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V. Surikov. Rossiiskiye nayomniki: vymysel i pracda. Izderzhki vozrozhdeniya islama v Respublike Tatarstan [Russian Mercenaries: Invention and Truth. Expenses of Revival of Islam in Republic of Tatarstan]. Nezavisimaya gazeta. 2000, June 27.
A. Magomeddadayev. "Blagotvoritelnost"? ["Charity?"]. Dagestanskaya pravda. 2004, July 19. URL.: http://www.portal-credo.ru/site/?act=monitorid=4513http:// www.portal-credo.ru/site/?act=monitorid=4513 Krovavy terror [Bloody Terror]. Moscow, 2000, p. 261.
K. Polyakov. Arabskiye strany i islam v Rossii (1990 gody) [Arab Countries and Islam in Russia (1990s)]. Moscow, 2001, pp. 52-61.
R. Suleimanov. Islamsky terrorism v postsovetskom Tatarstane: spetsifika, potentsial ugrozy, mery protivodeistviya // Kontseptsiya protivodeistviya terrorismu v Rossiiskoi Federatsii. Kompleksny podkhod k formirovaniyu i funktsionirovaniyu sistemy protivodeistviya rasprostraneniyu ideologii terrorisma [Islamic Terrorism in Post-Soviet Tatarstan: Specificity, Potential Threats, Counter-measures // Concept of Opposition to Terrorism in the Russian Federation. Comprehensive Approach to Formation and Functioning of System Opposing the Spreading of Ideology of Terrorism]. Materials of the 3rd All-Russia conference. Vol. 2.Moscow, 2012, p. 121.
One of the ideologists of "Muslim Brothers" has left Tatarstan. Interfax-Religion 2013, January 29. URL.: http://www.interfax-religion.ru/?act=news&div=49811 www.interfax-religion.ru/?act=news&div=49811
"Uralskoe Vostokovedenie," Ekaterenburg, 2013, issue 5, pp. 193-200.
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Zh. Syzdykova, Political analyst CENTRAL ASIA AFTER 2014: CHALLENGES AND THREATS
According to American plans, the forces of the United States and its allies should withdraw from the territory of the Islamic Republic of
Afghanistan in 2014. Evidently, they will leave the Afghan leadership with a host of unresolved problems which will definitely influence, to various degree, both the foreign and domestic policy of Central Asian countries, touching also on the interests of Russia, the People's 34
Republic of China, as well as two regional leaders - Turkey and Iran. The United States and its allies began a counter-terrorist operation in 2001, knowing very little about the country in which they would have to operate. Today one can hardly say that they have reached the aims they set themselves.
After the withdrawal of their forces from Afghanistan serious complications may arise in Central Asian countries, particularly in the ethnic-religious sphere, for example, between Uzbeks and Kyrgyzs in the Ferghana Valley, which flare up from time to time even now. A case in point was the events in Tajikistan in August 2010, when fighters from the Islamic movement of Uzbekistan (IDU) escaped from prison and took refuge in the Rasht Valley. In 2011 terrorist acts took place in Kazakhstan (Almaty, Atyrau, Taraz, and elsewhere). It was announced that behind the explosions in Atyrau in October 2011 stood the fighters from the organization "Soldiers of Caliphate" ("Jund al-Caliphate"), which, according to certain data, is based in Afghanistan. Among its members are people of various nationalities from Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, and other countries of Central Asia, whose main aim is the revival of Islamic caliphate. It should be noted that there are definite connections between Islamists and members of the opposition in these countries. Turkmenistan is the most stable state among the countries mentioned, because its authorities succeeded to take the domestic situation under strict control and prevent the emergence of seats of religious extremism. The many-year efforts of the world community, particularly the United States, to stop drug trafficking from Afghanistan along the "Northern route" (via Central Asian countries) have not brought the desired results, and after the withdrawal of the ISAF troops from Afghanistan the situation could deteriorate still more. According to the UN, up to thirty percent of Afghan opiates pass in transit through the countries having a common
border with Afghanistan in the North, that is, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. It should be borne in mind that Central Asian countries themselves also produce a sizable quantity of narcotic drugs. If the production and sales of drugs are transferred from the sphere of criminal business to the sphere of ideological confrontation, then radical changes of the forms and methods of the struggle against them should be introduced.
As is known, Central Asian countries boast great reserves of oil and natural gas. For example, the hydrocarbon potential of the Turkmen part of the Caspian Sea (over 78,000 square kilometers) is estimated at 11-12 billion tons of oil and 5.5-6.2 trillion cubic meters of gas. The Canadian Company "Tethys Energy" has discovered considerable reserves of oil in Tajikistan, which opens up broad vistas for the economic development of that country. The discovery of rich deposits of hydrocarbons evokes much enthusiasm not only among the official authorities of the Central Asian countries. Radical extremists regard the threats to the oil-and-gas infrastructure as an instrument of bringing pressure to bear on the governments of regional states. We cannot exclude the fact that in not so distant future terrorist acts can be committed on objects of the oil and gas branches with a view to destabilizing the domestic political situation in the countries of Central Asia.
Water resources are another problem. The point is that these resources are distributed in Central Asian countries very unevenly. The region is clearly divided into countries rich in water resources (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan), and countries dependent on them from the hydro-energy point of view (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan). Kyrgyzstan controls the basin of the Syrdarya River, and Tajikistan - the basin of the Amudarya River. The uneven distribution of water resources in Central Asia give rise to the conflict
of interests between the key suppliers of water (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) and its main consumers (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan).
The Taliban fighters may step up their activity after the withdrawal of the coalition forces from Afghanistan. The armed forces of Central Asian countries and their law-enforcement agencies are unable to oppose the Taliban units in case of their massive penetration in the region. In this connection the main responsibility for carrying out the various defensive operations will have to be taken by the Russian Federation. However, the Russian economy will hardly be able to cope with such enormous expenses alone. This is why the role of coordinated efforts and the use of resources within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), whose members are Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, is growing noticeably. Along with this, it is necessary to coordinate efforts with the countries of the region which are not CSTO members. Moscow does not have the necessary resources for the implementation of effective measures to prevent the spreading of extremism on the territory of Central Asia. Apart from that, the current problems in Russia itself and the absence of unity of Central Asian countries on problems of military-technical and military-political cooperation are also a negative factor. In this connection the U.S. military bases on the territory of certain Central Asian countries can be regarded as a barrier in the way of spreading religious extremism. In the immediate and in not-so-near future these bases will prevent the growing influence of the Taliban. The Russian Federation have the following tasks facing it: defense of Russian territory from the potentially destabilizing factors in Central Asia; protection of security of the region by restricting interference and participation of outside political forces; control over the share of the
hydrocarbon resources and other natural riches of Central Asia, as well as business-assets of the economic actors in the region.
"Lomonosovskiye chteniya. Vostokovedeniye, " Moscow, 2013, pp. 269-272.
D. Alexandrov, I. Ippolitov, D. Popov,
Political writers, Russian Institute of Strategic Studies
'SOFT POWER' AS AN INSTRUMENT
OF AMERICAN POLICY IN CENTRAL ASIA
(Conclusion)
Uzbekistan
U.S. interest in Uzbekistan has always been great in comparison with other Central Asian republics, as that country is a key one in the region, judging by its geographic location and resource potential, including demographic. The situation in Uzbekistan is reflected in the sphere of regional power and water supply, trade and, ultimately, in the political and social stability in the region.
However, relationship between Uzbekistan and the United States has passed through different stages during the post-Soviet period. Tashkent considered it a priority to establish relations with the West, especially the United States, until the middle of the first decade of the 21st century. President Karimov was concerned about the "color revolutions" in Georgia and Ukraine, carried out with the support of the United States, western criticism of the "democratization of his country", and the intensification of extremist groups against the backdrop of social tension. He tried to counterbalance the influence of the U.S.A. with the help of Russia. Uzbekistan has gradually deviated from the previously chosen western vector of cooperation in the sphere of defense and security since the beginning of 2004. The country's
