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CORONAVIRUS IMPACT ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN SOUTH ASIAN COUNTRIES ECONOMIES (A CASE STUDY OF AFGHANISTAN)
MAHFOOZ ARIANIBNI MOHAMMAD TAHER Second year economy master student of Termez state university Email: mahfooz. arian@gmail.com
Abstract: The coronavirus epidemic, which was first perceived in China, has infected people in 185 countries across the world. Outbreak of corona virus caused various restrictions on exports which were imposed by 95 countries. The main aim of this study is to find out the effect of COVID-19 on international trade in SAARC economies with prime focus on Afghanistan. As the world merchandise trade volume decreased by 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2020. The export growth was -1.0% in case of North America and for Asia was -2.2%. The forecasted GDP growth rate for 2020 is -4.5% and 3.0% for 2021. The World Bank recently warned that South Asia faces its worst economic performance in 40 years due to the coronavirus pandemic. Afghanistan's economy has been badly affected by the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus, owing to negative impacts on consumption, exports, and remittances. The economy is expected to contract by up to four percent in 2020. The products with greatest export potential from Afghanistan to World are Lac; natural gums (excl gum arabic), resins, balsams, etc., Figs, fresh or dried, and Grapes, dried. Figs, fresh or dried shows the largest absolute difference between potential and actual exports in value terms, leaving room to realize additional exports worth $123.6 MN.
Keywords: COVID-19, International Trade, SAARC, Coronavirus, export, Afghanistan.
Аннотация: Эпидемия коронавируса, которая впервые возникла в Китае, заразила людей в 185 странах мира. Вспышка вируса короны вызвала различные ограничения на экспорт, которые наложили 95 стран. Основная цель этого исследования - выяснить влияние COVID-19 на международную торговлю в странах СААРК с уделением особого внимания Афганистану. Поскольку объем мировой торговли товарами в четвертом квартале 2020 года снизился на 1,2%. Рост экспорта составил -1,0% в случае Северной Америки, а для Азии - -2,2%. Прогнозируемые темпы роста ВВП на 2020 год составляют -4,5% и 3,0% на 2021 год. Всемирный банк недавно предупредил, что Южная Азия столкнется с худшими экономическими показателями за 40 лет из-за пандемии коронавируса. Экономика Афганистана сильно пострадала от вспышки вируса COVID-19 из-за негативного воздействия на потребление, экспорт и денежные переводы. Ожидается, что в 2020 году экономика
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сократится до четырех процентов. Продукты с наибольшим экспортным потенциалом из Афганистана в мир - это Lac; камеди натуральные (кроме гуммиарабика), смолы, бальзамы и т. д., инжир, свежий или сушеный, и виноград, сушеный. Инжир, свежий или сушеный, показывает самую большую абсолютную разницу между потенциальным и фактическим экспортом в стоимостном выражении, оставляя место для реализации дополнительного экспорта на сумму 123,6 млн долларов.
Ключевые слова: COVID-19, международная торговля, СААРК, коронавирус, экспорт, Афганистан.
Annotatsiya: Xitoyda birinchi marta ko'rilgan koronavirus epidemiyasi dunyoning 185 mamlakatidagi odamlarni yuqtirgan. Korona virusi tarqalishi 95 mamlakat tomonidan eksportga turli cheklovlarni keltirib chiqardi. Ushbu tadqiqotning asosiy maqsadi COVID-19 ning Afg'onistonga e'tibor qaratgan holda SAARC iqtisodiyotidagi xalqaro savdoga ta'sirini aniqlashdir. Jahon tovar savdosi hajmi 2020yilning to'rtinchi choragida 1,2% ga kamaydi. Eksport o'sishi Shimoliy Amerika uchun -1,0% ni, Osiyo uchun esa -2,2% ni tashkil etdi. Yalpi ichki mahsulotning o'sish sur'atlari 2020 yilga -4,5% va 2021 yilga nisbatan 3,0% ni tashkil qiladi. Jahon banki yaqinda Janubiy Osiyo koronavirus pandemiyasi tufayli so'nggi 40 yil ichidagi eng yomon iqtisodiy ko'rsatkichlarga duch kelishi haqida ogohlantirdi. Afg'oniston iqtisodiyotiga iste'mol, eksport va pul o'tkazmalariga salbiy ta'sir ko'rsatishi sababli COVID-19 virusi tarqalishi yomon ta'sir ko'rsatdi. 2020 yilda iqtisodiyotning to'rt foizga qisqarishi kutilmoqda. Afg'onistondan dunyoga eksport salohiyati katta bo'lgan mahsulotlar - Lak; tabiiy saqichlar (arab tilidan tashqari), qatronlar, balzam va boshqalar, anjir, yangi yoki quritilgan va uzum. Yangi yoki quritilgan anjirpotentsial va real eksport o'rtasidagi eng katta mutlaq farqni qiymat jihatidan ko'rsatadi va 123,6 million dollarlik qo'shimcha eksportni amalga oshirishga imkon beradi.
Kalit so'zlar: COVID-19, Xalqaro savdo, SAARC, Koronavirus, eksport, Afg'oniston.
The coronavirus epidemic, which was first perceived in China, has infected people in 195 countries across the world. Its spread has adversely affected the societies and economies on various fronts, which creates uncertainty and due to uncertainty companies forced to shift from permanent employees towards contractual workforce. The coronavirus outbreak is also responsible for the generation of gig economy. This also encouraged the concept of work from home and created a new normal and may also lead to change the entire working environment. The enforcement of physical distancing, lockdowns and other measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led consumers to incline
INTRODUCTION
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towards online shopping, use of social media, video conferencing and streaming of films. Outbreak of corona virus caused various restrictions on exports which were imposed by 95 countries. Some figure describes that world merchandise trade volumes decreased by 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2020. The export growth was -1.0% in case of North America and for Asia it was -2.2%. In another Figure depicts that import growth was -2.5% for North America and for Asia this -0.4 per cent.
SAARC: The World Bank recently warned that South Asia faces its worst economic performance in 40 years due to the coronavirus pandemic. The difficulties implicated in preventive domestic transmission of COVID-19 in South Asia are massive. South Asia has some of the highest population densities in the world, particularly in urban areas. This makes infectivity easier, particularly among the most susceptible people: slum residents and domestic migrant workers. These people also have less access to basic necessities required for livelihood and to health services. The basic facility of sanitization and water is also lacking in these areas. This time the economic crisis is different in various forms. In case of normal recessions, the main cause is lack of effective demand, but this economic crisis is originated by restrictions on supply side. The demand was high but due to outbreak of the pandemic restricted all activities in the world; this resulted in fall in consumption. Moreover, due to fear of shortage of food and other essential items caused the panic buying. The sudden desertion of jobs in service sector and informal sector created economic hardship.
Afghanistan: Afghanistan is a landlocked country. Agriculture is the main occupation, although less than 10% of the land is cultivated; a large percentage of land was damaged by warfare during the 1980s and 90s. Largely subsistence crops include wheat and other grains, fruits, and nuts. Afghanistan usually trades with its neighbors, especially with Pakistan being its major trading partner. The latter receives nearly more than 40% Afghan exports, followed by India, China and Turkey. Iran is the main supplier of goods in Afghanistan, followed by China, Pakistan and Kazakhstan. Main goods exported from Afghanistan are fruits, nuts, Afghan rugs, wool, cotton, hides, gemstone, and medical herbs. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Afghanistan was worth 19.10 billion US dollars in 2019, according to official data from the World Bank and projections from Trading Economics. The GDP value of Afghanistan represents 0.02 percent of the world economy. The total value of exports and imports of goods and services is 51.2% of GDP. Afghanistan's economy has been also badly affected by the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus, owing to negative impacts on consumption, exports, and
LITERATURE REVIEW
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remittances. The economy is expected to contract by up to four percent in 2020. The Afghan government has allocated about $25 million to deal with the crisis. The World Bank has approved a $100.4 million grant to support the country's weak economy. The forecasted growth rate for the year 2020 of GDP is -4.5% and 3.0% for the year 2021. The predicted rate of inflation is 5.0% for the year 2020 and 4.5% is for 2021. In Afghanistan, exports account for around 20 percent of GDP.
AFGHANISTAN MAIN EXPORTS ARE: carpets and rugs (45 percent of total exports); dried fruits (31 percent) and medicinal plants (12 percent). Main export partners are: Pakistan (48 percent of total exports), India (19 percent) and Russia (9 percent). Others include: Iran, Iraq and Turkey.
The products with greatest export potential from Afghanistan to World are Lac; natural gums (excl gum arabic), resins, balsams, etc., Figs, fresh or dried, and Grapes, dried. Figs, fresh or dried shows the largest absolute difference between potential and actual exports in value terms, leaving room to realize additional exports worth $123.6 mn.
The markets with greatest potential for Afghanistan's exports of All products are India, Pakistan and United States of America. India shows the largest absolute difference between potential and actual exports in value terms, leaving room to realize additional exports worth $431.8 mn. In case of India Export potential is $765.4 mn, actual exports are $365.8 mn and Untapped potential remaining in individual products is $431.8 mn. In case of Canada the export potential is $5.8 mn, actual exports are $2.2 mn and nntapped potential remaining in individual products is $4.4 mn. In case of Pakistan the export potential is $473.0 mn and actual exports are $273.6 mn and untapped potential remaining in individual products is $214.0 mn. In case of China the export potential is $19.5 mn, actual exports are $8.0 mn and untapped potential remaining in individual products is $16.8 mn.
The suppliers with greatest potential to export all products to Afghanistan are United Arab Emirates, China and Iran, Islamic Republic of. United Arab Emirates shows the largest absolute difference between potential and actual exports in value terms, leaving room to realize additional exports worth $1.5 bn. Afghanistan's best options for export diversification in Bangladesh are Citrus fruits, fresh or dried, Dates, fresh or dried and Oranges, fresh or dried. Afghanistan finds Carbonized wool, not carded/combed easiest to reach. Cement clinkers is the product that faces the strongest demand potential in Bangladesh. Afghanistan's best options for export diversification in India are Dates, fresh or dried, Degreased wool, not carded/combed and Greasy shorn wool. Crude sunflower-seed or safflower oil is the product that
DISCUSSION, RESULTS
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faces the strongest demand potential in India. Afghanistan's best options for export diversification in Pakistan are Raw skins of sheep or lambs, without wool on, pickled, Greasy shorn wool, not carded/combed and Hides & skins of goats or kids, in the wet state. Soya beans is the product that faces the strongest demand potential in Pakistan. Afghanistan's best options for export diversification in Sri Lanka are Citrus fruits, fresh or dried, Dates, fresh or dried and Portland cement. Cane or beet sugar & chemically pure sucrose is the product that faces the strongest demand potential in Sri Lanka.
In Afghanistan, exports account for around 20 percent of GDP. Afghanistan main exports are: carpets and rugs (45 percent of total exports); dried fruits (31 percent) and medicinal plants (12 percent). Main export partners are: Pakistan (48 percent of total exports), India (19 percent) and Russia (9 percent). Others include: Iran, Iraq and Turkey. The products with greatest export potential from Afghanistan to World are Lac; natural gums (excl gum arabic), resins, balsams, etc., Figs, fresh or dried, and Grapes, dried. Figs, fresh or dried shows the largest absolute difference between potential and actual exports in value terms, leaving room to realize additional exports worth $123.6 mn. Afghanistan's best options for export diversification in Bangladesh are Citrus fruits, fresh or dried, Dates, fresh or dried and Oranges, fresh or dried. Afghanistan's best options for export diversification in India are Dates, fresh or dried, Degreased wool, not carded/combed and Greasy shorn wool.
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CONCLUSION
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