CC BY
0УДК 327
Rubina V.S.
St. Petersburg State University (St. Petersburg, Russia)
BRICS EXPANSION. THE NEW PROSPECTS & CHALLENGES
Аннотация: at the present stage, the BRICS, despite the informal and non-institutionalized nature of this association, acts as a bloc promoting the idea of a polycentric world. In 2023, it was decided to expand this association, and a whole range of developing countries expressed interest and commitment to joining the BRICS. The expansion not only increases the geographical and cultural diversity of the group, but also unites countries that play a key role in the global space.
Objective: to identify the prospects for cooperation in an expanded format and contradictions in the interaction between the BRICS participants.
Methods: comparative analysis, the method of expert assessments.
Results. Conclusions. The author concludes that the BRICS countries have many levers of influence on global politics. This shift can contribute to the development of multipolarity and increased cooperation between countries, leading to a more just and inclusive world order.
Ключевые слова: BRICS, developing countries, international influence.
After more than 40 countries expressed interest in joining BRICS, whether group would admit them was finally answered during the group's last summit. At the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg on 24 August 2023, the bloc's five members announced the invitation of six new countries — Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. From 1 January 2024, BRICS countries will represent almost half the world's population.
The fifteenth BRICS summit has gone further than any other in the recent past to modernise the grouping. It has sent a strong signal that the post-World War II order should accept the multipolar reality and change with the times.
The expanded group now straddles critical maritime energy choke points -the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. The expanded BRICS are important players in critical minerals value chains central to the energy transition. The expanded group could shift global economic dynamics with regard to oil trade and policy, given that oil is until now traded only in dollars. If BRICS members transition away from dependence on the US dollar, and indeed start trading in their local currencies fully, the enlarged consortium could carry significant clout within energy markets. The inclusion of four powerful members from the Middle East and North Africa suggests that the BRICS group drive toward expansion correlates with their determination to use the economic growth potential of the Global South and increase security influence on the world stage.
According to the data provided by World Bank (in current U.S. dollar prices) by the end of 2022, the current members of BRICS constituted of about 25.7% of the Global GDP. After the expansion, GDP exceeds the trillion dollar mark.
In 2023, over 3.3 billion people live in the BRICS countries, including the world's two most populous countries: India and China [2]. Additionally, the four BRICS countries are among the seven largest by area and make up the 12 largest economies in the world, alongside South Korea and the G7 states. South Africa is the outlier here, ranking outside the top 40 economies in the world, however its position as the most stable and advanced economy in Sub-Saharan Africa means it plays an important role in the continent.
The oil production in the BRICS countries will grow after its expansion. With the inclusion of major producers Saudi Arabia, UAE and Iran, BRICS will have a share of 41% in global oil production. Saudi Arabia is the biggest oil producer with 12,136 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia is followed by the UAE, producing 4,020 barrels per day [7]. Iran is among the top 10 oil producing countries. By the end of 2022, BRICS contributed to 18% of the global export of goods and services. With the addition of the six new economies, BRICS would represent about 21% [6]. The share of this group in the global population will also grow from 40% to 46%. India and China are two of the world's most populous nations. Ethiopia and Egypt have the
largest populations. With its six new members, the total geographical area of BRICS nations will increase by 8.7 million square kilometres [3].
Expanded BRICS: advantages and risks.
The shift in the center of gravity of the global economy to the East is an unstoppable process driven by demographics and economic factors like the cost of production. In tandem with these changes in the global economy, it is clear that the global political order will become more multipolar.
On the one hand, BRICS is recognised for bringing together emerging economies that are very different politically, economically, and socially. It includes two of the world's top five economies - China and India. It strives to be a voice for the developing world. The entry of Argentina, Egypt, and Ethiopia into BRICS, as agreed upon by its members, strengthens the Latin American and African positions within the BRICS group. BRICS+ would serve as a tool for the promotion of multilateralism, shedding light on the problem of underrepresentation of developing countries in global governance bodies. Also, the absence of a structure of limitations ensured the resilience of BRICS. The low institutionalisation of the group allows its members to reach consensus on common agendas. BRICS relies on the will of its members to maintain regular discussions without depending on any formal structure
[4].
On the other hand, the expansion does not resolve a set of uncertainties about the future of BRICS, it may amplify them. While the attractiveness of the BRICS in the developing world is undeniable, there are its internal disagreements.
Sometimes BRICS can be described as a grouping that lacks inner cohesion, for example it still remains hobbled by relations between India and China. Egypt and Ethiopia are criticizing the representation of Africa within the group, including concerns about the actual leadership of South Africa. The entry of Saudi Arabia and Iran poses a set of challenges for BRICS university. Saudi Arabia enjoys relative sympathy from the West, but Iran's diplomatic relations with the United States have been severed, and sanctions are regularly imposed on the country. But the same could
be said about G20, with Russia and China are at odds with the Western members of the group.
The expansion of BRICS confirms countries in the Global South are becoming more assertive and pragmatic in pursuit of their own interests. By embracing a new-found level of self-determination, developing countries have already tipped geopolitics toward a new paradigm.
Conclusion.
The enlargement of the BRICS group may reshape the global geopolitical landscape. Traditionally dominated by the G7 and Western powers, this expansion signifies a shift in the balance of power towards emerging economies. BRICS has a lot of levers of influence on global politics, challenge existing norms and advocate for their interests. This shift could foster multipolarity and greater cooperation among nations, leading to a more equitable and inclusive world order.
The expansion means a growing alignment of geopolitical and economic agendas within the BRICS. The BRICS+ countries have seized their geopolitical moment and called for a united stand of emerging and developing countries against a world order that does not correspond to their needs and necessities.
Current and future BRICS members have one thing in common: they reject the right of the USA and the European Union to impose restrictions on other countries 'foreign policy and economic activities. The expansion of BRICS could lead to the emergence of a new global financial system that is less reliant on the US dollar and Western banks. It could also lead to increased cooperation between BRICS countries on energy issues, which could have a major impact on global energy prices and markets. BRICS members have already begun to coordinate their positions on issues such as climate change and energy security. They have also called for the reform of the United Nations Security Council and other international institutions to give them greater representation. They have established their own development bank and other financial institutions.
BRICS should increase the political cooperation and speak in one voice on the important global challenges. The purpose should neither be to splinter the world order into political blocs nor wrest global leadership from the West.
As the Johannesburg Declaration notes, the BRICS seek to overcome polarity and division and play its role in creating a world without barriers between North, South, East and West. The BRICS are on the threshold of a new and complex era in global politics.
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