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MODERN RUSSIA: IDEOLOGY, POLITICS, CULTURE AND RELIGION
VALENTINA SCHENSNOVICH. DEMOGRAPHY AND MIGRATION PROCESSES IN MODERN RUSSIA // The review was written for the bulletin "Russia and the Moslem World."
Keywords: birth rate, crude birth rate (CBR), aggregate birth rate (ABR), the national project "Demography," maternal (family) capital, government assistance programs, social policy, poor families, family benefits, forecasting demographic processes, population migration in the Russian Federation.
Valentina Schensnovich,
Research Associate, INION RAN
Citation: Schensnovich V. Demography and Migration Processes in Modern Russia / / Russia and the Moslem World, 2020, No. 2 (308), P. 5-23. DOI: 10.31249/rmw/2020.02.01
Abstract. Demography and migration processes in Russia at the present stage seem especially relevant, since in recent years a tendency toward a decrease in the population has been clearly seen. The authors of the articles consider certain aspects and the significance of the national project "Demography," set out proposals for improving the state
demographic policy. Particular attention is paid to migration processes in Russia and demographic forecasts for 2020-2030.
Introduction
The most important direction of modern social development of Russia is reflected in Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 204 of May 7, 2018, where, among national goals, ensuring sustainable natural population growth in Russia is put in first place. Natural population growth is determined by the ratio of birth and death rates. In this case, in terms of minimizing the threat of population aging, the key role belongs to birth rate. Birth rate is an important factor in the formation and maintenance of human capital necessary for the development of the economy, especially in terms of increasing the level of labor productivity. Analytical assessments of the relationship of demographic processes in general as a factor in the innovative development of the economy, and in particular the labor market, are given in modern economic periodicals. The works also analyze various aspects of birth rate itself as an important component of integral socio-economic development.
State Support for Birth Rate
Doctor of Economics, professor of the Institute of Public Administration and Management (IPAM) of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation (Moscow) A. Shcherbakov [3] considers current aspects of state regulation of birth rate in Russia and characterizes its recent changes. The researcher evaluates the main directions and measures of the practiced state support for birth rate. Attaching particular importance to state support of motherhood, aimed at encouraging the birth of children, supporting families in which
the third child was born, the researcher sets out proposals for the development of demographic policy in this direction.
After 2015, the number of births in Russia, notes A. Shcherbakov, as well as the aggregate birth rate (ABR), is significantly decreasing annually. The deepest decline in the birth rate in the country for the entire period of statistical observation occurred in 1999, when the crude birth rate (CBR) dropped to 8.3% (the number of births amounted to 1214.7 thousand). In 2000, the problem of birth rate as the most important state priority in the modern history of Russia was posed in the Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. The main measures of state policy in the field of birth rate were also proposed by the President of the Russian Federation in his messages in the middle of the first decade of the 21st century (including the mechanism for the payment of maternal or family capital, patrimonial certificates, etc.), and were put into effect by the legislators of the country. After the proclamation of a demographic policy, including birth control as a priority of state social policy and the adoption of appropriate measures, the annual increase in the birth rate and the decrease in natural decline until 2015 became more stable. ABR in 2015 as a result of progressive growth in previous years reached the value of 1.781. However, to date, it has significantly decreased and now Russia is inferior in this indicator to such countries as, for example, Lithuania, the Netherlands, France, Sweden, etc.
According to the researcher, the statement of the problem of increasing private birth rates appears to be quite justified in the adopted National Project "Demography." This applies to birth rates among women aged 25-29 and 30-34 years, although the final values of these coefficients, i.e., indicators for 2024, could be higher. In recent years, the birth rate situation in the country has become very unfavorable, and this has led to a general deterioration in demographic dynamics. As for the geography of birth rate in Russia, large differences are revealed here. Today, some Siberian and Caucasian territories are characterized by high
birth rates, while situation in the central and north-western territories is just the opposite. In recent years, among the regions with the highest birth rates there were: the Chechen Republic, the Republic of Daghestan, Ingushetia, Tuva and Altai. The regions with the lowest birth rate in 2017 included the Leningrad Region (8.3%), the Republic of Mordovia (8.5%) and the Tambov Region (8.6%). ABR in 2017 was the lowest in the Leningrad region (1.22), the Republic of Mordovia (1.26), and in the Voronezh and Smolensk regions (1.37 each). It was the highest in the Chechen Republic (2.73), in the Altai Republic (2.36) and in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (2.08). The reasons for the current decline in the birth rate in the country depend on many factors, and government measures for demographic development should take this into account, emphasizes A. Shcherbakov.
In Russia there exists an extensive system of monetary support for birth rate and the family. However, from the point of view of the author of the article, it is insufficient. The childcare allowance for working citizens, which can be applied to both mother and father and paid for 1.5 years from the moment of the child's birth, is 40% of the parent's monthly earnings and has a maximum limit. In 2019, this is 26 152.33 rubles. In March of this year, for example, the average salary in the country amounted to 45,000 rubles. Consequently, the childcare allowance for working citizens was to be 18 thousand rubles (40%), and for women, as a rule, receiving even less (by 15-18%), about 15 thousand rubles. If we consider not the average, but the median, or the so-called modal wages, then this amount will decrease significantly (according to some sources, to 9.0-9.5 thousand rubles). Such income can put the child's parents in the position of officially registered poor people, and a significant part of the population will have to apply for child support in low-income families. Another example of a low level of payments related to birth rate is the allowance for the care of a child aged 1.5 to 3 years. The country's leadership intends to increase it for deprived families from 50 rubles per month to the subsistence level of the child in the region.
For 2001-2007 an increase in the crude birth rate (CBR) in Russia amounted to 130.0%, with the sharpest growth in 2007, when state measures to support birth rate were introduced; for 2008-2015 CBR increased to 117.7%. A number of scientists and experts expressed doubts when discussing in the media the feasibility of individual measures to increase the birth rate, in particular maternal capital. The proposal to cancel it could be perceived as the position of state bodies. This in a certain way affected the demographic behavior of the population, weakening the desire of families to have children. The attentive attitude of the population to the position and intentions of state bodies in this regard is also confirmed by expert studies. Surveys showed that, for example, in 2007-2012 at least about a third of men and women who implemented the decision to give birth to a second child made this decision taking into account the state measures to support families with children. Speaking about the demographic policy, according to the author, it should be taken into account that due to the inertia of the demographic behavior models, stability, sustainability and permanence of state demographic support and, if possible, its strengthening are necessary. Therefore, the social significance and the real cost content of maternal (family) capital (MC) as a form of state influence on birth rate should not have been reduced. However, as calculations show, in recent years, there has been observed a decrease of socio-cost value of MC.
It is also important, the researcher emphasizes, to streamline and make the whole system of measures of state support of birth rate in Russia more accessible and intelligible for the population. At the end of 2018, the national federal project "Demography" was approved. Among its key goals, the emphasis is rightly placed on increasing ABR, since the number of women of young, childbearing age in the country has declined today due to demographic trends of the last century. If, for example, in 1989 the country had 23.3 million women aged 2039 years, then in 2018 their number amounted to 21.3 million
people. For the birth rate process, 2 million women make a significant difference, especially in conditions of low ABR.
The national project under consideration consists of the following federal projects: "Financial support for families at the birth of children"; "Promoting the employment of women -creating conditions for pre-school education for children under the age of three"; "Development and implementation of a program of systemic support and improving the quality of life of citizens of the older generation" ("Older Generation"); "Formation of a system of motivating citizens to a healthy lifestyle, including healthy eating and giving up bad habits" ("Strengthening public health"); "Creating conditions for all categories and population groups for engagement in sports, mass sports, increasing the level of provision of the population with sports facilities, as well as preparing a sports reserve" ("Sport is the norm of life").
The most expensive of these federal projects is "Financial support for families at the birth of children" (2688.4 billion rubles, or 86.6% of the total cost of this national project as a whole). It is aimed, in particular, to support deprived families at the birth of the first child, as well as all families at the birth of the third and subsequent children; issuing a certificate for family capital, providing mortgage loans at a rate of 6% to families with two or more children.
A. Scherbakov shows the possible directions of development of state assistance to the birth rate. According to the researcher, in general, the national project "Demography" is an expression of a multilateral, resource-based state approach to solving the urgent and important tasks of modern Russian society. At the same time, the author of the article believes, important directions of state influence on the birth rate growth are still not fully involved in it. First of all, this is a territorially differentiated aspect: the population in the territories with a birth rate below the average, according to the author, should receive more state support for birth rates than in other territories.
Strengthening federal - budgetary - and other support for birth rate should be exactly of such nature, and as for the measures to stimulate birth rate already existing, it is possible that they can gradually be diminished in regions with a relatively high average birth rate. It is also necessary, the researcher emphasizes, to ensure long-term and stable state support for birth rate calculated for at least 10-15 years. In addition, it is important to strengthen and increase the authority of the institution of a traditional family, including a multi-generational family: the development of family state policy, and not abstract demographic one. A key aspect of demographic policy is government support for a large family.
In the national project "Demography" for 20192024 monthly federal payments are planned for more than 415 thousand families for the third and subsequent children with a certain share of regional co-financing, until the child reaches the age of 3. In the context of the current demographic situation in the country, A. Shcherbakov believes, much more focused and targeted state support for the birth of the third child is needed. An emphasis on the weightiness of federal (and regional) support for the third child's birth is important. It is advisable to assign such state support, the appropriate payments to the federal center to a greater extent. It is desirable that support for the birth and upbringing of the third child substantially exceeded similar measures for the first and second child. A full and timely indexation of maternal capital is required, adequate to the real value of inflation for the entire period of its operation, especially for 2016-2019.
The author thinks the following measures important and appropriate: the use of tax leverage to support the family, the change in the tax burden on the income of each of the spouses -parents or guardians when the third child appears and further on. However, A. Shcherbakov believes that it is advisable to apply such birth control stimulation not to all tax-paying parents, but only those whose incomes are not higher than the average
wage in the region. It is assumed that for recipients of large salaries such tax benefits are less significant. The appearance of children in the family should not turn into a factor of its financial disadvantage, the transition to low-income, needy categories of the population, the researcher emphasizes. Ultimately, the national project "Demography" and a number of measures for socio-economic development are called upon to become an essential prerequisite for providing the population with greater confidence in the future and, accordingly, optimizing the birth rate in the country.
State Policy in the Field of Demography,
Migration Processes in Russia
The article by A. Tkachenko, ScD(Economics), Professor of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Moscow) [2] analyzes the main problems in connection with the implementation of the May 2018 decree of the President of the Russian Federation. The main objectives of the decree include the goals of the demographic, social, migration policy of the Russian state, including reduction in the mortality rate of the working-age population, assistance to poor families with minor children, increase in the birth rate, fight against poverty, and a steady migration influx of population into Russia.
The national project "Demography," the content of which is wider than the name, consists of 5 parts. Each part is a federal project, which will most likely consist of several federal programs, some of which are closely interrelated.
The first federal project in the field of birth rate, entitled "Financial support for families at the birth of children," is numbered by the Government of the Russian Federation among the most important ones. The expenses for the programs of this project since 2007, when the law on maternal (family) capital was adopted, according to the author of the article, had a slight effect on the birth rate, and its real impact and effectiveness have no
unambiguous assessment. The same section provides tasks related to health and quality of life that increase life expectancy.
The second federal project in the field of employment consists of several programs, mainly related to the status of women, to family responsibilities in the economy. In this regard, the task of fully satisfying the needs of families in kindergartens continues to be under consideration. The project makes provision for the introduction of more than 250 thousand additional places by 2021 and, according to the developers, is fully provided with financing. Funds will be allocated for creation within the framework of the project in the years 2020-2024 of about 9 thousand groups of short-term stay of children and for vocational training of women with children up to three years during the period of parental leave. Employment support programs traditionally cover two components. The first is training women who are on maternity leave. This program was not previously supported by the federal budget, but was funded only by regional budgets and therefore had no significant effect. Now, in this program, which is being reintroduced into the national project, the regions will annually receive subsidies from the federal budget to create child care groups up to three years old.
The second component includes the development of the so-called care groups as small private organizations, which is due to the inability to open kindergartens in all settlements. Organizers-educators of the groups will receive grants in the framework of the state program, which is not generally accepted practice, and will receive training for working with children with the help of the state, which takes a time out for 2018-2019 to prepare all the regulatory conditions for a program that complements ordinary childcare facilities.
The third federal project of the national project "Demography" "The older generation" includes three areas, among which there is "Active longevity." At the same time, A. Tkachenko believes, the developers of the project have not a clear idea of the content of this term, because they said that its
development is in connection with the task of increasing life expectancy. The project also includes a program to create a long-term care system. Such programs in world practice are aimed at helping people who cannot minister to themselves and require social and medical services. The author notes that there are no such studies in Russia yet, but they are necessary to create a long-term care system, which will be included in the Project "Demography" and will require not only significant, but every year increasing funding. The program of active longevity is associated with healthy life expectancy, which means disability-free life expectancy. In accordance with the position of scientists and practitioners in the field of health preservation, it is expected that an elderly persons will live without serious or moderate health problems, which they cope with themselves.
In 2015, indicators of the healthy life expectancy of older people were included in the Eurostat study "EU statistics on income and living conditions." In Russia, A. Tkachenko notes, such an indicator is not yet available. In addition, a minimum European health module (MEHM) consisting of three indicators: disability, chronic morbidity, and perceived (subjective) state of health was developed and put into practice. In Russia, pilot projects for the care of the elderly are already practiced in 6 constituent entities of the Federation (in the territory limited to 12 municipalities), and the project aims to eliminate queues in institutions for the elderly. It is proposed to introduce modern international principles for supporting senior citizens and prolonging their healthy lives. In this regard, the author of the article believes that it is necessary to refer more often to the results of research, as well as to the reports of international organizations, for example, the OECD or UNICEF.
The fourth federal project is related to a healthy lifestyle, the implementation of which, according to A. Tkachenko, does not look quite correct: it is supposed to be implemented at the corporate level, where employers and employees must implement healthy lifestyle programs. The project developers
hope to solve the problem of reducing the mortality rate of the working-age population through the fight against tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, and also as a result of improved working conditions,. However, the other side of the problem is not taken into account: male mortality at the age from 16 to 60 years old is 3-3.5 times higher than female mortality rates. Therefore, the researcher notes, to use the same the problem of reducing mortality in working age needs different approaches and measures.
The fifth federal project will be devoted to the development of physical education, so it is difficult to attribute it to the national project "Demography" and, the author of the article believes, it would be worthwhile to regard it as a separate federal program. Indeed, with such a non-subordinated set of projects and programs, there is a high probability that both effective management of individual projects and the national project as a whole would be impossible.
According to the researcher, the national project "Demography" should also include the main goals from the Concept of the State Migration Policy of the Russian Federation for 2019-2025, or there should be made changes that modify the state migration policy. It should not be a change in market conditions, for example, associated with an increase in the retirement age, and, consequently, as a number of officials and experts believe, with a decrease in vacancies in the labor market and the consequent need to limit labor migration. Such a market approach, A. Tkachenko believes, has nothing to do with the goals of long-term development and cannot change state concepts, policies, and long-term programs.
The concept puts in the first place the main goal of state policy as a whole: to achieve stabilization in and even increase the country's population, and the labor force needs of the Russian economy are in the second place. This, to some extent, differs from the structure of the national project "Demography" proposed by the Ministry of Labor and Social Development of the
Russian Federation. When developing the forecast of population migration in Russia, Rosstat uses the number of arrivals and departures as scenario variables, although, for example, the balance of migration by countries of arrival differs significantly from the balance of arrivals and departures by the same countries. And although the forecast scenarios are reviewed every two years, their spread is too large to be, according to the researcher, a real basis for planning migration flows and regulating them. According to the latest forecast by Rosstat, revised in February 2018, the spread between the extreme of the three migration options makes 2.2 times for 2018, 4.5 times for 2023 and almost 5 times starting from 2030 and until the end of the forecast period (2036), which from the point of view of scientific justification cannot be recognized as sound. A number of authors have proposed a migration forecast based on a model that takes into account both arrivals and net migration (net migration). Such studies can expand the horizons of choice for deciding on the possible volumes of migration. Calculations using this forecast model indicate a rather low net migration flow from the CIS countries to Russia: about 130 thousand people annually in 2018-2023.
The author of the article considers it necessary to pay attention to the US experience with regard to such an aspect of migration policy as social support for migrant families with children. The national project "Demography" is being developed and will be approved in a psychologically difficult period for society, when the government approved indexation of benefits for 2018 in the amount of only 2.5%, although the consumer price index for goods and services in 2017 was unprecedentedly low for all the years of the XXI century. Indexation of all family benefits, except for maternity capital, which is only planned to be indexed in 2020, will be calculated on February 1, 2019 according to the results of 2018. New monthly payments will be indexed to needy families up to 1.5 years of age when the first or second child is born, introduced from 01.01.2018 and their size will be
revised only in February 2019; regional child allowances will increase as benefits in regions with a surplus budget. Most domestic experts emphasize that the presence of minor children in the family significantly increases the risk of poverty, which indicates the insufficiency of public policy measures. If, in Russia, monetary benefits to low-income families are considered, judging by the statements of the top officials of the state, as measures of demographic policy, then they should be included in the national project under consideration, with the designation of their prospect at least in the medium term. At the same time, A. Tkachenko believes, it is necessary to use foreign experience in order not to associate unnecessary hopes with these benefits and not to set a goal that they are not able to achieve.
An analysis of the fundamental work on the impact of state aid and other sources of social protection for dysfunctional families in the United States suggests that low-income families are heavily dependent on a wide range of programs and that such programs together help these families rise above the poverty line. In this regard, the author of the article believes, such individual measures as assistance to Russian families, the upper threshold of which is defined as one and a half living wages, in the form of an allowance for the second child until the child reaches the age of 1.5 years in the amount of 6,284 rubles. 65 kopecks (from 1.02.2018) and the same amount for the third child already from the funds of maternal capital, most likely, they will not be able to radically change the income of these families so as not only to "raise" the family above the poverty line, but also become at least a small incentive for birth rate growth. Moreover, these measures will not be able to transfer the standard of living of these families to the average Russian standard, which social support systems in other countries try to achieve.
According to the researcher, the declared goals of the new national project in Russia may turn out to be ineffective due to the lack of analysis of the impact of previous innovations,
assessments of which have not yet been made. In addition, the decision to transfer the regions in Russia the right to identify needy families and pay them benefits should be accompanied by 50% co-financing from federal sources, and the regions should have their own budget sources for such programs. Apart from the need to help mothers who want to go to work after parental leave, it is necessary to pay attention to the level of benefits for the mothers who did not work before, which are provided in a minimum amount. So, from 1.02.2018, taking into account the indexation by 2.5%, such mothers receive 3,142.33 rubles for the first child and 6,284.65 rubles for the second and subsequent children. The author of the article emphasizes that paying benefits to even a non-working woman, which is 3.1 times (for the first-born) less than the subsistence level of the child and 1.53 times less for subsequent children is unacceptable in a welfare state.
In addition to targeted assistance to poor families under various programs, it is necessary to highlight such an aspect of the problem as accounting for the income of these families in the taxation system and the impact of tax preferences on their standard of living. In Russian practice, only payments under state benefits are exempted from taxes, but the salary of people with incomes below the subsistence level and mother's benefit in connection with a child's illness are not exempted. Based on the level of payment of sick leave, the mother of a family in which children are often sick, according to existing standards, has no guarantees to avoid poverty.
Prediction of Demographic Processes in the Russian Federation
Demographic forecasts, notes R. Azikhanov [1] (Penza State University), underlie any social forecasting and planning. The demographic forecast is a scientifically based prediction of the main parameters of the population movement and the future
demographic situation: population, age and gender and family structure, birth rate, mortality, migration. Demographic forecasts are the basis for building forecasts for the development of the region's economy, forecasts of labor resources, forecasts of the development and functioning of the service sector. At present, in Russia, demographic forecasts are regularly developed and published by the Federal State Statistics Service, as well as some scientific organizations. The conservative and innovative scenarios of the long-term forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation are based on the average scenario of the demographic forecast developed by Rosstat taking into account the results of the 2010 All-Russian Population Census.
The total birth rate for this scenario in 2030 will make 1.7. The following measures may affect birth rate growth: free provision of land for the construction of a house or cottage at the birth of the third (or subsequent) child; creating conditions for increasing the affordability of housing for families with children, as well as providing housing for young professionals in rural areas. Among the negative factors affecting the demographic situation there are structural changes due to a decrease in the number of women of reproductive age of 20-29 years old with a simultaneous increase in the number of women aged 30-39 years, as well as the tendency to delay the birth of the first child to a later period.
The trend of demographic aging of the population will lead to an increase in the overall mortality rate up to 14 in 2030. At the same time, life expectancy will increase to 74 years by 2030. The main measures to reduce mortality will be aimed at improving the organization of medical care and increasing its accessibility, the prevention of socially significant diseases, and the prevention of mortality as a result of road traffic accidents and of cancer. The emphasis of the state demographic policy on the formation of a healthy lifestyle, on measures to reduce the abuse of alcohol and
tobacco products, on the prevention of alcoholism, tobacco smoking and drug addiction will also improve mortality rates.
Due to the entry into the active reproductive age of thin contingents born in the 1990s, the age composition of the population will significantly deteriorate. At the same time, the working-age population will decrease to 77.4 million people in 2030, and the population over working age will grow to 40.7 million people. As a result, the demographic burden on the working-age population will increase. In these conditions, the role of population migration in the formation of labor potential and its distribution across the country increases. The Concept of the State Migration Policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 is aimed at regulating migration processes, in which goals, principles, tasks, main directions and mechanisms for implementing the state migration policy of the Russian Federation are defined. The implementation of the Concept's measures will allow improving migration legislation in terms of modernizing the mechanism for determining the needs of the Russian economy in foreign workers, simplifying the entry, exit and stay of qualified foreign specialists, entrepreneurs and investors, developing educational and academic migration, improving the mechanism for foreign citizens to work on the basis of patents owned by Russian individuals, promotion of territorial mobility of Russian citizens. The maximum effectiveness of the implementation of measures to improve the demographic situation is taken into account in the high scenario of the demographic forecast, on the basis of which a forced version (option 3) of the forecast of the long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation is formed. In this scenario, by 2030, the aggregate birth rate will increase to 1.96, the overall mortality rate will drop to 11.2, and life expectancy will increase to 78 years. According to the high scenario, the migration growth is supposed to be higher than in the average scenario, it will amount to 320-531 thousand people annually and will completely compensate for the natural population decline.
By 2030, the resident population will increase to 151.4 million. Thus, the author concludes, without a demographic forecast, the scientific planning of indicators of the country's socio-economic development and the prediction of geopolitical processes, the calculation of the necessary production of goods and services, the development of infrastructure, housing, education systems, health care and pension provision are impossible.
Conclusion
The national project "Demography" is unprecedented in the new Russian history in terms of costs and the desire to cover a huge field of problems and tasks requiring significant changes in modern economic policy. The authors of the articles note the need for mutually agreed managerial decisions in the project "Demography" with a number of other national projects in connection with their high interdependence. They prove the insufficiency of the already announced measures to achieve the intended goals. The possibility of using the experience of a number of countries that have solved similar problems earlier has been evaluated; the importance of adapting policies to specific needy groups of the population is shown, special attention is paid to the role of scientific research that has been successfully embodied in management practice in the form of programs, special surveys, and the expansion of statistical information as the basis for making adequate and effective decisions by national governments or the European Union. It is shown that the main obstacle in the implementation of a national project may be its internal inconsistency.
Researchers consider it important in the development of the national project "Demography" to separate the financing of family support and the financing of birth promotion, otherwise the project will not bring the expected effect in either family or demographic policy. Therefore, it is impossible to combine such tasks as increasing composition of families, growth of birth rates,
especially in regions with difficult demographic situations, supporting families who decided to give birth to a child, and families with children. Preliminary information on the emerging national project "Demography" leads to the conclusion that its developers, considering the problems of low-income families (households), do not mention two tasks: access to quality health care and providing greater educational opportunities for children from low-income families. Health and education programs as national projects are being developed separately, while it is necessary to combine these tasks and solve not just the problems of health or educational policies, but the problems of poor families, including their health, education, employment, social protection. An analysis of the experience of other countries shows that systematic efforts in these areas reduce poverty and difficulties in the short term and contribute to more positive results in the field of education, health and employment in the long term. These findings help to clarify a number of positions in the national project "Demography" for its greater effectiveness.
The demographic and migration forecasts of the long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation are of particular value. The practical significance of demographic forecasts consists in the fact that, based on scientific research, recommendations are made to the governing bodies about the need to take measures to stabilize or improve the existing demographic situation, take into account population reproduction trends when solving important national economic problems, and make adjustments in conducting demographic policies.
References
1 Azikhanov R.F. Prediction of demographic processes in the Russian Federation / / Modernization processes in modern Russia: Collection of articles of the II International scientific and practical conferences. Penza, 2018. P. 21-23.
2 Tkachenko A.A. State policy and the national project "Demography" / /
Narodonaseleniye [Population]. M., 2018. Vol. 21, No. 4. P. 23-35. 3. Scherbakov A.I. Increasing the birth rate is the main goal of the demographic policy of Russia / / Sotsialno-trudovye issledovaniya [Social and Labor Studies]. M., 2019, T. 36, No. 3. P. 143-152.
IGOR DOBAYEV. THE MECHANISM OF SOCIAL AND POLITICAL MOBILIZATION IN RADICAL ISLAM // The article was written for the bulletin "Russia and the Moslem World."
Keywords: Islam, ideology, Islamism, mobilization, political Islam, radical Islam.
Igor Dobayev,
DSc(Philosophy), Professor, Expert of Russian Academy of Sciences, Director of Center of Regional Studies,
Institute of Sociology and Religion, Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don
Citation: Dobayev I. The Mechanism of Social and Political Mobilization in Radical Islam // Russia and the Moslem World, 2020, No. 2 (308), P. 23-29. DOI: 10.31249/rmw/2020.02.02
Abstract. The article defines the essence of radical Islam (Islamism), and examines in detail the key factors contributing to the mobilization of adherents of Islamism to an uncompromising struggle with the "enemies of Islam" (polytheists, apostates and hypocrites). It seems that these provisions can be used to block Islamism, as the ideological doctrine of radicals.
Radical Islam (Islamism), as an extreme form of political Islam, is a complex and multidimensional socio-political phenomenon. We consider Islamism as an independent phenomenon that cannot be identified with Islam itself or exclusively with any of its versions (Sunnism, Shiism, Harijism) or brands (madhhabs - religious and legal schools in Islam -
