30Анализ основ и влияющих факторов энергетического сотрудничества Китая и Центральной Азии
Кайян Чжун
аспирант Школы международной экономики и международных отношений экономического факультета Ляонинского университета, [email protected].
Китай и страны Центральной Азии постоянно развиваются в сфере энергетики. Дополнительные и взаимовыгодные энергетические преимущества, расширение каналов энергетической связи и постоянное совершенствование трубопроводов для транспортировки энергии стали необходимыми для энергетического сотрудничества между двумя сторонами и укрепления их отношений в области энергетического сотрудничества. Между тем, сотрудничество между Китаем и странами Центральной Азии также сталкивается со сложной ситуацией, в основном из-за несправедливого международного энергетического порядка, игры между крупными державами в Центральной Азии, комбинированного воздействия различных факторов внутри страны и жесткой конкуренции многонациональных энергетические компании. В настоящее время подчеркивается взаимная выгода от энергетики между Китаем и странами Центральной Азии, и их энергетическая зависимость будет углубляться. Ключевые слова: энергетическое сотрудничество; Китай; страны Центральной Азии
1. Introduction
Against the backdrop of the volatile international energy situation and the fluctuating prices in the global energy market, the energy issue has become international. Energy cooperation between China and Central Asian countries has attracted much attention. China's dependence on imported oil and gas resources continues to increase, and Central Asian countries, especially Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, are rich in oil and gas resources. Therefore, China's energy market has great potential for Central Asian countries, and both are mutually essential energy partners. However, the competition between major powers such as Russia and the United States has become fierce in Central Asia. Multinational companies have gradually become essential players on the international stage, particularly affecting the energy cooperation between China and Central Asian countries. In 2022, with frequent high-level interaction between the two sides, energy cooperation development has become a critical issue, and energy cooperation and dependence between them will change.
2. The Foundations of China-Central Asian countries' energy cooperation
With the constant development of political mutual trust and economic and trade cooperation between China and Central Asian countries, the common interests of the two in the energy sector have expanded. The energy cooperation between the two sides focuses on complementary energy demands, develops communication channels as a means, and improves energy transportation facilities as a guarantee, gradually deepening energy dependence.
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Источник финансирования: Общий проект молодежного исследовательского фонда Ляонинского университета «Внутренняя логика и эмпирический анализ теории «мягкого баланса» на постсоветском пространстве» (Ьй0М2020005)
2.1 Complementary and mutually beneficial energy advantages
China's fossil energy has the characteristics of being "rich in coal, short of oil, and low in gas". According to the 2022 BP Statistical Review of World Energy data, by the end of 2020, China's proven oil, natural gas, and coal reserves were 26 billion barrels, 8.4 trillion cubic meters, and 143.197 billion tons, respectively. China's energy consumption demand continues to grow along with sustained economic development. In 2021, China produced 198.9 million tons of oil and 209.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas, while oil and gas consumption was 718.5 million tons and 378.7 billion cubic meters, respectively. [1] China's oil and natural gas consumption far exceeds production, the oil, and natural gas supply is in short supply, and there is an enormous gap between supply and demand.
Central Asia is rich in energy resources, with oil and natural gas mainly concentrated in Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. According to the 2022 BP Statistical Review of World Energy data, Kazakhstan's proven oil reserves reached 30 billion barrels in 2020, 4 billion barrels more than China's. And it has the largest oil reserves among the three countries. Turkmenistan's proven natural gas reserves were 13.6 trillion cubic meters, the most abundant among the three countries. In terms of oil and gas production and demand in the three countries, for oil, the oil production of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan in 2021 was 86 million tons, 12 million tons, and 2.7 million tons, respectively, while the oil consumption was 14.5 million tons, 6.5 million tons and 3.9 million tons respectively. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan produce more oil than they consume, with Kazakhstan, in particular, having nearly six times as much. For natural gas, in 2021, gas production in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan was 32 billion cubic meters, 799.3 billion cubic meters, and 50.9 billion cubic meters, respectively, while their gas consumption was 15.1 billion cubic meters, 36.7 billion cubic meters, and 46.4 billion cubic meters respectively. The production of natural gas in the three countries is greater than the consumption of natural gas. Among them, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have relatively abundant remaining production, enough to export to other natural gas-consuming countries.
It can be seen that, on the one hand, China is a significant energy consumer, and the supply of oil and gas is in short supply, so it can get stable and cheap oil and gas supply from Central Asian countries to meet its production and living needs. On the other hand, in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, the collection of oil and gas exceeds the demand as a whole, and abundant remaining oil and gas production is sold to the Chinese market, which broadens the channels for energy foreign exchange income. Therefore, the complementary and mutually beneficial energy advantages of China and Central Asian countries have become one of the foundations of energy cooperation between the two sides.
2.2 Expansion of energy communication channels
The energy cooperation channels between China and Central Asian countries are being expanded. Intergovernmental energy cooperation, cross-intergovernmental, and transnational energy cooperation mechanisms have been gradually established, enabling high-level energy ideas to be transformed into practical projects and implemented.
High-level national leaders constitute the intergovernmental energy cooperation mechanism between China and Central Asian countries for interaction, most typically the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). China and Central Asian countries can rely on the SCO to further strengthen energy cooperation among member states. In September 2022, the 22nd meeting of the Council of Heads of Member States of the SCO was held in Samarkand, and the "Statement on Maintaining International Energy Security" [2] was adopted. The statement pointed out that all parties must cooperate to ensure energy security within the SCO framework.
As a medium for implementing the high-level strategic cooperation concept, the cross-intergovernmental energy cooperation mechanism requires forming a series of entities coordinating specific cooperation projects to undertake to upload and issue tasks. [3] For example, the Secretariat of the SCO permanent body and the economic and trade SubCommittee under the intergovernmental committee coordinate economic and trade cooperation, including energy.
The transnational energy cooperation mechanism is mainly composed of transnational energy companies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), whose purpose is to promote the implementation of specific cooperation projects. [4] In November 2019, China National Petroleum Corporation and Kazakhstan National Oil and Gas Corporation signed the "Memorandum on Expanding Cooperation in the Oil and Gas Field". It will fully dovetail with the "One Belt and One Road" initiative and the "Bright Road" new economic policy. Foster China-Kazakhstan Oil and gas cooperation will develop deeper and more practical. [5]
2.3 Continuous improvement of energy transportation pipelines
In terms of oil, the China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline has become an essential focus of oil cooperation between China and Central Asian countries. In 2003, China and Kazakhstan reached an agreement on phased oil pipeline construction from Atyrau, Kazakhstan, to Alashankou, China. The first phase project and the second phase project of the China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline were completed in 2005 and 2009 respectively and began to put oil into operation.
Regarding natural gas, the China-Central Asia natural gas pipeline is currently divided into four lines, A, B, C, and D, which are of key significance to the natural gas cooperation between the two sides. Line A and Line B of the China-Central Asia Natural Gas Pipeline were completed in December 2009 and October 2010, respectively, realizing double-line ventilation. Natural gas from Turkmenistan flowed into Line C of the China-Central Asia Natural Gas Pipeline in June 2014. The new transnational pipeline was successfully produced, and the Central Asia-China energy artery expanded again. In 2020, the No.1 tunnel of the D-line project will be successfully completed, [6] laying a solid foundation for the future comprehensive tunnel construction of the D-line. As of the end of November 2022, the Central Asia natural gas pipeline has delivered over 40 billion standard cubic meters of gas to China this year, providing a strong guarantee for China's domestic natural gas market demand. [7]
China-Central Asia oil and natural gas pipeline has built a bridge for close communication between the two sides, promoting in-depth cooperation in the energy field.
3. Influencing factors of China-Central Asian countries' energy cooperation
Although China and Central Asian countries have made some progress in energy cooperation, energy
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cooperation between the two sides is not a straight path. The cooperation is affected by factors from four levels, international, regional, national, and corporate, and faces many difficulties and challenges.
3.1 International Dimension: an unjust international energy order
For now, the unfair energy order inevitably hinders the smooth cooperation between China and Central Asian countries in the energy field. The existing international energy order is an energy governance system dominated by Western developed countries. The current international energy governance mechanism has natural flaws. One flaw is that the discourse power of developing energy countries mismatches their energy status. [8] China and Central Asian are developing energy-consuming and energy-producing countries, respectively. Their energy discourse power does not match their advantages in the energy field, and the energy dividends they can get are relatively limited compared with Western developed countries. With the changes in the global energy situation, the defects of the worldwide energy governance mechanism have become more and more prominent, which will affect the proactivity of energy cooperation between China and Central Asian countries to a certain extent.
3.2 Regional dimension: great power game
Rich in energy resources, Central Asia has attracted global attention, and its position in the world oil and gas supply and demand and the world energy geopolitical pattern is constantly rising. It is in the center of the Eurasian continent and vulnerable to international competition, especially the game of great powers dominated by Russia and the United States.
Russia regards Central Asia as its traditional sphere of influence. It has been trying to strengthen its control over Central Asian energy resources, and thus counteract the U.S. intention to manipulate the Central Asian region. Russia encourages its national oil and gas companies to participate in the exploration, development, and processing of oil and gas resources in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and other countries. It also promotes the restructuring of the energy companies in Central Asia. Russia has purchased natural gas from Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan at high prices to achieve a price monopoly and called for establishing a CIS gas union. [9]
To compete for energy interests and weaken Russia's influence, the United States has been trying to infiltrate its forces into Central Asia and actively participate in energy development and pipeline construction. The United States has actively promoted the construction of the Turkmenistan-AfghanistanPakistan Gas Pipeline (TAP), shaping and expanding the presence and influence of the United States in the region. It not only can break Russia's monopoly control over the oil and gas resources in Central Asian countries but also form a check on countries such as China, Iran, and India.
It can be seen from this that the game among major powers in Central Asia is mainly reflected in energy and
geopolitical competition. It will not only have a far-reaching impact on Central Asian countries but also change the international power relations between countries in this region and neighboring countries. At the same time, it will have a considerable shock on the geopolitics of the Eurasian continent and the development of the world economy, especially bringing a more complicated situation for China to carry out energy cooperation with the Central Asian countries. [10]
3.3 National dimension: interaction of multiple factors
The internal political, economic, and social factors of the Central Asian countries affect the foreign energy policies of each government and become an essential variable in the energy cooperation between China and Central Asia. On the political front, first, some countries' oil and gas cooperation policies are complex and changeable. The presidents of the five Central Asian countries have enormous arbitrary power in national politics, and policy terms can be altered through presidential decrees. Second, the political stability of the five Central Asian countries varies. Still, they have improved political stability and have made the pursuit of peace the most important goal for the development of the five countries. [11] On the economic front, Central Asian countries with a single financial structure and over-dependent on the energy resource industry may suffer a collapse of their financial system and the stability of their economic development once oil prices fall and their currencies depreciate. At the same time, the investment activities of the Chinese government and enterprises will also be affected. On the social front, three forces, including religious extremist forces, ethnic separatist forces, and international terrorist forces, threaten the security and stability of the Central Asian region, affect the safety of economic, personnel, and trade routes between China and Central Asian countries, and restrict energy cooperation between the two sides.
As China's foreign energy dependence continues to increase, energy security will receive further attention. The combined effect of various factors in Central Asian countries and the complex situation not only affect the confidence of Chinese investors but also lead to many uncertainties in the prospects of energy cooperation between China and Central Asian countries.
3.4 Corporate dimension: fierce competition between multinational energy companies
With the deepening development of economic globalization, multinational corporations play the role of "protagonist" on the international economical stage. Given the strength of large Russian energy companies, it occupies a dominant position in energy cooperation with Central Asia. It has penetrated all links of the energy industry chain. Russian oil company Rosneft and Kazakh company KazMunayGaz have signed a 55-year contract to jointly develop the Kurmangazy field in the Caspian Sea, which belongs to the Kazakhstan block. [12] Gazprom and Uzbek National Oil and Gas Corporation have cooperated to transform the "Central
Asia-Central" and "Bukhara-Ural" gas pipelines. [12] The United States is projecting power in Central Asia to strengthen its grip on global energy markets. U.S. oil companies, such as the Oil Corporation of California, Exxon Mobil, and Chevron Texaco have obtained the exploration and exploitation rights of many oil fields in Central Asia through their advantages in capital and technology.
Consequently, Chinese oil companies face fierce competition for investment in critical energy projects. Western-developed international oil companies have sufficient funds, strength, and preconceived advantage. After decades or nearly a century of growth, they have accumulated rich experience in the energy field. [14] The intense competition between multinational energy companies in Central Asia will raise the risk of energy cooperation between China and Central Asian countries and influence the depth and breadth of their collaboration.
4. Conclusion
China and Central Asian countries will still face some challenges in the future. But currently, the situation in Central Asian countries is relatively stable. With the promotion of China's "Belt and Road" strategy and the economic development needs of Central Asian countries, the mutual benefits of energy between the two sides are highlighted. The degree of energy cooperation between China and Central Asian countries will be deepened, and the level of energy dependence between the two sides will show an upward trend, accelerating the pace of cooperation.
Analysis of the foundations and influencing factors of China-Central Asia energy cooperation
Kaiyan Zhong
Liaoning University
China and Central Asian countries are constantly developing in the energy field. Complementary and mutually beneficial energy advantages, expansion of energy communication channels, and continuous improvement of energy transportation pipelines have become essential for energy cooperation between the two sides and strengthen their energy cooperation relationship. Meanwhile, the collaboration between China and Central Asian countries also faces a complex situation, mainly affected by the unfair international energy order, the game between major powers in Central Asia, the combined effects of various factors within the country, and the fierce competition of multinational energy companies. Currently, the mutual benefits of energy between China and Central Asian countries are highlighted and their energy dependence will deepen.
Keywords: energy cooperation; China; Central Asian countries
References
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12. Eric Watkins, "Russia, Kazakhstan sign Kurmangazy field PSA", OIL&GAS JOURNAL, July 9, 2005, https://www.ogj.com/exploration-development/article/17244163/russia-kazakhstan-sign-kurmangazy-field-
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