CC BY
19
УДК 65 (ЭК- 19)
ASSESSMENT OF COMPETITIVENESS OF RUSSIAN FUEL AND ENERGY COMPLEX
A. V. Romanova, A. O. Batrakov
ОЦЕНКА КОНКУРЕНТОСПОСОБНОСТИ РОССИЙСКОГО ТЭК
А. В. Романова, А. О. Батраков
Abstract. Background. A significant share of the revenues of the Federal budget of the Russian Federation are oil and gas revenues. Indeed, the fuel and energy complex (FEC) has traditionally been a major taxpayer. Therefore, assessment of competitiveness of fuel and energy complex of the Russian Federation is of great importance for the further development of the Russian economy. Materials and methods. To conduct the study we used statistical and analytical methods, forecasting methods. With the aim of increasing the objectivity of conclusions we analyzed the materials presented on the official websites of the Ministry of Finance, Central Bank of the Russian Federation, OECD, IMF, etc. Results. The article thoroughly explores the role and importance of the energy sector for the Russian economy, assessment of competitive advantages of the industry on the world market at the present stage and in the anticipated future. Conclusions. Russia has no special advantages in the market of energy products. The competitiveness of the Russian Federation in this market staggered for 2014-2015, and the oil and gas market stagnated during this period. Therefore, it seems true to increase competitiveness in the markets of goods with high added value.
Key words: competition, fuel and energy complex, market, budget.
Аннотация. Актуальность и цели. В формировании федерального бюджета РФ существенное значение имеют нефтегазовые доходы. Топливно-энергетический комплекс (ТЭК) представляет собой один из устойчивых, динамично развивающихся отраслей, является крупным налогоплательщиком. Но в условиях современных геополитических рисков оценка конкурентоспособности ТЭК РФ приобретает особую значимость для дальнейшего развития экономики страны. Материалы и методы. Для проведения исследования использовались статистические и аналитические методы, методы прогнозирования. С целью повышения объективности выводов анализировались материалы, представленные на официальных сайтах Министерства финансов, Центрального банка РФ, ОЭСР, МВФ и др. Результаты. В работе тщательно исследуются роль и значение ТЭК для экономики России, проводится оценка конкурентных преимуществ отрасли на мировом рынке как на современном этапе, так и в ожидаемом будущем. Выводы. На современном этапе сложно выявить особые преимущества России на рынке топливно-энергетических товаров. За период 2014-2015 гг. рынок нефтепродуктов сузился, позиция России на данном рынке неуверенная. Поэтому видится верным увеличение конкурентоспособности на рынках товаров с высокой добавленной стоимостью.
Ключевые слова: конкуренция, топливно-энергетический комплекс, рынок, бюджет.
Introduction
Oil and gas revenues amounts a significant fraction of the federal budget income of the Russian Federation. Indeed, the fuel and energy complex (FEC)
has traditionally been the largest taxpayer. Thus, according to the Federal Law N 384-FZ "Concerning the Federal Budget for 2015 and the planning period for 2016 and 2017" [1], the share of these revenues will amount to 43.37 % of the federal budget. It is a substantial contribution of the industry into GDP budgeting. According to the report of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation on the results of the work of the FEC for 2013, the contribution of the FEC to Russia's GDP accounted 30 %. Consequently, the assessment of the competitiveness of the Russian fuel and energy complex is of great importance for the further development of the Russian economy.
1. Features of competition in the FEC market
The category of fuel and energy raw materials include fossil minerals used to produce energy: oil, hard and brown coal, combustion gas, uranium, bituminous shales. It is customary for raw commodity trading that partners seek to establish long-standing relationships based on long-term international contracts in which the exporter is provided with stable sales and the importer gets a guaranteed supply of raw and other materials for production.
The features of the raw commodity trading are: long-term obligations (a year or more), large volume of supplies, a significant proportion in the price for transportation costs, handling, storage. Under these circumstances, the parties do not apply fixed prices during the term of the contract, but carry on trade at the current world prices, introducing price variation limits for agreed periods (monthly, quarterly or once in six months). In addition, the parties stabilize the dynamics of supplies, ensuring its regularity and uniformity [2]. The practice of long-term contracts does not preclude, if required, the conclusion of separate short-term contracts for the supply of the raw materials.
2. Competitive advantages of countries in the FEC market
The price factor can certainly act as a competitive advantage. It should be noted that the demand and supply for mineral and agricultural raw materials to a far greater degree than for the finished product depend on climate conditions, natural resources, political and economical crises, especially in the most important raw material regions of the country.
Fig. 1 shows how oil production cost varies according to geographical location of the oil fields [2, 3].
At first sight, Russia doesn't have such a bad position in terms of the oil production cost. But it is not quite the case. The fact is that the production cost of the oil produced in Russia, increases sharply because of its high costs for transportation. At the same time the production cost of the oil produced in the Middle East, is lower and transportation by water is much more cost-effective than the one in Russia by land. The dynamics of oil production shows a slowdown in growth in recent years (fig. 2). From this we can draw a simple conclusion: the Russian Federation does not have any advantages in the oil market and will lose in the case of a price war.
In Europe, as well as in many coal basins in Russian upper layers of the fields have already been produced, and to extract coal from a depth over 1000 meters is not profitable having the current methods and technology. The only open pit
mining of the coal fields is profitable (in the Western Basin of the US, East Siberia, South Africa, Australia). Thus, the mining of 1 ton of hard coal in Germany costs three times more expensive than import from South Africa, including shipping costs.
Fig. 1. The curve of the oil production cost, USD / bbl
Fig. 2. Oil production for 2000-2014 years., compiled on the basis of the official data from the OECD [URL: https://data.oecd.org/energy/crude-oil-production.htm]
Unfortunately, the statistical data appear late. So, annually edited International Trade Statistics yearbook, published on the official website of the WTO, operates with the data for 2013 and include only some rates for 2014. Nevertheless, the data collected by the WTO, let know the features of the market of fuel and energy commodities, namely, the export of fuel and commodity of mining industry increased by only 0.3 percent in 2013, reflecting a strong demand against a background of price drop [4].
They also give a comparative graph showing the volume of world merchandise exports by product groups for the period from 2000 to 2013. The changes are shown for three types of products: agricultural products, fuel and energy and mining products, industrial products.
As can be seen from fig. 3, fuel and energy and mining products in relation to two other products had smaller amplitude fluctuations, but the growth of these sectors had a downward tendency
The rates of growth of the fuel and energy industry until 2004 were close to the rates of growth of agricultural production. Only in 2012 the market of fuel and energy industry has exceeded the market of agricultural products by 1 %.
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Fig. 3. The volume of world merchandise exports by product group for the period from 2000 to 2013
In the last year the stagnation was observed in the investigated market, while the markets of agricultural and industrial production were growing [5]. As can be seen from the development trend, the market of fuel and energy products is saturated and the composition of the players there is permanent. From this it can be concluded that if the Russian government wants to keep Russia in the top ten economies in the world and create the conditions for accelerated economic growth in the country, the authorities should not stake on the fuel and energy and mining products.
Г
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In 2014, the growth for every kind of raw material slowed, except for atomic power engineering, which growth exceeded the average value. Overall, the growth was significantly lower than the 10-year average for the Asia-Pacific region, in Europe and Eurasia, South and Central America. Oil has remained the world's leading fuel with 32.6 % of global energy consumption, but in this case the share of the market decreases for the fifteenth year in a row. Although developing economies continue to dominate in the growth of global energy consumption, the growth in these countries (+2.4 %) was significantly lower than their 10-year value (4.2 %). China (+2.6 %) and India (+7.1 %) are gradually becoming global consumers of energy. Consumption in OECD countries decreased on 0.9 %. For the second year in a row the growth in energy consumption in Asian countries (+1.2 %) is compensated for a decrease in energy consumption in the EU (-3.9 %) and Japan (-3.0 %) [6].
3. The prospects of Russia in the fuel and energy complex market
The threshold of profitability for each individual enterprise in Russia is different. However, the portfolio manager of "Ankorinvest" Sergei Vakhrameev notes that industrywide price of $ 30 per barrel is a break-even point for Russian oil companies [7]. This suggests that the steep drop in oil prices in 2014 has not brought beyond the profitability of the Russian fuel and energy complex.
At the same time we should take into account the geopolitical risks. The fall in oil prices in the second half of 2014 is a feedback to the current supply and demand imbalance. For major crude oil exporting countries, the price cuts help to save their market share. The original budget for 2015 was drawn up on the basis of the target price of $ 104 per barrel (although after the July 2014 price for an oil barrel steadily was going down to nearly $ 70 in December). The price of $ 50 per barrel was incorporated into the federal budget for 2016 as the principle of formation of the income basis, but in December 2015, Minister of Finance Siluanov A. G. announced the possible oil price in 2016 at $ 30 per barrel [8].
This pace of developments is due:
- to the fall in demand in the oil market;
- to new players on the market (Iran);
- to a lack of concerted actions among OPEC countries, which leads to dumping.
It should be concluded that the budget of the Russian Federation is becoming more modest taking into account the general economic downturn, and in the case of the fallacy of oil forecast world economic situation - essentially deficient [9].
According to forecasts [10], by 2035, global energy consumption will increase by 37 % in comparison with current level. Approximately all the growth (96 %) is due to the increasing consumption of non-member countries of the OECD, with more than half of demand from India and China. The energy intensity of the world economy in 2035 will be reduced by half by 1995 and 36 % lower by 2013. Nevertheless, global energy consumption per capita will increase by 12 %. According to the OECD the United States can become energy self-sufficient by 2021, and by 2035 will export 9 % of the total energy supply. Meanwhile, China will outrun the EU as the world's largest importer by 2025. Europe preserves its leadership as the largest importer of natural gas.
The USA, Russia and Saudi Arabia will supply more than one third of the global liquid hydrocarbon production by 2035. OPEC's share in this market in 2035
will reach 40 %, the same as in 2013. Despite the fact that Russia is projected to remain the largest net exporter of energy, providing 4 % of global energy demand by 2035 (but possibly at a significantly compressed world economy), dependence on oil and gas revenues makes the economy vulnerable.
Conclusion
From the foregoing it should also be concluded that Russia has no special advantages in the market of energy products. The competitiveness of the Russian Federation in this market has staggered in a way in 2014-2015, besides that, the oil and gas market stagnated during this period too. (IMF revised the forecast for the decline of the world economy four times). Taking into account the significant impact of geopolitical risks, economic forecasts, it is advisable to increase the competitiveness on the markets with higher value added products, rather than cherish hopes for a stabilization and increase in commodity revenues.
Список литературы
1. Федеральный закон от 01.12.2014 № 384-ФЗ «О федеральном бюджете на 2015 год и на плановый период 2016 и 2017 годов» // Официальный интернет-портал правовой информации. - URL: http://www.pravo.gov.ru (дата обращения: 03.12.2014).
2. Олеинов, А. Г. Топливно-энергетический комплекс мира : учеб. и справ. пособие / А. Г. Олеинов. - М. : ИНФРА-М, 2008. - 472 с.
3. Нефть: умеренный оптимизм в среднесрочной перспективе / Центр Макроэкономических Исследований. - URL: http://fincake.ru/stock/reviews/ 136516/download/135360
4. Официальный сайт ВТО. - URL: http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/ its2014 e/its14 highlights2 e.pdf
5. Пустынникова, Е. В. Управление корпоративными структурами в экономических кластерах / Е. В. Пустынникова // Проблемы теории и практики управления. -2013. - Вып. 4, - С. 89-96.
6. 2014 in review. - URL: http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/2014-in-review.html
7. Свежие новости. - URL: http://glupih.net/News/ShowItem/cena-v-30-tochka-bezubytochnosti-dlya-neftyanoj-otrasli-rossii/
8. Филипенок, А. Силуанов предсказал падение цен на нефть ниже $30 за баррель / Артем Филипенок. - URL: http://www.rbc.ru/economics/12/12/2015/ 566be9799a79471aa0e97e6a, свободный
9. Официальный сайт ОЭСР. - URL: https://data.oecd.org/energy/crude-oil-production.htm
10. Перспективы развития энергетики: глобальное понимание. - URL: http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook-2035/ country-and-regional-insights/global-insights.html
Романова Анна Валерьевна
кандидат экономических наук, доцент, кафедра финансов и кредита, Ульяновский государственный университет
E-mail: [email protected]
Romanova Anna Valerievna candidate of economic sciences, associate professor, sub-department of finance and credit, Ulianovsk State University
Батраков Александр Олегович
студент,
Ульяновский государственный
Batrakov Aleksander Olegovich student,
Ulianovsk State University
университет E-mail: [email protected]
УДК 65 (ЭК-19) Romanova, A. V.
Assessment of competitiveness of russian fuel and energy complex / A. V. Romanova, A. O. Batrakov // Модели, системы, сети в экономике, технике, природе и обществе. - 2016. - № 1 (17). - C. 17-23.
