CHANGING TRENDS IN GLOBAL MIGRATION FLOWS Текст научной статьи по специальности «Экономика и бизнес»

ARMENIA AND WORLD

CHANGING TRENDS IN GLOBAL MIGRATION FLOWS

DOI: 10.52174/2579-2989_2021_6_36

Vahe BULANIKYAN

PhD in Economics, assistant professor

In 1994, he graduated from ASUE, and studied at the graduate school of ASUE in 1994-1997, specializing in "Economic theory". Since 1998 Vahe has been engaged in scientific and pedagogical activities at the department of theo-economics, first as an assistant, then as an assistant professor. Since 2018 he has been a senior researcher at Amberd Research Center ASUE, and he is an author of about 50 scientific works.

© https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0609-2837

Key words: pandemic, migration, Immigration, labor migrants

The article discusses the issues of changes in global migration flows related to COVID-19. In particular, it is noted that the effects of the migration epidemic in the migration sector may be long-term, as the sharp decline in migration flows around the world coincided with deep reorganizations in the field of employment, which had a negative impact on the socio-economic situation of countries. The crisis of2020-2021 may lead to a radical overhaul of migration, especially labor migration. Countries involved in migration can be divided into three groups. The first group includes countries of traditional immigration: USA, Canada, Australia, etc. The second group includes countries that have had to encourage labor migration (Gulf countries). The third group consists of countries that can play two or three roles at once in the global migration chain (such as emigration, immigration and transit).

The article also referred to the migration processes taking place in Armenia in recent years. As a result of the analysis, the positive and negative aspects of the impact of immigration processes on Armenia were presented.

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"he consequences of the pandemic in the migration sphere may be much longer and very unexpected, since a sharp reduction - and somewhere complete blocking - in migration flows coincided with a profound restructuring in the field of employment and had a negative impact on the socio-economic situation not only

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-urbanized-countries

Report2000 of the year Report 3020 of the year

Estimated number of international migrants 150 million 272 million

Estimated share of m grants in the world population 2.Ъ% 3.5%

Estimated share of women among international migrants 47.5% 47.9%

Es-tmated proport'on of children among international migrants 16,0% 13.9%

Region with the highest proportion of international migrants Oceania (3cean ia

Country with the highest proportion of international migrants UAE UAE

Number of migrant workers — 164 million

The total volume of international money transfers (in USD) 126 billion 689 billion

Number of refugees 14 million 25.9 million

Number of internally displaced persons 21 million 41.3 million

Number of stateless persons 3.9 million

in the sending countries, but also in the receiving countries.

The 2020-2021 crisis could lead to a radical revision of attitudes towards migration, especially labor migration, as well as entail changes in relevant aspects on political platforms.

COVID-19 pandemic severely restricted international migration due to closed borders and forced millions of people to return home, to their homeland, according to expert estimates.2 The pandemic has reduced the number of international migrants by about 2 million by mid-2020, to 281 million, up from the expected 283 million. In 2020, immigration to the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has halved since 2019, with Canada having a 45 percent drop in migrant arrivals and a 70 percent drop in Australia. To compensate negative impact on its economy, Canada launched an immigrant recruitment program 400 thousand people each in 2021, 2022 and 2023. The number of migrants who arrived to Saudi Arabia, decreased tenfold.3

For example, the volume of international remittances grew from 126 billion in 2000

to 689 billion in 2020, highlighting the importance of international migration as a driving force for development.

Countries hosting migrants around the world can be classified into the following groups.

1. The first includes traditional immigration countries, including the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Israel and South Africa (the latter today loses professional and intellectual elite, leaving for other countries). These countries targeted at generations attracted both migrants and elite groups from abroad. With the number of immigrants the United States of America are on the first place, where 44.9 million people born in other countries lived based on 2019 statistics (which was 13.7 percent of the country's population - a record over the past hundred years).4

2. States faced with explosive economic growth in recent decades and forced to stimulate large-scale labor immigration -as an elite, so and low-qualified. Typical representatives of this group are the countries of the Persian Gulf. In most of these countries the situation is even more complicated by the authoritarian nature

1 World migration report 2020, https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/wmr_2020.pdf

2 Щербакова Е. Международная миграция по оценкам ООН 2020 года // Демоскоп Weekly. № 889-890. 2021. URL: http://demoscope.ru/weekly/2021/0889/barom01.php

3 Kauffmann S. Au-delà de 2021, la pandémie continuera de bouleverser les fl ux migratoires // Le Monde. 17 mars 2021. URL: https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2021/03/17/au-dela-de-2021-la-pandemie-continuerade-bouleverser-les-fl ux-migra-toires_6073390_3232.html ; https://www.inopressa.ru/article/17Mar2021/ lemonde/migration.html

4 U.S. Immigrant Population and Share over Time, 1850 - Present. Migration Policy Institute. URL: https://www. migrationpolicy.org/programs/data-hub/charts/immigrant-population-over-time

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of their political systems and the extreme weakness of civil society. Between those in many of these migrants have long been the majority of the population (in particular, their share in the UAE in the population was 84 percent in 2013, in Qatar - 74 percent, in Kuwait - 60 percent, and in Bahrain - 55 percent).5 In 2019, only in the countries of the Persian Bay, Jordan and Lebanon were 35 million migrants, of which 31 percent are women. The population of the bay countries is an average of 70.4 percent, varying from 56 to 93 percent.6 Migrants in many countries of this group are forced to exist in conditions of open discrimination, the extreme weakness of civil society and a hard limitation of their rights.

3. The third group represents a number of states that can play two or three roles at once in the world of migration chain (as countries emigration, immigration and / or transit migration). It is characteristic of Russia, all BRICS member states, as well as for a number of South and Eastern countries in Europe and post-Soviet states.

Pandemic influenced the typical politician attitude to migrants in all three groups of countries, and the differences were observed not only between, but also inside them.

Migrants turned out to be widely represented in the population of many countries.

When the main blow of the pandemic came, their share was 3.7 percent in the population of 14 of 20 countries with the highest indicators of COVID-19 contamination (compared with the Migrant Share of 3.6 percent on average around the world). At the same time, in the nine countries of this group, the proportion of migrants in the population exceeded 7 percent 16.7

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a worldwide crisis. The full scale of the

consequences in the form of human sacrifice and the impact on all spheres of life and society still remain unaccounted for. It particularly influenced health care, social and economic structure of society, placing pressure on countries and response efforts. Meanwhile, the pandemic has exposed systemic drivers of inequality, including number affecting mainly migrants. Some of the measures taken by governments to contain the pandemic further revealed existing deficiencies in human rights and governance and exacerbated the vulnerability of people of low socioeconomic status, including migrants. In response to the pandemic, most countries have introduced restrictions on the movement of migrants including the humanitarian sphere. Only in the period from the date of the official announcement of the pandemic COVID-19 by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020 to February 22, 2021, the introduction of 105 thousand of all sorts of restrictions imposed on the territorial movement of the population was recorded (although 795 exceptions were taken from these rules in 189 countries).8 As a result, the migration flow by the middle of 2020 decreased by about 2 million compared to those forecasts that were made before the start of the pandemic.

A sharp reduction in immigration leads not only to the lack of labour, but also to the change of the demographic situation in many host countries. In particular, it is expected that in Australia in 2020-2021 for the first time since 1945 a negative migration increase will be recorded (in 72 thousand people) and the smallest cumulative population growth for a century - 0.2 percent. At the same time, new estimates show that the population of the country in 2031 will be for 1.1 million less than expected

Inkpen C. 7 Facts About World Migration. Pew Research Center. 2.09.2014. URL: http://www.pewresearch.org/ fact-tank/2014/09/02/7-facts-about-world-migration/

Labour Migration. International Labour Organization. URL: https://www.ilo.org/beirut/areasofwork/labourmigration/lang--en/ index.htm

Migration Data Relevant for the COVID-19 Pandemic // Migration Data Portal. March 2021. URL: https:// migrationdataportal. org/themes/migration-data-relevant-covid-19-pandemic

COVID-19 Travel Restrictions Output - 22 February 2021. Flow Monitoring. International Organization for Migration. 25 February 2021. URL: https://migration.iom.int/reports/covid-19-travel-restrictions-output- %E2%80%94-22-february-2021?close=true

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

foreigners entering Armenia 120165 Ö 1470864 1610449 1926725 717826

Persons who are citizens- of the RA who have left the RA 1 719 381 1 963 474 2 151 323 2 399 422 454 554

Foreigners who have received residency status in the RA1" 5949 6042 8330 7879 6583

Foreigners who have received

permanent residence status in the RA. of 1 329 1 301 1 809 1 809 2 059

which:

the basis for granting the status woi being an Armenian 1 252 1 255 1 500

Foreigners who have received temporary residence status in the RA, of which: 4 017 4 177 5 803 5 262 4 404

the basis for granting the status woi being an Armenian 43 55 59

before the start of the pandemic." In Germany, estimates for 2020 show that the country's population for the first time in ten years has not increased - primarily due to a sharp reduction in immigration.'"

In the US, the current situation is characterized by the inconsistency of the situation in the labor market: although in June, employment increased by 850 thousand people, the total employment indicators

still remain much worse than they were in February 2020, when unemployment was at the level of 5.7 million people, making up only 3.5 percent. The number of unemployed on July 1 amounted to 9.5 million people, or 5.9 percent of the active workforce.^ In 2020, 255 million full-time jobs were lost globally."

Now let's discuss the migration situation in Armenia in recent years.

2018

2019

2020

FIGURE 1

2016 2017

I Foreigners entering Armenia

I Persons who are citizens of the Republic of Armenia who httve left the Republic of Armenia Of border registrations of the republic of Armenia15

The table was compiled by us, the source: Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia 2021, https://www.armstat.am/file/doc/99526823.pdf

The number of foreigners with special status in Armenia is not calculated.

Population Statement. Australian Government Centre for Population.

URL: https://population.gov.au/ publications/publications-population-statement.html

No Population Growth Expected for 2020. German Federal Statistics Offi ce. 12 January 2021.

URL: https:// www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2021/01/PD21_016_12411.html

Economic New Release: Employment Summary. US Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2 July 2021.

URL: https://www. bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/—dgreports/—dcomm/ documents/briefingnote/wcms_767028.pdf)

13

13

M

o

9000 6000 7000 <5000 5000 WOO 3000 2000 !000

-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1

2015.5 2016 2016.5 201? 20:7.5 2018 2018.5 2019 2019.5 2020 2020.5 Foreigners who have received residency status in the RA Foreigners who have received temporary residence status in the RA ^^ Foreigners who have received permanent residence status in tili- RA

FIGURE 2

Foreigners who have received residency status in the Republic of Armenia16

FIGURE 3

2018

2019

2020

Foreigners (non-armenian) granted residency (permanent U temporary) status in | the Republic of Armenia^

As can be seen from Table 1, in 2020, as a result of the impact of the epidemic, the total number of both those who arrived in Armenia and those who left Armenia significantly decreased.

In recent years (2016-2020), the number of foreigners entering Armenia, who are citizens of the Republic of Armenia, who have left the RA, has increased proportionally, so that the first component has always exceeded the second. However, in 2021, due to the impact of the epidemic, both components decreased, the first by about 63% and the second by about 81% (Figure 1). At the same time, it should be noted that

the number of foreigners entering Armenia for the first time exceeded the number of RA citizens who left Armenia. Here we can conclude that in the conditions of the epidemic, Armenia pursued a more liberal migration policy than the countries where our compatriots mainly leave for.

Citizens from superpowers (USA, China, Russia) are mostly representatives of embassies, international or commercial organizations. In other words, labor migrants entering Armenia are mainly citizens of countries in the Asian-Arab region. Citizens of India and Iran have a significant share among foreigners who have received permanent or

16 The figure was compiled by us, the source: Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia 2021.

17 The figure was compiled by us, the source: Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia 2021.

[ Countries 2018 2019 2020

India 2048 1815 1139

Iran 1163 1091 1271

Russian Feredation 443 516 489

Ukraine 243 228 222

China 307 183 80

Jordan 83 148 182

Georgia 141 149 154

USA 231 202 127

Syria 125 152 98

Lebanon 53 129 141

Central Asian countries 132 147 130

(Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan)

temporary residence status in Armenia in recent years. At the same time, it should be noted that in 2020, due to COVID-19, along with a sharp decline in the number of immigrants, the number of citizens from Iran, Jordan, Lebanon and Georgia has increased (table 3), which is largely due to the desire to be vaccinated in Armenia.

In recent years, there has been a lot of talk about the high rates of emigration in Armenia and its negative consequences. Hereby, the positive and negative consequences of immigration for Armenia are presented.

They are positive.

► Inheritance of migrants in the field of work, related to the categories of low-income locals, the quality and livelihoods of the population, the development of the sphere of service, the development of the village.

► The lower the working force, the stronger the results, and finally the greater the competitiveness of the output of the productions.

► Increase in the quality of labor in the local population: For the sake of

attracting unskilled labor-migrants, the local population is free to suffer from intellectual labor.

► Additional knowledge of services and cargo is stimulated for the transfer of foreign service workers, new jobs are created, and infrastructure is developed rapidly.

They are negative.

► Dumping in the sphere of service and on the basis of labor resources, from which the earned salary of local workers is reduced.

► Mass influx of migrants can provoke an increase in unemployment on the outside.

► Migrants indicate an additional burden on the social infrastructure of the country: schools, children's containers, medical facilities.

► Due to their high self-esteem, migrants migrate to their home country, which means that they are deprived of funds from economic and foreign countries.

► Negative attitude of local residents to migrants as a whole.

The figure was compiled by us, the source: Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia 2021

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Ваге БУЛАНИКЯН

Старший исследователь исследовательского центра «Амберд», АГЭУ,

кандидат экономических наук, доцент

М

АРМЕНИЯ И МИР О

МЕНЯЮЩИЕСЯ ТЕНДЕНЦИИ МИРОВЫХ МИГРАЦИОННЫХ ПОТОКОВ

В статье рассматриваются вопросы изменения мировых миграционных потоков, связанных с С0УЮ-19. В частности, отмечается, что последствия эпидемии в миграционном секторе могут быть долгосрочными, поскольку резкое сокращение миграционных потоков во всем мире совпало с глубокими реорганизациями в сфере занятости, которые негативно повлияли на социально-экономическое положение стран. Кризис 2020-2021 годов может привести к коренному пересмотру миграции, особенно трудовой. Страны, вовлеченные в миграцию, можно разделить на три груп- ^ пы. В первую группу входят страны традиционной иммиграции: США, Канада, Австралия и др. £ Во вторую группу входят страны, которым пришлось поощрять трудовую миграцию (страны Пер- 5 сидского залива). Третья группа состоит из стран, которые могут одновременно играть две или три роли в глобальной миграционной цепочке (например, эмиграция, иммиграция и транзит).

В статье также говорится о миграционных процессах, происходящих в Армении в последние годы. В результате анализа были представлены положительные и отрицательные аспекты воз- О действия иммиграционных процессов на Армению.

Ключевые слова: пандемия, миграция, иммиграция, трудовые мигранты

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