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13BioClimLand, 2014 No. 2, 26-34
CLIMATIC DEPENDENCE OF BIOTA IN THE NORTH OF THE TYUMEN REGION (THE QUANTITATIVE ASPECT)
A.A. Konovalov
Institute of Problems of Development of the North, SB RAS (Tyumen, Russia)
This article examines the quantitative regularities of the distribution and hierarchy of biotic indices in the north of the Tyumen region. It determines the nature of their zonal distribution and provides formulas for climatic dependence of biota. We estimated the impact of warming on the biota of the region.
Key words: The north of the Tyumen region, climate, indices of dryness and heat, biota, taxa, warming
Introduction. North of the Tyumen region is a territory of Yamal-Nenetski and Han-ti-Mansi autonomous areas, the length in the meridian direction of which is 1500 km. It includes eight bioclimatic complexes (BC) [1, 2]. Their names and numeration (I, II, III, ...Vin) are provided in picture 1.
Qualitative indices of biological abundance and diversity of the Tyumen region were studied in works [3, 4, 5, 6, 7]. This article studies the quantitative dependencies in order to determine and estimate the interdependence between the biota, its structure, climatic indices and distribution among the natural complexes and the range levels. Also, this article describes the influence of global warming on the biota.
Climatic indices were provided by the weather stations. Approximates of the dependencies and their veracity (determination coefficient) R2 were calculated in Microsoft Excel.
Key climatic indices and interdependencies. The key versatility indices are dryness index J = B/Urr (B - annual radiation balance, kcal/cm2; U =0,6 kcal/cm3 — evaporation heat, rr — annual precipitation total, cm) which correlates heat and water ingress into the soil[8] with heat index which is represented by accumulated temperatures S
Zone Radiation Regime Air Tem perature Wind
№ Q- B B t -t -t V V
1 50 60 33 15 6.5 11 10 21(5 6.8 8
2 62.5 77 42 17.6 8 16.5 7.5 195 6 4.8
3 64.6 80 49 21 10 16 5 175 4.5 4.2
4 71 83 53 25 11 14 3.5 151 4 4.1
Zone Snow cover Precipitation Water Regime
№ h H h CH CH CH r T r r S n S 0 E
1 60 28 0.27 250 23 30 7.2 22.5 7.5 14.7
2 70 22 0.25 240 27 35 7.3 19.6 15.4 22.7
3 75 32 0.21 230 29 38 9.4 18.6 18.6 28
4 75 40 0.22 205 36 50 9 30 30 39
There were found quantifications of climatic interdependences for the conditions of the Tyumen region [2, 11, 13] which allow us to determine the other quantifications if any other EC is known, e.g. heat and dryness indices or July air temperatures. Picture 3 depicts the graphs that link the most significant EC of the north of the Tyumen region (in addition to the designation mentioned in the text here: S
№ S All Plants(Np) Herbaceous(Tp) Ligneous(fl)
B P C n K Og B P C B P C
1 320 162 74 31 28 4 3 148 67 25 14 7 6
2 480 339 134 46 38 5 4 301 115 34 38 19 12
3 6 0 358 45 52 41 6 5 311 21 38 47 24 4
4 10 0 400 77 57 45 7 5 343 50 42 57 27 5
5 1293 435 '14 66 52 7 5 377 186 51 58 28 15
S.N. Gashev researched a zonal distribution of the animal taxa belonging to various hierarchical levels - species (B), genera (P), families (C), orders (O) and classes (K) in the Tyumen region. The data he provided on climatic dependencies were published in [2, 3, 9, 16].
Picture 6 demonstrates the graphs of dependencies of quantities of various taxa of plants (Np) and animals (Na) on the heat index (S
№ 1 2 3 4 5
S 320 480 610 1010 1293
Pr 1.9 2.9 3.7 6.1 7.8
Bm 39.7 89.2 118.4 180 210
The analysis of the tables and graphs of the dependency of the biotic indices on the heat index demonstrates that a) starting from the level of classes, the quantity of taxa does not depend on climate anymore and becomes approximately equal for all BC; b) general formula of dependency of the biota parameters on S
PB Taxa A B R2 PB Taxa A B R2
M species 0.125 53.1 0.92 L species 0.0024 30 0.88
genera 0.063 34.9 0.93 genera 0.001 16 0.87
families 0.02 16.1 0.94 families 0.0003 11.3 0.73
orders 0.008 5.8 0.9 H species 0.09 255 0.99
B species 0.031 10.3 0.98 genera 0.09 30 0.97
genera 0.017 10.1 0.95 families 0.02 25 0.94
families 0.006 6.8 0.96 N p species 0.115 285 0.99
orders 0.001 4.5 0.80 genera 0.096 86.3 0.94
N a species 0.176 49.8 0.98 families 0.022 36.4 0.91
genera 0.091 37.2 0.98 orders 0.021 25.4 0.9
families 0.029 21 0.98 classes 0.003 3.6 0.86
orders 0.01 9.2 0.99 phylum 0.0026 2,7 0.84
Pr - 0.006 0 0.91 Bin - 0.171 0 0.96
Picture 7b reflects stable linear relations between taxa of flaura and fauna which are invariant to climate.
Picture 1. Bioclimatic complexes - BC (I - arctic tundra, II - northern strip of subarctic tundra, III - southern strip of subarctic tundra, IV - subarctic shrub tundra, V - forest tundra, VI -northern strip of the northern taiga subzone, VII - southern strip of the north taiga subzone, VIII - Vertical L=1- grid meridian which may serve as a step scale with division value of ~150 km while determining distance between isolines of EC.
Picture 2. Accumulated positive £0) and negative (X-0) temperatures (degree-days, dd) in the north of the Tyumen region (designation according to picture 1)
Picture 3. Dependencies of Eo on t7 - A; E 5 and Eio, on Eo - E; tc on 2 - 0 - B; Ko on J - r; rr on rT - D; jrT on jt7 - E (designation in the text).
Picture 4. The course So (dd) of time t (years): a - in Surgut, 6 — in Salekhard and 6 - in Berezov; dependencies of J^m on Jt — г; J So on jL - d and So on jL - e (explanation in the article).
Picture 5. Dependence of t7 on jt7 in the region of the Tyumen region - a, only in Salekhard — b and Surgut - c.
Picture 6. Graphs of dependency of Na and Np on So for various taxa (letter designation of the taxa could be found in the text).
Picture 7.Dependency of Na2 - Na4 on Na1 and NP2 - NP4 on Npi (a, ff) as well as Nai on N'ljjiCe)
Picture 8.Values oof z\t7 and k in the north oof the Tyumen region. (№ -numeration of posts according to Table 1)
Biotic diversity. This index is expressed through various correlations between mass or quantity of various groups of the biota by means of the Shannon index (measure of entropy), the Simpson index (measure of dispersion), etc. (see example [1]). The greater the Shannon index is, the more diverse the biota is. The increase in the Simpson index corresponds with the domination growth. It should be noted that the biota composition, the quantity of its systematic groups (taxa) and the correspondence between them are determined only by calculation (transcription) in the field, i.e. all the indices of the biota diversity are calculated by means of the already known values. Besides, none of the known indices reflect the influence of climatic factors. Nevertheless, climate determines heat and moisture supply and it is a primary factor of the biota segmentation and its diversity. This factor allows, as it is shown below, to estimate, at least approximately, structure of the biota only by means of the climatic data, particularly by the heat index S
BC I II III IV V VI VII VIII
J 0.45 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.75 0.81 0.88 0.96
340 439 658 877 1097 1316 1536 1700
r 0 147 140 125 110 94 79 63 52
193 237 252 267 283 298 314 325
62 281 500 720 939 1159 1343
0.43 0.32 0.19 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.04 0.03
0.57 0.54 0.38 0.31 0.26 0.23 0.21 0.2
_ 0.14 0.43 0.57 0.66 0.71 0.75 0.77
Pr 3.2 4.2 6 7.3 8.5 9.3 9.8 10.2
Pr, 1.38 1.34 1.14 0.91 0.73 0.56 0.41 0.31
Pr1 1.82 2.27 2.3 2.23 2.19 2.11 2 2
Pr" 0.59 2.56 4.16 5.58 6.64 7.4 7.8
N3 326 338 364 390 417 449 469 480
N1 140 108 69 49 36 27 19 14
185 182 139 119 107 100 96 96
N 48 155 223 274 316 354 370
N3 110 127 166 204 243 281 3 6 324
N" 47 41 32 26 21 17 3 10
N 63 68 63 62 63 64 65 65
N 17 71 116 159 201 242 249
Table 5 states that the aggregate quantity of biotic species thermophilic biota Np3 and Na3) within the north of the Tyumen region increases from north to south along with the increase in J and r0 Meanwhile, the quantity of the arctic species (Np1 and Na1) decreases. The quantity of the frost-resistant species (Np2 and Na2) decreases in the flora and it is almost constant in the fauna.
Global warming and its influence on the biota. Within last 40-50 years, omnipresent warming has been observed and its main feature is an increase in air temperature in the frost-free season and in the average annual expressions. Warming causes numerous adverse consequences of disastrous character e.g. fires, floods, subsidence of the permafrost ground, destructive deformations of engineering structures, etc. It is particularly dangerous for the North where it might cause defrosting of the circumpolar and subterranean ice and release of an enormous water mass which is trapped within the frozen gas. Meanwhile, it is apparent that the increase in air temperatures in the conditions of adequate and excessive humidification, which is typical for the North, has a positive influence on the biota due to the increase in the length of the vegetation period, abundance and species diversity. At least, this is stated in theory.
Current climate was formed 3-4 thousand years ago. Apparently then the composition of the corresponding natural biota was formed. Emergence of new species (with the exception of cultivated plants and domestic animals) in terms of ecology virtually stopped. Emergence of new species that have never grown in this area before is primarily connected with the climate fluctuations which are close to periodic and spatial-temporal
shift (cycle) of bioclimatic complexes.
By this time, a new force appeared which had an influence on the biota i.e. human factor which can be compared to the climate and often even exceeds it. Therefore, it is important to consider both of these factors while estimating the biota variations. This work sets a particular goal to estimate a deviation of the biotic diversity only in respect of the climatic factor i.e. the increase in air temperatures within last 50 years in the north of the Tyumen region.
The used climatic indices were taken from the climate data manuals published in 2011 and 1965 [2, 11]. According to the experts, the biota of the end of XX - beginning of XXI centuries approximately corresponds with the climatic indices of the manuals of 1965 [11]. Therefore, the set goal may be achieved by comparison of the data of these manuals and analysis of the results.
Table 6 presents average plurannual values of the average annual (tc) and July (t7) temperatures in a number of posts in the north of the Tymen region within the periods prior to 2011and 1965. Picture 6 demonstrates a zonal course of temperature variations within these periods (t7) and correlation between them (k= t7a / t7b)
Table 6. Average values tc and t7 within the period between 2011 (a) and 1965r.(b) and their deviations within 50 years in the north of the Tyumen region.
№ Point tc..a , 2011 tc.b , 1965 Va, 2011 Vb , 1965 k_t7.a / Vb t7=t7.a" t7.b
1 Bely island -11.7 4.9 4.1 1.19 0.8
-10.4
2 Harasavey c. -10.5 6.6 5.5 1.2 1.1
-9.8
3 Tazovskiy -8.6 14.5 13.4 1.08 1.1
-9.3
4 Sidorovsk -8 15.6 14.6 1.07 1
-8.5
5 N.Port -7.8 12.2 11 1.11 1.2
-9.4
6 Yamburg -6.3 14.3 13 1.1 1.3
-6.9
7 Salekhard -6.3 14.7 13.8 1.06 0.9
-6.4
8 Halesavey -5.3 17.2 15.9 1.08 1.3
9 Tarko-Sale -6 - . 16.4 15.4 1.06 1
-6.7
10 Yar-Sale -7.3 14.4 13.2 1.09 1.2
-7.5
11 Nadym -5.9 15.9 14.7 1.08 1.2
12 Berezovo -3.1 -6.6 16.4 15.8 1.04 0.6
-3.8
13 Surgut -2.9 17.5 16.9 1.04 0.6
14 Nyaksimvol -2.2 -3.1 17.3 15.8 1.09 1.5
15 Kh.-Mansiysk -0.8 18.3 17.5 1.05 0.8
Table 5 and picture 8 reflect a general tendency towards the increase of July air temperatures within last 50 years: by 0,6 — 1,50C (in average by 1,04 0C) or by 5-19% (in average by 7 %) with an average velocity: vt7 « 1/50 « 0,02 degrees/year. There were not observed any spatial (zonal) regularity in distribution of t7 and k, value of k deviates from post to post negligibly. Therefore, we consider these values constant as a rough approximation and equal to the average value: t7 = 1,04 0C; k=1,07.
As for the average annual temperatures, they increase in most of the parts of the region, with the exception of islands and the coast of the Kara Sea (Bely Island and Harasavey Cape) where some decline is observed [12, 13]. This means that warming occurs owing to the increase in summer temperatures.
With the help of the equation of dependency of S
BC I II III IV V VI VII VIII
340/432 439/531 658/750 877/969 1097/1189 1316/1408 1536/1628 1700/1819
Pr 2/2.2 2.6/2.8 3.9/4.2 5.3/5.6 6.6/7 7.9/8.4 9.2/9.9 10.2/10.9
N 327/335 338/346 364/371 390/396 417/421 449/457 469/472 480/491
N 110/125 127/143 166/181 204/220 243/259 281/298 316/336 324/365
Judging by the data from table 7, the 10C increase in July temperature and correspondingly the increase in the aggregate of positive temperatures by 93 dd caused an increase in the number of the biota species: the number of plant species increased from 8 in the arctic tundra up to 11 in the middle taiga; the number of animal species increased from 15 in the arctic tundra up to 41 in the middle taiga.
Conclusion
1. Basic climatic indices that determine abundance and diversity of the biota are the heat and aridity indices. The quantity of the biotic taxa within the north of the Tyumen region increases from north to south along with the increase in the value of the above-mentioned indices. Meanwhile, the correlation between quantity of genera, families, orders and the quantity of species is constant. The quantities of species of flora and fauna are in a stable relation, and their ratio is invariant towards climate.
2. Within last 50 years air temperatures of July increased by 10C, while the accumulated temperatures increased by 93 dd in the north of the Tyumen region. This warming corresponds with the increase in the quantity of species: the quantity of plant species increased by 1-3%, the quantity of animal species increase by 9%. Therefore, there is a positive influence of the climate warming on the biota of the north, though in general this influence is not great and hardly compensates for the adverse factors caused by warming such as fires, floods, etc.
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About
Konovalov Alexander A. - Dr. of Technical Sciences, PhD in Geography, senior researcher, the Institute of the Problems of Development of the North, SB RAS, Tyumen, Russia. Email: konov7@ rambler.ru
