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5ARMENIA INCREASES TENSION IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
LAMAN RASAT GIZI GOJAYEVA
Azerbaijan University of Tourism and Management PhD student Baku, Azerbaijan
Summary. Despite the fact that nearly four years have passed since the defeat in the Second Karabakh War, the Armenian government still does not want to abandon its insidious and subversive policy towards Azerbaijan. The Armenian state still evades fulfilling its obligations after the defeat in the 44-day Patriotic War. First of all, Armenia must come to terms with the inviolability of the borders of Azerbaijan, their delimitation and demarcation, as well as the fact that Karabakh is an integral part of Azerbaijan. It must quickly implement the terms of the peace agreement, fulfilling its obligations, and agree to the opening and commissioning of the Zangezur corridor. However, the leadership of Armenia, with its ill-conceived policy, is still trying to get away from the goal. The presented article criticizes the revanchist policy of Armenia, its manipulative actions and shows that the non-constructive policy of Armenia increases political tension in the South Caucasus region.
Key words: South Caucasus, political tension, non-constructive policy, balanced policy, Zangezur corridor
Introduction:
The Caucasus is geographically divided into North and South Caucasus. The North Caucasus is geographically included in the territory of the Russian Federation. As an independent territory, the South Caucasus region unites three states - Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia. Historically, the South Caucasus has been a geographical area of interest to the world's powerful states, influential organizations and companies with its suitable and favorable parameters. This process is still ongoing. The South Caucasus region, with its favorable climate, rich natural and energy resources, working human capital, and favorable location, has always been a place where the interests of the powerful states and institutions of the world are directed and their interests collide. Historically, the South Caucasus region has been the most turbulent region, a victim of big games, and this process is currently being continued in various forms and content. From time to time, powerful states in the region have waged wars to capture new wealth or caused bloody conflicts by sowing seeds of discord among the various peoples and ethnic groups of the region. All this has hindered the political and economic development of the region and left it behind from modern global integration.
In the presented article, the non-constructive policy currently conducted by Armenia in the South Caucasus region was analyzed and criticized. The topic chosen for the article reflects the current situation in the South Caucasus, so it can be considered relevant.
Methodological basis of the research. In order to objectively examine the topic presented in the article, historical, statistical comparative, analysis, and contrastive-comparative methods were referred to in its writing.
The main purpose in bringing such an actual topic to the research is to analyze the processes taking place in the South Caucasus and to criticize the revanchist policy of Armenia and to prove how ill-conceived its insidious policy against the state of Azerbaijan is.
Armenia increases tension in the South Caucasus. Since the 90s of the last century, the South Caucasus region has been tested by many conflicts. For example, starting from 1988, Armenia's obvious land claim against Azerbaijan, and then its aggression and occupation of Azerbaijani lands, as well as the Russian-Georgian war, are among the factors that hinder the development of the region. Besides, Armenia's open genocide claim against Turkey, land claim regarding Javakheti region from Georgia,
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etc. such issues prevented the development prospects of the states of the South Caucasus region, and caused this region, which has a high development potential, to lag behind the global development dynamics for perhaps half a century. Azerbaijan was the state that suffered the most materially and morally from these events that took place in the South Caucasus. For nearly thirty years, Azerbaijan, which has only seen aggressive and destructive policies from its closest neighbor Armenia, has been busy not only with development, but also with self-defense, resettling nearly one million people who were expelled from their native land, and ensuring their safety. The policy of hostility and aggression carried out by the aggressor Armenia has set back the progress of our country for years. Instead of progressing by following a more modern, innovative development path, our country fought against Armenian vandals, shed blood for the freedom of its native land, and gave thousands of martyrs. However, despite all these acts of sabotage committed by the enemy, Azerbaijan is a country with the most stable, strong economic potential and self-sufficient development power among the South Caucasus Republics. Its geographical position accessible in all respects, the possibility of being a transit country for all kinds of means of transport between East and West, North and South, rich hydrocarbon resources, its consistently balanced policy with countries near and far from the region, and having a strong internal state organization are the main the factors that lead to the increase of Azerbaijan state's influence in the world political arena. At present, Azerbaijan has formed a credible state image for European states, which supports eliminating the energy shortage that arose in the current conditions, that is, during the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war. Azerbaijan continues to cooperate with foreign organizations as a partner state of the Non-Aligned Movement and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. A prestigious summit like COP29 will be held in Azerbaijan on November 11-22, 2024. This is a clear example of great trust and confidence in the state of Azerbaijan.
The historical services of the Great Leader Heydar Aliyev in the establishment of a modern, civilized state of Azerbaijan are undeniable. Seeing the complicated situation in the country, the people of Azerbaijan demanded the return of their leader to power. On June 15, 1993, National leader Heydar Aliyev began to lead the state of Azerbaijan again at the insistence and demand of the people. The great leader devoted all his strength and life to creating a prosperous state. From the first day of his coming to power, he devoted all his strength and ability to increasing the country's economic power, concluding new energy contracts, creating a regular army, improving the welfare of the people, and most importantly, the peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The great leader's return to leadership put an end to the chaos and instability prevailing in Azerbaijan. H. Aliyev directed all material and moral resources of the country to the strengthening of Azerbaijan, establishment of peace and stability. The great leader achieved a ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan on May 12, 1994 with his visionary policy and his influence in the international world. Taking advantage of the created conditions, the leadership of Azerbaijan began to implement a huge project like the "Contract of the Century". The political, strategic and economic importance of the "Contract of the Century" signed on September 20, 1994 for our country is the result of Heydar Aliyev's thoughtful policy. Thus, today, Azerbaijan has become the most trusted partner country that transports its hydrocarbon resources to world markets by realizing large energy projects. Currently, Azerbaijan has a great reputation as the only oil and gas exporting country in the South Caucasus. Transferring the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict from the battlefield to the negotiation table is also a great historical service of Heydar Aliyev.
Today, President Ilham Aliyev consistently and successfully continues the internal and foreign policy line, the foundations of which were laid by Heydar Aliyev. Thus, under the leadership of I. Aliyev, Azerbaijan realized several huge oil and gas projects. At present, the state of Azerbaijan has aimed to become an energy exporter, and in this regard, serious work is being done on "transition to green energy" projects in the country.
The greatest achievement of the Azerbaijani people under the leadership of Ilham Aliyev was the great historical victory achieved by defeating the Armenian vandals in the Second Karabakh War, which lasted for 44 days from September 27 to November 10, 2020. For nearly thirty years, the state of Azerbaijan has tried to gradually resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in peace and tranquility by inviting the Armenian side to the negotiating table. Azerbaijan government strives to solve all these cases within the framework of international legal norms with the participation of influential countries and organizations of the world. However, due to the non-constructive position of the Armenian side, the agreements did not take place and the conflict was not resolved. During all the past years, Armenia only disturbed the peace and stability in the South Caucasus region and prevented the consistent and intensive development of the region. For 30 years, Armenia has pursued an aggressive policy against the people and state of Azerbaijan. As a terrorist state, Armenia occupied 20 percent of our lands, carried out a genocidal policy against the population living there, displaced the rest of the population from their homes, carried out looting and fascist policies in Nagorno-Karabakh and the seven adjacent regions, destroyed all the infrastructure, turned the cities into ruins, insulted our holy places of worship. No powerful state, influential organization evaluated Armenia's actions at the level of international legal norms and demanded that it be given a decent punishment, their activity was only "inaction" and advisory in nature. Thus, for almost thirty years, the criminal Armenia remained unpunished. The criminal's impunity encourages and creates conditions for his new crimes. However, President Ilham Aliyev's position on the Karabakh conflict has always been unchanged, following the policies of the great leader Heydar Aliyev. There could be no compromise in solving this problem. I. Aliyev said in his speech: "For us, the solution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh problem is not only a matter of national interest, but also a matter of national pride " [4]. ]. In all his speeches, the head of the Azerbaijan state directed the attention of the international community to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem and its peaceful solution. In his speeches, he criticized international organizations and states for not taking the issue seriously and for approaching the issue from the position of double standards. The aggressive policy of Armenia has become a threat to the entire South Caucasus region. Ilham Aliyev expressed his unchanged position on the problem as follows: "We will restore our territorial integrity. This conflict should be resolved only on the basis of international law and decisions of international organizations... We can resolve these issues constructively. Peace in the region will bring many benefits to all. Azerbaijan will restore its territorial integrity and our people will have the opportunity to live again in their native places, in the lands of their great-grandfathers. Armenia should end its occupation policy. Armenia should put an end to the image of a country that occupies the territory of another sovereign country" [2].
However, the Armenian leadership did not give up its destructive and insidious policy. Thus, Armenian Prime Minister N. Pashinyan stated during his speech in Khankendi on August 5, 2019 that "Karabakh is a part of Armenia and full stop ". His statement meant a new threat to our country, the start of a new war. With this statement, N. Pashinyan once again proved that Armenia is an aggressor state, disregards any norms and principles of international law, disrespects the UN Charter, the Helsinki Final Act, and the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group. President Ilham Aliyev gave the following answer to this statement made by N. Pashinyan on October 3, 2019 during his speech at the XVI annual report of "Valday" International Discussion Club: "Karabakh is a part of Armenia and full stop. First, to put it mildly, this is a lie. Both Aran and Nagorno-Karabakh are recognized by the world as an integral part of Azerbaijan. Armenia itself does not recognize this illegal institution. Karabakh is the historical, ancient land of Azerbaijan. Thus, Karabakh is Azerbaijan and an exclamation mark" [ 5 ]. This statement of the head of state of Azerbaijan was a call to the brave sons of the motherland. Although I.Aliyev repeatedly warned the international community about the new aggressive policy of Armenia, it was not taken seriously. Armenian vandals occupied Nagorno-Karabakh and seven neighboring regions and started new military provocations against our country in July-August 2020. But the enemy could not realize his evil plans. The head of the country, as always, was firm in his position: "We have the only
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condition for achieving peace. Armenian armed forces must be withdrawn from the occupied territories of Azerbaijan. The whole world recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan" [ 5 ].
However, the enemy did not give up its destructive policy and was preparing for a new war against Azerbaijan. In all his speeches, President I. Aliyev, as the Chairman of the Non-Aligned Movement, at the UN General Assembly meeting on September 21, 2020, once again called on the international community to put pressure on Armenia, because Armenia was clearly preparing for a new war against Azerbaijan. Unfortunately, the international community did not pay enough attention to these statements and did not put pressure on Armenia. Emboldened by this, Armenia launched an attack on the territories of Azerbaijan on September 27, 2020, and received a worthy historical lesson from the brave sons of Azerbaijan.
During the 44-day Karabakh War II, the Azerbaijani army, which demonstrated only offensive combat, did not spare the enemy, taught him a lesson that he will not forget throughout history, and shattered the myth of the "invincible Armenian army". Azerbaijan army liberated the lands occupied by the enemy. Nagorno-Karabakh and seven regions adjacent to it have already been freed from the enemy. On November 10, 2020, Armenian Prime Minister N. Pashinyan signed a shameful act of defeat by Russia's vassalage. This is a great Victory in the history of Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani army under the leadership of Supreme Commander-in-Chief Ilham Aliyev successfully completed the "Iron Fist" operation and realized a great historical victory. Today, the lands of Azerbaijan are free from enemy slavery. The state and people of Azerbaijan are engaged in reviving and rebuilding the lands freed from occupation. In nearly thirty years, the Armenian aggressors looted the cities they occupied, destroyed the entire infrastructure and turned the territories belonging to Azerbaijan into ruins. Of course, the enemy was busy with his own affairs, so they left no stone unturned in these areas. However, the Armenian state received its sufficient and deserved response in this war. The victorious Azerbaijani army completely changed the status-quo, now there is only the territory of the whole state of Azerbaijan.
In the signed tripartite document, the Armenian state officially declared its defeat. A number of important principles were included in the mentioned document. "... Armenia, whose army was crushed, was forced to sign a declaration of surrender on November 10, 2020, and under the conditions put forward by the victorious Azerbaijan, it took upon itself both the liberation of Agdam, Kalbajar and Lachin regions, the withdrawal of all its military units from the territories of Azerbaijan, and it undertook to open the Zangezur corridor and other communications" [10]. After the signing of the declaration, the Armenian state returned Agdam, Kalbajar and Lachin regions to the Azerbaijani state without any military resistance. In this case, the state of Azerbaijan fulfilled its obligation and stopped the military operations against Armenia.
However, even though nearly four years have passed since the signing of the act of capitulation, the Armenian state does not give up its revanchist policy. Armenian armed groups are still illegally operating in Azerbaijan and committing military provocations. The Armenian state is using various means to solve the issue of delimitation and demarcation of the borders of Azerbaijan, determine the terms of peace between the two states, and sign the agreement document. The government of N. Pashinyan, not knowing what to do, is only engaged in political games and acts of manipulation. The Armenian state is trying to extend the time by all means, to avoid solving the main issue. In its position, it is in no hurry to fulfill the obligations it has undertaken by relying on its patrons and tries to get away from the main issue with various political games. Even now, Armenian armed forces fire intensively on Azerbaijani lands almost every day. However, the Armenian state should see the truth today and appreciate the ripe historical conditions, because every patience has a limit. Today, Azerbaijan is a victorious state and it puts forward its own conditions, while Armenia, as a defeated state, must unconditionally fulfill its obligations under the signed agreement.
Currently, Armenia is recognized as an aggressive state in the world political arena. The state of Azerbaijan conducted the Second Karabakh War within the framework of international legal norms, the
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Azerbaij ani army fought for the freedom of its land, defended itself in its native land, returned the ancient and eternal lands of Azerbaijan at the cost of the blood and lives of thousands of martyrs and veterans. President I. Aliyev says in this regard: "We used to fight, shed blood, and give martyrs in our own lands. We have never had eyes on the land of other countries" [8].Today, Azerbaijan is the most developed state of the South Caucasus in all respects - politically, economically and militarily, as well as a trusted partner state, whose word and position are respected and influential.
It is known that the commissions of both states are operating regarding the delimitation and demarcation of the state border between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In its position, Azerbaijan demands the peaceful return of its lands based on the principle of justice. So, on May 24, 2024, the villages of Baganis Ayrim, Ashaghi Eskipara, Kheyrimli and Gizilhajili of Gazakh region, which were under occupation for thirty years, were returned to Azerbaijan without a single shot being fired. Delimitation of 12.7 km long border line and return of villages as a result of delimitation work is a great victory of Azerbaijani diplomacy.
However, the revanchist forces operating in Armenia still continue their aggressive position. Currently, the government in Armenia is in crisis. Thus, the radical revanchist archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, the leader of the "Tavush Movemen for the Motherland" movement, calls people to war again by demanding the resignation of N. Pashinyan and the cabinet of ministers. But all these provocations have no legal basis.
The Armenian state should pragmatically evaluate the historical conditions and use it for its future interests. The Armenian government should appreciate such a step as cooperation in the 3+3 format and effectively use this historical moment as a perspective for the South Caucasus region and its future development. This cooperation means joint action between the states of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia, as well as Russia, Iran and Turkey, which will create conditions for the expansion of all kinds of relations between the countries near and far from the region, and for the increase of logistics opportunities. The mentioned factors can undoubtedly have a positive effect on the crisis situation of Armenia. Of course, if Armenia abandons its revanchist policy and reckless steps.
Although Armenian Prime Minister N. Pashinyan visited Sochi, Moscow, Brussels, Prague, etc. in all his foreign trips. admits that he recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan in his meetings, but does not make any positive progress in practical activities. The Armenian state is delaying the opening of the Zangezur corridor by all means.
However, it is an undeniable fact that today the field belongs to the state of Azerbaijan. As a victorious state, Azerbaijan demands that Armenia, as a defeated party, fulfill its obligations without delay. Among these requirements: 1) Not using one's territory for military purposes against another state; 2) recognition of the indivisibility of Azerbaijani lands and delimitation and demarcation of the state borders of Azerbaijan; 3) Opening of Zangezur Corridor; 4) Restoration of communication links between states, etc. But the Armenian state is still in a waiting position and still, Armenian subversive groups continue to commit military provocations against Azerbaijan. On March 18, 2023, President I.Aliyev expressed his attitude towards the non-constructive policy of the Armenian state during his address to the people in Talish village of Tartar region on the occasion of Novruz holiday: "There is one condition for Armenia to live comfortably in the territory of 29 thousand square kilometers - they must accept our conditions, officially recognize Karabakh as the territory of Azerbaijan, sign a peace treaty with us, carry out delimitation works according to our conditions ... but in that case they can live comfortably in the 29,000 square kilometer area, which only they want now" [ 11 ].
Today, Armenia is the state that violates the general order in the South Caucasus, poses a threat to the achievement of stability and the states of the region. This was the case thirty years ago, and it continues to be so. With the support of some superficially "friendly" states of the region, Armenia is trying to continue its insidious, aggressive policy. Armenia, which receives help from its supporters does
not want to accept its defeated situation, even for a moment. However, this ill-conceived policy could lead the Armenian state to the abyss.
Conclusion:
Today, the tension in the South Caucasus does not subside due to the insidious and disruptive policy of the Armenian state. If Armenia abandons this policy and joins the progressive proposals put forward, it can be said that there will be great opportunities and prospects for the countries near and far in this region, as well as for Armenia and other regional countries.
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