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9Статья поступила в редакцию 10.01.10. Ред. рег. № 693 The article has entered in publishing office 10.01.10. Ed. reg. No. 693
УДК 621.311.24
ПРЕДЛОЖЕНИЕ О СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВЕ ПРИ ПРОИЗВОДСТВЕ ВЕТРОЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКИХ УСТАНОВОК
Дж. Куль, Е. Соломин
ООО «ГРЦ-Вертикаль» 456300 Челябинская обл., г. Миасс, Тургоякское шоссе, д. 1 Тел. (912) 317-1805, факс: (351) 264-7694, e-mail: src-vertical@mail.ru
Заключение совета рецензентов: 25.01.10 Заключение совета экспертов: 30.01.10 Принято к публикации: 05.02.10
Статья содержит оценку коммерческого потенциала и способы сотрудничества при производстве ветроэнергетических установок, разработанных ООО «ГРЦ-Вертикаль».
Ключевые слова: ветроэнергетические установки, возобновляемые источники энергии.
CO-OPERATION PROPOSAL FOR THE NEW WIND TURBINE DESIGN
J. Kul, E. Solomin
"SRC-Vertical", Ltd. 1 Turgoyaksky road, Miass, Chelyabinsk reg., 456300, Russia Tel. (912) 317-1805, fax: (351) 264-7694, e-mail: src-vertical@mail.ru
Referred: 25.01.10 Expertise: 30.01.10 Accepted: 05.02.10
The article describes the commercial value and ways for co-operation related to the wind turbines designed by SRC-Vertical, Ltd.
Introduction
Wind energy - what is it?
Wind is the natural movement of air across the land or sea. Wind is caused by uneven heating and cooling of the earth's surface and by the earth's rotation. Land and water areas absorb and release different amount of heat received from the sun. As warm air rises, cooler air rushes in to take its place, causing local winds. The rotation of the earth changes the direction of the flow of air. This produces prevailing winds. Surface features such as mountains and valleys can change the direction and speed of prevailing winds. Wind power is harnessing the wind with turbines to produce mechanical power or electricity (www.hawaii.gov).
Advantages:
1. Wind is a renewable energy resource. Wind patterns in many places on the Earth provide strong, steady trade winds in specific areas throughout most of the year.
2. Used as a "fuel," wind is free and non-polluting, producing no emissions or chemical wastes.
3. Use of wind power as a source of electricity can help reduce a dependence of any village, city or even country on fossil fuels.
4. Wind power can be used with battery storage or pumped hydro-energy storage systems to provide a steady flow of energy.
5. Wind farms can be combined with agricultural activities such as cattle grazing, water pumping, and many more.
6. Wind power is a proven technology and has been used to generate electricity for many years.
7. Equipment for wind machines is commercially available.
8. Some countries (including United States) offer a tax credit for the cost of buying and installing a wind energy device. Tax credit is different from state to state.
Disadvantages:
1. Wind machines must be located where strong, dependable winds are available most of the time.
2. Because winds do not blow strongly enough to produce power all the time, energy from wind machines is considered "intermittent," that is, it comes and goes. Therefore, electricity from wind machines must have a back-up supply from another source.
3. As wind power is "intermittent," utility companies can use it for only part of their total energy needs.
4. Most wind towers and turbine blades are subject to damage from high winds and lighting. Rotating parts which are located high off the ground in most cases can be difficult and expensive to repair.
5. Electricity produced by wind power sometimes fluctuates in voltage and power factor, which can cause difficulties in linking its power to a utility system.
6. The noise made by rotating wind machine blades can be annoying to nearby neighbors.
7. People have complained about aesthetics of and avian mortality from wind machines.
The basic process
The wind turns the blades of a wind power machine. The rotating blades turn the shaft to which they are attached. The turning shaft typically can either power a pump or turn a generator which produces electricity. For producing large amounts of electricity, many machines can be grouped together to form a "wind farm." See also: electricity generation.
Most wind machines have vertical blades attached to a horizontal shaft. This shaft transmits power through a series of gears which provide power to a water pump or electric generator (Fig. 1).
Рис. 1. Ветроэнергетические установки с горизонтальной осью вращения Fig. 1. Horizontal Axis Type
However, the Darrieus wind machine has two, three, or four long curved blades on a vertical shaft. It resembles a giant eggbeater in shape (Fig. 2, 3). The Darrieus machine provides ease of maintenance as the operating gears and controls are located close to the ground. To see an example of this type of machine, see www.sustainableenergy.com.
The amount of energy produced by a wind machine depends upon the wind speed and the size of the blades in the machine. In general, when the wind speed doubles, the power produced increases eight times. Larger blades capture more wind. As the diameter of the circle formed by the blades doubles, the power increases four times.
Рис. 3. Ротор Дарье с двумя и более лопастями Fig. 3. Full Darrieus Type with 2 and more blades
1. Executive summary
According to researches of specialists the world population is growing along with world demand for energy. However fossil fuels are a limited resource and someday the price of energy is going to increase as demand exceeds supply. Then there will be a point when the last oil barrel and coal pound will be utilized (http://www.renewableenergyworks.com/transportation7J oyRide.html). Some analysts expect a peak around 2005, some suggest it will be 2010, others believe it will come as late as 2020. Although predicting the exact timing of the peak is impossible, this great turning point is imminent. Every day the world uses 73 million barrels and finds 15 million. Burning more than we earn - a surefire recipe for bankruptcy.
Added to this is the global pressure to reduce pollution caused by burning the fossil fuels. World energy consumption is expected to increase 40% to 50% by the year 2010, and the global mix of fuels - renewables (18%), nuclear (4%), and fossil (78%) - is projected to remain substantially the same as today; thus global carbon dioxide emissions would also increase 50% to 60% (http://www.maui.net/~jstark/nrgfacts.html).
The list of credible sources which are predicting rising energy prices and shortages of fossil fuels is long. For those who wish greater detail, some of the reports are here: http://www.altenergy.org/core/Fossil_Fuels_Futures/Joy_Ri de/joyride.pdf; http://www.hubbertpeak.com/nations/.
Many others are available.
1.1. Goal of the project
We believe that the use of wind power will help to solve the bunch of global problems. The present project is a major multiyear project with a goal to design and produce 5 types of Wind Power Units (WPU) which convert the free of charge energy of wind flow into electric energy acceptable for use by any electric appliance (Fig. 4).
The following models are planned: 30, 55, 100, 500, 1000 kW.
The design of the models is based on the tested vertical axis small turbines of 1 and 3 kW power (Fig. 5).
Рис. 2. Ветроэнергетические установки типа H-Дарье Fig. 2. H-Darrieus Type
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Рис. 4. Структурная схема ветроэлектростанции Fig. 4. Typical Structure of Windpower Station
located territories where no grid brought, and ends in the sector of medium and rich people who don't want to depend on the local grid electricity. The spectrum of the said WPUs fully covers all groups of private sector.
The big WPU (up to 1000 kW and even larger) is intended for industrial facilities, separate shops and energy producing companies.
The preparation of production of all listed WPU has to be funded by private investors.
The present Proposal is intended to help a potential investor to understand the structure of his raising invested capital.
In an overly simplified summation, there will be two companies playing in the process of the sales of wind turbines. The wind turbine and its structure will be manufactured under the control of SRC-Vertical and/or its affiliates with fabrication of the heavy or big parts locally. It is especially important for the fabrication of blades for big turbines. SRC-Vertical technology of blade fabrication can be approached in any place in the World avoiding the expensive transportation. Several important parts like alternators, controllers, etc. will be made by SRC-Vertical or its affiliates.
The second company Empire Wind will be the key player in marketing, sales and servicing of turbines.
1.3. Why darrieus type:
The machine to be produced has vertical axis of rotation:
Darrieus machine named after the French engineer Georges Darrieus (Fig. 6, 7).
Рис. 5. ВЭУ с вертикальной осью вращения на испытаниях Fig. 5. Tested vertical axis small turbines
The goal of design project is to design the said WPUs on the base of unique knowledge gathered by SRC-Vertical over years, using the ultra-modern space and aircraft technologies. The new designed WPUs will have no analogs in the world due to the use of several know-how, patents, unique materials and newest space-rocket technologies.
1.2. Business structure The planned business structure is as follows: A new company herein named Empire Wind is to be formed in any country per mutual agreement between potential shareholders. Empire Wind will have the task of marketing, selling, installing and supporting wind turbines in the World.
SRC-Vertical and its affiliates will have the task of designing and manufacturing all components which will be used with the wind turbine (www.src-vertical.com).
The small WPUs (up to 100 kW) are purposed on the private sector. There are many people who are willing to have their own energy source. The market begins in far
Рис. 6. Ротор типа Дарье Fig. 6. Full Darrieus rotors
Рис. 7. Модифицированный ротор типа H-Дарье Fig. 7. Modified H-Darrieus rotors
The basic advantages of Darrieus type machine to be produced by SRC-Vertical, are:
1. You may place the generator, gearbox etc. on the ground, and you may not need a tower for the machine.
2. You do not need a yaw mechanism to turn the rotor against the wind.
3. You do not need to overspeed the rotor as in almost all horizontal (propeller) type machines.
4. The overall efficiency of Darrieus machine is almost the same as of propeller type and exceeds it starting from 250 kW.
5. The machine is self-starting.
6. The machine may have special magnet bearings which allow the rotor to "soar" in the air with no friction.
7. When wind is strong the blades are not going to be crashed because of unique technology developed by SRC-Vertical team.
8. Replacing the main bearing for the rotor necessitates removing the rotor on both a horizontal and a vertical axis machine. Due to a special "axial-gap" generator found by SRC-Vertical the bearing and the generator itself can be serviced quickly.
9. Special heating tape and/or coating used in rocket space industry will allow to make WPUs for Far-North applications where the winds is strong during all the year long.
The basic disadvantage is:
1. Wind speeds are very low close to ground level, so although you may save a tower, your wind speeds will be very low on the lower part of your rotor. However if tower is required then its cost is much smaller due to technology studied by SRC-Vertical. The tower is sectioned and any height can be added quickly.
2. Settled opinion that propeller type is better, will be hard to change.
2. Background
The design project on 1 and 3 kW WPUs was fully funded by US Government in 2004-2009. The funding was approached by Berkeley National Lab (US Department of Energy) via International Scientific Technology Center (Russia) under IPP program of US Department of Energy. There is no need in private capital investment in this project anymore. The unique turbines where designed and moved to the small serial production after the successful stand field testing. The main technical goal is the scaling of the design.
2.1. State rocket center (makeyev design bureau)
The SRC-Vertical team we propose doing the design is based on the State Rocket Center. The group consists of the high level scientists and engineers (www.makeyev.ru) (Fig. 8).
SRC-Vertical is a Participant in projects of International Scientific Technical Center (ISTC, www.istc.ru) as well as CRDF Participant (www.crdf.ru).
Рис. 8. ФГУП ГРЦ им. Макеева Fig. 8. State Rocket Center (Makeyev Design Bureau)
Instead of trial and error approaches to the design, we intend to employ the full array of scientific tools available today. Mathematical 3D models, finite element analysis, thermal analysis, stress modeling and more will allow us to design wind turbines with a great technological advantage. The years of scientific researches of several thousands SRC-Vertical engineers and scientists will lead to the high technological wind power units.
Since early 1960s all the activities of the State Rocket Center (Makeyev Design Bureau) were focused on development of sea-launched ballistic missiles. These days, however, an increasing share of its efforts is devoted to development of space systems (both launch vehicles and satellites) and to using available ballistic missiles for suborbital microgravity experiments.
The Center also participates in the certification of rocket and space hardware under directions from the Russian Government.
The SRC-Vertical group has many years experience designing helicopter and other air foil devices. Wind turbines are essentially modifications of these designs. The scientists at SRC-Vertical are capable of making wind turbines which meet or excel the best now available in the market place.
3. Strategy
Per reports of EWEA (European Wind Energy Association) in 2000 the electricity generation in Europe was 4 GW (1 gigawatt = 1,000 MW). Per prognoses in 2010 - 25 GW, in 2030 - 100 GW. China is planning to install 10 GW during 2010-2015 years, India - up to 5 GW.
Russia with its big wind resources has very small park of wind turbines - appr. 15 MW only. Due to the facts of repeating electricity shut downs and necessity of heat supply especially in winter season, there is a big potential market for all types of wind turbines, from small to extra large. The payback time for the wind plant is more than acceptable in most cases, see Table 1.
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Таблица 1
Срок окупаемости для разных типов электростанций
Table 1
Primary energy payback for various types of power plants [1]
3.1. Strategy articulation
There are two basic strategic intents appearing from the present project for investor.
The first is to invest a capital into the production of small WPUs (1-100 kW) and raise it temporary or constantly selling the ready units.
The second is to make new several big units (5001000 kW), then either to expand the production of both small and big turbines or sell the more valuable technology on the market.
The option is to install the turbines as a park and supply the local grid with electricity, and enjoy the income which comes every month from free of charge wind.
We here believe that the first and/or second intent is more lively and profitable. The option is slow for raising a capital and narrow-minded.
3.2. World capacity for WPUs
Wind industry has been rapidly developed during the last 25 years. It became an integral part of power systems in many countries around the world: the USA, Germany, Denmark, India, Spain and others. According to the Institute of European Studies the pace of increase of wind power has raised to 22% over the last 10 years. It has even the high order if compared with traditional power industries (water power stations ~ 1,6, heat power stations ~ 1,5, atomic power stations ~ 0,6%).
NOTE: No atomic power stations have been built around the world post the Chernobyl accident.
In 1999 wind power plants were supplying as small as 0,1% of the world power production only. According
to prognoses of the European Wind Energy Association (http://www.ewea.org/) this number will reach 10% by 2020, exceeding power produced at atomic energy stations, reducing CO emissions into the atmosphere by 10 billion tons, creating 17 million working places.
Europe is the leader of wind plants production and wind power utilization. It produces ~ 75% and uses ~ 70% of all world wind power plants. The European Wind Energy Association set the task to produce 10% of all consuming electric power using a wind and successfully solving it.
The leading countries plan to provide up to 50% (Denmark), 30% (Germany), 24% (the USA), 15% (China) of wind power in their national power balances by 2020. Denmark decided to build wind plants instead of atomic stations even in 1960s, Germany proposes to close down atomic stations through installation of wind plants by 2030.
3.2.1. Potential market of WPUs in USA
The analysis of potential markets for WPUs in USA is differ from other countries.
Continued Growth in Electricity Use Is Expected in All Sectors
According to US Department of Energy (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/electricity.html) with the number of U.S. households projected to rise by 1.0 percent per year between 2000 and 2020, residential demand for electricity is expected to grow by 1.7 percent annually (Fig. 9).
Annual electricity sales by sector, 1970-2020 (billion kilowatthours)
2000-
0--
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Рис. 9. Потребность в электроэнергии Fig. 9. Residential demand for electricity
Residential electricity demand changes as a function of the time of day, week, or year. During summer, residential demand peaks in the late afternoon and evening, when household cooling and lighting needs are highest. This periodicity increases the peak-to-average load ratio for local utilities, which rely on quick-starting gas turbines or internal combustion engines to meet peak demand. Although some regions now have surplus baseload capacity, growth in the residential sector is ex-
Type of Power Plant Payback (Months)
Nuclear 0.7
Coal 0.7
Wind @ 7 m/s 2.5-7.5
Wind @ 5.5 m/s 3.8-11.4
Wind @ 4 m/s 6.3-22.7
Photovoltaic:
Monocrystalline @ 1,000 W/m2 87
Monocrystalline @ 2,200 W/m2 44
Multicrystalline @ 1,000 W/m2 85
Multicrystalline @ 2,200 W/m2 43
Amorphous @ 1,000 W/m2 56
Amorphous @ 2,200 W/m2 28
pected to create a need for more "peaking" capacity. Excluding cogeneration, peaking capacity from natural gas turbines and internal combustion engines is projected to increase from 78 gigawatts in 2000 to 178 gigawatts in 2020.
Electricity demand in the commercial and industrial sectors is projected to grow by 2.3 and 1.4 percent per year, respectively, between 2000 and 2020. Projected growth in commercial floorspace of 1.7 percent per year and growth in industrial output of 2.6 percent per year contribute to the expected increase.
In addition to sectoral sales, cogenerators in 2000 produced 147 billion kilowatthours for their own use in industrial and commercial processes, such as petroleum refining and paper manufacturing. By 2020, cogenerators are expected to see only a slight increase in their share of total generation, increasing their own-use generation to 228 billion kilowatthours as the demand for manufactured products increases (http ://www.eia.doe.gov/o iaf/aeo/tbl1.html).
Electricity Generating Capacity:
Retirements and Rising Demand Are Expected To Require New Capacity
From 2000 to 2020, 355 gigawatts of new generating capacity (excluding cogenerators) is expected to be needed to meet growing demand and to replace retiring units (Fig. 10).
Average U.S. Electricity Prices Are Expected To Decline
Between 2000 and 2020, the average price of electricity in real 2000 dollars is projected to decline by an average of 0.3 percent per year as a result of competition among electricity suppliers (Fig. 11).
Average U.S.retail electricity prices, 1970-2020 (20 cents per kilowatthour) ^ q History Projection
4-
2-
11.3
Average price
(nominal cents)
1970 2020
1
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Рис. 11. Усредненная цена электроэнергии Fig. ll. Average price of electricity
By sector, projected prices in 2020 are 7, 8, and 3 percent lower than 2000 prices for residential, commercial, and industrial customers, respectively.
160-
120-
80-
40-
Projected new generating capacity and retirements, 2000-2020 (gigawatts)
New capacity Retirements
Electricity Generation:
Least Expensive Technology Options Are Likely Choices for New Capacity
Technology choices for new generating capacity are made to minimize cost while meeting local and Federal emissions constraints. The choice of technology for capacity additions is based on the least expensive option available (Fig. 12).
2000-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020
Рис. 10. Рыночная энергоемкость Fig. 10. New generating capacity
Between 2000 and 2020, 10 gigawatts (10 percent) of current nuclear capacity and 37 gigawatts (7 percent) of current fossil-fueled capacity are expected to be retired, including 20 gigawatts of oil- and natural-gas-fired steam plants, nearly all before 2010. Of the 185 gigawatts of new capacity expected by 2010, 10 percent is projected to replace retired oil- and natural-gas-fired steam capacity. As older nuclear power plants age and their operating costs rise, 10 percent of currently operating nuclear capacity is expected to be retired by 2020.
706050-1 40302010-1 0-
Projected levelized electricity generation costs, 2005 and 2020 (20 mills per kilowatthour)
! Variable costs, including fuel Fixed costs Capital costs
2005
Coal Gas Wind Nuclear combined с vele
2020
Coal Gas Wind Nuclear combined cycle
Рис. 12. Стоимость электроэнергии Fig. 12. Electricity cost
The costs and performance characteristics for new plants are expected to improve over time, at rates that depend on the current stage of development for each technology. For the newest technologies, capital costs
International Scientific Journal for Alternative Energy and Ecology № 1 (81) 2010
© Scientific Technical Centre «TATA», 2010
are initially adjusted upward to reflect the optimism inherent in early estimates of project costs. As project developers gain experience, the costs are assumed to decline. The decline continues at a slower rate as more units are built. The performance (efficiency) of new plants is also assumed to improve.
Wind Energy Use Could Gain Most From Cost Reductions
The high renewables case assumes more favorable characteristics for nonhydroelectric renewable energy technologies than in the reference case, including lower capital costs, higher capacity factors, and lower operating costs for some technologies. The assumptions in the high renewables case approximate the renewable energy technology goals of the U.S. Department of Energy. Total generation from nonhydroelectric renewables is projected to reach 258 billion kilowatthours in 2020, compared with 160 billion in the reference case (Fig. 13), increasing from 3 percent of total generation to 5 percent.
Projected nonhydroelectric renewable electricity generation
by energy source in two cases, 2020 (billion kilowatthours) 250 -
200150100500
Geothermal
■ Solar thermal " Photovoltaic Wind
Biomass MSW
Reference
High renawables
Estimates available from State implementation plans include new renewable energy capacity resulting from commercial builds, renewable portfolio standards, systems benefits charges, and other mandates. States with renewable fuel mandates or renewable portfolio standards that project significant capacity additions include Texas (2,279 megawatts), California (1,930 megawatts), Nevada (1,148 megawatts), and New Jersey (904 megawatts). Smaller amounts are projected for Massachusetts, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Arizona. The tax credit, applied to electricity produced from new renewable generators using wind energy for 10 years after the facility has been placed in service, currently is worth 1.7 cents per kilowatthour (see Legislation and Regulations").
Projected additions of renewable generating capacity, 2001-2020 (megawatts)
8000-
6000-
4000-
2000 -
Unplanned Other planned
State manda les
Рис. 13. Потенциал возобновляемой энергетики Fig. 13. Nonhydroelectric renewable
About 63 billion kilowatthours of the projected difference is generated from wind power, 22 billion kilo-watthours from baseload geothermal, and 11 billion kilowatthours from industrial cogeneration using biomass. The projected increase in renewable energy use in the high renewables case reduces fossil fuel use relative to the reference case projection, lowering total projected carbon dioxide emissions by 18 million metric tons carbon equivalent (1 percent).
State Mandates Call for More Generation From Renewable Energy
For AEO2002 it is assumed that State mandates will require total additions of 7,035 megawatts of central-station renewable generating capacity from 2001 through 2020, including 5,129 megawatts of wind capacity, 969 megawatts of landfill gas capacity, 390 megawatts of biomass capacity, 516 megawatts of geothermal capacity, and 31 megawatts of solar (photovoltaic and thermal) capacity (Fig. 14).
Biomass Geothermal Landfill Solar Wind gas
Рис. 14. Прирост возобновляемых источников энергии Fig. 14. Additions of renewable
According to American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) (www.awea.org) Gov. Pataki issued an Executive Order on June 11th (2001) requiring all agencies of New York State, including the New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority, to purchase 10% of their electricity from renewable energy sources by 2005 and 20% by 2010. AWEA said the announcement will create the first stable, long-term markets for retail sales of wind energy in New York State. AWEA News Release. This tendency is becoming common for some states.
Moreover more and more Americans are willing to go away from grid dependence. According to AWEA California consumer interest in home wind energy generators has increased sharply since the beginning of the year as the state's prolonged electricity crisis has made daily headlines and raised customer fears of rate shock. AWEA News Release
The New York Public Service Commission took action to increase funding for wind, solar and biomass energy sources and for energy conservation. The decision will provide $47.5 million over five years for development expected to result in construction of over 200 megawatts of wind turbine generating capacity in
New York State, enough to meet the annual energy needs of 84,000 homes. AWEA News Release.
Many more examples show the increase of interest of officials and consumers in wind power.
If we take into consideration that according to DOE information the USA have to install 5 GigaWatts of WPUs by 2020 then in the amount of wind turbines to be designed and produced due to the present project, the real capacity of USA market is the following:
- 1.6 million 3 kW units, or
- 0.16 million 30 kW units, or
- 75,430 55 kW units, or
- 2,600 1000 kW units, or
- 5,140 1000 kW units.
3.2.2. Russian potential market for WPUs
Energy balance per capita consumption is shown below on Fig. 15.
The maximum power supply per production unit is registered in oil and gas production areas of the Western Siberia and Orenburg Region. In Siberia Irkutsk Region stands out due to 3 large-scale hydro-power stations. Krasnoyarsk Region, the coal-mining Kusbas and Magadan Region characterized by low population and the large-scale Kolymskaya Hydro-electric station. The remaining part of Russia is marked by the heightened
power-intensive production technologies in the regions where integrated iron-and-steel works (Novolipetsk, Cherepovets, Magnitogorsk), metal-working plants (Samara, Tula, Murmansk Regions and the Urals) or petroleum chemical plants (Omsk, Grozny), are located. And the low power supply per production units are peculiar to agrarian regions.
The psychology aspect of today energy supplement is far from perfection due to permanent and long electricity shut-downs especially on the North of Russia (Primorsk and several other regions) where people are forced to make fire places near stone buildings and cook a meal in closed to polar conditions (minus 40-50 degrees below zero centigrade). This is a tremendous market for wind turbine sales. SRC-Vertical has got more that 10,000 requests on wind turbine installation from Russian potential customers.
Russia is potentially rich in wind power in the areas where power grids are not available. The coast of the Arctic Ocean, Kamchatka, Sakhalin, the Chukotka Peninsula as well as the Finnish Bay, the Black and the Caspian Seas provide high average wind speeds.
In parallel with the given above data, the anthropogenic impact on the Russian environment urge to use alternative eco-friendly power resources.
Рис. 15. Потребление энергии на душу населения Fig. 15. Energy balance per capita
International Scientific Journal for Alternative Energy and Ecology № 1 (81) 2010
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The next map on Fig. 16 shows that despite of the low power supply per production unit in Moscow Region, this is the area with the highest environmental impact potential (http://www.enport.com.ua/save/wind_int.htm). The question is how this potential of anthropogenic pressure impacts on ecosystems. The answer to the question is unambiguous since in the capital region the high overall power demand goes with the highest technological level, thus, with the highest power and resources utilization efficiency.
Analysis of the environmental contamination gives an indication what development tendency (extensive or intensive growth of power supply per production unit) currently prevails in the technologically advanced Russian region. The comparison of the above map with the data on the acid atmospheric precipitation points at their high correlation. The result allows reaching a conclusion that Moscow technological level does not conform to the one potentially required for the specified industry concentration. In other Russian areas the negative impact on the environment is correspondingly
in closer dependence to the overall power demand per area unit.
In this regard the situation in Russia is considered to be hazard as power distribution over the Russian territory pictures the ecosystems transformation level. The maximum power demand per area unit values are typical for the steppe zone and the Central Russia that have the maximum unbalanced ecosystems, especially in the North Caucasus and Orenburg Region.
Under these circumstances utilization of alternative power sources would vastly reduce the anthropogenic impact on the RF environment.
The said actually means that the Region Administrations of several regions are interested in installation of wind turbines in their regions. This interest of Region Administrations (including Chelyabinsk region where the wind rotors are being produced), already give serious advantages in tax payments, low-cost land lease and free advertising. Particularly buying the wind turbine 50% of the cost could be reimbursed by Region Administration.
Рис. 16. Потребление энергии на единицу площади Fig. 1б. Fuel types and power demand
Energy System of Russia now supplies 72.5% of all Russian electric stations (155,000 MW). In 2009 Energy System of Russia produced more than 630 billion kW-hours of electric energy. The heat supply is more than 490 million Giga-calories (33,3% of all heat
consumption in Russia). According to tendency of development of wind power machines in Europe and USA the energy market capacity of Russia may vary from 1,550 MW (1% of energy supply of RAO ES) to 15,500 MW (10% of RAO ES power).
In the amount of wind turbines to be designed and produced due to the present project, the minimum rough potential capacity of Russian market is the following (for arithmetic mean 5% of energy supply of RAO ES = 8,500 MW):
- 2.8 million 3 kW units, or
- 0.3 million 30 kW units, or
- 140K 55 kW units, or
- 17K 500 kW units or
- 8.5K 1000 kW units.
The deduction is evident if to take into consideration that Russia has 5 MW of wind supply only.
3.3. World market and costs
Available data demonstrate that generating power and wind plant prices vary greatly depending on the wind turbine class, design and operation peculiarity. The prices are not unified since different control and financing policies are adopted in different countries and even regions.
1-kW range wind plant production expenses are within $1,000 ... $5,000, the price of 1 kWh of generating power varies from 6 to 10 cents (at 7-8 meter/sec wind). Maintenance expenses make are 0.6-1 cent/kWhour.
The price of power generated by wind turbines is a comprehensive index of wind industry efficiency. Over the last 20 years the index has dropped 5 times (or by 80%). The analysis of the price of electric power generated using different power sources showed that only wind power tends to decrease, and in 2005 the world price will drop to 2.5-3.5 cents/kWh (Fig. 17).
40
Ж 30
20
10
38 cents in 1980 Cost of Wind Generated Electricity 1980 to 2005 levelized Cents/kWh
15
1 0
1 < < I Ä 5 *.....
I 1 1 1 1 1 ■
1981
1987
1991
1995
2000 2005 Projected
*Assumptions. Levelized costs at exellent wind sites, large project areas, not including the production tax credit (post 1994) http://www.awea.org/faq/cost.html
Рис. 17. Стоимость энергии Fig. 17. Cost of energy
Ryan Wiser and Edward Kahn of Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory's Energy and Environment Division estimated that a typical 50-MW wind plant could generate 3.5 cents/kWh without any contamination from each thousand of dollars. Typical gas station can generate only 3.69 cents/kWh with the appropriate air pollution.
4. Strategic goal - who and why will purchase wind turbines in Russia?
NOTE: The evaluation is based on data submitted by RAO EES: baseline power sells at 0.5081 rubles ($0.0169).
In Russian market there is no sense in purchasing a wind turbine with the aim to refund its cost paying lower electricity charges. Assessing a 30-kW wind turbine purchased for 2.4 million rubles and 200K rubles of annual maintenance expenses, it will take over 20 years to recover the cost. The wind turbine has to be considered as a renewal power resource which can be used instead of expensive fuel. According to this aspect it is economically viable to buy the wind turbine because:
- In some cases to connect a consumer to the power grid will require considerable expenses equal to the wind turbine price;
- Energy System of Russia intensified the process of purchasing wind turbines from commercial companies with further transfer to the specified consumers under a 3-5 years leasing contract. Within these years a consumer pays for the generated electric power and finally becomes the wind turbine owner;
- Russian Government begins stimulating wind turbines makers through some privileges in land leasing, low taxation and other savings.
- Residential, Industrial and Commercial consumers are interested in generating their own (not provided by Russian Energy System) electric power. It allows a manufacturer to make a price which includes wind turbine acquisition cost. Power surplus can be sold. Residential consumers do not care when 15K 500 kW units or Russian Energy System will shut down the whole city or region.
- In some locations Wind turbine acquisition costs can be recovered (in 2-3 years) due to the elimination (or reduction the number) of diesel power plants.
As per the above mentioned arguments the following conclusion will divide all wind power units onto two classes:
1. Small not grid-connected wind power units in 1100 kW range for sparsely inhabited areas having acute shortage of electric power.
2. Big autonomous grid-connected wind power units from 500 kW range for areas with the highly developed industrial and grid infrastructure.
The project task is to develop and produce wind turbines of the 1st class, especially in 30, 100, 500, 1000 kW range.
The wind power units will be designed as autonomous electric power sources. They can be installed in combination with diesel generators operating according to signals from the wind turbine sensors depending on a wind speed. They can be used in combined systems equipped with various accessories and components of power converting and accumulating batteries and machines.
International Scientific Journal for Alternative Energy and Ecology № 1 (81) 2010
© Scientific Technical Centre «TATA», 2010
According to this conclusion over 50 MW should be generated by at least 2020 and wind power consumption should raise to 0.3 W per capita. It will form 0.02% of the prescribed power generated by the Russian electric power plants.
The work of locating the potential customers got started by SRC-Vertical in 2000 and counts 10,000+ different customers. More than 20,000 requests were sent from all over the World.
5. Cashflow, investments, sales and profit (Table 2)
NOTE #1: The retail price is formed without applicable taxes and includes 20-25% formal profit.
NOTE #2: Calculations of re-payment are made without any profit for production facilities.
Оценка инвестиций и прибыли Investments and Profit Estimates
Таблица 2 Table 2
Wind turbine type, kW Retail price, U$D Years
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of units sold
1 3 000 15 30 150 150 150 150 150 150 100 50
3-5 10 000 10 30 100 100 100 100 100 100 60 40
30 70 000 10 20 55 55 55 55 55 55 40 20
Total revenue, 1000 U$D 845 1 790 5 300 5 300 5 300 5 300 5 300 5 300 3 700 1 950
Investment, 1000 U$D per year 676 587 2 450 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gross profit, 1000 U$D per year 0 0 0 1 060 1 060 1 060 1 060 1 060 2 340 2 140
NOTE #3: Total investment during 3 years is $3,713,000 to be recovered in the beginning of 4th year. Starting from the middle of 4th year there is a gross profit only (without further investment). (!) Smaller and bigger investments draft project with smaller and bigger revenue and profit with the repayment within 1-2 or more years are available per request.
NOTE #4: The number of wind turbines to be sold was calculated on the base of today market.
NOTE #5: Transport, insurance, service expenses will be paid by customers separately. Installing and operating a wind turbine are around $3,000 per rated kW, which translated to around $0.15/kwh.
NOTE #6: Pre-production investment is not included because of some funding from Berkley National Laboratory on the stage of design project. Full pre-production expenses are estimated for $4M. This includes preparation studies, project management, preliminary marketing, patenting, protection of intellectual property (!), production preparation;
NOTE #7: If capital in the amount of $3,713,000 is invested, it is roughly tripled in 10 years ($9,780,000).
References
1. Hagedorn G., Ilmberger F. Kumulierter Energieverbrauch fuer die Herstellung von Windkraftanlagen. Forschungsstelle fuer Energiewirtschaft, Im Auftrage des Bundesministeriums fuer Forschung und Technologie, Muenchen, August 1991. PP. 79, 98, 100, 111. (http://www.econet.org/awea).
2. Gydesen A., Maimann D., Pedersen P.B. Renere Teknologipa Energiomradet, Energigruppen, Fysisk Laboratorium III, Danmarks Tekniske Hoejskole, Miljoeministeriet, Miljoeprojekt Nr. 138, Denmark, 1990. P. 123-127. (http://www.econet.org/awea).
