Approaching wave of global debt crises and Armenia Текст научной статьи по специальности «Экономика и бизнес»

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2 Argentina : Technical Assistance Report-Staff Technical Note on Public Debt Sustainability, International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept., March 20, 2020, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/ Issues/2020/03/20/Argentina-Technical-Assistance-Report-Staff-Technical-Note-on-Public-Debt-Sustainabili-ty-49284

3 Argentina ready to consider ninth sovereign default, says Guzman, https://www.ft.com/content/cbe90202-0374-40ad-948f-ed850c3e45c9 (wjgbLmpjmh' 10/05/2020)

4 This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff.

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5 Global Waves of Debt: Causes and Consequences. World Bank Group. December 2019. Washington DC, https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/publication/waves-of-debt

6 Restructuring Argentina's Private Debt is Essential. Joseph E. Stiglitz, Edmund S. Phelps, Carmen M. Reinhart. May 6, 2020. Project Syndicate.

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8 Suspend Emerging and Developing Economies' Debt Payments. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff. Apr 13, 2020. Project Syndicate.

9 G20 agrees debt relief for low income nations. Financial Times. April 15, 2020, https://www.ft.com/con-tent/5f296d54-d29e-4e87-ae7d-95ca6c0598d5

'0 Confronting the Crisis: Priorities for the Global Economy, Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director, April 9, 2020, https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/04/07/sp040920-SMs2020-Curtain-Raiser

'' The EU Should Issue Perpetual Bonds. George Soros. Apr 20, 2020. Project Syndicate.

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Argentina: Technical Assistance Report-Staff Technical Note on Public Debt Sustain-ability, International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept., March 20, 2020. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/ Issues/2020/03/20/Argentina-Technical-As-sistance-Report-Staff-Technical-Note-on-Pub-lic-Debt-Sustainability-49284 Argentina ready to consider ninth sovereign default, says Guzman. https://www.ft.com/ content/cbe90202-0374-40ad-948f-ed-850c3e45c9

This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff.

Global Waves of Debt: Causes and Consequences. World Bank Group. December 2019. Washington DC. https://www.woHd-bank.org/en/research/publication/waves-of-debt

Restructuring Argentina's Private Debt is Essential. Joseph E. Stiglitz, Edmund S. Phelps, Carmen M. Reinhart. May 6, 2020. Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/ commentary/argentina-sovereign-debt-re-structuring-private-creditors-by-joseph-e-sti-glitz-et-al-2020-05

Suspend Emerging and Developing Econo-

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mies' Debt Payments. Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff. Apr 13, 2020. Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/ commentary/suspend-emerging-and-develop-ing-economies-debt-payments-by-carmen-re-inhart-and-kenneth-rogoff-2020-04 G20 agrees debt relief for low income nations. Financial Times. April 15, 2020, https://www.ft.com/content/5f296d54-d29e-4e87-ae7d-95ca6c0598d5 Confronting the Crisis: Priorities for the Global Economy, Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director April 9, 2020. https:// www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/04/07/ sp040920-SMs2020-Curtain-Raiser IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2020: The Great Lockdown, https://www.imf.org/ en/Publications/WE0/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020

IMF, Fiscal Monitor - April 2020: https:// www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Is-sues/2020/04/06/fiscal-monitor-april-2020 11. The EU Should Issue Perpetual Bonds. George Soros. Apr 20, 2020. Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate. org/commentary/finance-european-union-re-covery-with-perpetual-bonds-by-george-so-ros-2020-04

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Нарек КАРАПЕТЯН

Эксперт исследовательского центре "Амберд", АГЭУ,

аспирант

ФИНАНСОВАЯ СИСТЕМА

ПРИБЛИЖАЮЩАЯСЯ ВОЛНА ГЛОБАЛЬНЫХ ДОЛГОВЫХ КРИЗИСОВ И АРМЕНИЯ

Несмотря на то, что мир вступил в 2020 год с госдолгом и долгом частного сектора на историческом максимуме, после того как разразилась пандемия нет другого выбора, кроме как допустить большие бюджетные дефициты, чем в 2009 году. Руководствуясь историей, ведущие экономисты бьют тревогу о приближающейся волне долговых кризисов во всем мире и предлагают предпринять решительные действия на международном уровне. В основном, в опасности развивающиеся страны, и предложение состоит в том, чтобы специально "заботиться" о них. Но мы уверены, что потенциал каждой страны является ключевым, в частности — доверие и стабильный доступ к финансовому рынку. На протяжении десятилетий шаг за шагом создавая внутренний долговой рынок, Армения формировала свой буфер безопасности, который уже доказывает свою надежность.

Ключевые слова: дефицит, дефолт, волна накопления долга, реструктуризация, мораторий, долговой рынок

Narek KARAPETYAN

Expert at "Amberd" Research Center, ASUE,

PhD student

FINANCIAL SYSTEM

APPROACHING WAVE OF GLOBAL DEBT CRISES AND ARMENIA

Even though the world entered 2020 with public and private debt at historical highs, there is no other choice than to run budget deficits higher then 2009 after the pandemic sparked. Making the history as a guide, leading economists alarm on approaching wave of debt crises globally and propose to take drastic action at the international level. Mostly developing economies are at the risk, and the proposal is to take special "care" for them. But we believe that the capacity of each country is the key, and particularly for this case, credibility and stable access to financial market. Step by step, building the domestic debt market by decades, Armenia now has a security buffer, which is already proving its reliability.

Key words: deficit, default, debt accumulation wave, restructuring, moratorium, debt market