CC BY
15
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8. Islamic banking - what is it, and when will it start working in Russia? // URL: https: //bankiros.ru/ news/islamskij-banking-cto-eto-takoe-i-kogda-nacnet-rabotat-v-rossii-11689?ysclid=lnhmkgg5wh576729985 (date of access: 08.10.2023).
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10. Dzeytov Yu.B. "Problems and prospects for the development of Islamic banking in Russia" // Economics and entrepreneurship, 2023, № 2 (151). P. 298-301.
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Received: 24.10.2023. Accepted for publication: 31.10.2023.
KSENIA ATAMALI. ARAB PRESS ABOUT EVENTS IN UKRAINE
Keywords: Russia; Ukraine; crisis;
Arab world; media.
Ksenia Atamali,
Senior Editor,
Publishing Department of the Journals "Rossiya i Musulmanskiy Mir" & "Russia and the Moslem World", INION RAN, e-mail: mrsxeniya@ya.ru
Citation: Atamali K. Arab Press about Events in Ukraine //
Russia and the Moslem World, 2023, № 4 (322), P. 11-27.
DOI: 10.31249/rmw/2023.04.02
Abstract. This article includes a review of news reports and publications by political experts and observers posted on Internet resources of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon and other Arab countries. The purpose of the work is to familiarize readers with the attitude of the Arab world to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Since the very start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on February 24, 2022, the world media has been closely watching the developments, and the press of Arab countries is no exception. In addition to coverage of the events, Arab media also publishes the results of public opinion polls (especially among Arab youth), as well as articles by Arab researchers, political experts and economists. One can find a variety of expert evaluations and forecasts regarding the events in Ukraine on news websites (both in Arabic and in English) of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon and other Arab countries. Arab journalists and experts tend to write about the impact of the Ukrainian crisis on the Arab world, both from political and economic perspective.
Thus, in May 2022, the pan-Arab news resource Al Araby Al Jadeed published a detailed article on Egypt's stance on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict by academician Takadam al-Khatib, an Egyptian researcher at the University of Berlin. Al-Khatib writes that Egypt is trying to remain neutral by keeping up good relations with both Russia and the West; according to the author, this could lead to the loss of both allies. The article defines Egypt's position on the Ukrainian crisis in a single phrase: "With Russia, but against the war with Ukraine". Cairo is primarily guided by personal reasons, and the conflict entails negative consequences not only in Europe, but also in the Middle East and North Africa. Although Russia remains Egypt's strategic partner, the US is Cairo's main ally that provides financial and military assistance. But still, Egypt keeps purchasing weapons from Russia: Russia delivered five Su-35 fighters in 2018, twelve aircraft in 2022, and another twelve are set to be delivered during 2023, which is a large sale for Russia due to imposed sanctions.
However, the US decision to allow the supply of F-15 fighter jets to Egypt may alienate Egypt from Russia. [1] As reported by the website Egypt Today, Egypt's Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry believes that cooperation between Arab countries is tantamount to cope with the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and its repercussions. [2] At a press conference in Moscow on April 4, 2022, Shoukry proposed Arab countries - Egypt, Jordan, Algeria, Iraq, Sudan and the UAE - as mediators between Russia and Ukraine. [3] President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi issued directives to the government to prepare various scenarios to deal with the repercussions of the crisis. Egypt also formed a crisis committee to counter the impact of the crisis, similar to the one that formed during the COVID-19 pandemic. [4]
In an article for the website Egyptian Streets, Amina Zaineldine, an Adjunct Professor at the American University in Cairo, points out that the fallout of any geopolitical conflict is never limited to the borders of the states involved and goes beyond a purely military matter. The Russian-Ukrainian crisis is no exception. At the beginning of 2022, the global economy was just beginning to pick up after the COVID-19 pandemic, when the events of February 24 sowed new chaos and uncertainty in the global market, causing new disruptions in supply chains and boosting energy and food prices. Within that turmoil, Egypt faced deep economic problems. "But is conflict abroad the only thing behind the problems?" the author asks. Russia and Ukraine are the two largest suppliers of wheat to Egypt, which is the world's largest importer of the commodity [5] and consumes more than 150 kg of bread per capita annually. In early April 2022, Egypt announced that its strategic wheat reserves would last for at least three months of consumption, though the harvest season for local wheat, which provides almost 50 per cent of demand, was just beginning. [6]
Russia and Ukraine are also among Egypt's largest suppliers of tourists (in 2019, Ukraine ranked second highest source of tourists after Germany). Due to restrictions during the
coronavirus pandemic, tourism industry revenue ($14 billion in 2019) dropped by two-thirds in 2020 and was just beginning to recover by 2022. With all of the Ukraine's ports closed, economic sanctions against Russia, and import / export issues of various countries, world trade slowed down, affecting traffic on the Suez Canal, which in 2018 provided Egypt with 5.5 billion dollars in revenue. [6]
Russia is a key player in the oil and gas industry. Consecuently, the fallout of the conflict resulted in the highest oil prices in the last decade. Egypt, historically a net importer of oil and gas, has marginally broken even since 2021, meaning that the direct impact of high oil prices should be minor. However, the author believes that high energy prices will affect the global economy, which in turn will undoubtedly affect the growth of the Egyptian economy. Against the background of these events, at the end of March 2022, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) raised the key rate, which resulted in Egyptian pound falling and prices for essential goods increasing. There was a similar situation in 2016, when Egypt had to conclude an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a loan of $12 billion. Egypt floated its currency and devalued it by 50 per cent, and also cut public spending, especially subsidies. Although these steps were taken in order to strengthen the economy, citizens were unable to contend with rising prices. To cope with the repercussions of the current crisis, Egypt turned to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Gulf countries for help. The recurrence of the situation makes one wonder whether this economic downturn is a direct consequence of the armed conflict in Europe or whether there are more fundamental problems in Egypt's economy that systematically cause such crises. [6]
Samer Atallah, Associate Dean at the Department of Economics at the American University in Cairo, believes that while events in Ukraine certainly affected the current situation in Egypt, they are not the primary cause. He argues that the
vulnerability of the Egyptian economy makes it susceptible to external shocks, making the Ukrainian crisis "the last straw that broke the camel's back". All these turbulences are harmful for a fragile economy; investments received by Egypt are referred to as 'hot money' and those are the first-to-come, first-to-leave kinds of investments. Egypt has been attracting such investments since 2016, and while profitable in the short term, they are vulnerable in the face of any economic, financial or political shocks. There has been little direct foreign investment to provide the economy with stable foreign capital and thus strengthen the economy and stimulate its growth. For Egypt to attract long-term direct investment, Atallah believes that structural changes to the country's economic landscape are necessary. Egypt is lagging behind in creating an advantage for itself in terms of manufacturing and exports, and the booming construction and real estate sector has not boosted the country's economy or given Egypt an edge in the global market. The staggering effect that events in Ukraine have had on Egypt exposes the vulnerabilities in Egypt's national economic model. [6]
Speaking about the grain crisis in Egypt, it should be noted that in 2020 Russian imports amounted to $2.5 billion, of which 64 per cent ($1.6 billion) was wheat. Egypt Today states that same year the volume of imports from Ukraine reached $1.6 billion, including grain crops worth about $1.2 billion (wheat and corn worth 690 and 461 million dollars, respectively), which amounted to 75 per cent of total imports. [7] On February 24, 2022, Ihab Nasr, Egypt's ambassador to Russia said that over the last period Egypt had increased strategic wheat reserves, which would help cushion the blow. [5] In early March, Egypt's Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation announced that 3.65 million tons of wheat had been harvested since the beginning of the year. After the start of the harvest season, annual wheat production would amount to 10 million tons by the end of 2022. Imported wheat was expected to cover the population's needs for four months starting in March, while Egyptian wheat was going to
meet demand until the end of 2022. [8] Cabinet spokesperson Nader Saad noted that although imports of wheat from Russia and Ukraine were difficult, it had no impact on supply of other commodities from other countries. [9] Thus, Minister of Supply and Internal Trade Ali al-Moselhy reported that 63,000 tons of wheat was being delivered from France, and another 189,000 tons (63,000 tons each) was set to be shipped from Romania, Russia, and Ukraine. [8] As of June, Egyptian farmers had supplied 3.92 million tons of wheat, which was estimated to be enough to meet the country's needs until January 2023. [10]
On July 22, 2022, in Istanbul, representatives of Russia and Ukraine, with the mediation of the UN and Turkey, signed an agreement to unblock Ukrainian Black Sea ports for 120 days. According to Egypt Independent (English language version of the website Al-Masry Al-Youm), since August 1, 622,000 tons of grain had been shipped from Ukrainian ports. [11] In August, Ali al-Moselhy said that since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the government had purchased 4.2 million tons of locally-grown wheat in order to produce subsidized bread, and imported 1.8 million tons of wheat of various origins. [10] On November 17, 2022, the Black Sea Grain Initiative was extended for another period of 120 days, and in March and May 2023 - for 60 days each. The agreement expired on July 17, 2023.
In order to prevent future bread shortages, the Egyptian government intends to increase the area of the wheat crops by 1.5 million feddans (630 hectares) over the next three years. [12]
In addition to the import of commodities to Egypt, one should mention Egypt's exports to Russia and Ukraine, which were also adversely affected by the conflict. According to Egypt Today, Egypt prevents exporting medicine if the country suffers a shortage in the local market. However, at the end of March 2022, Presidential Advisor for Health Dr. Mohamed Awad Taj El-Din said that the crisis in Europe would not affect Egyptian pharmaceutical companies, which had sufficient strategic reserves. [13]
As for food exports, in 2014, food exports to Russia amounted to merely 17 million dollars, but in 2021 reached 64 million; in total, food exports amounted to $267 million between 2014 and 2021. The total volume of Egyptian non-oil exports to Russia in 2021 amounted to $484 million. Egyptian food exports to Ukraine amounted to $3.3 million in 2021, reaching a total of about $21 million between 2014 and 2021. Egypt's non-oil exports to Ukraine in 2021 amounted to $99 million. [14]
Looking at hard numbers, according to Egypt's Ministry of Planning and Economic Development, at the beginning of June 2022, the Russian-Ukrainian crisis affected Egypt as follows: [15]
Before the crisis After the crisis
Economic growth rate 6,4 per cent 5,5 per cent
Inflation 7-7,5 per cent 10 per cent
Unemployment Less than 7 per cent 7,5-8 per cent
Investment rate in GDP 18 per cent 15,5 per cent
The news website Arab News, based in Saudi Arabia, reports that the events in Ukraine created an economic crisis in Egypt, which is experiencing a shortage of foreign currency. In 2022, the Egyptian government cut down government and commercial energy use in order to ramp up exports of natural gas, which is a major source of foreign currency income. Among other energy saving measures was the decision to use daylight saving time after a seven-year gap. Changing the clocks "comes in light of global circumstances and economic shifts as the government strives to rationalize energy usage," the cabinet said. [16] Another unorthodox decision was to allow expatriates to import cars for personal use free of customs duties and taxes in exchange for a deposit in foreign currency. As of April 2023, the initiative had already raised $385 million, and according to Minister of Finance Mohamed Maait, the government works on attracting $1.6 billion within the framework of the initiative. [17] Arab News writes that in December 2022, the IMF agreed to provide Egypt with
$3 billion through a 46-month agreement. The IMF expected the agreement to encourage investments into the country worth approximately $14 billion from international and regional partners including Gulf countries. However, the IMF estimated that Egypt would face an external financing gap of $16 billion. It should be noted that since the beginning of the conflict, prices for oil and raw materials in Egypt have soared, and the Egyptian pound has been devalued against the dollar. [18]
Between April 26 and May 4, 2022, Arab News and YouGov conducted an opinion poll on the events in Ukraine in 14 Arab countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Out of 7,835 respondents, 66 per cent take no stance on the conflict, 18 per cent support Ukraine, and 16 per cent support Russia. More than half (53 per cent) of respondents believe that Arab countries should act as mediators to try to resolve the conflict diplomatically, 38 per cent support maintaining neutrality, 5 per cent say Arab countries should side with Russia, and 4 per cent - side with Ukraine. Also, 27 per cent of respondents have faith in Arab outlets, 21 per cent trust Western media coverage of the conflict, 8 per cent trust Russian media coverage, and 11 per cent rely on other sources of information. However, one-third (33 per cent) trust no media coverage of the conflict. [19]
At the end of March 2023, Arab News published a noteworthy article by Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami, Head of the International Institute for Iranian Studies. Al-Sulami notes that although the West has developed a strong informal diplomacy aimed at resolving all sorts of conflicts, there are very few Track II diplomatic meetings dealing with the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. His explanation is that organizations like the Carnegie Endowment have decided to close their offices in Moscow -ostensibly for security reasons - at a time when they are most needed. In addition, there are no Ukrainian institutions willing to take part in such informal diplomatic activities. For Arab states and research institutions, this lack of civilian diplomacy would come as a surprise, since there have often been informal meetings
to bring peace to countries such as Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Libya. According to the author, this can be explained by the politicization of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the West, amplifying the Western discourse on the Russian "invasion" of Ukraine, and the information war. Given the lack of high-level political negotiations, he deems it necessary for non-Western think tanks to be part of Track II diplomatic activities regarding the Ukrainian crisis. This would benefit not only Europeans, but also the entire world, given the international repercussions of the conflict. [20]
It should be noted that Saudi Arabia has expressed its willingness to act as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine. As reported by Al-Ekhbariya, speaking during an official visit to Moscow in early March 2023, Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Faisal affirmed the Kingdom's support for all efforts to find a political solution to the conflict. His Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov expressed his appreciation for the Kingdom's efforts toward regional and international peace, especially with regard to the crisis between Russia and Ukraine and the conflict in Yemen. [21] At the same time, Saudi Arabia is actively providing humanitarian assistance to Ukraine: 168 tons of aid containing shelter materials, electric generators and medical supplies were shipped by two planes via Poland. Also, the Kingdom signed a memorandum on providing an additional package of humanitarian assistance worth $400 million. [22]
Speaking about tourism, one should mention 'energy tourism,' as the Saudi website Asharq Al-Awsat calls a new European trend Ahead of winter 2022/23, 'energy refugees' from Europe booked resorts in Egypt and Turkey to escape exorbitant tariffs for heating. The energy crisis stems from cuts in Russian gas supplies due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Travel companies were trying to exploit the situation by selling tours to southern countries, primarily Egypt, Tunisia, Turkey and Morocco. As of September 2022, Egypt reported an increase in the number of hotel bookings for the winter period. [23]
In March 2023, Arab News published an article on visa-free travel by Dr. Diana Galeeva, the author of books on Qatar and relations between Russia and the Gulf countries. Russia is preparing intergovernmental agreements to allow visa-free travel to 11 countries, including the Gulf states Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman. The Kingdom expects Russian tourism spend to reach about $2.2 billion in 2023. The economic benefits of easing visa restrictions are vital for Russian economy, which has been hit hard by sanctions. Further developments in the Ukrainian conflict, or possible pressure from Washington, may slow down the process. Nevertheless, as recent policies of all Gulf states have shown, they are increasingly prioritizing their national interests. [24]
Discussing the press of the United Arab Emirates, one should have a look at the website Arabian Business, which in September 2022 published the results of an opinion survey of Arab youth on the conflict in Ukraine. According to the 14th annual ASDA'A BCW survey, 31 per cent of respondents blame the US and NATO for the start of the conflict, and 18 per cent blame Russia. Moreover, 41 per cent of young people surveyed in the Levant and 29 per cent in North Africa believe the US and NATO should be held responsible, while Gulf youth are more divided on the issue: 22 per cent place responsibility on Russia and 21 per cent - on the US and NATO. [25]
Out of Lebanese media resources, the pan-Arab website Al Mayadeen is one of the most prominent ones. On the anniversary of the start of hostilities, Al Mayadeen published an article by Ilyas Farhat, a military observer and retired brigadier general of the Lebanese army. Farhat believes that Russia will be victorious in the confrontation with the collective West. The author gives a detailed analysis of the historical background of the conflict since the beginning of the last century and emphasizes that Russia opposes not so much Ukraine, but all of NATO that seeks to divide the state. According to the author, NATO fears that Russia's victory in Ukraine will be the end of
the unipolar world. Farhat points out that the US is involved in the conflict only financially, not losing any soldiers; at the same time it uses Ukraine as a testing ground for confrontation with Russia. The political commentator believes that the current conflict may drag on, but Russia will win in the end. [26] Also, a columnist for the online version of the Lebanese newspaper Ad-Diyar discusses the Russia-China clash with the US. He believes that ongoing global developments are beginning to shape a multipolar world that has its roots in the Middle East. [27]
Hamzah Rifaat, an analyst for Al Mayadeen English, notes that Ukraine does not desire peace since it spurns veteran US diplomat and former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger's call for de-escalation of the conflict and pursuing negotiated peace with Russia. The author believes that multi-billion dollar military aid packages from the US artificially prolong hostilities, and the lack of negotiations between the parties further fuels the conflict. [28] In another article published to commemorate the 24 February anniversary, Rifaat gives his opinion on the roots of the conflict, linking its onset to NATO's historical expansionist ambitions in Eastern Europe. Taking a look at the first year of hostilities, he draws readers' attention to the human and material losses, the flow of refugees into Europe, and the entire world struggling with the disastrous economic repercussions of the conflict. Rifaat writes that the sanctions strategy "constitutes a quintessential hegemonic power play where the world is being divided into pro-Ukraine and pro-Russian camps with little room for neutrality or sanity to prevail." He emphasizes that most countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East have refused to isolate Moscow. [29]
Another Al Mayadeen author, Hannan Hussain, writes that the protracted conflict has cost the global economy more than 1.6 trillion dollars, 11 thousand counterproductive sanctions against Moscow are driving ideological rifts between countries, and Western offensive diplomacy has not brought the parties any closer to peace. The author criticizes Washington and NATO for
the lack of proactive diplomacy and pressuring neutral countries into taking sides at the expense of energy and economic stability. He calls for an immediate, people-oriented, diplomatic approach to resolving the conflict in Ukraine. [30]
As for Jordanian online media, there is a great English-language website Jordan News. Articles by Osama Al Sharif, a journalist and political commentator based in Amman, deserve special attention. In one of the articles, the author makes a reference to the US-British invasion of Iraq, the US occupation of Afghanistan and Israel's aggression towards Palestine, drawing a parallel with the Ukrainian crisis. He notes the failure of the UN as an instrument of conflict resolution, and also draws our attention to Western selective justice and double standards in implementing international law. The West rushes to accuse Russia, but at the same time turns a blind eye to the events in Iraq, Afghanistan and Palestine. According to the author, the world's post-1990 legal structure finds itself in a state of entropy and beyond repair. In conclusion, he writes that justice is blind in its impartiality, but in the case of Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan and other countries, Western justice is not only blind, but also mute and deaf. [31]
In another article, Al Sharif examines Russia's efforts to normalize ties between Syria and Turkey against the backdrop of the developments in Ukraine and rising tensions between Moscow and the West. He notes that the operation in Syria was a great success: there are now permanent naval and air bases, which have allowed Russia to extend its military and political influence across the Mediterranean to Libya and the Red Sea as far as Sudan. The author compares Russia's military presence in Syria to that in Ukraine, noting that Russia seeks to secure its gains in Syria and bolster its shaky alliance with Turkey, which supports Syrian rebels. A rapprochement between Damascus and Ankara would deal a solid blow to the Syrian opposition and would likely put an end to Turkish military support for rebel
groups in Idlib. He concludes that this would allow Russia to focus on the Ukrainian crisis. [32]
International news commentator Faisal Al Yafai draws a parallel with Syria, noting that a conflict on the scale of the Syrian war has vast external consequences that indirectly, yet immensely affect politics, economics and social order of countries far beyond the conflict. Therefore, it can be tempting to freeze the conflict to deal only with externalities such as refugees or border skirmishes. The author notes that in a year the conflict in Ukraine may be frozen. With both sides determined to escalate hostilities, there is no hope to resolve the situation diplomatically any time soon. Al Yafai stresses that frozen conflicts benefit the aggressor, because they remove the momentum from their opponents, and rely heavily on other political events to distract supporters. Eventually, something unexpected happens that pressures third countries to find a solution, however imperfect. [33]
As for the economic consequences for the country, Jordan News refers to a statement by Jordan's Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, Nasser Shraideh, announcing that the Kingdom's GDP grew by 2.7 per cent in 2022. Shraideh particularly emphasizes the role of national industry and the growth in foreign investment and tourism sector in the rise of GDP. Thus, despite global economic challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the repercussions of the Ukrainian crisis, Jordanian economy has not suffered. [34] According to Dr. Yusuf Mansur, economist and former Minister of State for Economic Affairs, inflation in Europe and the US has slowed and is expected to continue to slow during 2023, though interest rates do not seem to be heading toward a recession. Meanwhile, Jordan, which was facing a 13-year long depression, saw slight gains in terms of growth rates in 2022. This is due to the fact that the Kingdom benefits when the world goes into a recession as the prices of imports, which are almost three times its exports, fall. Mansur also notes that prices of certain commodities, such as wheat, may rise due to shrinking supply. In 2022, Jordan got
lucky because wheat purchases had been made before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict began; however, the cost of wheat will rise in the future. [35]
In conclusion, the Arab media covers the events in Ukraine comprehensively, paying attention to particulars; it reports on both political and economic matters of the conflict. It should also be noted that journalists and political commentators around the world tend to view the Russian-Ukraine conflict in the context of its repercussions for their native countries, especially focusing on the economic aspect.
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Received: 13.09.2023.
Accepted for publication: 28.09.2023.
