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CURRENT TRENDS IN THE RUSSIAN BANKING SECTOR: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
M.Y. Pasetskaya, graduate student
Research supervisor: D.V. Burakov, candidate of economic sciences, associate professor Financial university under the Government of Russian Federation (Russia, Moscow)
DOI: 10.24411/2411-0450-2019-10652
Abstract. In recent years, the Russian banking market has experienced threats to financial stability from external factors. The changes were influenced by the mega-regulator and international organizations. This paper analyzes the market of banking services in terms of characteristics of quantitative indicators to determine the overall picture of the current state of the banking sector.
Keywords: banking market, stability, economic growth, quantitative and qualitative indicators.
The Russian financial market is bank-oriented. Historically, it is the banking system that takes the dominant, determining place in the Russian financial market and, accordingly, determines the majority of consumer preferences. Therefore, the banking sector and the banking system require special attention both from the credit institutions themselves and from the state.
In recent years, the Bank of Russia has been carefully monitoring the activities of credit institutions and other financial market participants and Stripping them of unscrupulous participants. Thus, in the last 10 years, the number of banks operating in the market has decreased more than twice. Against the background of health procedures carried out by the Bank of Russia in the banking sector, the credit institutions themselves were engaged in the optimization of their organizational structure.
The number of credit institutions with the participation of non-residents in the authorized capital decreased during the same period: from 221 on 01.01.2009 to 150 on 01.10.2019 (more than 30%), but their share increased: as of 01.10.2009 the share of banks with the participation of non-residents in the authorized capital was 29.53% (almost a third of the banking market).
Considering the data on participation in the capital of banks, the basis is credit institutions with state participation, their share is growing: the share of such banks is almost two-
thirds of the total capital. At the same time, it is only nineteen banks. Then there are private banks with a capital of more than one billion rubles (a fifth of them are 204 credit institutions), then non-resident banks (about 12% of total capital - 72 banks) [1]. Thus, we can conclude that more than 70% of the total capital of the Russian banking sector is in the hands of a small number of banks with state participation. Almost all the rest of the capital (slightly more than a percent of the total capital of the banking sector is made up of smaller banks) is accounted for by large banks, including those with foreign capital. This indicates a fairly high level of concentration of Bank capital in the market and raises the question of the competitive conditions of the banking environment.
Indicators of concentration of the Russian banking business can be correlated with the countries of the European Union, or rather they are at the level of the middle of the list. The share of the five largest credit institutions of Russia in the assets of the banking sector on 01.01.2009 - 60.4% (compared to 01.01.2018 - 55.8%, on 01.01.2017 - 55.3%). While in 19 EU countries it is much higher [2]: Greece - 97.3%, Estonia - 88%, Lithuania - 87.1% - the maximum concentration; Luxembourg - 27.6%, Germany - 31.4%, Austria - 34.5%. In the US, this figure is 43%. Developing countries are characterized by a significant spread in the share of the
largest banks [3]: India - 36%, China - 37%, Brazil - 82%.
From 01.01.2009 new accounting standards came into force - IFRS 9, which changed the Chart of accounts, the principles of accounting for basic operations, the principles of reservation, as well as a number of adjustments - all this affected the size and structure of the balance sheet.
During the first month of 2019, assets decreased by 2.08 trillion rubles, and this was facilitated by a change in accounting approaches, rather than impairment, including loans. The volume of the total loan portfolio also decreased in January this year - by 1.49 trillion rubles. However, if we do not take into account the adjustments and revaluation under IFRS 9, we can talk about the growth
30,00%
of the main components of the loan portfolio. In addition, at the beginning of 2019, the trend that developed in 2018 - the growth of corporate and retail portfolios (growth of loans to non-financial organizations by 0.8% and individuals - by 1.3%) remained. The volume of interbank lending increased during the month - by 1.9% to residents and by 14% (by RUB 0.15 trillion) to non-residents, mainly due to subsidiary non-resident banks. At the same time, loans to resident financial institutions decreased by 0.9% [4].
Since lending is the basis of banking business, let's look at the dynamics of credit growth in the economy, in particular provided to non-financial organizations and the population. Below is a figure that illustrates the semi-annual growth of the respective loans.
20,00%
10,00%
0,00%
-10,00%
Figure 1. Semi-annual growth rates of loans in the economy, % [5]
Dynamics of areas of lending more calm that smooths and loans in general. In recent years, we see that credit growth is gaining a positive trend and gradually increasing. From this it can be concluded that the situation on the credit market is stabilizing, the rapid growth of lending is among the population.
Another important indicator for the quantitative characteristics of the banking market is
the weighted average interest rate. The chart below shows the dynamics of weighted average lending rates for a period of more than a year for individuals and legal entities in rubles and dollars, as well as the dynamics of the key rate of the Bank of Russia (until 01.01.2016 the refinancing rate).
25,00% 20,00% 15,00% 10,00%
O^a^a^OO^^^rNrNMM^^^LnLntDtDtDr^r^OOOOO^ 0001111111111111111111111 0000000000000000000000000
Figure 2. Dynamics of weighted average interest rates on loans for a period of more than a year to individuals and legal entities in different currencies (reference is given the dynamics of the
key rate of the Bank of Russia)
Of course, the highest values have a weighted average rate on loans to individuals in rubles. In our opinion, this can be attributed to the fact that the risk of non-return is, on average, higher among the population than among non-financial organizations. The assurance and guarantee of repayment of the loan businesses can serve as proceeds, movable and immovable property, reputation, size of business, etc. A particular individual has such a guarantee only salary, because the property and solvent environment may not be at all. From the point of view of the currency aspect, in recent years the level of foreign
currency loans has fallen due to the fall of the ruble exchange rate, its instability and strong volatility. Also, on the chart you can see that correlate with each other ruble weighted average rates for individuals and legal entities Correlates with them and the dynamics of the key rate from January 1, 2016.
The key rate undoubtedly affects the weighted average rates on loans, but not directly, but through the behavioral aspect.
Let's look at the dynamics of the debt burden, which is mainly characterized by the ratio of loans to GDP.
80,00%
40,00% -
30,00% -
20,00% -
10,00% -
0,00% -
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Figure 3. Credit to GDP in Russia, %
The graph shows that the highest value of the indicator was in 2015 - about 70%. The negative impact on economic growth is more than 90-100 %. In Russia, it is much lower, and in recent years the dynamics of this indicator has a negative slope. Thus, we see a decrease in the level of debt burden in the Russian economy.
By changing the share of credit in GDP, the depth of the credit market can be meas-
References
1. Report on the development of the banking sector and banking supervision in 2017. [Electronic resource] - access Mode: https://www.cbr.ru/Content/Document/File/48160/bsr_2017.pdf
2. Official website of the European Central Bank [Electronic resource] - Access mode: https://www.ecb.europa.eu
3. Bis report on structural changes in the banking sector in the post-crisis period [Electronic resource] - access Mode: https://www.bis.org/publ/cgfs60.pdf
4. Information and analytical material of the Bank of Russia "On the development of the banking sector of the Russian Federation in 2018 and January 2019 [Electronic resource] - access Mode: http://cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/15714/razv_bs_18-19_01.pdf
5. Official website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation [Electronic resource] - Access mode: https://www.cbr.ru/
6. Andryushin S. A., Kuznetsova V. V. Credit depth of the Russian banking sector [Electronic resource] - Access mode: http://naukarus.com/kreditnaya-glubina-bankovskogo-sektora-rossii
ured. Russia has the potential to reap all the benefits and advantages in a deepening credit market. According to some studies [6], there is a nonlinear relationship between economic growth and the depth of the credit market. This is because the effect of deepening the credit market on economic growth is long-term.
СОВРЕМЕННЫЕ ТРЕНДЫ В РОССИЙСКОМ БАНКОВСКОМ СЕКТОРЕ:
ЭМПИРИЧЕСКИЙ АНАЛИЗ
М.Ю. Пасецкая, магистрант
Научный руководитель: Д.В. Бураков, канд. экон. наук, доцент Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации (Россия, г. Москва)
Аннотация. В последние годы российский банковский рынок испытывал угрозы финансовой стабильности со стороны внешних факторов. Оказывали воздействия изменения со стороны мегарегулятора и международных организаций. В данной работе анализируется рынок банковских услуг с точки зрения характеристики количественных и качественных показателей для определения общей картины текущего состояния банковской сферы.
Ключевые слова: банковский рынок, стабильность, экономический рост, количественные и качественные показатели.
