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CHORVACHILIKDA GO SHT ISHLAB CHIQARISHNING EKONOMETRIK TAHLILI
Raximov Abdulaxad Nematovich
(Toshkent davlat iqtisodiyot universiteti Samarqand filiali katta
o'qituvchisi) https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10730248
ARTICLE INFO
ABSTRACT
Received: 21th February 2024 Accepted: 28th February 2024 Online: 29th February 2024
KEYWORDS Regressiya, korrelyatsiya
koeffitsiyenti, tasodifiy
og^ishlarga ta^sir etuvchi omil, Fisher mezoni, natijaviy omil, ishlab chiqarish, go'sht ishlab chiqarish, sut ishlab chiqarish.
Ushbu maqola Samarqand viloyatida 2010-2023-yillarda sut va go'sht ishlab chiqarishning narxi, veterinariya xizmatlari, ish haqi, ozuqa birligi uchun qilingan xarajatlar ekonometrik modellar tahlil qilgan. Ushbu omillar sut va go'sht ishlab chiqarishga ta'siri nazariy-amaliy jihatdan tadqiq qilingan hamda ularning o^zaro ta'siri orasidagi bog'lanish modeli tuzilgan va optimal variant tanlangan.
Kirish: Samarqand viloyatida 2022-yilning 1-yanvar holatiga ko'ra o'tgan yilning shu davriga nisbatan yirik shoxli qoramollar 103,7 foizni (1 660,0 ming boshni tashkil qildi), shu jumladan sigirlar 103,2 foizni (724,1 ming bosh), qo'y va echkilar 102,3 foizni (4 525,5 ming bosh), otlar 103,6 foizni (28 243 bosh) parrandalar bosh soni 102,5 foizni (13 548,4 ming bosh) tashkil qildi. Barcha hududlarda chorvachilik mahsulotlari (go'sht, sut, tuxum) ishlab chiqarishning o'sish sur'ati asosan dehqon xo'jaliklari hisobiga bo'lib, go'sht ishlab chiqarish umumiy hajmida dehqon xo'jaliklarining ulushi 82,8 foizni, sut ishlab chiqarishda dehqon xo'jaligida 91,0 foizni, tuxum ishlab chiqarishda ulushi 52,6 foizni tashkil etdi.
Dehqon (aholining shaxsiy yordamchi) xo'jaliklarida yirik shoxli qoramollarning ulushi 93,6 foizni, fermer xo'jaliklarida esa 5,9 foizni, shu jumladan, sigirlar mos ravishda 94,0 va 5,8 foizni, qo'y va echkilar 88,2 va 8,4 foizni, otlar 82,2 va 16,8 foizni, parrandalar 35,2 va 46,4 foizni tashkil etdi. 2021-yilning yanvar-dekabr oylarida barcha toifadagi xo'jaliklarda tirik vazn hisobida 305,3 ming tonna go'sht, 1337,1 ming tonna sut, 1348,2 mln. dona tuxum ishlab chiqarildi.
Tadqiqot metodologiyasi
Ilmiy abstraksiya, kuzatish, qiyoslash, korrelyatsion-regression tahlil.
Mavzuga oid adabiyotlar tahlili
Qishloq xo'jalik mahsulotlari, xususan chorvachilik mahsulotlarini ishlab chiqarish haqida mahalliy va chet el olimlari tomonidan ilmiy-tekshirish va ilmiy tadqiqot ishlari olib borilgan. Xorij olimlari Svi Grillixes, I.Tinbergen, V.N. Afanasev, S.A. Ayvazyan, A.M.Gataulin, N.M.Goreyeva, T.A.Dubrova, L.N.Demidova, O.P.Krastin, N.Sh.Kremer, N.P.Tixomirov, I.I.Yeliseyeva, Ye.M.Chetirkin va boshqalarning ilmiy tadqiqot ishlari muhim ahamiyatga ega. Respublikamizda optimallashtirish masalalari bo'yicha tadqiqot ishlari olib borishgan
é
Ws,
Go'sht narxi, veterinariya ish haqi, Ozuqa birligi uchun qilingan xarajatlar, ming so'mda, X4
№ yillar y, tonna tonna-ming sum,X1 xizmati, ming.so'm, X2 ming so'mda, X3
1 2010 179853 759257 45 8000 20045
2 2011 191764 862528 45 8000 20063
3 2012 203783 930089 45 8000 20078
4 2013 214254 994389 45 8000 20087
5 2014 229988 1064584 50 8500 25076
6 2015 244412 1132310 50 8500 25090
7 2016 257958 1228306 50 9000 25230
8 2017 262784 1240896 55 9000 30234
1https://samstat.uz/uz/rasmiy-statistika/agriculture-2-Samarqand viloyati statistika
Innovative Academy Research Support Center UIF = 8.1 | SJIF = 7.899 www.in-academy.uz
9 2018 294647 1241843 60 9500 30564
10 2019 297332 1273938 65 9500 35450
11 2020 285998,1 1307294 75 1000 35000
12 2021 305269 1337091 78 12300 43900
13 2022 314744 1371194 81 14600 51500
Go'sht ishlab chiqarish masalasini regression-korrelyatsion tahlil qilamiz. Buning uchun kompyuter dasturlaridan biri Microsoft Excel elektron prossesoridan foydalanamiz.
— + + + + ^A X A
I. 1 0 11 22 33 4 4 regressiya uchun hisoblashlarni Excel dasturida bajaramiz.
1) Koeffitsiyentlar:
ao= -59774
ai= 0,189041
a2= 2758,436
a3= 3,684234
a4= -3,13676
Demak,
~ — -59774+ 0,18904X + 2758,436k2 + 3,684234^3 -3,684234x4 2) Styudent mezoni hisoblagan qiymatlari:
t0= 1,303444777
t1= 7,351061679
t2= 1,804494598
t3= 1,698900649
t4= 1,291523412
Jadval qiymati =CTbW£EHT.OBP.2X(0,05;8) = 2,306004.
3)Fisher mezonining hisoblagan qiymati: F=78,03073; jadval qiymati =F.OBP.nX(0,05;4;8)=3,83
4) Korrelyatsiya koeffitsiyenti:
Korrelyatsiya koeffitsiyenti R 0,987426
Determinatsiya koeffitsiyenti R-KBagpaT 0,97501
Normal R-KBagpaT 0,962514
Standart xato 8850,839
Kuzatishlar 13
it — bn + ô1ln(xl) + b2ln(x2) + b3ln(x3) + b4ln04) . , ■
II. 2011223344 regressiya uchun hisoblashlarni Excel dasturida bajaramiz.
1) Koeffitsiyentlar:
b0= -2217977
b1= 172628,9
Innovative Academy Research Support Center UIF = 8.1 | SJIF = 7.899 www.in-academy.uz
b2= 178579,7
b3= 13883,44
b4= -75817,6
Demak,
~2 = -2217977+172628,9ln(x1 ) + 178579,7ln(x2 ) + + 13883,44ln( x3 )-75817,6ln( x4 ) 2)Styudent mezoni hisoblagan qiymatlari:
t0= -8,236411359
t1= 5,959143648
t2 = 1,954129415
t3 = 1,855561826
t4= -1,051675526
Jadval qiymati =CTbW£EHT.OBP.2X(0,05;8) = 2,306004 3)Fisher mezonining hisoblagan qiymati: F= 88,31937; jadval qiymati =F.OBP.nX(0,05;4;8)=3,83 4) Korrelyatsiya koeffitsiyenti:
Korrelyasiya koeffitsiyenti R 0,988866
Determinatsiya koeffusiyenti 0,977856
R-KBagpaT
Normal R-KBagpaT 0,966785
Standart xato 8331,485
Kuzatishlar 13
c „ cn ,„ „ c.
y = c„ • Xi 1 • x~ 2 ' Xo 3 • x4 4 III. u 1 2 3 4 regressiya uchun hisoblashlarni Excel dasturida
bajaramiz.
1) Koeffitsiyentlar:
co= 0,4935949
C1 = 0,815650795
C2= 0,600964091
C3= 0,047656376
C4= -0,284829795
Demak,
y = 0,49 + U,81ln(x1 ) + 0,6ln(x2 ) + U,U47ln(x3 ) - 0,28ln(x4 )
Bu regressiya tenglamasini quyidagi ko'rinishga keltiramiz:
~3 = yoki
y3 = 1uu'49 • x0,81 • x20,6 • x30,047 • x4"0,028
y3 = 3,09^X0,81 • ^0,6 • ^0,047 • x4-0,028 2)Styudent mezoni hisoblagan qiymatlari:
é
Ws,
t0= 1,133164976
t1= 7,559625952
t2 = 1,76561329
t3 = 1,710114886
t4= -1,060774513
Jadval qiymati= =CTbW£EHT.OBP.2X(0,05;8) = 2,306004
3)Fisher mezonining hisoblagan qiymati: F=107,8113; jadval qiymati =F.OBP.nX(0,05;4;8)=3,83
4) Korrelyatsiya koeffitsiyenti:
Korrelyatsiya koeffitsiyenti R 0,990851625
Determinatsiya koeffitsiyenti R-KBagpaT 0,981786942
Normal R-KBagpaT 0,972680413
Standart xato 0,013476618
Kuzatishlar 13
Endi sut ishlab chiqarish masalasini regression-korrelyatsion tahlil qilamiz.
Tahlil va natijalar
y = -59774+ 0,18904k, + 2758,43X + 3,684234^ -3,684234x,
1) 1 1234 regressiya
a = -597744 a = 0,189041 S = 2758,436;a^ = 3,684234;a. =-3,684234 tenglamasida 0 1 234
parametrlar Styudent mezoni bo'yicha to= -1,3; ti= 7,35; t2=1,8 t3= 1,7; t4=-1,29 ni
baholashda tai>tjad bajarilsa, parametrlar ahamiyatli bo'ladi.
Bu yerda jadval qiymati =CTbW£EHT.0BP.2X(0,05;8) = 2,306004>tai (i=0,1,2,3,4)
af\ ; ; ar\ ; ; a A
ekanligidan 0 234 parametrlar muhim emas. Fisher mezoniga ko' ra Fhis>Fjad ekanligidan regressiya tenglamasini muhimligi kelib chiqadi. Fhis= 12,87516> jadval qiymati =F.OBP.nX(0,05;4;8)=3,83 ekanligidan regressya tenglamasi muhim.
y2 = -2217977+ 172628,9ln( x^ ) + 178579,7ln(x2 ) + 13883,44ln(x3 )-75817,6ln(x4 )
2)
regressiya tenglamasida
aQ = -2217977; a = 172628,9; ^ = 178579,7 ^ = 13883,44 x4 = -75817,6
parametrlar Styudent mezoni bo'yicha t0=-8,24; t1=5,96; t2=1,95; t3= 1,85; t4=-1,05 ni baholashda tai>tjad bajarilsa, parametrlar ahamiyatli bo'ladi.
Bu yerda jadval qiymati =CTbW£EHT.0BP.2X(0,05;8) = 2,306004>tai (i=0,1,2,3,4)
ar\; ai; ; a"l; a A
ekanligidan 0 234 parametrlar muhim emas. Fisher mezoniga ko' ra Fhis>Fjad ekanligidan regressiya tenglamasini muhimligi kelib chiqadi. Fhis= 12,87516> Jadval qiymati =F.OBP.nX(0,05;4;8)=3,83 ekanligidan regressiya tenglamasi muhim. Xulosa va takliflar.
Xulosa qilib aytganda natijalarga ko'ra ekonometrik tahlil yordamida
é
Ws,
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