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22ANALYSIS OF FOOD SAFETY IN UZBEKISTAN
1Otajonov Umid Abdullayevich, 2Abdurakhmanova Zuhra Takhir kizi
1 Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Department of Marketing and Management,
Tashkent State University of Economics
2 1st stage basic doctoral student, Department of "Mathematical Methods in Economics",
Tashkent State University of Economics, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7729423
Abstract. Food safety is one of the most urgent tasks facing the countries of the world. This problem has not lost its relevance in our country. This article is devoted to food safety, which is one of today's global economic problems, and its specific features in our country. Also, the article reveals the extent of the work carried out to ensure food safety in Uzbekistan on the basis of practical analysis, and relevant conclusions and recommendations are highlighted.
Keywords: inflation, food security, export, import, food price index.
Introduction
Food safety is one of the most urgent tasks facing the countries of the world. The UN is also saying today that it is time to completely change the approach to food production and distribution. After all, in an ideal situation, agriculture, forestry and fisheries are able to provide everyone with food and create a source of income for people, as in the brochure. Moreover, in such a case, agriculture will develop in the interests of people, and environmental protection measures will be implemented. Therefore, the issue of food safety is a guarantee of ensuring the independence, socio-economic and political stability of Uzbekistan as well as all other countries. This problem has not lost its relevance in our country. At the same time, the demand for food products is increasing, and the per capita consumption is increasing due to the growth of the population.
At the moment, the government of Uzbekistan is successfully dealing with emerging threats, but the main problems are still ahead. If we analyzed food safety in Uzbekistan. More than 60 percent of the total food products imported into Uzbekistan are high-calorie staple products, in particular, grains and grain products, vegetable oil and raw materials for its production, as well as sugar. The livestock feed category and, to a lesser extent, meat imports are sensitive to changes in the import situation. Uzbekistan is a net importer of all these goods, which means that changes in import regimes, availability of imported goods and prices of imported products can have a significant impact on the domestic food market and security. Only for vegetables and fruits (except potatoes), the situation in terms of food security in Uzbekistan is relatively good [8].
Literature review
Ensuring food safety in Uzbekistan, in order to improve the standard of living and quality of the population, scientific and practical conferences, as well as a number of economic and analyzes on ensuring food safety, are currently being held in our republic. From these analyses, A.O. Tokhtamurodova's article entitled "Econometric analysis of the level of food security in Uzbekistan" examined the econometric method of the influence of the amount of investments in agriculture on the gross agricultural product [ 1].
J.SH. Tokhtamurodva's article entitled "Analysis of ensuring the safety of production of consumer products" on "Optimization of agricultural arable land for the purpose of rational use of
land and water resources" reduces cotton and grain arable land. Instead, proposals were made for the placement of other agricultural crops. According to this, it was analyzed that the production of the main oil crops in the Republic has increased, and that vegetable oil production has taken the leading place in the Kashkadarya region [2].
Solving the theoretical and practical issues of food security as a component of economic security and justifying its role in the development of society and the well-being of mankind by D.V. Zerakalov, one of the CIS economists, in the monograph "Food Security", many practical analyzes of food security issues in world historical processes is cited.[5]
Many official statistical materials are analyzed about the occurrence of scarcity of food security water resources by the 21st century and the cycle of this global economic problem[10].
Another economist, L. Revenko, in his official article "Food security: there is a possibility to find a solution", raises the issue of distribution of food security on the world stage mainly depending on external flows, that is, depending on the production potential and capacity of countries [6].
Some aspects of the problem being studied in Uzbekistan are generally studied in H.P. Abulqasimov's textbook "Economic Security of the State", while the problem of food security is generally studied, another economist N.Kh. Ergashev shows the importance of insurance in ensuring food security in Uzbekistan [7].
Also, some aspects of the issue of food safety were studied by Sh. Shodmonov, A. Olmasov, T. Joraev, D. Tojiboeva, among the economists of our country, in their textbooks and textbooks. It should be noted that although many years of official publications have been used in the research conducted by foreign scientists, no practical recommendations and suggestions have been given for elimination within the framework of the national economy. In the studied studies, the issue of food security is mainly considered as a factor causing global economic security. The composition of food imports has changed significantly compared to the composition of imports in 2021. In particular, the share of margarine and vegetable oil, meat, potatoes and other agricultural products has increased. At the same time, the analysis of changes in the price indices of export and import of potatoes and wheat in 2021-2022 [8,9].
By the end of 2022, the inflation rate in our country was expected to be around 8-9% per year. However, in today's conditions of increasing external risks, the medium-term inflation forecast has been revised based on the significant increase in the prices of basic food and non-food products and energy resources in the world and its high pass-through effects on domestic prices. According to estimates, the inflation indicator will accelerate starting from the II quarter of 2022, and the annual inflation rate is expected to be around 12-14% by the end of the year. These data were obtained from special websites of the State Statistics Committee [10.11,].
Research methodology
The research was conducted in order to improve the theoretical and practical aspects of food safety issues, and specific priority tasks were determined. In the writing of the article, an attempt was made to reveal the problem using methods such as analysis and logic, and agricultural products, which are among the leading and most important industries that ensure food security in Uzbekistan, i.e. cereal products, as well as sugarcane products and similar products the practical analysis of the released products is covered. Monthly incomes of the population in Uzbekistan and their food needs. Also, products exported and imported from the country. The changes in the population's demand for food or non-food products and the population's demand for such products
have been studied. The necessary information for the research was mainly obtained from the statistical and legal database.
Analysis and results
The issue of expanding the possibilities of food production and meeting the needs of the population is becoming acute every year. The Economist Intelligence Unit analytical agency has announced the results of the Global Food Index (GFSI) for 2021. This was reported by the Institute of Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research. In the general ranking for 2019-2021, Uzbekistan rose by two places and took 78th place among 113 countries in 2021 [12]. The growth of the total volume of food imports was influenced by the increase in average import prices at the level of 5560%, while the growth of the volume of exports of imported products and products made from them is influenced by 40-45%. . Liberalization of foreign trade in our country, reduction of various defined and non-defined restrictions, measures to eliminate monopoly are implemented step by step. As the main problem of ensuring food security of Uzbekistan, it is necessary to limit the export of food products in the main countries that supply food products to the domestic market. This indicates that ensuring food safety is of urgent importance.
The growing international tension has strengthened the negative trends in the world food market. The food crisis, which has escalated against the background of international political instability, is causing various problems for Uzbekistan, and the increase in food prices is leading to a sharp increase in the number of people living below the poverty line. The main problem of ensuring food security of Uzbekistan is to limit the export of food products in the main countries that supply food products to the domestic market.
In the quarterly report provided by the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, in the past 2021 and 2022, against the backdrop of unfavorable weather conditions in many countries, the harvest of basic food products was not as expected, there was a shortage of labor force, bans on the export of products, supply and delivery it is analyzed that a sharp increase in the price of basic types of food products was observed in the world market under the influence of a number of factors, such as interruptions in the supply chain, as well as the fact that the consumption of households is mainly directed to food products. The above circumstances are also reflected in the FAO index, which is an alternative indicator of the price of food products in the world.
Analysts say that the prices of these products may increase by 8-22% due to the imbalance between supply and demand for food and feed products. According to the forecasts announced at the beginning of the year, the inflation rate by the end of 2022 was expected to be around 8-9% per year. However, in today's conditions of increasing external risks, the medium-term inflation forecast has been revised based on the significant increase in the prices of basic food and non-food products and energy resources in the world and its high pass-through effects on domestic prices. According to estimates, the inflation indicator will accelerate from the II quarter of 2022, and the annual inflation rate is expected to be around 12-14% by the end of the year.
Table 1
Food inflation in Uzbekistan between 2021-2022 compared to the corresponding months
Food price inflation
January February March Aprel May
Monthly inflation 1.30% 0.60% 2.50% 2.10% 1.20%
Annual inflation 13.10% 13.10% 14.50% 13.40% 14.20%
Source: Information of the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan
The main problem of ensuring food security of Uzbekistan is to limit the export of food products in the main countries that supply food products to the domestic market. For example, Kazakhstan extended grain and flour export quotas until September 30. Earlier, Russia also imposed restrictions on grain exports until June 30, which were limited to a quota of 11 million tons, including 8 million tons of wheat. The food crisis, which has escalated against the background of international political instability, is causing various problems for Uzbekistan. First, the increase in food prices leads to a sharp increase in the number of people living below the poverty line. Second, the increase in food prices leads to increased social tension, which itself leads to protests. Third, Afghanistan is a potential hotbed for humanitarian disaster caused by rising energy and food prices, which exacerbates the problem of hunger.
Thus, all this requires the country's government to be ready to take quick measures and make the necessary decisions to mitigate the consequences of the crisis for the population in need of social protection. Both Russia and Ukraine supply Central Asia with many types of staple food products. Sugar, grain, wheat, oil, seeds, flour, meat and more come from Russia, the European Union, Kazakhstan and Belarus. Wars and sanctions reduce production capacity, and reduced supply drives up prices everywhere. [9]
Table 2
Foreign trade turnover of Uzbekistan in relation to 2022
Foreign trade turnover of Uzbekistan
Foreign trade turnover Compared to the same period last year Share of exports in foreign trade Import share in foreign trade
in million US dollars It has increased compared to the same period last year It has increased compared to the same period last year in million US dollars
13155.8$ 174.8% 12.8% 73831.1$
Information from the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan, https://qalampir.uz/uz/news/uzbekistonda-ozik-ovk-at-importi-nega-kupaygani-ma-lum-k-ilindi-62357: https ://www.amerikaovozi.com/a/6580581.html
In the first quarter of 2022, the foreign trade turnover of Uzbekistan amounted to 13,155.8 million dollars, an increase of 174.8% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. The share of exports in foreign trade has changed positively and increased by 12.8% compared to the 1st quarter of last year, reaching 43.9%. Total export volume was 5,772.2 million dollars (238.7%). The share of imports decreased to 56.1% and amounted to 7,383.1 million dollars (an increase of 144.6%). [8] In this analytical information, an attempt was made to elucidate the reasons based on the analysis of the factors that influenced the rapid growth of the share and volume of food imports in the foreign trade turnover of the Republic this year compared to January-March 2021. According to the data of the State Statistics and State Customs Committees, the composition of the country's food imports in January-March of this year has changed significantly compared to the composition of imports in 2021. In particular, the share of margarine and vegetable oil, meat, potatoes and other agricultural products has increased.
Table 3
Import share of Uzbekistan in comparison to 2022
Import share of Uzbekistan
Foreign trade turnover Compared to the same period last year Share of exports in foreign trade Import share in foreign trade
in million US dollars It has increased compared to the same period last year It has increased compared to the same period last year in million US dollars
13155.8$ 174.8% 12.8% 73831.1$
The composition of the country's food imports in January-March 2022. The share of margarine and vegetable oil, meat, potatoes and other agricultural products in the composition of
the 2021 import has increased.
Table 4
Import geography of Uzbekistan in 2021-2022 and UN FAO food price index
Import geography UN FAO food price index
Kazakhstan Russia Brazil March 2022 index Compared to the February 2022 index Compared to the March 2021 index
in million US dollars The price index increased in percent
309.7$ 205.2$ 97.5$ 159.3% 13.6% 33.6%
Information from the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan, https://qalampir.uzuz/news/uzbekistonda-ozik-ovk-at-importi-nega-kupaygani-ma-lum-k-ilindi-62357: https ://www.amerikaovozi.com/a/6580581.html
In addition, the geography of import, the share and volume of products have also changed relatively, and among the countries where the main products are imported, Kazakhstan is in first place with $309.7 million, and the Russian Federation is in second place with $205.2 million. and the third place was taken by the country of Brazil with a volume of 97.5 million dollars.
Based on the analysis, the following factors influenced the increase in the country's imports: In March 2022, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the Food Price Index of the FAO was 159.3 points. was 12.6% higher than February and 33.6% higher than March 2021 Index. According to the State Statistics Committee, in the first quarter of 2022, wheat worth 201.6 million dollars was imported in Uzbekistan, which is 62.1 million dollars (43.9%) compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. ) increased by At the same time, 803.6 thousand tons of wheat were imported in this period, 88 thousand tons more than last year. The average price of purchased wheat was 128.7% higher than the same period last year. [8]
The first factor is the unprecedented economic sanctions applied by the United States of America, the European Union and other developed countries against the Russian Federation and Belarus, which has increased prices and logistics tariffs on the world food market at a high rate. As a result, not only Europe the economy will cause price increases and food safety problems that will occur all over the world.
Table 5
Import of wheat and import of potatoes compared to the 1st quarter of 2022
Import of wheat Import of potatoes
1 75 1
Compared to the 1st quarter of 2022
Compared to the same period last year
imported in percent In tons imported in percent In tons
201.6$ 43.9% 88000 38.6$ 168% 75.1
Information from the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan, https://qalampir.uz/uz/news/uzbekistonda-ozik-ovk-at-importi-nega-kupaygani-ma-lum-k-ilindi-62357: https ://www.amerikaovozi.com/a/6580581.html
According to the calculation, the increase in wheat imports by 62.1 million dollars was caused by the 128.7% increase in the average price of wheat purchased this year in the amount of 40.0 million dollars (64.4%) and 88, The purchase of 0,000 tons of wheat contributed to an increase of $22.1 million (35.6%). In the same way, the import of flour amounted to 28.8 million dollars, which increased by 10.8 million dollars (60%) compared to the same period last year. 141.2% increase in the average price of purchased flour caused an increase in import value by 7.4 million dollars (69.1%). The increase in the volume of imported flour by 10.9 thousand tons (60.6%) caused the import value to increase by 3.3 million dollars (30.9%). Import volume of potatoes amounted to 38.6 million dollars, which increased by 24.2 million dollars (168%) compared to the same period last year. The increase in the import of potatoes by 24.2 million dollars was due to the fact that the average price of potatoes purchased this year increased by 180.3% in the amount of 11.6 million dollars (47.8%) and that 75.1 thousand tons were purchased more than 12, 6 million dollars (52.2%). Import value of margarine and margarine products increased by 71.6 million dollars (555.0%) and amounted to 84.5 million dollars. The volume of import of margarine and margarine products increased by 50.2 thousand tons compared to the corresponding period of last year, the total import value increased by 98.1% and the volume increased by 70.3 million dollars (544%). The increase in the average price by 110.4% increased the value of exports by 1.9%. The increase in the import volume of other similar products was greatly influenced by price changes and the volume of re-exports. [8]
The second factor is the increase in the export and re-export of wheat, flour and vegetable oil products by the Republic of Uzbekistan to a number of neighboring countries. had a significant impact on imports. During this period, 270.9 thousand tons of wheat flour worth 85.8 million dollars were exported, which is 42.2 thousand tons or 118.5% more than last year. The increase in the value of flour import was influenced by the increase in the amount of export in the amount of 17.5 million dollars (125.7%). It can be seen that the volume of flour exported from our country is 2.9 times greater than that imported into Uzbekistan. In January-March of this year, 25,700 tons of wheat were exported, which is 25,300 tons (87.3 times) more than last year. Also, the increase in re-export of wheat by 23,300 tons contributed to the increase of import volume by 7.3 million dollars. The main importer of wheat and wheat flour is the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, which imported 25,700 tons of wheat and 270,900 tons of wheat from Uzbekistan in January-March of this year. Export of flour increased by 118.5% or 42.2 thousand tons compared to the corresponding period of last year. In the first quarter of this year, 9,554.4 tons of vegetable oil were exported, which increased by 12.6 times compared to the same period last year. This, in turn, increased the import of vegetable oil by 10.1 million dollars, and the increase in average purchase prices by 112.5% caused an increase in the value of imports by 9.5 million dollars. It is also possible to analyze the rest of the imported products on the basis of the increase in domestic
consumption and the tendency to increase the volumes of finished products made from them for export.
In the first quarter of 2022, the growth of the real income of the population of Uzbekistan slowed down to 3.3%. This indicator was equal to 7.7% in 2021. The share of remittances in the population's income has decreased. At the same time, the total income per capita increased to 3.2 million soums. In January-March, the total income of the population reached 114.2 trillion soums. According to the State Statistics Committee, the growth was 15.9 percent in nominal terms, and 5.4 percent in real terms (taking inflation into account). The growth rate decreased compared to the same indicators in the first quarter of 2021 - 22.1% and 9.8%. In the first three months of 2022, the total income per capita increased to 3.2 million soums. In nominal terms, incomes grew by 13.6%, in real terms by 3.3% (taking into account consumer prices). These indicators are also less than the first quarter of 2021 - 19.8% and 7.7%.
In Uzbekistan, in 2022, compared to 2021, the share of the population's income on nonfood products has increased compared to food products. If the average income of the population is 5 million soums by January, 30% of it is food products and the remaining 60% is non-food products. Nominal income per capita in the city of Tashkent amounted to 7.71 million soums, and the capital remained the leader for three months. Navoi region - 5.76 million soums, Tashkent region - 3.77 million soums, Bukhara region - 3.47 million soums took the next places. Namangan region has the lowest nominal income of the population - 2.33 million soums. One of the important aspects is that the incomes of the population increased in Navoi (+10.2 percent), Fergana (+9.4 percent) and Tashkent (+6.5 percent) regions. In the regions of Bukhara (-0.6 percent), Surkhandarya (-0.4 percent) and Karakalpakstan (-0.3 percent), the income of the population decreased slightly [11].
Conclusion and recommendations
In conclusion, it should be noted that the mechanism of ensuring food safety in the Republic of Uzbekistan includes the following important areas: regulation and promotion of food production, meeting the population's demand for food products, and includes measures to increase its capabilities and improve the system of organizing food safety management. In our opinion, the mechanism for ensuring food safety includes the following measures in the field of regulation and promotion of food production in the agro-industrial complex:
- to create and improve the legal, legal-normative basis of ensuring food safety;
- first of all, the government's efforts are aimed at ensuring food safety in our country, to meet the needs of the population for food products that are imported without production in our country, in a continuous, full range and volume, and to ensure price stability in the markets rice
- paying great attention to the provision of raw, semi-finished and complementary products of the republic's food industry enterprises.
- Liberalization of foreign trade in our country, reduction of various defined and non-defined restrictions, measures to eliminate monopoly should be implemented step by step.
- by diversifying the geography of foreign trade, types of products and raw materials, as well as retailers and supplier countries, it is necessary to take practical measures to ensure sustainable growth of the economy, to satisfy the population's demand for food products, and to ensure price stability.
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