CC BY
72
УДК 316+314.335.2
BAO LEIPING,
Research Professor, Institute of Youth and Juvenile Studies, SASS
THE CHINESE ONLY CHILD'S LIFE COuRSE:
an institutional choice under family-state relationship view1
Since China launched the One-Child Policy in 1980, the quantity of Chinese only children has ranked first in the world. It is necessary to assess the development of such a great number of "only-ones" from the perspective of the family-state relationship. Based on a national survey using 5,000 questionnaires, this paper conducts a quantitative analysis of the only-ones' life course and its influencing factors. The study finds that family-state isomorphism have not had negative effects on the developments of single-child families at present, but that the "effect of diminishing advantage" and the uniformity of public life course will bring challenges for the future development of such families. The development of family capability is indispensable in the interaction between the state and society, where family plays an intermediate role. Thus, to redefine the position of the family in state-family relations has become essential against the background of family planning policy adjustment.
Keywords: only child, life course, family-state isomorphism.
ЖИЗНЕННЫЙ КУРС ЕДИНСТВЕННОГО РЕБЕНКА В СЕМЬЕ: ИНСТИТУЦИОНАЛЬНЫЙ ВЫБОР В РАМКАх СЕМЕЙНЫх
ОТНОШЕНИЙ
С тех пор как Китай начал однодетную политику (одна семья - один ребенок) в 1980 г., количество китайских однодетных семей заняло первое место в мире. Необходимо оценить степень развития такого большого количества «единственных детей» с точки зрения семейных отношений. На основании национального исследования с использованием 5000 анкет в этой статье приведен количественный анализ жизненного курса «единственных детей» и влияющие на них факторы. Исследование показало, что в настоящее время семейно-госу-дарственный изоморфизм не имеет негативного воздействия на развитие семей с одним ребенком, но «эффект убывающего преимущества» и единообразие курса общественной жизни принесет проблемы для будущего развития таких семей. Развитие семейного потенциала является незаменимым во взаимодействии между государством и обществом, где семья играет промежуточную роль посредника. Таким образом, пересмотр положения семьи в государственно-семейных отношениях стал необходимым на фоне корректировки политики планирования семьи.
Ключевые слова: единственный ребенок в семье, жизненный курс, семейно-государствен-ный изоморфизм.
1 Сокращено по: Leiping Bao. The Chinese Only Child's Life: Course: An Institutional Choice under Family-State Relationship View // J. of Social Sciences. Vol. 5. 2012.
The "Family-state Isomorphism" which has lasted for thousands of years in China and the "Unit System" in the planned economy era once constructed two unique social governance and development models for China. Since the implementation of reform and opening up policy and under the impact of market economy and the rapid transformation of economic society, the "Unit System" model has basically collapsed, and the declining of the family power has also impacted the Family-state Isomorphism in certain way. Some scholars proposed that, the "State-society" go vernance model skipping over the intermediate organization, is similar to the modern society structure model of the western industrial society in some way. And as a politics tactic, it might be more efficient and resourceful. The new model has sufficiently released the freedom space for individual development, and at the same time, has also made the influence of family or units gradually declined, therefore, the relationship between the state and the individual has become more and more close. In such a context, it is of particular significance to use the life course paradigm to discuss and analyze the only-child group in the contemporary China, and analyze the implicit interactive mode between the "state" and the "society".
1. Proposal of the Issue
In the recent decade, many domestic scholars1 have tried to use life course paradigm to study the major social events during the reform and opening up course in China, such as education reform, laid-off and unemployment, migration of three gorges and social insurance reform, and discuss the influence of those policy changes or major social events on specific populations and specific living areas. However, their literature focused more on the analysis of such traditional sociology concepts as stratification and mobility, and few studies have been conducted on the influence mechanism of state behaviors.
The exploration of Karl Mayer and other scholars from Max Planck Institute in Germany contributed to the study of applying the life course paradigm to the relationship of "state-individual". They innovatively put forwarded that "state" is of great importance in the life course. It's through utilizing the social policies and mechanisms that the welfare states, in industrial society, produced a set of institutionalized life course, such as marriage, childbirth, education, employment, promotion and retirement, all have the whole sets of standard and rules. Such institutionalized life course, not only has weakened the power which was originally decided by family and private sphere in traditional society, but also has promoted different individuals to arrange their life courses in accordance with the same mode.
Besides, such institutionalized life course also has the characteristic of globalization. With the increasing possibility of information exchange, countries have began to learn policies from each other to reduce the uncertainty of risk society, which has also made the individual life course across the world began to have more sequence similarity and speed similarity. Some scholars use the phrase "public life course" to name the same social route: "social institution plays a role of classification to standardize the turning point of the individual and turn the individual's life stage into separate public events, becoming the 'public life course'.
Since this century, family planning has become an important approach for the population strategy of each nation. And in the individual level, it has also become one of the most important institutional approaches influencing the fertility decisionmaking in the individual and private spheres. Chinese families have traditionally been famous for valuing inheritance and posterity. The one-child policy, with the issuing of the Open Letter in 1980 as the mark, has been actively supported by tens of thousands of families, although it has also met some resistance and revolt, overall, the state will which is demonstrated in the form of family planning policy has been fully practiced and implemented. The result has its historical inevitability.
First of all, over the 30 years since the one-child policy was implemented, the performance evaluation on the policy shows that, the implementation of the policy has indeed promoted the population control level where more than 100 million new-borns have been reduced in the 30 years, which has greatly saved social resources, effectively promoted the political, economic and cultural development of the nation, and has also lifted up the living standard of the family.
However, with the continuing implementation of the policy, it has also been questioned. For example, some studies show that, by comparing the population control effects in different policy periods, the broad family planning period (1968-1979) was better than the one-child policy period (after 1980). Besides, former period also paid more attention to the choice right of birth of the family, and it made success both in the urban and rural areas. Some studies put forward that, the one-child policy was especially not good for the agriculture production of rural families. It is because that rural economic system reform has weakened the production and allocation functions of the collective economy, and strengthened those of the family economy. However, the nation's "increasing tightening" in the macro population control and micro birth policy has made the rural families incapable of solving the contradiction between the family economic production model and the state-regulated birth behaviors, hence new poverty problems emerged which led to the intense contradiction between the state and the family. However, owing to the lack of the study on both the urban and rural areas, currently those views still lack powerful support from quantitative research data.
In fact, when the Open Letter was issued, the policy makers predicted the aging and gender imbalance issues which might be encountered during the implementation of the one-child policy, and has listed a series of data to prove the population control effect of the loose policies which was represented by "late, sparse and less".
What are the factors that made the government overcome the resistance, decide to adopt the severe one-child policy, and make it a national behavior in the end since knowing the one-child policy might bring adverse results and having also realized the effectiveness of the loose policy?
The Open Letter repeatedly mentioned "change the poverty and backwardness in a short time", "save money for development of economy and culture and education causes" and "directly influence the accumulation of funds that are needed for the modern construction". From those words, it can be seen that the thing that
moved the policy makers most was that they were convinced the implementation of one-child policy can lay a solid foundation for the "reform and opening up".
In that social development stage, only unloading the burden of Chinese population as soon as possible can create the best conditions to unleash the economy development. This judgment prompted the decision makers to choose to turn from the loose population regulation policy [1] which had become effective to the more severe birth control policy for the realization of the optimization of "efficiency". Besides, the rigid "one couple with only one child" rule, compared with the proposed policy "one child is the best, two children is the most", could skip over the interference of such intermediate organization as the "family", and applied the institution to change the individual birth behavior directly, so as to unload population burden quickly. Under the advocacy and mobilization, thousands of families gave up the birth right of more than one child, which was also derived from their support and expectation toward the public good of reform and opening up and wealthy and strong country.
This study tries to analyze, under the local cultural environment of China, the influence approaches of the state policy on the individual life course. Therefore, besides state behavior and mechanism, this study also tries to combine such variables as family and urban and rural areas to analyze the interactive model between the state and the individual during this process. Therefore, this study has the following two basic targets:
Target 1. Study the mechanism in which the state behaviors influence the individual development. Under the Chinese cultural environment, what is the mechanism in which the state policy influences the birth choice? Is the "three models" assumption (age line, qualification line and fragment policy line) of Mayer and others valid? Is the family variable still effective in it?
Target 2. Evaluate the long-term influence of the one-child policy on the family and the individual. Whether they conform to the state policy? Does the policy influence the family? For the influence, is there any difference between the urban and rural areas?
2. Survey Data
This study is based on the data from the large sample survey of the national college graduates of 2010. This survey was launched by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences with the participation of seven colleges and universities across the nation. The data collection was entrusted to MyCOS Education and Consulting Co., Ltd and investigation was conducted on college graduates in the recent 8 years (i. e. 2003~2010) across the country.
The samples were taken from 7 provinces in the country (Jiangsu, Guangdong, Chongqing, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Jilin and Hubei), with each province representing one geographical area in China, i. e. Southeast, South China, Southwest, Northwest, North China, Northeast and the Central Area. One college was chosen from each province, and the 7 colleges consisted of 6 listed in "Project 985" and 1 common college. The selection of the survey objects using random sampling was based on the graduates lists provided by the colleges. Email was applied to contact
the chosen objects and ask them to log on the online investigation system for the survey. The survey ended when the survey response rate of the graduates in each college reached 50 %.
The content of the questionnaire involved both the graduate and the family. Such information as only-child or not, education level, marital status, birth, work, income and the time of specific life events were asked about the graduates; besides, information related to their family backgrounds were also investigated, including parents' education level, family economic condition, career conditions, etc.
The samples included graduates of 1970s generation, 1980s generation and a few 1990s generation college students. Because this study mainly focuses on the life courses of the only-child born around the beginning of the reform and opening up, in the analysis, only those 1970s and 1980s are included, and the 1990s and the cases with default items were deleted. The total cases are 5,599, with 2,295 being the only-child, accounting for 41,0 %. The basic conditions of the samples are as follows (table 1).
Table 1. The basic structure of the national graduates survey samples
Number Percentage
Only-child or not? Only-child 2295 41,0
Non-only-child 3304 59,0
Gender Male 3701 66,1
Female 1897 33,9
Generation Born in the 1970s 597 10,6
Born between 1980 and 1984 2172 38,8
Born between 1985 and 1989 2832 50,6
Registered residence (source of students) Urban 3155 56,3
Rural 2444 43,7
The interviewed cases focused on the 1980s generation with 11 students from the colleges in Shanghai were interviewed. Three of them are only-children, and 8 of them are non-only-children; three of them are urban residents, and 8 rural residents. The respondents were from Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Sichuan, Shanxi and Shanghai respectively with education levels all above junior college in which 5 being university students (4 graduates and 1 undergraduate), and 6 being on the job.
3. Study Results
3.1. The Mechanism through which State Policy Influences Family Birth Decisions
Did the three mechanisms of age line, identity line and the fragment policy line play their roles in the family birth decision? The following variables will be especially considered in analyzing the influence mechanism of the policy.
Dependent variable: whether the family has only-child.
Variables:
Age line - In accordance with the above analysis, the implementation of the one-child policy started from 1980 (the starting time for the implementation of the re-
form and opening up and the one-child policy). Before 1980, the family still had certain birth choice right, but after 1980, the family's choice right vanished relatively, and they could only decide to choose the only-child or not in accordance with the urban and rural identities and the areas with different policies. After 1985, because the family planning policy in some areas was loose, compared with the beginning of the 1980s, the execution methods of the policy had some loopholes. In accordance with the different stages of the policy, the respondents were classified into three contiguous birth groups, namely born in the broad family planning period (before 1979), the early stage of the reform and opening up (1980-1984) and the middle stage of the reform and opening up (1985-1990). The study on the one-child policy shows that, before 1979, the birth policy with the features of "late, sparse and less" was relatively loose, while in the early stage of the reform and opening up, the implementation of the one-child policy was the most strict, however, after 1984 with various critical comments, the one-child policy also began to be implemented in the method of "small changes" which was more human-centered. Therefore, when assigning the value, in accordance with the policy strictness, we assign value 1 to the early stage of the reform and opening up, 2 to the middle stage, and 3 to the broad family planning period.
Qualification line - Analyze the influence of urban and rural identities on the birth decision.
Fragment policy line - To classify in accordance with the previous mentioned four areas that implement different policies proposed by Guo Zhigang.
3.2. The Influence of the one-Child Policy on the Social and Economic Status of the Family
As mentioned in the previous text, the one-child policy and its implementation, as national behaviors, meets its largest resistance from the practice in the rural areas. Although the rural areas have widely implemented the loose policy "if the first child is a girl, family can have a second child", the family planning policy was still harder to be implemented than in the urban areas [2]. In the 111 980s youths interviewed, only one only-child comes from the rural area, and other rural 1980s youths all come from families with more than one child. In the interview, they also mentioned that only-child is very rare in their villages or neighboring villages. No. 3 interviewee's opinion is representative, "The country just began to implement the plan, parents in the rural areas were greatly influenced by the traditional concepts, therefore, like most rural families, (the family planning policy) for them, was still a shock". The shock not only comes from the reform of the birth concept, but also comes from the concern that the rural family production model's demand for labor cannot be satisfied and will reduce the family living standard.
In 1983, Bian Yanjie's study on 1,088 urban and rural households in Tianjin did not support the above concern. He found that, owing to the reduction of the fostering cost, the economic income of the only-child family was generally higher than that of the family with more children, and their family income was relatively stable. However, Mr. Bian assumed that, after the children grow up, family-oriented farming's objective demands for labor, may still results in changes of the situation.
Then, for only-child families, will their social and economic status be damaged after their children grow up? The study tries to answer this question first by adopting family income, occupational status [3], and education level the three indexes to compare the social and economic statuses (SES) of the urban and rural families. The descriptions of the variables are as follows:
Dependent variable:
Family social and political and economic status (SES): the social, political and economic statuses of the two kinds of families (only-child family and multi-child family), including income, occupational status and education level. The score of the SES is the sum of the three aspects, i. e. family income, occupational status and education level.
Independent variable: take whether choosing the only-child as the main influence factor.
Controlled variable: nationality, gender of children, region and others will be used as controlled variables and be included in the model.
Nationality: Han nationality is 1, and other nationalities are 0;
Gender of the children: Male is 1, female is 2;
Birth group: 1970s birth group is 1, 1980-1984 birth group is 2, and 1985-1989 birth group is 3.
Table 2 is the comparison of the social and economic statuses between the urban and rural families, and table 3 is the regression analysis result after the controlled variables are added.
The data shows that:
1. Family choosing bearing only-child has significant advantages in SES status. Bearing only-child has actively influenced on SES status of the family which will remain after the only-child grows up. Only-child family has a higher social hierarchy and better economic condition and the education levels of the parents are higher. In table 2, the significance test results show that the comparisons of SES variables - family income, occupational status and education level of parents, are significant in the .000 level. In table 3, the regression test also further supports the assumption that family choosing bearing only-child has a higher SES status. After controlling such factors as urban and rural areas, gender, nationality and birth group, "bearing only-child or not" has demonstrated its significant influence on the SES status of the family. It can be seen from the regression coefficient B value that, the influence of the variable on the SES status of the family is only second to the factor of "urban and rural areas".
In the interview, Case 11, a post-1980 who comes from the non-only-child family in the city said that, "The family conditions of the only-child family and the non-only-child family are not the same. Only-child family is richer, and has much better conditions than non-only-child family in foods and clothes". Case 3 believes that the different economic levels are due to the difference between the urban and rural areas: "The only-child family in the city has better economic condition than the non-only-child family in the rural area". Case 8 also mentioned "The only children around me generally have better family condition, and are all from the urban area".
2. Through comparison between urban and rural areas, it found that rural family choosing only-child has a significant higher SES status. Although urban and rural
Table 2. Comparison of the SES differences between the urban and rural families
Items Rural area Urban area
Only-child Non-only-child Significance test Only-child Non-only-child Significance test
SES score* 19.57 15.76 10.96*** 29.95 23.68 17.97***
Subjective family income level a (compared with other students) 3.03 2.97 8.47*** 3.13 2.75 14.18***
Family income level b 4.21 3.57 10.20*** 6.23 4.57 14.94***
Occupational status of father c 2.56 2.18 3.70*** 6.50 5.49 8.87***
Occupational status of mother c 2.84 2.31 4.96*** 5.44 3.99 14.10***
Education level of father d 3.29 3.01 4.18*** 4.55 3.73 17.19 ***
Education level of mother d 3.19 2.40 12.55*** 4.20 3.18 22.72***
Number of samples 2444 - - 3155 - -
Table 3. The regression test result of the influence of choosing only-child on the SES of Chinese family
Effect B value Standard error T Sig.
Intercept 32.63 .69 47.61 .000
Bear only-child or not? 5.40 .25 21.28 .000
Urban and rural areas -8.55 .25 -34.39 .000
Gender -1.30 .23 -5.55 .000
Nationality -1.12 .39 -2.84 .005
Birth group 0.81 .39 4.84 .000
R =.64, adjusted R2 = .40, F = 622.13***
areas are the most important factors affecting the social and economic status of the family, after controlling the urban and rural differences, the family SES statuses still have significant differences whether they choose the only-child or not. The data show that, in the urban and rural areas, families choosing only-child, compared with families that did not choose only-child, have significant higher SES status, and the income difference is the most significant one. The only-child family in the urban area has a significant better economic condition than the non-only-child family, and the economic condition of rural only-child family has reached the level near that of the urban non-only-child family.
In the interview, the only only-child from the rural area said that, "At that time, my family was one of the rare families in my village who has savings... around 952003, my family conditions were very good. In our village, we usually buy meat" (Case 7). Some non-only-children from the rural area also told about their family conditions, "At normal time, we don't feel the only-child has better conditions, but when it is involved with the marriage-related economic issue, the majority of parents hope to foster fewer children" (Case 2). "Even in current price and consumption condition, for most ordinary people, they can afford to bear the children, but can not afford to bring them up. However, after my brother got married, he changed his attitude, and he thinks the only-child will be better. for having only one child means
less pressure" (Case 8). "There are not many only-children around me, and compared with the non-only-child family, the only-child family has better conditions" (Case 4).
The occupational status and the education level of the parents of the only-child being higher are also verified. In the interview, the post-1980 youth, based on their feeling of daily life, said that, "parents of the only-child family certainly have received higher education" (Case 1). Data in table 2 show that, the occupational status and education level of parents of the only-child family are obviously higher than that of the parents of the non-only-child family. In the comparison between the urban and rural areas, this difference is still significant in the .000 level. The regression analysis in table 3 further shows that, after controlling the urban and rural areas, gender and nationality factors, whether choosing only-child or not, still has a significant influence on the overall SES status of the family.
3. The production mode in the rural family has changed, and the farming percentage of the parents of the only-child became lower. The investigation found that, even among the same rural families, the difference of the occupational status still exists, and rural families are not all "farming". The Chi-square analysis shows that, in the only-child family in the rural area, the percentage of father farming only accounts for 41,4 %, and the mother 50,3 %; in the non-only-child family in the rural area, the percentage of father farming is 22,2 % higher than that of father of the only-child family, reaching 63,6 %; mother is 22,8 % higher, reaching 73,0 %. In the Pearson Chi-square test, the difference between the two kinds of families is significant (occupation of father = 91.95, P < .000; occupation of mother = 176.50, P < .000).
Why the parents of the only-child family in the rural area have a lower "farming" proportion? To analyze this issue, it should be combined with the large background of the population mobility of the urban and rural areas in China. Although the only-child family in the rural area has disadvantage in next-generation labor force when facing the agricultural production, it can be seen from the significant difference between the occupational statuses of the two kinds of families that, the reduction of the fostering burden also provides more chances for the adults of the family to work outside to do such jobs as worker, self-employed, staff and private enterprise owner, so as to lift their own income level and hierarchy status. The relationship between the family income and the farming is gradually going down.
In the interview, Case 2, a young man from the multi-child family of the rural area, said that for the only-children around him in the rural area, "the occupations of their parents are not just farmers, but the only-child families would also do the farming work more or less". Case 5 said that, labor force is no longer the major problem in the rural area. Depending on the number of children to solve the labor force issue is very rare now. "During the busy days, most of the farming is mechanically finished, or hired workers will be employed... the children generally do the housework at home". Case 7, an only-child from the rural area, said that for the family burden was light in the early stage, the father began to do some sideline of business besides the farming: "raise the rabbit, raise sheep, sell fruits, sell goods in the rural area, and now work in other places". Compared with the non-only-child family, they break away from the farming earlier.
3.3. The Particular Development Path of the Only Child
This study adopts the first occupation income, income change, economic dependence and the acquisition of the first occupation to compare the situations of the only-child and the non-only-child after they stepped into the society.
Income and income change: to evaluate the economic change of the college graduates, "overall monthly income" was defined as income including the basic income, bonus and part-time income. Two time points were chosen, i. e. the income when graduate and the current income, to analyze the change of the income.
Economic dependence: by directly asking the college graduates whether they receive family financial aid to learn their economic dependence on the parents, so as to compare the difference between the only-child graduates and the non-only-child graduates.
The acquisition of the first occupation: mainly through interview to compare the occupation acquisition of the only-child and the non-only-child after they graduate.
The data shows that the only child has advantages in all aspects that the ordinary youth don not enjoy when they first stepped into the society: they have higher income for their first occupations, 3,549 in average, nearly 700 higher than that of the non-only-child every month; only-child owning private cars accounts for a higher percentage, i. e. 11,2 %, 2 % higher than the non-only-child.
However, it is worthy of concern that with the change of time after they enter the society, the advantages of the only-child are gradually diminishing. In the comparison of current income, the advantages of the only-child are no longer obvious (table 4).
Table 4. The comparison of the SES statuses of the two kinds of graduates after they enter the society
Variable | Only-child | Non-only-child
Income
Income of the first occupation (yuan) 3549.13 2892.58
Number of respondents (person) 1435 2077
Current income (yuan) 6413.71 6252.44
Number of respondents 361 655
First occupation t test t = -6.74, P < .000***; current income t test t = -.31, P = .76
Property housing
No 76,0 % 77,9 %
Yes 24,0 % 22,1 %
Number of respondents 1891 2621
Pearson Chi-square test: x2 = 2.29; d.f. = 1; P = .13
Private car
Yes 88,8 % 91,0 %
No 11,2 % 9,0 %
Number of respondents 1891 2621
Pearson Chi-square test: x2 = 5.50; d.f. = 1; P < .05*
* p < .05 ** p < .01 *** p < .001 (two-tailed test).
In the Chi-square analysis for the economic dependence, 33,3 % only-child admitted that they still receive economic aid from their parents, but the percentage
of the non-only-child is 10,2 % lower. The differences are significant (x2 = 65.41; d.f. = 1; P < .000***).
Through interview, the study further found out the acquisition modes for the first occupations of the only-child and the non-only-child after graduation. Many graduates said that, the only-child got more support from the parents in seeking the first job. For example, Case 11 mentioned "of course, for the only-child, parents will try their best to help their children finding jobs and fostering the grandchildren; after all they have only one child" (and Case 7). "In the aspect of work, the parents of the only-child tend to try their best. Some parents of the only-child I know will do their best to help their children. They even will pull endless wires, send presents or treat others to help their children. It is obviously common in the fields of civil servant, institutions and large enterprises. In marriage, parents of the only-child will also try their best to buy cars and houses for the children" (Case 2). Obviously, from the perspective of the college graduates, the ways to acquire the first occupation of the only-child and the non-only-child are different, and the only-child would find better jobs or jobs with higher income, which is probably related to the assistance from the parents.
4. Discussion and Suggestion
Based on the above empirical analysis, this study held the opinion that, in analyzing the life course of the only-children, findings and issues of the following are worthy of further discussion by scholars and the policy-makers in the future.
4.1. The Institutional birth choice under the background of social vicissitude has not influenced the social and economic status of certain families
For the 1980s college students group involved in this survey, although the one-child policy has influenced and changed the birth choice of those students' families, it has not, as the researchers had worried about, brought insurmountable difficulties to the production mode or labor force quantity of the urban and rural families. On the contrary, it can be seen from the objective evaluation result that, the only-child family has certain superior social and economic status which has brought benefits for the individual's development.
The Open Letter requires the family to contribute to the development of the economy, culture and education causes of the state. In fact, after the foundation of the People's Republic of China, the national government has always "regarded the marriage and family as important parts for the construction of the new China", and the family also has made the state development as the precondition for the family development. This new family-state isomorphism, which is different from the traditional society, has fueled the family with new vitality under the background of social vicissitude. For example, in the rural area, although the only-child family structure has led to the reduction of the labor force, the reform and opening up has brought huge changes for the traditional production mode. The original living mode based on the small peasant economy has gradually been replaced by the mode of migrating to the city for work, and the land is no longer the only measure for the farmers
to make a living. The reform of the traditional production mode has objectively offset the negative influence brought by the inadequacy of the labor force.
Besides, families choosing the one-child, since cost in the fostering stage has been saved, will invest more in the children's education, and the children will get more support from their family in seeking jobs, thus it would be easier for them to find better jobs when they just enter into the society. Such advantage is also reflected in the rural families.
4.2. The existence of "public life course" has a higher demand for the predictable social policy
The 1980s only-children, owing to the close attention from their parents, follow the development route regulated by the society more strictly. They enter school, study, receive education, have love affairs and work in a timely manner. Different from the frustrated destiny of the previous generations, the public life course of them reflects more the standardized creation of the modern industrial society to the individual life trajectory.
On the other hand, this study also shows that, although, in entering the society, the only-children have the advantages that the children from families of other structures do not have, with the increasing of time, such advantages will gradually diminish. For example, Case 9 mentioned the issue of caring for the aged, "The current social security is not complete, for example, caring for the aged mainly depends on the children. And the families conducting the family planning, after the children grow up, will shoulder the duty of caring for the four aged people of both sides, which has increased the burden of children born under the policy of family planning". Case 2 mentioned the issue of labor force: "My mother got ill this year, and I work in Beijing. After discussion with my brothers and sisters, we decided to bring my mother to Beijing to see the doctor. the hospital, expense and schedule are all decided. my sister went back home to take care of my father and sister-in-law (and the children). This event had a great impact on my mother, and she said that in the only-child family, such thing would not be easy". Case 1 mentioned the caring among siblings: "In the aspect of family love, we can take care of each other". However, compared with the period of childhood, Case 7 has experienced drop of family income as he keeps studying for graduate. The tuition fee and living expense have increased while his father has a limited income. On the contrary, among the relatives, in the multi-child families, for the children have began to work and earn money, the pressure for fostering children is eased, so their current income are better than that of Case 7. In the Case interview, the 1980s said that, although the only-children have certain advantages in aspects of marriage and birth, however, in the issue of caring for the aged, they face many insurmountable problems.
In Bian Yanjie's early study on the fostering cost for family children, he guessed that the social and economic status challenge for the only-child family often occurs in the late stage after the only-child grows up; Gui Shixun also put forward that, the "four-two-one" and "four-two-two" family structures will make Chinese society face the challenge for the issue of caring for the aged in the future. Combined with
the advantage diminishing phenomenon proposed in this study, it is very necessary to consider ahead the aged issue the 1980s only-children and their families might encounter from the policy level.
The Sixth Census data shows that, Chinese children aged between 0-14 have dropped to 16,6 %, and aged people above 60 years old have rose 8,5 %, and this trend will continue to strength in the future. When the majority of the only-child families, in accordance with the regulation of the public life course, enter the stage of caring for the aged, on one hand, the inverted-pyramid family structure, make the only-children at the bottom unable to bear the duty of caring for the parents only by the limited family resource; on the other hand, for medical care, pension and other urban and rural social security resources, if the increment are not expanded in advance or pre-proposals are not put forward, it will face unprecedented challenges. For the rural only-child families, the increasing of ages, dropping of the work ability and such barriers as urban education, medical care and living resource will make it hard to solve the issue of staying at home in rural areas. When the caring needs for the parents and the children increase, the predicament they face might be even severer than that of the urban only-child family.
4.3. In the interactive process of state-society, the operation mechanism for the state behavior will be restricted if the family, as the intermediate organization, is without necessary policy support
The operation mechanism for the birth policy in force, in fact, ignores the role of the family, the intermediate organization in the state-society interactive process. The family no longer needs to make choice for the birth number in accordance with its own needs. For this ignorance, it is mentioned in the text above that some scholar made the positive explanation, believing that the "state-individual" governance mode by skipping over the intermediate organization, is more efficient and strategic. It fully released the freedom for individual development, and has also made the influence of family or units gradually declined, and therefore, the relationship between the state and the individual has become more and more close.
However, in Chinese culture, family plays a fundamental role for the stability and harmony of the state. Currently, many links in the public life course, such as caring for the children, education and caring for the aged, cannot be fully or individually solved only by the state. The disruption of the "unit" system and the lack of many elements in the welfare system made the family still play the major role in solving those key life events. Under the current social development conditions, the state-individual relationship completely skipping over the family, the intermediate organization, is risky for both the state and the individual.
This paper emphasizes that, with the advent of the structural change of the population development, the one-child policy is bound to face transformation and adjustment in the future. The early stage development of the 1980s only-children benefit from the miniaturization of the family size, but the same miniaturized family might encounter greater risk in the future life course. Therefore, related policy adjustment, besides taking the number of birth as the breakthrough point, shall also,
from both the society and family levels, analyze the development risk the over 100 million only-child families face, consider in advance how to support those families to overcome the difficulties in tending and caring for the aged from the policy level, estimate the social security pressure the only-children might face after they go into the maturity period and put forward targeted adjustment and operation plans as soon as possible.
References
1. Mayer, K. U. The State and the Life Course / K. U. Mayer, W. Muller // Human Development and the Life Course: Multidisciplinary Perspectives / eds.: A. S0rensen, F. E. Weinert, L. R. Sher-rod. - Hilisdale, NJ : Erlbaum, 1986. - P. 217-245.
2. Elder, G. H. Children of the Great Depression / G. H. Elder. - Nanjing : Yilin Press, 2002.
3. Liang Zhongtang. Study on the Background of the One-child Birth Policy, 21st Century / Liang Zhongtang // The Chinese Univ. of Hong Kong. - 2009. - N 2.
Date accepted 18.10.2015.
