weakened . [1] In 2013, FDI flows returned to an upward trend Global FDI inflows rose by 9 per cent to $1 45 trillion in 2013 . FDI inflows increased in all major economic groupings — developed, developing and transition economies Global FDI stock rose by 9 per cent, reaching $25 . 5 trillion . FDI flows to developing economies reached a new high at $778 billion (table 1), accounting for 54 per cent of global inflows, although the growth rate slowed to 7 per cent, compared with an average growth rate over the past 10 years of 17 per cent . Developing Asia continues to be the region with the highest FDI inflows, significantly above the EU, traditionally
the region with the highest share of global FDI FDI inflows were up also in the other major developing regions, Africa (up 4 per cent) and Latin America and the Caribbean (up 6 per cent, excluding offshore financial centers) [2]
Current situation of determinants of FDI into developing countries
• Econimic Integration: Economic Integration has a critical impact on the value of FDI flows globally. The increasing trend of FDI flows advances along with the globalizing trend, signifying the sound decision of countries to blend in with this international tendency In developing countries, in particular, the boosting power of their WTO adhesion is likely to be most apparent, which also brings in economic growth through FDI attraction The global economic integration, specifically the free trade and liberalization of international investment, impacts significantly on the movement of FDI flows . In time of global economic downfall, the intensity of liberalization of trade and investment will reduce country risk as a consequence of global crisis . The global economic integration is referred to each country's commitment preceding its WTO adhesion, without which, FDI flows might not meet the targeted expectation Overall, with its 157 country-and-economic-region members and 27 observers, WTO has signified the importance of international economic integration In a nutshell, the global factors impacting on FDI flows might be summarized into globalization and both the invested developing countries and their investing host countries might hold some certain great advantages to attract FDI through liberalization of trade and investment
• The Global Macroeconomics Situation: In the first place, the global economy in the recent decades has observed the rises of China, in specific, the preceding three decades witnessed a rapid growth of the country, marked by the year of 2010 when its economy replaced Japan's to be the second largest economy in the world . China in the new century also successfully launched a manned-mission spacecraft into space, making it the only country to break the dominance of the US and Russia in the field of manned-mission space exploration
Secondly, while the largest economies in the world are suffering, new industrial countries, particularly in Asia, soared to develop and support the recovery of the global economy, namely, India, Australia — countries having quick recoveries and many others which climbed to the pre-recession economic growth . These Asian countries have the economic growth expected to be highest in the preceding 2 decades .
Finally, the macro economy globally is brooded by the elongation of financial crisis, resulting in challenges for developing countries, government debt crisis, inflation and unemployment problems The recent economic recession of the period from 2008—2009 has been historically recognized as the most deteriorating downfall of global economy since the Great Depression in 1929-1933. • Economic factors:
+ The market size: The domestic market with some basic characteristics such as size and affordability is the most important factors affecting foreign direct investment in general and developing countries in particular Domestic market size of each country may go along with its huge advantage in attracting market-seeking FDI . Some countries have significantly developed domestic market size are China with population of over 1. 3 billion people, India with over 1 2 billion people, Indonesia with over 240 million people, etc . This is the important source of demand for products which are produced by firms in countries that receive FDI investments
+ Workforce: skills and labor cost: Workforce investment in the host country affects FDI in two directions A market with cheap labor attracts efficiency-seeking FDI through low cost . But cheap labor also means low quality workers This is also considered an advantage for developing countries in the traditional competition of attracting FDI The second direction is more modern: FDI that is seeking for a source of high-quality labor. Accordingly, the countries having high quality workforce will attract more foreign direct investment And this is the new trend of the current FDI: FDI will focus more on industry with high level of technique and technology instead of mining industry Foreign direct investment affected by the level of the labor force is not a common phenomenon as we see in the developing countries, industries that process raw material or the industries that is labor intensive still accounted for an absolute advantage in attracting the attention of foreign direct investment
+ Income per capita: Theoretically, a country with relatively high per capita income has more advantages in attracting market-seeking FDI . This type of FDI prefers markets with large population size, affordability and high per capita income is a good variable reflecting
the purchasing power of the recipients' markets . Research on the per capita income in developing countries shows that although there are similarities in income per capita, there are still differences in the standard of living or per capital GDP.
+ Natural resources: One of the important reasons behind foreign direct investment in the world in general and in developing countries in private is geared towards natural resources, especially mineral ones — the top concern of mining industry Developing countries own diverse resources: including mineral, forest, land and water, seafood. There are a variety of minerals in Asia, which are very rich and abundant but not fully exploited The minerals, which have significant reserves are oil, charcoal, iron, and ferrous metals, like copper, lead, tin and bauxite The ancient base is home too much iron, manganese, bauxite, gold and some precious metals African countries have very large oil reserves and are the attracting investment points of large oil corporations in the world
+ The economic openness of recipient countries: Among the factors affecting the FDI attractiveness of each country, the opening of the economy must be included . Economic openness can be understood as the ability of a country's integration into the world market, which is expressed in a number of criteria such as the participation in the international organizations or bilateral and multilateral agreements to protect investment Each developing country can be the member of many organizations, forums or international associations For example, Vietnam is a member of ASEAN, APEC, ASEM, WTO; the developing countries in Africa region may be a member of WAEMU (West African Monetary Union), CAEMC (Central African Economic and Monetary Union), ECOWAS (West African Monetary Zone). The largest organization, which most of the developing countries in the world are the official members, is the World Trade Organization WTO
+ The infrastructure condition of recipient countries: The essence of FDI is the private investment with the aim to seek profit The FDI enterprises would save a lot of costs in the investment environment having favourable infrastructure, especially in the traffic system Besides the transportation system, the infrastructure situation also reflects in a number of other criteria such as power, water, telecom and Internet supply situation in the recipient countries
+ Geographical position: Favorable geographical position implies many meanings First, recipient country is located geographically close countries investors or large economic center, near the crowded market to facilitate the sale of products . Second, favorable geographic location can also be interpreted as recipient
country is located near the sea port, international airport, convenient transportation for international trade and third, good geographical location also known as a sea water ownership, the country is not surrounded by continent
+ Political stability: Now, armed conflicts, civil wars, border disputes occurring in many parts of the world The conflict, in particular the large-scale conflict could bring more serious consequences for the country where the conflict on the economy in general and in particular in attracting FDI . In many developing countries around the world appear armed groups, insurgents against the government, the seeds of political instability Africa, where political turmoil is pretty serious
+ Corruption: Corruption is a common problem of all countries in the world . But because of the characteristics associated with the level of economic development, income, legal systems can be found in the developing countries, corruption is more common and more severe According to Transparency International index of cor-
ruption perceptions in 2013 measures the level of corruption of public areas in 178 countries around the world . The area is the most serious corruption often focus on developing countries and least developed in Asia, Africa and the Americas According to the organization Transparency International, Cameroon, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Uganda, more than 50% of the respondents answered that they were paying a premium tea in the country That ratio is about 23 to 49% in the group of countries such as Bolivia, Cambodia, Mongolia, Venezuela Corruption has a negative impact on all aspects of economic life, including attracting FDI
Effective attraction of FDI is one of important objectives of all countries in the context of the current international integration . However, in order to attract FDI for economic development, recipient developing countries need to identify the factors that affect capital flows so that by changing the factors that attracted efficiency FDI results, especially in the context of crisis and world economic downturn
References
1. UNCTAD. World Investment Report 2013: Global Value Chains: Investment and Trade for Development.
2. UNCTAD. World Investment Report 2014: Investing in the SDGs: An action plan.
