CC BY
36Mikhail Borisov*
ASIAN COUNTRIES: SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Abstract: In recent years the world energy has faced serious challenges of structural, price and environmental order that can affect the sustainable development of many states. The energy complex of Asian countries is characterized by a number of specific features that fall out of the context of the development of world energy. In the densely populated and rapidly industrializing countries of the region which are characterized by a relatively small automobile fleet and mostly archaic residential sector, renewable energy (which is in the center of development) is not able to ensure sustainable development. A solution to problems can be seen through comprehensive modernization of energy supply for all sectors of the economy.
Keywords: sustainable development, sustainable energy, carbon emissions, energy efficiency, renewable energy sources.
The period 2014-2024 is proclaimed by the UN a Decade of sustainable energy for all. The objective is "to promote access to reliable, affordable, economically viable, socially acceptable and environmentally sound energy services and resources for sustainable development taking into account the differences in conditions, national policies and specific needs of developing countries and countries with economies in transition"1. All member countries of the United Nations have assumed corresponding obligations.
The development of sustainable energy in Asian countries is characterized by a number of features that fall out of the world energy development channel. This gives specificity to regional approaches to determining the basic directions of energy development.
Almost half a billion people in Asia are still deprived of access to electricity using firewood for heating, lighting and cooking (Table 1). The share of firewood in the fuel and energy balances of many densely populated countries reaches 30%. So the extent of deforestation in some regions of Asia has become disastrous. The direct and indirect emission of carbon dioxide (from direct burning of wood and from the "not absorbed" carbon dioxide by forests) exceeds the emissions of even the most "dirty" power plants capable of delivering an adequate amount of energy. A case in point is the fact that the share of carbon containing fuel in carbon dioxi emissions (according to modern estimates, this gas is responsible for about 60% of the growth of the greenhouse effect) is only 4%. The rest has a natural origin and its constant increase is largely a result of the anthropogenic impact on the biosphere2. To a greater extent, the concentration of carbon
* Mikhail Glebovich Borisov - Candidate of Economic Sciences, Senior Researcher of the Institute of Oriental Studies of RAS.
1 https://news.un.org/en/story/2014/06/12
2 I.L. Karol, A.A. Kiselev. Paradoxes of climate. M.: AST-PRESS BOOK, 2013, p. 87
dioxide annually increasing by 0.3% in the last 30 years, is due to the degradation of forest areas, chaotic felling of trees, burning out forests, draining swamps and using biomass as fuel3.
Of the 4% carbon dioxide emissions that are provided by human economic activity, only 25.9% is in Asia for energy (slightly below the world average), the rest is for agriculture (13.5%), forestry (17.1%), transport (11.8%), utilities (7.9%) and wastewater (2.8%)4. Thus the implementation of international agreements on the emission of carbon dioxide does not only concern, as is commonly believed, and not so much the energy sector, but also all aspects of social and economic development.
The growing concentration in the atmosphere of the second most important greenhouse gas - methane - is also largely caused by the specific nature of economic activity in tropical and equatorial regions. Only 16% of this gas is released into the atmosphere by fossil fuels, and the rest is produced by draining of marshes (31%), fires (14%), rice plantations (13%), garbage dumps (12%), livestock and sewage5.
The anthropogenic emissions of the third "carbon contributor" to the greenhouse effect - carbon monoxide - (the effect is estimated at 10%) is 1.5 times higher than its natural emission. About 80% of its emissions falls on road trans-port6]. The trend of electrification of vehicles requires a large amount of electricity, hence - the construction of powerful power plants that supply electricity to charging stations. According to environmentalists, the construction of even a "dirty" coal-fired power plant which is taking out of service a quantity of petrol and diesel engines corresponding to its production, reduces carbon emissions dozens of times7.
Table 1
Pattern of energy consumption by households in Asia (%)
A country Electricity Firewood Straw, manure Coal LPG, Kerosene
Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural
Azerbaijan 15 18 1 1 - - - - 84 81
Armenia 17 16 1 10 1 2 - - 81 80
Afghanistan 15 - 23 69 8 29 3 - 51 2
Bangladesh - - 51 49 15 51 - - 44 -
Butane 4 1 42 61 11 19 - - 43 19
India 14 8 20 74 2 4 2 - 62 14
Indonesia 1 1 34 85 1 1 - - 64 13
3 Ibid
4 WMO Global Climate Change Monitoring Project. Report # 81.Geneva, 2015, p. 31
5 I.L.Karol, A.A. Kiselev. Paradoxes of climate. M.: AST-PRESS BOOK, 2013, p. 94
6 Ibid, p. 88
7 WMO Global Climate Change Monitoring Project. Report # 81.Geneva, 2015, p.38
A country Electricity Firewood Straw, manure Coal LPG, Kerosene
Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural
Kazakhstan 18 9 1 5 1 19 12 9 68 58
Kyrgyzstan 16 6 4 9 2 9 - - 78 76
PRC 18 1 4 61 1 7 30 21 49 9
Cambodia 3 1 18 69 1 29 - - 78 1
Laos 15 3 29 75 2 11 - 54 11
Mongolia 41 2 28 42 5 43 26 13 - -
Myanmar 12 - 29 87 - 1 58 12 1 -
Thailand 34 8 15 71 - 10 4 6 45 6
Pakistan 1 1 16 63 22 14 3 58 22
Philippines 1 1 10 61 - - 21 8 68 30
Nepal 1 - 27 90 5 7 - - 67 3
East.Timor 1 1 34 81 1 8 - - 64 10
Sri Lanka 1 1 39 87 - - - - 60 12
Source: Asia-Pacific Progress in Sustainable Energy. NY, UN, ESCAP, 2017
The data of Table1 indicate the extreme inconsistency of the structure of energy consumption by households and levels of their electrification, which in Asian countries have already reached 80-90% (Table 2). The reason is the poverty of the bulk of both rural and urban population. 95% of the population in Asia is not able to pay more than $1.5 per day for consumed electricity8. This corresponds to about 80 kWh. of electric energy bought for one month. This amout is usually formed as follows: 10-20 kWh. is necessary to operate a small refrigerator, 10-20 kW. h. - for lighting, 3-5 kWh. - for the work of a low-power fan, 3-5 kWh. - for TV, and 40 kWh. - for a small irrigation pump9. A kitchen electric cooker consumes 2-3 times more electricity than all the listed electrical appliances taken together. Its operation costs an average of $350 per year10]. Therefore this most important attribute of modern energy consumption remains beyond the capacity of most households in Asian countries. For the same reason, in the rural areas of most Asian countries heating (where it is needed)is practically excluded with modern energy sources. As a result, in 2014 2.1 billion people in Asia (853 million in India, 586 million in China, 143 million in Bangladesh, 110 million in Indonesia, 102 million in Pakistan) were denied access to modern methods of cooking and heating11.
8 Asia-Pacific Progress in Sustainable Energy. NY, UN, ESCAP, 2017. p. 23
9 Ibid, pp. 23-24
10 Ibid, p. 23
11 World Energy Outlook. P., IEA, 2011, pp. 48-49
Table 2
Electrification of Asian countries
Country Electrification (%) 2014 Government Target
Urban Rural
Bangladesh 90.7 52.4 96% by 2020
Cambodia 96.8 49.2 70% by 2030
Vietnam 99.10% 62.30% 100%by 2025
Thailand 98.4 65.8 100% by 2023
Laos 94.7 68.1 90% by 2020
Myanmar 85.7 49.8 80% by 2030
Indonesia 98.7 62.9 100%by 2025
Philippines 97.3 82.5 100% by 2022
India 98.3 70 100% by 2019
PRC 99.7 75.9 100% by 2022
Pakistan 98.9 73.8 100% by 2023
Nepal 87.9 48.1 90%by 2025
Butane 76.7 47,8 90% by 2030
East Timor 63 54,9 100% by 203
Source: Asia-Pacific Progress in Sustainable Energy. NY, UN, ESCAP, 2017
A way out of this situation is seen in increasing the energy efficiency of the economy. It is possible, by reducing the capital and production costs in the energy sector, to cut the cost of the energy being released and to match the supply of energy with the effective demand of the population. In addition, the scale of the commissioning of new energy capacities (and associated greenhouse gas emissions) is decreasing, energy imports are being reduced to importing countries and additional resources are being released for export in exporting countries. The energy intensity of goods and services is decreasing and, consequently, their cost is gradually declining and the huge government energy subsidies to the population are falling. The introduction of energy-efficient technologies in industry, housing, energy and transport dramatically reduces greenhouse gas emissions and eliminates payments for exceeding their emission quotas. In view of the extreme importance of improving energy efficiency this issue has been brought to the attention of national governments in all Asian countries which developed relevant prospective programs (Table 3).
Table 3
Asian government's plans to increase energy efficiency of economies.
Country Goals of the government Government document
Bangladesh Reduce the energy intensity of the economy by 20% b y 2030 in relation to 2013 National Energy Plan for the period up to 2030.
PRC Reduce the energy intensity of the economy by 15% by 2020 in relation to 2015. 13th Five-Year Energy Development Plan
hong Kong (PRC) Reduce the energy intensity of the economy by 40% by 2025 in relation to 2005 Energy saving plan for 2015-2025.
India Reduce the energy intensity of the economy by 35% by 2030 in relation to 2005. Plan for improving the energy efficiency of the Ministry of Renewable Energy
Pakistan The annual reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP is 1.5-1.8%.until 2025 The concept of sustainable development for the period up to 2035.
Kazakhstan Reduce the energy intensity of the economy by 40% by 2030 in relation to 2008. The concept of green economy development for the period up to 2050.
Vietnam Annual reduction of energy consumption per unit of GDP by 1-1.5% by 2020. The strategy of "green growth" for the period 2011-2020.(Decision #1393/ Q-TTg)
Thailand Reduce the energy intensity of GDP by 35% by 2030 in relation to 2014. National Green Energy Development Plan for the period up to 2030.
Philippines Reducing the energy intensity of the economy by 35% by 2030 in relation to 2009. The concept of energy development for the period 2010-2030.
Source: Asia- Pacific Progress in Sustainable Energy. NY, UN, ESCAP, 2017
Asia is the least developed region of the world in energy efficiency of the economy. In 2014 the energy intensity of GDP there was 6.0 megajoules per unit of GDP at PPP, while in North America - 5.6, Europe - 3.9, Africa - 5.7, Latin America - 3.912. The level of energy efficiency of the PRC economy (China's share in regional GDP is 55%) is only 35.5% of the world's average13. According to forecast of the IEA, the implementation of all possible measures to reduce the energy intensity of regional GDP will bring down the total energy consumption in Asian countries by 35% in 2015-203514. In Asian countries there is an extensive field for measures to improve energy efficiency.These measures are numerous and diverse: the introduction of advanced technologies at the existing energy facilities in industry, construction, housing, agriculture and transport, reducing the losses in transportation of energy and the creation of local mini-grids based on renewable energy sources.
12 Asia-Pacific Progress in Sustainable Energy. NY, UN, ESCAP, 2017, p. 49
13 Ibid, p. 48
14 World Energy Outlook. P., IEA, 2016, p. 257
In recent years Asian countries have made significant progress in improving energy efficiency. The energy intensity of GDP has decreased from 9.1 megajoules per unit of GDP at PPP in 1990 to 6.0 megajoules in 201415. From 2012 to 2014 the region saved more than 200 million tons of coal, which corresponds to the annual consumption of primary energy of South Korea and Thailand combined16. At the same time an energy efficiency growth was observed in all branches and sectors of the economy except housing; specific energy consumption decreased between 2010 and 2012 in industry - by 3.2%, agriculture - by 0.8%, in services -by 2.5%, while in housing it grew by 10%17. The rise in the standard of living of the population was accompanied by the continued subsidized use of traditional energy sources (coal, kerosene and partly firewood), which largely preserved the environmentally and economically unacceptable structure of household energy consumption in present conditions.
The structure of the energy consumption of the population, especially rural, in most Asian countries can be greatly modified by the small -scale decentralized renewable energy (solar panels, wind power generators and small hydropower plants). As the units of small alternative energy are compact and ready for operation, there is no need for large-scale construction, delivery of overall equipment and construction materials or special construction of roads. There is also no need to connect small energy projects with power power transmission lines, which reduce capital costs and losses in greeds (that account for up to 30% of generated electricity as in Laos and Cambodia). Small power units are very expensive but electricity is produced almost "for nothing". Apparently, at the initial stage state subsidies for the energy consumption of the population should be reoriented to acquire renewable energy generating units (which is already happening today). An introduction of feed-in tariff everywhere is also important.
However, Asian states, which, in most cases, are going through industrialization, construction and transport boom, characterized by rapid population growth, will not be able to meet their fast-growing energy needs from renewable sources alone. In addition, renewable power plants occupy a large area (1 sq. Km of solar "farm", on average, produces electricity per year corresponding to burning only 1 million barrels of oil), a relatively small capacity (an average solar power plant has a capacity about 20 times less then an average TPP) and can not meet the energy needs of large energy-intensive industries and densely populated areas.Therefore, renewable energy in most of Asia will develop in a single complex with all possible branches of traditional energy (with outstripping growth), or autonomously, outside the energy systems, to supply energy to remote rural areas, of which there are many in the region.
Only small, rich, post-industrial countries can afford to transfer the production of electricity on a large scale to low-power and expensive RE power plants.
15 Energy Efficiency Market Report. P., IEA, 2017, p. 39
16 Ibid
17 Energy Efficiency Market Report. P., IEA, 2017, p. 40
To maintain accelerated growth rates industrial Asia is forced to introduce large amounts of conventional fire electricity generation. Technological revolutions in transport, industry and construction will further enhance the role of large-scale power generation (millions of electric vehicles, for example, instead of fuel, will consume electricity from power plants that burn organic sources of primary energy).
The boom in the development of renewable energy does not mean a rejection of traditional energy sources. Every GW. of renewable energy capacity needs 300-500 MW. of reserve power of thermal or atomic generation18. Accordingly, an increase in the capacity of renewable energy does not mean a proportional reduction in the generation of electricity at TPPs. Asia is the only region in the world that does not abandon coal energy. Calculations show that only this most dirty way of obtaining energy on the basis of own regional resources is able to ensure the sustainable development of Asian countries. The existing reserves of increasing the productivity of existing capacities through the introduction of modern technologies are quite comparable with the prospective capacities required for economic growth. The efficiency of existing coal-fired power plants in Asia is substantially lower than what could be provided today (in India and China -28%, in the world - on average 35%)19. China could consume 20% less coal if the efficiency of Chinese power plants were roughly equal to the efficiency of a conventional power plant in Japan20. An efficiency growth can be achieved through the introduction of modern technologies. For example, power plants operating at supercritical steam parameters can save 0.5 million tons of coal per 1 GW. of installed capacity and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 16-22%; increasing the efficiency of double intermediate superheating of steam can give an additional 3% rise in efficiency21. An additional incentive is the fact that mandatory capture and storage of carbon (CCS) is unprofitable at low efficincy power plants. So investments in high-tech capacities with high efficiency are the main step in the implementation of the CCS strategy. Since coal stations have a long service life, the rapid spread of CCS is possible only through conversion, since new capacities will still be required to compensate for the power taken for capture. In Japan and the PRC most of the coal stations were built in the 1980s and 1990s and have to be modernized in 2018-2025 (considering the service life of coal thermal power plants as 40-60 years). India has already approached this limit, which creates the optimal prerequisites for the beginning of modernization.
More and more low-power gas generators based on biomass are used in rural areas of South and South-East Asia. The profitability of bioenergy plants is increased in the long term by the overall reduction in CO2 emissions through a disposal of waste. Bioenergetic systems contribute to an overall reduction in CO2
18 Levelling the Intermittency of Renewables With Coal. 07/01/2016 http://bookshop.iea-coal.org.uk/ report/80573//83885
19 Effective technologies for fuel energy. https://issek.hse.ru/trendletter/news/141133080.html
20 Ibid
21 Ibid
emissions because living growing biomass absorbs CO2; a full bioenergetic cycle (growing biomass - converting it into electrical energy - a new cultivation) can provide very low C02 emissions and get rid of the construction of expensive CCS.
Table 4
Plans of Asian governments to improve efficiency of production, transmission and distribution of electrical energy
Country The target of government Political document
Bangladesh Reduce system losses from 13% to 9% 7th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) (Accelerated Growth, Electricity Supply for Citizens)
PRC Reduce average coal consumption in 310 g per kWh at existing TPPs and in 300 g at new ones 13th Five-Year Plan.
DPRK Reduce greed losses by 9% Party directive documents
India Reduce energy losses by 15% 13th Five-Year Plan
Mongolia Reduce the share of combined heat and power in domestic consumption from 14% in 2014 to 11.2% by 2020 and to 9.14% by 2030. The plan for the development of the electric power industry for the period up to 2030.
Sri Lanka Reduce technical and commercial losses in greeds from 11% in 2014 to 8% by 2020. Sri Lanka's Energy Sector Development Plan for the Digital Economy 2015-2025
Myanmar Reduce system losses from 20% in 2009 to 10% in 2020. National Energy Plan 2010-2020
Philippines Increase the average efficiency of thermal power plants from 28% to 43% by 2030 g The concept of energy development in 2010-2030.
Thailand Complete by 2030 a complete re-equipment of the TPP and reduce CO2 emissions by 20%. National plan for the development of green energy for the period until 2030.
Turkey Reduce losses and illegal consumption of energy by 10%by the end of the period Strategic Plan for 2015-2019.
Source: Asia-Pacific Progress in Sustainable Energy. NY, UN, ESCAP, 2017
A huge reserve to improve energy efficiency of the economy is reducing losses in the transmission and distribution of energy. In 2014 they amounted to 35% in Nepal, 33% in Cambodia, 31% in Myanmar, 21% in India and 20% in Pakistan22. The most attractive area for investment here is the so-called "smart grid". This is a system that automatically optimizes energy consumption when the load changes. Its implementation reduces losses from grids by 30-40%23. Most
22 Asia-Pacific Progress in Sustainable Energy. NY, UN, ESCAP, 2017, p.121
23 World Energy Outlook. P., IEA, 2011, pp. 202-203
countries of the East are the widest field of activity in this area. In South Asia, for example, replacing existing grids with smart grids is equivalent to an increase in electricity production by 20%24.
It is important to increase energy efficiency of the industrial sector in order to ensure sustainability in economic growth. In addition to lower costs of commodity products smaller greenhouse gases emissions the rise in energy efficiency of industry brings down the price of supplied energy through a reduced demand. The link between price of supplied energy and the structure of energy is reciprocal. According to the IEA, in 2016 energy efficiency of industry in the group of countries with a low price of energy was 56% higher than in the group of states with a relatively high price. The high price of energy prompted industrial companies to reduce energy intensity of production. A low energy price attracts investors. That is why the contribution of energy-saving industry sectors to the produced value added was 44% higher in countries with a lower energy costs than in countries with a high price25.
The world is experiencing a genuine revolution in industrial energy efficiency. In 2000-2016 the added value produced per the conventional unit of energy consumed in the world increased by 40%26, which enabled some developed countries not to increase energy production for economic growth. Industrial Asia, joining this process with some delay, starting in 2014, demonstrates the highest rate of increase in energy efficiency of industry among the regions of the world. The rate of its modernization is negligible yet but the plans are extremely large (Table 5).
Table 5
Plans of the governments of some Asian countries to improve energy efficiency of industry, housing and communal services
Country The purpose of government Political document
Vietnam Decrease of energy intensity of industry by 15% and consumption in housing and communal services by 20% by 2025 Governmental forecast of energy development up to 2025.
Kazakhstan Decrease by 15% of the specific energy consumption in industry by 2019 compared to 2012. State program of innovative development for the period 2013-2019.
DPRK Decrease by 25% of the specific energy consumption in industry by 2030. State program for increasing energy efficiency
Rep. Korea Zero energy losses in newly constructed buildings by 2025 Plan-forecast of energy development up to 2035.
Malaysia Zero energy losses in newly constructed buildings by 2026. National Energy Development Plan 2016-2026.
Mongolia Reduce heat losses in buildings by 40% by 2030 in relation to 2013. Directive government documents
24 Ibid, p. 206
25 Energy Efficiency Market Report. P., IEA, 2017, pp.69-70
26 Ibid, p.67
Country The purpose of government Political document
Thailand Reducing the energy intensity of industry by 20% by 2030 The energy strategy for the period 2014-2030.
Turkey To increase by 20% the energy efficiency of buildings in the period 2013-2019. Strategic Plan 2015-2019
Japan Zero energy losses by 2020 in newly constructed buildings The fourth strategic energy plan
Source: Asia-Pacific Progress in Sustainable Energy. NY, UN, ESCAP, 2017
Increasing energy efficiency of industry, transport, construction, housing and communal services on the basis of modern technologies and productive forces, in addition to reducing the specific energy consumption, involves the replacement of various types of fuel with electricity, which is the most efficient and pure form of energy. According to the IEA, the complete electrification of only the world's road transport will reduce the annual oil demand by 35% and cut anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide by about 30%[27. This will entail not only an increase in the share of electricity in energy balances (in the world, on average, from 31% in 2015 to 58% in 2040), but also a significant absolute rise in electricity gener-ation28. In densely populated Asian countries with a rapidly developing industry, so far relatively small automobile fleet and archaic (in mass) housing stock, renewable electric power alone (the accelerated development of which is given high priority) is not able to cope with the challenges to sustainable development. A solution to the problem is seen through comprehensive modernization of energy supply for all branches and sectors of the economy.
References
1. I.L. Karol, A.A. Kiselev. Paradoxes of climate. M.: AST-PRESS BOOK, 2013
2. Asia-Pacific Progress in Sustainable Energy. NY, UN, ESCAP, 2017
3. Energy Efficiency Market Report. P., IEA, 2017
4. World Bank Indicators Database. W.,2012
5. World Energy Outlook. P., IEA, 2011
6. World Energy Outlook. P., IEA, 2016
7. WMO Global Climate Change Monitoring Project. Report # 81. Geneva 2015
8. Levelling the Intermittency of Renewables With Coal. 07/01/2016 http://book-shop.iea-coal.org.uk/report/80573//83885
9. Effective technologies for fuel energy. https://issek.hse.ru/trendletter/ news/141133080.html
10. UN. Decade of Sustainable Energy for All. https://news.un.org/en/ story/2014/06/1243941
27 World Energy Outlook. P., IEA, 2011, p. 407
28 Ibid
