CC BY
58
CONDITION AND PROBLEMS OF CONSUMER LENDING DEVELOPMENT IN
RUSSIA
E.A. Kupryaeva, student
Supervisor: A.B. Bass, candidate of economic sciences, associate professor Financial university under the Government of the Russian Federation (Russia, Moscow)
DOI: 10.24411/2411-0450-2019-10635
Abstract. The article considers the current state and the main problems in the development of consumer lending in the Russian Federation. It is noted that a significant increase in consumer loans issued to the population in 2018. occurred in the conditions of a gradual transition of households from savings behavior to increased consumption. It is concluded that one of the main problems of lending is an intensive increase in overdue debts. The reasons for this may be a reassessment of their financial capabilities of the client or too loyal requirements of the bank when granting a loan.
Keywords: consumer loans, savings model of consumption, arrears on consumer loans, problem loans, POS-lending.
The volume of consumer loans issued is an important indicator of banking activity, which characterizes the amount of consumer demand for a given banking service, which was formed over a certain period of time. Consid-
er the main trends and problems of consumer lending in Russia. Dynamics of loans to individuals in Russia in general for the period 2015-2018 presented in the table.
Table. Dynamics of issuing loans to individuals in Russia as a whole [1]
Types of loans As of 01.01.2016 As of 01.01.2017 As of 01.01.2018 As of 01.01.2019
Consumer loans in rubles 7 842 518,9 7 986 082,1 9 258 577 12 206 329
Consumer loans in foreign currency 237 158 300 766 288 503 160 330
Total consumer credits 8 079 676,9 8 286 848,1 9 547 060 12 366 659
Gain in million rubles. +207171,2 +1 260 211,9 2819599
Increase in % +2,5% +13,2% 22,8%
The data presented show a significant increase in lending to individuals (+ 22.8% in 2018 compared to 2017, + 13.2% in 2017 compared to 2016, + 2.5% compared to 2015 year). This happened in the conditions of a gradual transition of households from a savings behavior model to an increase in consumption.
The growth of the consumer loan portfolio was largely due to an increase in mortgage loans and unsecured consumer loans. The reduction in interest rates also contributed to the growth: the weighted average interest rate on ruble loans to individuals for a period exceeding one year in December of 2018 was 12.5% per annum (13.5% in January of 2018). The
amount of loans received by individuals in foreign currency decreased significantly, by almost 32.4%. This tendency was justified due to the non-stable ruble exchange rate to the US dollar during 2015-2018. [2] Sberbank of Russia and VTB Bank have a significant share in the retail lending market. The TOP-10 banks for loans included 6 banks (90%) of the T0P-10 banks for deposits of individuals.
The total value of loans granted to individuals in early January 2019 decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous month, at the beginning of February - by 1%, at the beginning of March - by 0.1%, and then at the beginning of April - increased by 0.6%, and at the beginning of May - by 0.7%. In nominal terms,
the total amount of loans provided to individuals at the beginning of May of 2018 amounted to 10,978.3 billion rubles, the total amount of debt - 10,948.6 billion rubles. Since 2014,
the volume of overdue debts on bank loans to individuals has steadily increased. As of January 1, 2019, overdue debt exceeded 54.6 billion rubles (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Dynamics of changes in the volume of overdue debt on bank loans to individuals in the
Russian Federation, in billion rubles [1]
For the period from 2015 to 2018, the amount of overdue debt on bank loans to individuals in the Russian Federation increased by an amount exceeding 29.2 billion rubles, while the average annual growth rate was 21.4%. As of January 1, 2019, the amount of overdue debts on loans from Russian commercial banks increased to 54.6 billion rubles, while in 2018 the total amount of overdue loans increased by almost 6.1 billion rubles, or by almost 12.6%.
It can be predicted that with the growth rates continuing, the volume of overdue individuals loans on bank loans in 2019 will grow by at least 15%, while if we make a correction for the changes in the national currency to the foreign exchange rate taking place today, it can be assumed that the amount of overdue debts increase by an average of 20% and reach the figure of 65.5 billion rubles.
The dynamics of interest rates on consumer loans are presented in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Dynamics of interest rates on consumer loans in 2017-2018, %.
Source: www.cbr.ru
It should be noted that for the period 20162018, there was a decrease in interest rates on short-term loans. Such loans, or POS loans, are often offered at points of sale of goods and services, for example, loans at home appliances stores. This reduction in interest rates
is a very positive thing for consumers. Despite this, some experts believe that most likely banking organizations will start to get rid of POS-lending, since the rather high cost of these loans does not preclude the large risks
of non-payment of funds by borrowers. Such lending becomes unprofitable for the bank.
Lending to individuals plays an important role in the economies of developed countries. In 2016-2017 Russia has experienced its decline, but it can be argued that since the second half of 2018, it has been increasing intensively.
The problems faced by commercial banks at the moment include:
- the decline in real incomes of the population, which continues to the present, the high key rate of the Bank of Russia, which affects the amount of bank interest on consumer loans and a number of other problems;
- one of the main problems of crediting is the increase in overdue debts. The reasons for this may be a reassessment of their financial
ments of the bank when granting a loan. The decline in the solvency of the population is due to job cuts, a suspension of wage growth, a slowdown in production and consumption [2];
- this implies the following problem, the problem of high client scoring.
The bank, due to a significant share of problem loans and overdue loans, has to tighten the requirements for borrowers, which reduces the chances of a client to receive a loan [3]. In assessing the borrower, banks, among other things, began to pay attention to the field in which the client works, whether there is a likelihood of reduction or dismissal. In total, these circumstances lead to a decrease in the number of loans issued and lower profits.
capabilities of the client or too loyal require-
References
1. The official site of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. - [Electronic resource] - Access mode: http://www.cbr.ru (access date 05/04/2019).
2. Efremova I.A. Bank lending to the population: current trends / I.A. Efremova // Young scientist. - 2018. - №17. - p. 266-268.
3. Zhabina O.A. Prospects for consumer lending at the present stage in the Russian Federation. - 2018. - 365-366 p.
4. Rykova I.N. Consumer credit market: Russian and foreign experience / I.N. Rykov // Finance and credit. - 2018. - №36. - p. 57-62.
СОСТОЯНИЕ И ПРОБЛЕМЫ РАЗВИТИЯ ПОТРЕБИТЕЛЬСКОГО КРЕДИТОВАНИЯ В РОССИИ
Е.А. Купряева, студент
Научный руководитель: А.Б. Басс, канд. экон. наук, доцент Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации (Россия, г. Москва)
Аннотация: в статье рассматривается современное состояние и основные проблемы развития потребительского кредитования в Российской Федерации. Отмечается, что значительное увеличение выданных населению потребительских кредитов в 2018г. происходило в условиях постепенного перехода домашних хозяйств от сберегательной модели поведения к увеличению потребления. Сделан вывод, что одной из основных проблем кредитования является интенсивное увеличение просроченной задолженности. Причинами этого могут быть переоценка своих финансовых возможностей у клиента или слишком лояльные требования банка при предоставлении кредита.
Ключевые слова: потребительские кредиты, сберегательная модель потребления, просроченная задолженность по потребительским кредитам, проблемные кредиты, POS-кредитование.
