CC BY
44
УДК: 614.2+26.89
CLIMATE CHANGE, HUMAN HEALTH AND WELL-BEING IN YAKUTIA
© V. P. shadrin1, T.Ye. Burtseva1, s. L. Avrusin2, I. V. solodkova2
1Yakut Research Centre for Complex Medical Problems SB RAMS; 2 Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical University
Resume. The study was designed as a community survey conducted face-to-face with an in-person interview. The 145 subjects living in 8 rural settlements were reviewed. Data presented show that in total the most impressive changes are registered for the following signs: thinner ice on rivers, water and ice in rivers more muddy, the number of sunny days greater, more difficult to predict good weather and beginning of spring, rivers and sea covered with ice later, hunting, fishing, gathering mushrooms and berries is not so successful and quantity of mosquitoes is greater than it has been 5 years ago. Everyday activities of hunters, fishermen and herders living in Yakutia have changed during the last 5 years due to climate change. People living in the central part of Yakutia are affected to a greater extent, which is associated with faster warming. Those changes are supposed to be the sources of the problems with long-term and short-term weather forecast, difficulties to travel along tundra and forest, reindeer grazing, problems with fishing, hunting, gathering mushrooms and berries. Tendencies of infant mortality and morbidity in the studied regions are not associated with climate change and though the morbidity in Yakutia has a tendency to grow both in adults' and in children's populations mostly due to increase in prevalence of the diseases of the respiratory, circulatory and digestive system, this fact can hardly be associated with climate change.
Key words: climate change; morbidity; regions of Yakutia; cross-sectional survey.
introduction
The pattern of average ambient temperature along the timeline of millions of years is known to have the downward trend with fluctuations of incremental range [5]. This pattern rather supports the idea that the average temperature can be sometimes higher than it has been previously than the idea of long-term total global warming. It is known that the global trend for the average temperature curve during the last 120-140 years is upward (Fig. 1).
As it is well known, projected climate change-related exposures are likely to affect the health status of millions of people, particularly those with low adaptive capacity, through at least:
1. increases in malnutrition and consequent disorders, with implications for child growth and development;
2. increased deaths, disease and injury due to heatwaves, floods, storms, fires and droughts;
3. the increased burden of diarrhoeal disease;
4. the increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to higher concentrations of ground-level ozone related to climate change;
5. the altered spatial distribution of some infectious disease vectors.
objectives of the study
1. to reveal climate-dependent problems in everyday activities of people living in rural areas of Yakutia;
2. to analyze the demographic and health status tendencies possibly associated with climate change.
materials and methods
The study was designed as a community survey conducted face-to-face with an in-person interview by a specialist of the Yakutsk Research Centre. Fig. 2 shows the places where the survey was performed. The total of 145 subjects living in 8 rural settlements (Mytaakh, Magaras, Kujerelyakh, Ert, Asyma, Orto-Surt, Tiksi, Andryushkino) were reviewed.
Of those 145 respondents 15 inhabit Bulunsky, 15 — Nizhnekolymsky and 130 — Gorny uluses. The settlements were situated in two different parts of Yakutia: in its central part and in the northern part.
To be enrolled into the research fishermen, hunters and herders had to meet the following inclusion criteria:
1. belong to any ethnic group,
2. be a male,
3. be a herder, fisherman or hunter,
4. be 18-65 years old,
5. be a resident of the same area for at least 5 years,
6. sign an informed consent,
The questionnaire consisted of twenty seven questions that the respondent had to answer in a set format. All questions are very simple and closed-ended. The respondent had to pick an answer from a given number of three options. While evaluating the difference of percents of respondents answered "yes" in the northern and central parts of Yakutia the third option — "don't know" — was used as a marker for exclusion of the respondent from calculations concerning this question, so the answers were considered to be dicho-tomous.
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Fig. 1. Annual and five year global average temperature trend since 1880. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp. Published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available from: http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/syr/fig1-2.jpg (Accessed 25.09.2014)
Fig. 2. Map of Eastern Siberia. Circumscribed are the areas in northern Bulunsky (1), Nizhnekolymsky (2) and central Gorny (3) uluses covered by the survey. IPCC, 2007: Physical map of Siberia, Eastern Russia. Available from: http://www.freeworld-maps.net/russia/siberia/map.html Accessed 25.09.2014
Table 1
Number of answers "yes", "no", don't know" given by 145 inhabitants of Bulunsky, Nizhnekolymsky (both northern) and Gorny (central) uluses of Yakutia
№ Question Total N = 145 North N = 30 Center N = 115
Yes No Don't know Yes No Don't know Yes No Don't know
During past 5 years:
1 Swamps appear to occupy more tundra and forest 18 26 101 2 19 9 16 7 92
2 Ice on rivers became thinner 70 28 47 20 8 2 50 20 45
3 Rivers became covered with ice longer 56 50 39 10 18 2 46 32 37
4 Water in rivers became more muddy 113 10 22 21 4 5 92 6 17
5 Ice on rivers became more muddy 99 22 24 13 11 6 86 11 18
6 The number of rainy days became greater 42 88 15 23 7 0 19 81 15
7 The number of sunny days became greater 83 45 17 15 15 0 68 30 17
8 Snowfall amount increased 12 125 8 0 30 0 12 95 8
9 Snowstorms became stronger and more frequent 21 44 80 2 21 7 19 23 73
10 Foggy weather became more frequent 32 67 46 14 13 3 18 54 43
11 It has become more difficult to predict a snowstorm 23 23 99 4 12 14 19 11 85
12 It has become more difficult to predict good weather 83 18 44 11 7 12 72 11 32
13 It has become more difficult to predict when spring will come 96 20 29 25 0 5 71 20 24
14 Rivers and sea became covered with ice later 67 22 56 23 4 3 44 18 53
15 Snow in winter became more crumbly 40 40 65 2 9 19 38 31 46
16 It has become more difficult to travel in tundra and forest because of more hummock on rivers 15 18 112 6 14 10 9 4 102
17 It has become more difficult to travel along tundra and forest because of more swamps 15 21 109 2 19 9 13 2 100
18 It has become more difficult to travel along tundra and forest because of unpredictable weather 25 16 104 12 10 8 13 6 96
19 You can catch fewer fish 102 18 25 20 10 0 82 8 25
20 You can hunt fewer birds 93 37 15 9 21 0 84 16 15
21 You can hunt fewer wild animals 82 25 38 10 15 5 72 10 33
22 You can gather less berries 105 26 14 6 21 3 99 5 11
23 You can gather less mushrooms 105 26 14 7 20 3 98 6 11
24 You see fewer lemmings 15 24 106 2 18 10 13 6 96
25 Reindeer grazing has become more complicated 31 23 91 2 19 9 29 4 82
26 Wild animals became lean 52 18 75 17 11 2 35 7 73
27 The amount of mosquitoes became more numerous in tundra and forest 89 41 15 26 3 1 63 38 14
To determine the significance of differences a two sided t-test for percents was used (Statistica for Windows ver. 6, StatSoft, AX204B521115F60, independent samples).
results
The results of the survey are presented in tables 1 and 2.
Data presented in table 1 show that in total the most impressive changes are registered for the following signs: thinner ice on rivers, water and ice in rivers more muddy, the number of sunny days greater, more difficult to predict good weather and beginning
of spring, rivers and sea covered with ice later, hunting, fishing, gathering mushrooms and berries is not so successful and quantity of mosquitoes is greater than it has been 5 years ago.
Comparison of answers of the respondents living in the northern and in the central parts of Yakutia makes it possible to conclude that situation in the central part has a more strongly pronounced negative trend (Table 2). Significantly more often respondents' answers "yes" to questions №№ 1, 3, 5, 9, 11, 12, 15, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 in the central part of Yakutia being compared with greater number of "yes" in reply to only few questions (6, 10, 13, 27) in the northern part makes
Table 2
Difference between percent of answers "yes" for inhabitants of northern and central uluses of Yakutia
Question Percent of answers "yes", dichotomized values Importance of difference for "yes" between northern and central uluses, P
northern uluses central ulus
01. Swamps appear to occupy more tundra and forest 10 70 0.00
02. Ice on rivers became thinner 71 71 1.00
03. Rivers became covered with ice longer 36 59 0.04
Q4. Water in rivers became more muddy 84 94 0.10
Q5. Ice on rivers became more muddy 54 89 0.00
Q6. The number of rainy days became greater 77 19 0.00
Q7. The number of sunny days became greater 50 69 0.06
08. Snowfall amount increased 0 11 0.06
Q9. Snowstorms became stronger and more frequent 9 45 0.00
Q10. Foggy weather became more frequent 52 25 0.01
Q11. It has become more difficult to predict a snowstorm 25 63 0.02
Q12. It has become more difficult to predict good weather 61 87 0.01
Q13. It has become more difficult to predict when spring will come 100 78 0.01
Q14. Rivers and sea became covered with ice later 85 71 0.16
Q15. Snow in winter became more crumbly 18 55 0.03
Q16. It has become more difficult to travel along tundra and forest because of more hummock on rivers 30 69 0.04
Q17. It has become more difficult to travel along tundra and forest because of more swamps 10 87 0.00
Q18. It has become more difficult to travel along tundra and forest because of unpredictable weather 55 68 0.40
Q19. You can catch fewer fish 67 91 0.00
Q20.You can hunt fewer birds 30 84 0.00
Q21. You can hunt fewer wild animals 40 88 0.00
Q.22. You can gather less berries 22 95 0.00
Q23. You can gather less mushrooms 26 94 0.00
Q24. You see fewer lemmings 10 68 0.00
Q25. Reindeer grazing has become more complicated 10 88 0.00
Q26. Wild animals became lean 61 83 0.04
Q27. The amount of mosquitoes became more numerous in tundra and in forest 90 62 0.01
us really believe in that the influence of climate change on human well-being is more profound in the center of Yakutia.
Trying to find links between climate change and human health and taking into account higher vulnerability of children than adults we compared mortality and morbidity of infants living in the uluses covered by the survey (Table. 3). High variability of data, which is obviously the result of influence of other factors (small population mostly), doesn't allow us to assert such a link.
Although the incidence of the diseases associated with climate change is going upward in Yakutia both for children (Table 4) and for adults, and the index of mor-
bidity for population of Yakutia is getting higher during the last years (2010-1858.7, 2011-1863.3 per thousand), analysis of data for years 2011-2012 presented by the Federal Supervising Office for Protection of Consumers and Maintenance of Human Well-Being in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the Federal Center of Hygiene and Epidemiology in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) [6] shows that in terms of climate change-related exposures affecting the health status of people [2] the position of Gorny ulus was better than the positions of Nizhnekolymsky and Bulunsky uluses, particularly for infectious and parasite diseases, diseases of the circulatory system and the mortality index.
74
ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ СТАТЬИ
Table 3
Infant mortality and morbidity in uluses, covered by the survey, and in Yakutia in total [3]
Index Region Years
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Infant mortality per 1000 of live births Bulunsky 17.9 16.7 7.5 8.0 17.1
Nizhnekolymsky - 56.8 11.8 25.6
Gorny 9.1 34.1 4.1 9.7 5.3
Yakutia in total 11.3 10.5 10.7 9.7 9.2
Infant morbidity per 1000 of children Bulunsky 2018.5 2015.2 1728.6 1575.8 936.2
Nizhnekolymsky 2164.4 1523.8 1000.0 3725.0 3639.5
Gorny 2400.9 3209.6 2497.8 2495.7 2694.0
Yakutia in total 2730.9 2566.4 2384.9 2490.5 2633.4
Incidence of selected diseases in children aged 0 - 14 years in Yakutia in terms of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision [1]_
Class ICD 10 (version: 2010) Per 1000 of children
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Certain infectious and parasitic diseases (A00-B99) 63.5 70.7 65.6 73.4 75.9
Diseases of the circulatory system (I00-I99) 5.6 5.6 5.6 6.9 6.1
Diseases of the respiratory system (J00-J99) 954.2 1101.0 1167.1 1294.3 1398.3
Diseases of the digestive system (K00-K93) 127.7 139.5 154.7 157.4 170.0
Total 1612.4 1796.9 1904.4 2051.6 2192.8
discussion ern uluses of Yakutia belong to areas with greater tem-The results of the survey confirm the pattern of perature changes (+1-2 °C) than the northern uluses
the surface air temperature changes over the period (0.2-1.0 °C) (see Fig. 3, marked with a polygon).
1970-2004, drawn from a subset of about 29,000 data It is known that the northern uluses of Yakutia are in-
series from 577 studies, where the central and south- habited by Natives in greater extent.
Temperature change °C 1970-2004 *
1.0 -0.2 0.2 1.0 2.0 3.5
Fig. 3. Surface air temperature changes over the period 1970-2004. A subset of about 29 000 data series was selected from about 80 000 data series from 577 studies [4]. The polygon shows the points related to Yakutia
The prevalence of diseases among the Natives is high, especially for digestive diseases, diseases of the genitourinary system, of the circulatory system, of the respiratory system [3], which fact supposes existing climate change-related exposures affecting the health status. Our results can be interpreted as not supporting this hypothesis.
conclusions
1. Everyday activities of hunters, fishermen and herders living in Yakutia have changed during the last 5 years due to climate change. People living in the central part of Yakutia are affected to a greater extent, which is associated with faster warming. Those changes are supposed to be the sources of the problems with long-term and short-term weather forecast, difficulties to travel along tundra and forest, reindeer grazing, problems with fishing, hunting, gathering mushrooms and berries.
2. Tendencies of infant mortality and morbidity in the studied regions are not associated with climate change and though the morbidity in Yakutia has a tendency to grow both in adults' and in children's populations mostly due to increase in prevalence of the diseases of the respiratory, circulatory and digestive system, this fact can hardly be associated with climate change.
Acknowledgements
This paper covers the results of the research supported by grants "Health Assessment and Optimization of Medical Care to the Natives of Yakutia in Terms of Innovation and Telemedicine'' (State Program, Grant #636), and Rock Foundation, NYC, USA.
references
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2. Samoylova I. Yu. Grigoryeva V.I, Kornilova M. V. Prugo-va E. M., Kolesova E. A., Budatserenova L.V., Danilo-va M.A. (editors). Gosudarstvennyy doklad o sani-tarnom i epidemiologicheskom blagosostoyanii naseleniya v respublike Sakha (Yakutiya) v 2012 godu [State report on sanitary and epidemiological welfare of the population in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) in 2012]. Avilable: http://14.rospotrebnadzor.ru/c/ document_library/get_file?uuid=d8445258-7373 -429f-87aa-658235949a74&groupId=430992 (Accessed 25.09.2014).
3. Burtseva T. E., Uvarova T. E., Savvina M. S., Shadrin V. P., Avrusin S. L., Chasnyk V. G. Health status of native people living in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). Int J Circumpolar Health. 2013; 72: 21166-Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/ijch.v72i0.21166 (Accessed 25/09/2014).
4. Hansen J. E., Ruedy R., Sato Mki, Imhoff M., Lawrence W., Easterling D., Peterson T., Karl T. A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. J Geophys Res. 2001; 106: 23947-63. Available from: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_ v3/ (Accessed 25.09.2014).
5. Lisiecki LE, Raymo ME. A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic Ó18O records. Pa-leocenography. 2005; 20:18PA1003.
изменение климата, здоровье и благополучие человека в якутии
Шадрин В. П., Бурцева Т. Е., Аврусин С. Л., Солодкова И. В.
♦ Resume. Исследование проведено на материале социологического опроса, проведенного путем очного собеседования специалистом научно-исследовательского центра Якутска. Были опрошены в общей сложности 145 субъектов, проживающих в 8 сельских поселениях. Представленные данные показывают, что в общей сложности самые впечатляющие изменения зарегистрированы для следующих признаков: тоньше лед на реках, вода и лед в реках более мутные, количество солнечных дней больше, труднее предсказать хорошую погоду и начало весенних паводков, реки и моря покрываются льдом позже, охота, рыбалка, сбор грибов и ягод проходит не так успешно и количество комаров больше, чем это было 5 лет назад. Установлено, что повседневная деятельность охотников, рыбаков и пастухов, живущих в Якутии, изменилась в течение последних 5 лет в связи с изменением климата. Люди, живущие в центральной части Якутии, страдают в большей степени, что связано с более быстрым потеплением. Эти изменения, как предполагается, приводят к проблемам с прогнозом погоды в краткосрочной и долгосрочной перспективе, трудностями путешествий вдоль тундры и леса, с выпасом оленей, проблем с рыбалкой, охотой, сбором грибов и ягод. Тенденции младенческой смертности и заболеваемости в исследуемых регионах не связаны с изменением климата, и хотя заболеваемость в Якутии имеет тенденцию к росту как во взрослых, так и в детских популяциях в основном за счет увеличения распространенности заболеваний органов дыхания, кровообращения и пищеварительной системы, этот факт вряд ли может быть связан с изменением климата.
♦ Key words: изменение климата; заболеваемость; регионы Якутии; анкетирование.
ЛИТЕРАТУРА
1. Иванова А.Т., Петрова И. Е, Егорова Е. Е, Слепцова Д.А. Главные индексы состояния здоровья матери и ребенка в Республике Саха (Якутия) в 2005-2009. Справочник статистических данных. Якутск: МИАЦ Мин. Здравоохранения республики Саха (Якутия). 2010.
2. Самойлова И. Ю., Григорьева В.И., Корнилова М. В., Пругова Е. М., Колесова Е. А., Будатсеренова Л. В., Данилова М. А. (редакторы). Государственный доклад о санитарном и эпидемиологическом благосостоянии населения в республике Саха (Якутия) в 2012 году. Доступно: http://14.rospotrebnadzor. ш/c/document_Library/get_fiLe?uшd=d8445258-7373-4291:-87аа-658235949а74&дгоирИ=43099 2 (цитировано 25.09.2014).
3. Burtseva T. E., Uvarova T. E., Savvina M. S., Shadrin V. P., Avrusin S. L., Chasnyk V. G. Health status of native people living in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). Int J Circumpolar Health. 2013; 72: 21166-Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/ijch.v72i0.21166 (Accessed 25/09/2014).
4. Hansen J. E., Ruedy R., Sato Mki, Imhoff M., Lawrence W., Easterling D., Peterson T., Karl T. A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. J Geophys Res. 2001; 106: 23947-63. Available from: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_ v3/ (Accessed 25.09.2014).
5. Lisiecki LE, Raymo ME. A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic 518O records. Pa-leocenography. 2005; 20:18PA1003.
♦ Информация об авторах
Шадрин Виктор Павлович — канд. мед. наук, старший научный Shadrin Viktor Pavlovich — MD, PhD, Senior Researcher. Yakut Re-
сотрудник. ФГБНУ «Якутский научный центр комплексных search Center for Complex Medical Problems. 4, Sergelyakhskoe
медицинских проблем». 677009, Якутск, Сергеляхское шос- shosse, Yakutsk, 677009, Russia. E-mail: vitusha@rambler.ru. се, д. 4. E-mail: vitusha@rambler.ru.
Бурцева Татьяна Егоровна — д-р. мед. наук, заместитель ди- Burtseva Tatyana Yegorovna — MD, PhD, Dr Med Sci, Deputy
ректора по научной работе. ФГБНУ «Якутский научный центр Director Research. Yakut Research Center for Complex Medical
комплексных медицинских проблем». 677009, Якутск, Серге- Problems. 4, Sergelyakhskoe shosse, Yakutsk, 677009, Russia.
ляхское шоссе, д. 4. E-mail: bourtsevat@yandex.ru. E-mail: bourtsevat@yandex.ru.
Аврусин Сергей Львович — канд. мед. наук, доцент, кафедра Avrusin Sergey Lvovich — MD, PhD, Associate Professor, Chair of
госпитальной педиатрии. ГБОУ ВПО «Санкт-Петербургский Hospital Pediatrics. Saint Petersburg State Pediatric Medical
государственный педиатрический медицинский университет» University. 2, Litovskaya St., St. Petersburg, 194100, Russia.
Минздрава России. 194100, Санкт-Петербург, ул. Литов- E-mail: avrusin4@gmail.com. ская, д. 2. E-mail: avrusin4@gmail.com.
Солодкова Ирина Владимировна — канд. мед. наук, до- Solodkova Irina Vladimirovna — MD, PhD, Associate Professor,
цент, кафедра госпитальной педиатрии. ГБОУ ВПО «Санкт- Chair of Hospital Pediatrics. Saint Petersburg State Pediatric
Петербургский государственный педиатрический медицинский Medical University. 2, Litovskaya St., St. Petersburg, 194100,
университет» Минздрава России. 194100, Санкт-Петербург, Russia. E-mail: isolodkova@mail.ru. ул. Литовская, д. 2. E-mail: isolodkova@mail.ru.
