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948 ГОСУДАРСТВЕННАЯ СЛУЖБА 2017 ТОМ 19 № 6
социальная политика
■ DOI: 10.22394/2070-8378-2017-19-6-48-51
демографические тенденции в России в ХХ! веке
сЕргЕй влАдимирович Аргунов, кандидат технических наук, заместитель генерального директора Научно-проектный центр «Развитие города» (Российская Федерация, 129090, Москва, проспект Мира, 19, стр.3). E-mail: s.argunov@dev-city.ru
Юлия викТоровнА когАн, кандидат географических наук, начальник отдела научных исследований Научно-проектный центр «Развитие города» (Российская Федерация, 129090, Москва, проспект Мира, 19, стр.3). E-mail: y.kogan@dev-city.ru
мАКсим ниКолАЕвич нАЗАров, кандидат физико-математических наук, проректор
Российская Академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте Российской Федерации (Российская Федерация, 119571, Москва, проспект Вернадского, 82). E-mail: nazarovmn@rane.ru
Аннотация: в статье анализируются статистические данные, характеризующие демографические тенденции в части динамики изменения доли детского, трудоспособного населения и населения пенсионного возраста. Авторы рассматривают некоторые тенденции изменения численности и структуры населения россии и их влияние на потребление социально-значимых услуг. рассмотрены пиковые показатели различных лет наряду с негативной статистикой. Проведены параллели между статистическими данными разных периодов, намечены прогнозы на основе численности рассматриваемых групп населения. динамика изменения численности населения представлена в виде таблиц и диаграмм, отражающих распределение численности по возрастам в период с 1989 по 2016 гг. отмечена тенденция к увеличению населения пенсионного возраста в ХХ! веке, а также неуклонное снижение доли работоспособного населения, и приведены возможные последствия. На основе данных о темпах рождаемости сделан прогноз об увеличении доли детского населения к 2021 году. Приведена динамика демографических изменений по федеральным округам Российской Федерации. В заключение сделан вывод о необходимости учитывать статистические данные о составе населения при стратегическом планировании и подготовке нормативов градостроительного проектирования объектов социальной инфраструктуры всех уровней. Ключевые слова: демографические процессы, изменения численности населения, структура населения
Аргунов С.В., Коган Ю.В., Назаров М.Н. Демографические тенденции в России в ХХ1 веке. Государственная служба. 2017. № 6. С. 48-51.
demographic trends in russia in the xxi century
sERGEY V. ARGuNoV, Cand. Sci. (Technics) Deputy Director General
Scientific and Project Center 'City Development' (19 str. 3, prosp. Mira, Moscow, Russian Federation, 129090). E-mail: s.argunov@dev-city.ru
YuUYA V. KoGAN, Cand. Sci. (Geographics) Head of Research Department
Scientific and Project Center 'City Development' (19 str. 3, prosp. Mira, Moscow, Russian Federation, 129090). E-mail: y.kogan@dev-city.ru
MAxIM N. NAZARoV, Cand. Sci. (Physics and Mathematics) Vice-rector
The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (82, prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, Russian Federation 119571). E-mail: nazarovmn@rane.ru
Abstract: The article analyzes statistical data characterizing demographic trends in the dynamics of changes in the childrens' population, the able-bodied population and the population of retirement age. The authors consider some trends for changes in the number and structure of the Russian population and their impact on the consumption of socially important services. Peak indicators of various years are considered along with negative statistics. Parallels are drawn between the statistical data of different periods; forecasts based on the number of the population groups in question are outlined. The dynamics of population change is presented in the form of tables and diagrams reflecting the distribution of the population number by age between 1989 and 2016. There is a trend towards an increase in the retirement age population in the 21st century, as well as a steady decline in the proportion of the able-bodied population; possible consequences of this are indicated. On the basis of statistical data on birth rate, a prognosis has been made about an increase in the proportion of the children's population by 2021. The dynamics of demographic changes in the federal districts of the Russian Federation are given. In conclusion, it was noted that in strategic planning and preparation of standards for urban planning of social infrastructure facilities it is necessary to take into account statistical data on population structure. Keywords: demographic processes, population changes, population structure
Argunov S.V., Kogan Y.V., Nazarov M.N. Demographic trends in Russia in the XXI century. Gosudarstvennaya sluzhba. 2017. № 6. P. 48-51.
ГОСУДАРСТВЕННАЯ СЛУЖБА 2017 ТОМ 19 № 6 49
С.В. Аргунов, Ю.В. Коган, М.Н. Назаров. демографические тенденции в россии в ХХХ веке
Introduction
In the beginning of the 21st century in Russia there was a trend of population reduction and decrease in proportion of children of different ages.1 This is generally compatible with the trend - currently, there is a change in demographic dynamics, previously aimed at population growth. The world, as a whole, is on the edge of total depopulation [An-tonov, 2010; Antonov, 2009; Reher, 2007]. The peak of the crisis was in 2008 when the population of Russia reached its minimum of 142748 thousand people, and the structure of children's population has become negative.
Since 2009 there has been a turning point, the population began to increase steadily as well as birth rate and children's population share (Table 1).
The dynamics of population change in 2016
At the same time, in comparison with 2008, in 2016 there were both positive trends (the population grew by 3%, the birth rate increased, and, accordingly, the proportion of children under 9 years of age and the active working age population (2544 years old)), and negative trends for the Russian economy - in the next five years, the proportion of pensioners will continue to increase (and, accordingly, pension payments will increase) and the share of the population aged 25-34 will decrease (and, hence, the birth rate is projected to decrease). [Khvilya-Olinter, 2015].
The data presented in table 2 show that the share of the children's population has almost reached the level of
1 Demographic Yearbook of Russia. 2002: Stat. Coll. / Rosstat M., 2002; Demographic Yearbook of Russia. 2005: Stat. Coll. / Rosstat M., 2005; Demographic Yearbook of Russia. 2006: Stat. Coll. / Rosstat M., 2006; Demographic Yearbook of Russia. 2007: Stat. Coll. / Rosstat M., 2007; Demographic Yearbook of Russia. 2008: Stat. Coll. / Rosstat M., 2008; Demographic Yearbook of Russia. 2009: Stat. Coll. / Rosstat. M., 2009; Demographic Yearbook of Russia. 2010: Stat. Coll. / Rosstat M., 2010; Demographic Yearbook of Russia in 2012: Stat. Coll./ Rosstat M., 2012; Demographic Yearbook of Russia. 2013: Stat. Coll. / Rosstat M., 2013; Demographic Yearbook of Russia. 2014: Stat. Coll. / Rosstat M., 2014; Demographic Yearbook of Russia. 2015: Stat. Coll. / Rosstat M, 2015; The population of the Russian Federation by sex and age as of January 1, 2016 (Statistical bulletin) / Rosstat M.,2016.
table 1. Dynamics of population change by age in 1989-2016 (as of January, 1), %
1989 2002 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Total population 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
including the age, years:
0-4 8,2% 4,4% 5,2% 5,6% 5,9% 6,2% 6,5%
5-9 7,7% 4,8% 4,7% 5,0% 5,1% 5,3% 5,6%
10-14 7,2% 7,2% 4,9% 4,6% 4,6% 4,7% 5,0%
15-19 6,8% 8,8% 7,3% 5,9% 5,3% 4,8% 4,6%
20-24 6,6% 7,9% 8,7% 8,5% 8,1% 6,9% 5,8%
25-29 8,5% 7,3% 8,0% 8,4% 8,6% 8,7% 8,5%
30-34 8,7% 6,8% 7,4% 7,7% 7,8% 8,1% 8,3%
35-39 7,9% 7,0% 6,8% 7,1% 7,3% 7,4% 7,6%
40-44 5,2% 8,6% 6,9% 6,5% 6,5% 6,8% 7,0%
45-49 5,4% 8,0% 8,4% 7,5% 7,0% 6,4% 6,3%
50-54 6,5% 6,9% 7,7% 8,0% 8,1% 7,8% 7,1%
55-59 5,7% 3,7% 6,7% 7,0% 7,1% 7,4% 7,6%
60-64 5,7% 5,5% 3,5% 5,5% 5,9% 6,2% 6,4%
65-69 3,1% 4,4% 4,7% 2,8% 2,7% 3,7% 5,0%
70 and older 6,6% 8,6% 9,2% 9,9% 10,1% 9,5% 8,9%
Table 2. The dynamics of changes in the share of children, working-age population and the population of retirement age in 1989-2016. (as of January, 1), %
1989 2002 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Men and women 0-15 24,5% 18,1% 16,0% 16,2% 16,5% 17,2% 18,0%
Men 16-59, women 16-54 Men 60 and older, women 55 and older 57,0% 18,5% 61,3% 20,5% 62,9% 21,1% 61,6% 22,2% 60,9% 22,7% 59,3% 23,5% 57,5% 24,6%
2002, but it is significantly inferior to the level of 1989.
It should be noted that the proportion of the retirement age population has steadily increased in the XX1 century and reached its number 24.6%. This corresponds to the European demographic trends.
the able-bodied population trends
The share of the able-bodied population, having reached a peak in 2007, has been steadily declining. Given the emerging demographic trends, it may drop to 53% by 2021 [Arkhangelskiy, 2016]. Thus, for 15 years from 2007, it can be reduced by 10% in absolute numbers. This entails a sharp narrowing of the tax base and increasing the burden on the budget due to pension payments and the implementation of medical guarantees. It is curious to consider how the share of the children's population under 4 years old shifts - as
50
ГОСУДАРСТВЕННАЯ СЛУЖБА 2017 ТОМ 19 № 6
СОЦИАЛЬНАЯ ПОЛИТИКА
Table 3. The dynamics of changes in the proportion of children under 4 years old in 1979-2008 (as of January, 1), %
under 1 1
2
3
4
1989 1,58%
67% 68% 61% 64%
2002
0,91%
0,87%
0,84%
0,89%
0,87%
2008 1,13%
2010 1,23%
03% 02% 05% 03%
2012 1,25%
20% 12% 03% 02%
2014 1,31%
2016 1,32%
16% 17% 17% 11%
Figure 1. The dynamics of population change in Russia by age in 2016 in comparison with 2008
Figure 2. The dynamics of changes in the proportion of children in the federal districts of the Russian Federation
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there will be a need to increase the amount of kindergartens and schools.
the most characteristic indicator of future structural changes (Table 3).
Analyzing these tables we see that if the birth rate is maintained at the level of 2014-2016, it is possible to predict an increase in the share of children under 15 years old in the Russian Federation as a whole to 20% by 2021. And
The dynamics of demographic changes in the federal districts
Let us consider the dynamics of demographic changes in the federal districts of the Russian Federation.
..... i .,^4%
Trends in the proportion of children, working-age population and the population of retirement age in the federal districts of the Russian Federation are shown in Figures 2-4.
In Figure 2, there is a single trend - a decline before 2005, stabilization and a gradual increase (from 20092011) of the proportion of children in the population structure in all federal districts.
A sharp decline in the population of children in the Southern Federal District is due to the separation of the North-Caucasian Federal District from it. It should be noted that with general trends, for different federal districts there should be different standards for the provision of DMS, schools and children's hospitals. The North-Caucasian Federal District is particularly prominent. At the same time, the minimum indicators characterize the European part of the Russian Federation (Central and North-Western Federal Districts).
Figure 3 clearly shows the tendency - an increase before 2005, stabilization and irregular decline (from 2008-2009) of the proportion of working age people in the population structure in all federal districts.
Figure 4 shows that the dynamics of changes in the proportion of people older than working age in the population structure of the federal districts is not so simple. But it is possible to mark out a general trend - an increase in the proportion of persons of retirement age [Tsapenko, 2017]. At the same time, it is necessary to single out a sharp increase in the proportion of the retirement age population in the Far Eastern Federal District.
Conclusion
Given data indicate significant, regular changes in the structure of the population of the Russian Federation,
ГОСУДАРСТВЕННАЯ СЛУЖБА 2017 ТОМ 19 № 6 51
C.B. Аргунов, Ю.В. Коган, М.Н. Назаров. Демографические тенденции в России в XXI веке
which in the near future should primarily affect the economy of our country, and should also be taken into account when preparing strategic planning documents at all levels. Particular attention to the population structure should be given in preparation of urban planning standards for the design of social infrastructure at all levels.
Figure 3. the dynamics of changes in the proportion of the able-bodied population in the federal districts of the Russian Federation
References:
Antonov A. I. Modern demographic trends and analytical forecasts, problems of family and demographic policy in the social state. Vestnik Moskovskogo univer-siteta. Seriya 18 Sotsiologiya i politologi-ya. 2010. № 4. Pp. 134-150.
Antonov A.I. Demography in the era of depopulation. Demographic research. Summary of articles. Effective editor Antonov A. A. Moscow: KDU, 2009. P. 292.
Arkhangelskiy V.N., Elizarov V.V. Demographic forecasts in modern Russia: Analysis of results and the choice of hypotheses. Nauchnye trudy: Institut ekonomichesk-ogo prognozirovaniya RAN. Moscow: MAX Press, 2016. Pp. 524-545.
Reher, David S. Towards long-term population decline: A discussion of relevant issues. European Journal of Population/ Revue européenne de Démographie. 2007. Vol. 23, №2, Pp. 189-207.
Tsapenko I. Socio-economic outlines of the society of long-term. Mirovaya ekonomi-ka i mezhdunarodnyye otnosheniya. 2017. Vol. 61. № 5. Pp. 34-44.
Khvilya-Olinter N.A. Demographic state of modern Russia. Sotsial'naya zhizn' i vlast'. 2015. № 4 (54). Pp. 15-23.
Figure 4. the dynamics of changes in the proportion of the retirement age population in the federal districts of the russian Federation
официально
Новые меры поддержки семей с детьми
28 ноября 2017 года Владимир Путин провёл в Кремле заседание Координационного совета по реализации Национальной стратегии действий в интересах детей. На нем были намечены новые меры поддержки семей - многодетных и с первенцем.
Президент подчеркнул, что сегодня необходимо принять комплекс мер, которые позволят не допустить снижения численности населения России. Нужна активная последовательная работа по всем направлениям: и по снижению смертности, и по стимулированию рождаемости -
фактически нам нужно перезагрузить нашу политику демографического развития.
В.В. Путин отметил: «На первый план выходит поддержка многодетных семей, семей со скромными доходами, создание дополнительных стимулов для рождения второго и третьего ребёнка.
Необходимо также уделять особое внимание молодым семьям. Это, как правило, и есть семьи с небольшими доходами, ведь это молодые люди, которые либо ещё учатся, либо только вступили в трудовую деятельность, доходы очень скромные, как правило. Это часто сдерживает рождение первого ребёнка, появление первенца».
Он предложил с января 2018 года начать реализацию целого ряда новых мер поддержки российских семей, в том числе установить ежемесячную денежную выплату, которая будет предоставляться при рождении первого ребёнка и выплачиваться до достижения им полутора лет. Сумма выплаты будет исчисляться из размера прожиточного минимума ребёнка в субъекте Российской Федерации.
По итогам заседания были даны поручения Президента.
Источник: http://kremlin.ru/events/ president/news/
