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OEO-ECONOMICS
Leo CHIKAVA
D.Sc. (Econ.), professor, corresponding member of the Georgian Academy of Sciences, honored worker of science, president of the Georgian Academy of Economic Sciences, president of Gugushvili University (Tbilisi, Georgia).
DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH CAUCASIAN COUNTRIES: CURRENT TRENDS AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
A b s
Demographic development in the South Caucasian countries (Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia) is characterized both by common regularities and by specific features. The deterioration in demographic development and emergence of negative trends in reproduction of the population are common traits for these states. Nevertheless, the differences in the countries’ demographic behavior and divergence in the main demographic indices draw attention to them-
r a c t
selves. These differences are caused primarily by the fact that the South Caucasian states make their transition from the traditional to the contemporary type of population reproduction at different times, as well as by religious convictions, traditions, customs, socioeconomic conditions, and so on. An active state demographic policy drawn up with regional and country specifics in mind can play a significant role in regulating the demographic processes.
I n t r o d u c t i o n
Demography occupies a central place among the urgent global problems arousing the concern of mankind today. In the most general terms, the demographic problem implies difficulties related to population overproduction in the relatively underdeveloped regions of the world and to depopulation in the developed states.
In this respect, the Southern Caucasus is no exception. Population reproduction in the region’s countries is characterized both by common regularities and by specific features. One common regularity is the deterioration in the demographic situation and the onset of negative trends in population reproduction. The specific features include demographic behavior, which differs slightly in each state, and the variance in main demographic indices. This conclusion is based to a significant extent on a scientific analysis of the phenomena and processes that have occurred since the 1990s and are still occurring in the South Caucasian countries, as well as on a summary of the obtained results.
Birth Rate
As we know, one of the main components in population reproduction is the birth rate. Calculated per thousand residents, in 1990, it was 26.3 in Azerbaijan, 22.5 in Armenia, and 17 in Georgia,1 and in 2006, 17, 13, and 12, respectively.2
There is a clear trend not only toward a drop in the birth rate, but also toward its leveling out in each country, although the difference between Azerbaijan, on the one hand, and Armenia and Georgia, on the other, is still significant. How can this circumstance be explained? Primarily by the fact that the South Caucasian countries transferred at different times from the traditional to the contemporary type of population reproduction. This means that under the influence of a whole series of relatively new phenomena (a higher level of women’s education and employment, greater requirements relating to children’s intellectual upbringing, etc.), there is a decrease in demand for children in the family, while use of the latest methods of contraception makes it relatively easy to achieve family planning. The demographic transition, or establishment of the contemporary type of population reproduction, began in Georgia almost an entire century earlier than in Azerbaijan. This is also evidenced by the reproductive behavior of the Azeris living in Georgia, which differs from that of the native Georgians. According to the Statistics Board of the Georgian Ministry of Economic Development, in 2004, the overall birth rate in the country was 11.5 per mille for Georgians and 16.1 for Azeris.3
The religious factor also plays a significant role in this variance of birth rate indices in terms of ethnic groups. In contrast to Russian Orthodoxy, Islam more convincingly impresses on women that abortion is a great sin and so should be avoided.
An extremely important demographic index is the cumulative birth rate (number of children per woman throughout the fertile period). The trend toward its decrease is a governing law accompanying the development of human civilization. In this respect, the Southern Caucasus is no exception. Nevertheless, these indices are just as differentiated in terms of country. According to the data of the World Population Bureau in Washington, U.S.A. (2006), the cumulative birth rate is 2 in Azerbaijan
1 See: Commonwealth of Independent States in 1996.Statistical Yearbook, Moscow, 1997, p. 14.
2 The latest (2006) demographic data used in the article were taken from World Population Data Sheet. 2006 Population Reference Bureau.
3 See: G. Tsuladze, N. Maglaperidze, A. Vadachkoria, Demograficheskiy ezhegodnik Gruzii—2004, Tbilisi, 2005,
p. 177.
(or 200 children per 100 women), 1.7 in Armenia, and 1.4 in Georgia, while this index must be 2.1 (or an average of 210 children per 100 women) in order to ensure even simple population reproduction. In this way, judging by the current rates, not one South Caucasian republic is able to ensure population reproduction at an increasingly progressive rate, although in this respect, the situation in Armenia and in Azerbaijan, in particular, is slightly better than in Georgia.
The drop in the cumulative birth rate is not only a South Caucasian phenomenon. The average cumulative birth rate in the developed regions of the world does not exceed 1.6, and in some countries it is even lower. For example, this index is 1.1 in South Korea and Taiwan, 1.2 in Ukraine, Belarus, and Slovenia, and 1.3 in Japan, Germany, Russia, Italy, Lithuania, Latvia, Bulgaria, Rumania, Greece, Moldova, and Slovakia.
Sociological polls have established that in the developing countries quite a large number of women give birth to many more children than they would like. For example, in Kenya, women of reproductive age would like to have an average of 4.2 children, but in actual fact give birth to 6.5. This shows that the contemporary type of population reproduction is not functioning in this country, which means family planning is non-existent and contraceptives are not used.
An entirely opposite picture is seen in Georgia and Armenia in terms of the ratio between the desired and actual number of children born. In Georgia, for example, families usually have one child less than the number they would like, i.e. a family would like to have three children, but in actual fact has no more than one or two. The survey respondents indicate that the difficult social conditions are the main reason for this. The fact that even the desired number of children in a family has drastically dropped is just as alarming; that is, the demand for children has abruptly fallen.
Sociological polls revealed that at the beginning of the 1980s, the number of children wanted in Georgian families was enough for albeit insignificant, but nevertheless extended population reproduction, but the actual number of children anticipated was not enough to ensure even simple reproduction. As of today, not only the anticipated, but also the desired number of children does not ensure it, which requires an in-depth scientific study and efficient measures.
Death Rate
Along with the birth rate, the population reproduction rate is also determined by the death rate. As mankind evolves, this index has significantly declined due to the elimination of mass epidemics, the development of state-of-the-art medication, the improvement of medical services, and several other progressive changes. Despite this, however, according to 2006 data, it is still high, both on average throughout the world (9%) and in Armenia (10.6%), as well as in Georgia (11.8%). In this respect, Azerbaijan (5.5%) is the only exception among the South Caucasian states, which is apparently due to the incomplete study carried out.
In contrast to the overall ratio, the infant death rate (the number of children who die before the age of one) is more specific. This is, of course, a very important parameter, which can justifiably be called one of the significant indices of social development as a whole. The degree of development of the social and health care systems in particular countries and regions is basically judged precisely by its level.
What is the situation in this respect in the Southern Caucasus? In 2006, 9 out of every thousand newborns died before they reached the age of one in Azerbaijan, 26 in Armenia, and 25 in Georgia.
Several comparisons can be made for interpreting these indices (that is, to determine whether they are high or, on the contrary, low). In 2006, an average of 52 out of every thousand newborns throughout the world died before reaching the age of one, whereby this index reached an average of 57 in the developing countries, and 6 in the developed states. This index is the highest in Africa
(84%), followed by Asia (49%) and Latin America (25%), while a relatively low level of infant deaths is noted in Europe and North America (7%). With respect to individual countries, the lowest infant fatality rate was observed in Singapore (2.1%), Sweden (2.4%), Japan (2.8%), Finland (3%), France (3.6%), Germany (3.9%), etc., which shows that there are enormous untapped reserves for improving the situation in the Southern Caucasus.
Natural Population Increment
It is known that the natural population increment depends primarily on the ratio of the birth rate to the death rate. When the first is stable and higher than the second for quite a long time, extended population reproduction is usually guaranteed, and vice versa. If more people die than are born, all other things being equal, depopulation is inevitable, which is the only natural absolute reduction in the size of population. Due to the fact that the birth rate has sharply dropped in the South Caucasian countries since the beginning of the 1990s, and the overall death rate has hardly changed, the natural population increment has significantly dropped. Compared with 1990, in 2006 it dropped from 20.2 to 11 per mille in Azerbaijan, from 16.3 to 4 in Armenia, while in Georgia not only the increment ceased, but depopulation essentially began.
In order to better understand the demographic situation in the Southern Caucasus, let us take a look at the data for different zones and countries of the world. At present (according to the data for 2006), the natural population increment (calculated per thousand people) amounts to 12 people on average for the entire planet, reaching 15 in the developing regions, while it is only 1 in the developed world. Obvious depopulation is occurring in Germany, Bulgaria, Rumania, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova.
Review of the natural movement of the population from the ethnic angle shows quite a sharp contrast in indices. For example, according to the Statistics Board of the Georgian Ministry of Economic Development, in 2004, the natural increase in Azeris living in Georgia was equal to 10.6 per mille, while the Georgian and Armenian ethnic groups experienced depopulation: they decreased to minus 0.3 and minus 0.1 per mille, respectively.4
This in no way means that the population increment among Azeris in Georgia (where their share in 2005 amounted to 5.4%) is higher than in their historical homeland. Their reproductive behavior is almost the same in Georgia and Azerbaijan. What is the reason for such a significant difference in the reproductive behavior of Georgians and Azeris?
Along with the fact that they are at different levels of demographic development (as was mentioned above), we believe the reason for this should be sought in customs, religiousness, and traditions. In contrast to other South Caucasian countries, Georgia is experiencing the acute problem not of the birth of third and subsequent children, but of the birth of the second child. For example, in 2004, the percentage of first and second children amounted to 88.5% among the total number of live-born children, whereas the percentage of third and subsequent children reached 11.5%, which indicates an increase in the number of families with small numbers of children. As the results of a sociological poll conducted in 2003 by the Georgian Institute of Demography and Sociology show, 1% of the respondents believe that one child is the desirable number of children in a family, 20% think two, 52% indicate three, and only 27% believe more than three to be desirable. Even more alarming is the fact that due to the difficult social conditions (primarily among the refugees from Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali District), the birth of the first child and even matrimony itself are often postponed for some time, the
4 See: G. Tsuladze, et al., op. cit., p. 177.
negative consequences of which will become even more obvious in the future when today’s children reach maturity.
The sharp drop in the marriage index also shows the negative demographic trends that have developed in the Southern Caucasus. Compared with 1990, in 1996, the number of marriages decreased from 10.5 to 5.1 per mille in Azerbaijan, from 8 to 3.8 per mille in Armenia, and from 6.7 to 3.6 per mille in Georgia. As for the number of divorces, this index is lower than 1 per mille in all the states of the region: this indicates the relative soundness of families.
According to the estimates of the World Population Bureau, the theoretical prospects for population reproduction in the Southern Caucasus are the following: compared with 2006, by 2050 the size of Azerbaijan’s population will increase by 36.5% and reach 11.6 million people, in Armenia it will increase by 13% and amount to 3.4 million, and in Georgia it will decrease by 1.4 million people, giving a total of 3 million people. As a result of this, the correlation of South Caucasian countries in terms of population size will significantly change: Azerbaijan’s share will grow to 64.4%, Armenia’s to 18.9%, and Georgia’s will decrease to 16.7%, while in 1960, this breakdown looked as follows: Azerbaijan—39.2%, Armenia—18.6%, and Georgia—42.2%.
Population reproduction and the increase in population size is not a panacea. This problem is particularly urgent for those nations that are experiencing depopulation (or are on its verge) and which, although in the distant future, are threatened with extinction. Despite this, population overproduction (bringing the size of the population in the Southern Caucasus up to 60 million, for example) is not simply undesirable, it is fraught with no fewer problems than depopulation. An optimal demographic situation should be strived for. This implies a population size that will make it possible for one generation to replace the next, rational use of productive material resources, balancing labor resources with jobs, maximum efficiency of production, complete satisfaction of the reasonable material and cultural requirements of society as a whole and each of its members individually, as well as free and all-round development of the individual. We are stressing this because more importance should be placed on the qualitative, rather than the quantitative side of the demographic processes, with an effort to raise physically and spiritually healthy generations capable of achieving peace and universal prosperity in the region.
Demographic Ageing
A particularly important process is demographic ageing. It is considered one of the major dilemmas of the present day, and rightly so. U.N. experts offer a classification system based on a three-tier scale: if the percentage of people aged 65 and older in the total population is lower than 4%, it is considered young, if it is between 4% and 7%, it is on the verge of old age, and if it is higher than 7%, it is considered elderly.5
According to the data of World Population Bureau for 2006, Azerbaijan is presently on the verge of old age (7%), while Armenia (11%) and particularly Georgia (13%) are considered countries with a demographically elderly population. The population is ageing under the effect of two components, the low birth rate (“ageing from below”), on the one hand, and the relatively high life expectancy (“ageing from above”), on the other.
Data have already been presented above that show the low birth rate and its continuing decrease in certain states. As for the average life expectancy in the South Caucasian countries, it is 71-72 years, while in relatively underdeveloped countries of the world it does not exceed an average of 65 years (including in South Africa, where it is 46). Along with the high birth rate, it is this that largely explains the fact that the developing regions of the planet are demographically younger. The share of the population aged 65 and older constitutes only 5% in the states of this group.
5 See: Demographic Encyclopedic Dictionary, Moscow, 1985, p. 117.
The percentage of the young generation (people under 15) varies quite significantly in the South Caucasian countries. As a result of the still high birth rate, this index looks quite impressive in Azerbaijan (24%) and Armenia (22%), and a little more modest in Georgia (19%).
Demographic ageing is a law governing contemporary social development. According to the current forecast data, in the foreseeable future, most of the developed countries of the world will become demographically elderly (for example, by 2050, the percentage of the population aged 65 and older will reach 28% in Germany and Belgium, 30% in Austria and Switzerland, 34% in Greece, and 37% in Spain, etc.),6 but rich (high pensions, comfortable living conditions, and so on), and most of the developing countries will be demographically young, but poor. As for the South Caucasian republics, Armenia and Georgia drop out of this context, since they are at the stage of demographic ageing and will be relatively poor for quite a long time. For example, according to the data of the World Bank for 2005, the gross national income converted according to the parity purchasing power amounted to $5,080 in Armenia, $4,890 in Azerbaijan, and $3,270 in Georgia.7 Despite the rather dynamic economic growth observed in recent years, the South Caucasian countries have still not reached the average world level of per capita GDP, which constitutes $10,000 (2006). According to the CIA, in 2006, per capita GDP, converted according to PPP, amounted to $7,300 in Azerbaijan, $5,400 in Armenia, and $3,800 in Georgia.8
The following can be noted by way of trends that have developed in the South Caucasian states (primarily in Georgia and Armenia) with respect to population reproduction and are giving rise to negative socioeconomic consequences:
—the sharp increase in the sociodemographic load on employed able-bodied citizens, which creates a generation gap leading to tension and opposition. What is more, a negative trend is observed toward a gradual decrease in the percentage of children under 15 and an increase in the share of pensioners, which intensifies the sociodemographic load on the working population;
—the increase in economic load on the employed. This is caused not only by the fact that the number and share of pensioners are systematically growing in the population as a whole, but also by the fact that their needs (what is more, specific) are increasing inexorably, which is expressed both in qualitative and in quantitative parameters. It should be noted that medical services are approximately ten times more expensive for a 75-year-old citizen than for a 40-year-old patient. Due to this, specialists consider ageing of the population to be a high-cost phenomenon;
—the intensive death rate at the able-bodied age and increase in foreign migration are leading to incomplete use of the countries’ economic potential and an increase in the underproduced gross domestic product.
A scientifically developed active state demographic policy that takes the specifics of the country into account can make a significant contribution to halting and gradually overcoming the abovementioned and other similar socioeconomic processes.
6 See: A. Topilin, Demograficheskaia situatsiia v stranakh SNG (k 10-letiiu obrazovaniia sodruzhestva), Naselenie i obshchestvo—Information Bulletin of the Center of Demography and Economy of Man, RAS Institute of National Economic Forecasting, No. 61, April 2002.
7 See: [http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GNIPC.pdf].
8 See: CIA—The World Factbook, Rank Order, GDP per capita (PPP), available at: [https://www.cia.gov/cia/pub-lications/factbook/rankorder/2004rank.html].
