Научная статья на тему 'AMAZON FINANCIAL MODEL'

AMAZON FINANCIAL MODEL Текст научной статьи по специальности «Клиническая медицина»

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Аннотация научной статьи по клинической медицине, автор научной работы — Jerry Xiang, Betty Wang

The balance sheet, the profit and loss (P&L) statement are two of the three financial statements companies issue regularly. Such statements provide an ongoing record of a company’s financial condition and are used by creditors, market analysts and investors to evaluate a company’s financial soundness and growth potential. The third financial statement is called the cash-flow statement [1]. The paper performs analysis and forecasting of future P&L for Amazon.com, Inc. [2], while adjusting Equity or adjusting Asset forecasting for balance sheet. Based on the adjusting the forecasted rate of closing cash vs

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Текст научной работы на тему «AMAZON FINANCIAL MODEL»

Section 2. Mathematical and instrumental methods of economics

https ://doi.org/10.29013/EJEMS-21-2-16-28

Jerry Xiang,

Betty Wang (Ivy Analytics Director, MS Management) E-mail: jxiang23@stevensonschool.org

AMAZON FINANCIAL MODEL

Abstract. The balance sheet, the profit and loss (P&L) statement are two of the three financial statements companies issue regularly. Such statements provide an ongoing record of a company's financial condition and are used by creditors, market analysts and investors to evaluate a company's financial soundness and growth potential. The third financial statement is called the cash-flow statement [1].

The paper performs analysis and forecasting of future P&L for Amazon.com, Inc. [2], while adjusting Equity or adjusting Asset forecasting for balance sheet.

Based on the adjusting the forecasted rate of closing cash vs. cash asset, we can find some interesting conjecture for the Amazon equity buildup trend that could decrease the Equity buildup than others forecasted.

Keywords:

Chapter 1. Introduction

At the quarter-century mark, as July 3, 2019 the closing price is $1,939, Amazon has 647,500 employees, occupies 288.4 million square feet of real estate, and accounts for nearly half of online retail in the United States. It operates in sectors ranging from janitorial services to defense contracting. And with great scale comes intense scrutiny: Amazon has come under fire from civil rights groups, presidential candidates, antitrust regulators and its own employees on issues ranging from facial recognition technology to its light federal income tax bill. Through it all, the company has maintained its intense focus on the customer -

sometimes, critics charge, to the detriment of everyone else [4].

Is this a good company to invest if people asked? As a professional, we cannot tell others witch company to put your money for investment without solid analysis. The only way we provide advice is to value the company. Here are evaluation points. Section 1.1 Industry Analysis We need to understand well the mechanics of the industry, who are the players, what is the value of their proposition. It is also important to acquire an idea what to be expected next in the industry? Is it a mature industry, a growing industry or, a cyclical business?

According to Tyco "Michael Porter" [3], in order to describe a given industry, five forces analysis need to be performed.

1. Threat of new entrants;

2. Threat of substitute;

3. Bargaining power of buyers;

4. Bargaining power of suppliers;

5. Rivalry among existing competitors. Amazon is the leading U.S online retailer with

a 23% market share more than its 12 major competitors including Wal-Mart and Staples (Bowman, 2015: Jan. 15). The market is highly concentrated with the domination of Amazon in terms of online

e-commerce revenues.

Section 1.2 Company Analysis

When we have the proposition valuation of a company, what is its future? This determines the future cash flow of the company. We want to answer the below questions

1. Which are the company's prospects ahead of business?

2. Is the company's competitive formula a valid one?

3. Does the company have s sustainable competitive advantage?

4. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis is the strategy a viable one.

According to an article published on Forbes (2017), the competitive advantage of any company in today's world is considered the extent to which the company is adaptive. Keeping up with the trends is the most important factor in any company's success. In case of Amazon, it has pretty much always worked on this strategy. Expanding even in the first year of its launch, it has been growing ever since and there's no end to it. If there is anything trending in

terms of fashion, technology or innovation, it will most definitely be available on Amazon in all shapes, sizes, and prices.

Section 1.3 Production Positioning Analysis

Product positioning is a form of marketing that presents the benefits of your product to a particular target audience. Through market research and focus groups, marketers can determine which audience to target based on favorable responses to the product. Three types of company positions a company can choose.

Amazon segmentation, targeting and positioning involves a set of activities aimed at determining specific groups of people as customers and developing products and services attractive to this group.

Chapter 2. Financial Model

Section 2.1 Gathering financial information and preliminary analysis

The company's financial information needs to be analyzed. We need to make sure the data from various years are consistent.

Many business events can pollute the quality of the data, like significant write-offs, extra-ordinary business, merger and acquisition. In this type of analysis, whether there are non-operational items, exclude them from valuation because they are valued separately.

Usually, it is very difficult to carry out the task without proper due diligence with access to the company's management. Once financial statement is clean and ready to use, we need to calculate historical ratios for P&L, and balance sheet items. Sometime, history is good proxy for the future.

In this analysis, the Amazon tables of financials, balance sheet and cash flow are used directly from Yahoo.com [2].

Table 1.- Amazon P&L

USD in thousands 2016 2017 2018 2019

1 2 3 4 5

Revenue from sales and services 135.987.000 177.866.000 232.887.000 280.522.000

Other revenue

1 2 3 4 5

Revenue 135.987.000 177.866.000 232.887.000 280.522.000

Cost of Revenue (105.884.000) (137.183.000) (173.183.000) (205.768.000)

Gross Margin 30.103.000 40.683.000 59.704.000 74.754.000

Operating Expenses (17.611.000) (24.551.000) (31.685.000) (37.389.000)

EBITDA 12.492.000 16.132.000 28.019.000 37.365.000

D&A (8.306.000) (12.026.000) (15.598.000) (22.824.000)

EBIT 4.186.000 4.106.000 12.421.000 14.541.000

Financial income/expenses (484.000) (848.000) (1.417.000) (1.600.000)

Extraordinary income 190.000 548.000 257.000 1.035.000

EBT 3.892.000 3.806.000 11.261.000 13.976.000

Taxes (1.425.000) (769.000) (1.197.000) (2.374.000)

Other Cost After Tax (96.000) (4.000) 9.000 (14.000)

Net Income 2.371.000 3.033.000 10.073.000 11.588.000

Area & Line Chart

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Total Revenues 135.987.000 177.866.000 232.887.000 280.522.000

Gross Margin% 22.1% 22.9% 25.6% 26.6%

Figure 1. Amazon Revenue and Gross Margin. FY16-FY19 Revenues and Gross Margin %

The most important element in the whole predicting is the view for the top line of the business. Revenue development is the key. It is usually used as a driver for the rest of elements within the model. We can see that Amazon Revenue and Gross Margin% are almost linearly increase in past four years.

Section 2.2 Building Hypothesis and Scenarios After all these preparation, hypothesis about the future of the business can be built up. Based on historical data, product positioning, and market research, analyst can build an idea of future revenues.

Depending on how sophisticated is the model, there could be some scenarios. Scenarios could approximate the outcomes of different events. For example,

Scenario 1: successful internationalization of the firm.

Scenario 2: un-successful internationalization of the firm, etc.

Scenario 3: non-internationalization

In Amazon Discount Cash Flow Model, we will simply to build a model containing three scenarios.

Table 2.- Scenarios

Case 1 Optimistic case Better than historical growth

Case 2 Base case Average historical growth

Case 3 Worst case Worse than historical growth

Section 2.3 P&L Analysis and Forecasting analysis, help users to understand the influence of

Financial Modeling is all about providing a cor- different parameters. The model should be flexible,

rect mathematical output of the work done previ- precise, clear, and easy to understand by external

ously. Usually a model should include sensitivity users.

Table 3.- Amazon Year to Year Actual P&L

$ in thousands FY16 Actual FY17 Actual FY18 Actual FY19 Actual

1 2 3 4 5

Revenues 135.987.000 177.866.000 232.887.000 280.522.000

y-o-y growth% 30.8% 30.9% 20.5%

Case 1:

Case 2:

Case 3:

Cost of Revenue (75.781.000) (96.500.000) (113.479.000) (131.014.000)

% of revenues -56% -54% -49% -47%

Case 1

Case 2

Case 3

Operating Expenses (17.611.000) (24.551.000) (31.685.000) (37.389.000)

% of revenues -13.0% -13.8% -13.6% -13.3%

Case 1

Case 2

Case 3

D&A (8.306.000) (12.026.000) (15.598.000) (22.824.000)

% of revenues -6.1% -6.8% -6.7% -8.1%

Case 1

Case 2

Case 3

Interest expense (484.000) (848.000) (1.417.000) (1.600.000)

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y-o-y growth% -0.4% -0.5% -0.6% -0.6%

Case 1

Case 2

Case 3

Extraordinary income 190.000 548.000 257.000 1.035.000

% of revenues 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%

Case 1

Case 2

Case 3

1 2 3 4 5

Operating taxes (1.425.000) (769.000) (1.197.000) (2.374.000)

% of EBIT -34.0% -18.7% -9.6% -16.3%

Case 1

Case 2

Case 3

Other Cost After Tax (96.000) (4.000) 9.000 (14.000)

% of EBT -2.5% -0.1% 0.1% -0.1%

Case 1

Case 2

Case 3

Assuming financials, balance sheet and cash flow are clean and ready to use, we have the below forecast.

Table 4.- Amazon Year to Year Forecast P&L

$ in thousands FY20 Forecast FY21 Forecast FY22 Forecast FY23 Forecast FY24 Forecast

1 2 3 4 5 6

Revenues 353.457.720 445.356.727 561.149.476 707.048.340 890.880.909

y-o-y growth% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0%

Case 1: 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0%

Case 2: 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0%

Case 3: 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0%

Cost of Revenue (266.860.579) (336.244.329) (423.667.855) (533.821.497) (672.615.086)

% of revenues -75.5% -75.5% -75.5% -75.5% -75.5%

Case 1 -73.0% -73.0% -73.0% -73.0% -73.0%

Case 2 -75.5% -75.5% -75.5% -75.5% -75.5%

Case 3 -78.0% -78.0% -78.0% -78.0% -78.0%

Operating Expenses (47.363.334) (59.677.801) (75.194.030) (94.744.478) (119.378.042)

% of revenues -13.4% -13.4% -13.4% -13.4% -13.4%

Case 1 -13.8% -13.8% -13.8% -13.8% -13.8%

Case 2 -13.4% -13.4% -13.4% -13.4% -13.4%

Case 3 -13.0% -13.0% -13.0% -13.0% -13.0%

D&A (25.095.498) (31.620.328) (39.841.613) (50.200.432) (63.252.545)

% of revenues -7.1% -7.1% -7.1% -7.1% -7.1%

Case 1 -6.1% -6.1% -6.1% -6.1% -6.1%

Case 2 -7.1% -7.1% -7.1% -7.1% -7.1%

Case 3 -8.1% -8.1% -8.1% -8.1% -8.1%

Interest expense (1.409.915) (1.402.865) (1.395.851) (1.388.872) (1.381.927)

y-o-y growth% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5%

Case 1 -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4%

Case 2 -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% -0.5%

1 2 3 4 5 6

Case 3 -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% -0.6%

Extraordinary income 1.037.588 1.040.181 1.042.782 1.045.389 1.048.002

% of revenues 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

Case 1 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Case 2 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

Case 3 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

Operating taxes (2.039.266) (1.751.729) (1.504.736) (1.292.568) (1.110.316)

% of EBIT -14.1% -14.1% -14.1% -14.1% -14.1%

Case 1 -18.6% -18.6% -18.6% -18.6% -18.6%

Case 2 -14.1% -14.1% -14.1% -14.1% -14.1%

Case 3 -9.6% -9.6% -9.6% -9.6% -9.6%

Other Cost After Tax (13.832) (13.666) (13.502) (13.340) (13.180)

% of EBT -1.2% -1.2% -1.2% -1.2% -1.2%

Case 1 -2.5% -2.5% -2.5% -2.5% -2.5%

Case 2 -1.2% -1.2% -1.2% -1.2% -1.2%

Case 3 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Table 5.- Amazon Revenue and Gross Margin Forecast

FY20 Forecast FY21 Forecast FY22 Forecast FY23 Forecast FY24 Forecast

Forecast Revenues 353.457.720 445.356.727 561.149.476 707.048.340 890.880.909

Forecast Gross Margin% 24.5% 24.5% 24.5% 24.5% 24.5%

950,000,000 850,000,000 750,000,000 650,000,000 550,000,000 450,000,000 350,000,000

FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24

■ Revenues Figure 2. Amazon Revenue Forecast

Section 2.4 Balance Sheet Analysis and Forecasting

Table 6.- Amazon Balance Sheet

$ in thousands 31Dec16 Actual 31Dec17 Actual 31Dec18 Actual 31Dec19 Actual

Net Receivables 8.339.000 13.164.000 16.677.000 20.816.000

Days receivable 22.1 26.6 25.8 26.7

PP&E 29.114.000 48.866.000 61.797.000 97.846.000

as a% of revenue 21.4% 27.5% 26.5% 34.9%

Inventory 11.461.000 16.047.000 17.174.000 20.497.000

Days Inventory 54.4 59.9 54.5 56.3

Other assets 8.507.000 22.247.000 25.750.000 31.068.000

as a% of revenue 6.3% 12.5% 11.1% 11.1%

Cash 25.981.000 30.986.000 41.250.000 55.021.000

as a% of revenue 19.1% 17.4% 17.7% 19.6%

Total Asset 83.402.000 131.310.000 162.648.000 225.248.000

Equity 19.285.000 27.709.000 43.549.000 62.060.000

14.2% 15.6% 18.7% 22.1%

Accounts Payable 25.309.000 34.616.000 38.192.000 47.183.000

120.2 129.1 121.2 129.6

Deferred revenues 4.768.000 5.097.000 6.536.000 8.190.000

3.5% 2.9% 2.8% 2.9%

Long Term Debt 7.694.000 24.743.000 23.495.000 23.414.000

5.7% 13.9% 10.1% 8.3%

Accrued liabilities 13.739.000 18.170.000 23.663.000 32.439.000

10.1% 10.2% 10.2% 11.6%

Deferred taxes liabilities 1.787.000 1.994.000 2.386.000 -

1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0%

Other long-term liabilities 10.820.000 18.981.000 24.827.000 51.962.000

8.0% 10.7% 10.7% 18.5%

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Total Liabilities & Equity 83.402.000 131.310.000 162.648.000 225.248.000

Table 7.- Amazon Balance Sheet Forecast

$ in thousands 31Dec20 Forecast 31Dec21 Forecast 31Dec22 Forecast 31Dec23 Forecast 31Dec24 Forecast

1 2 3 4 5 6

Net Receivables 26.228.160 33.047.482 41.639.827 52.466.182 66.107.389

Days receivable 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7

1 2 3 4 5 6

PP&E 104.727.934 131.957.197 166.266.068 209.495.245 263.964.009

as a% of revenue 29.6% 29.6% 29.6% 29.6% 29.6%

Inventory 41.750.052 52.605.065 66.282.382 83.515.802 105.229.910

Days Inventory 56.3 56.3 56.3 56.3 56.3

Other assets 36.136.994 45.532.612 57.371.091 72.287.575 91.082.344

as a% of revenue 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2%

Cash 65.259.541 82.227.022 103.606.047 130.543.620 164.484.961

as a% of revenue 18.5% 18.5% 18.5% 18.5% 18.5%

Total Asset 274.102.680 345.369.377 435.165.415 548.308.423 690.868.613

Equity 62.370.048 78.586.260 99.018.687 124.763.546 157.202.068

17.6% 17.6% 17.6% 17.6% 17.6%

Accounts Payable 96.106.391 121.094.052 152.578.506 192.248.918 242.233.636

129.6 129.6 129.6 129.6 129.6

Deferred revenues 14.033.543 17.682.264 22.279.653 28.072.363 35.371.177

3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Long Term Debt 33.582.101 42.313.447 53.314.944 67.176.829 84.642.805

9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5%

Accrued liabilities 37.151.276 46.810.608 58.981.366 74.316.521 93.638.817

10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5%

Deferred taxes liabilities 3.057.141 3.851.997 4.853.517 6.115.431 7.705.443

0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%

Other long-term liabilities 42.248.818 53.233.511 67.074.224 84.513.522 106.487.037

12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%

Total Liabilities & Equity 288.549.318 363.572.140 458.100.897 577.207.130 727.280.983

It is clearly shows that the forecast for Total Asset and Total Equity & Liability are not balanced.

Table 8.- Amazon Forecast Check

Forecast YR20 YR21 YR22 YR23 YR24

Total Asset 274.102.680 345.369.377 435.165.415 548.308.423 690.868.613

Total Liabilities & Equity 288.549.318 363.572.140 458.100.897 577.207.130 727.280.983

Difference (14.446.637) (18.202.763) (22.935.482) (28.898.707) (36.412.371)

ITotaI Asset ■ Total Liabilities & Equity Difference Figure 3. Amazon Forecast Check

It is interesting to discuss the below extreme hy- 1. Assume that the Total Asset and Total Liabili-

pothetical situation. ties forecasting are accurate, i.e., the Equity needs to

be adjusted. Then we would have

Table 9.- Amazon Equity Adjustment

Forecast YR2020 YR2021 YR2022 YR2023 YR2024

Equity 62.370.047.52 78.586.259.87 99.018.687.44 124.763.546.18 157.202.068.18

Difference (14.446.637.42) (18.202.763.14) (22.935.481.56) (28.898.706.77) (36.412.370.53)

Adjusted Equity 47.923.410 60.383.497 76.083.206 95.864.839 120.789.698

Adjust Rate -23.2% -23.2% -23.2% -23.2% -23.2%

This would show some conjecture to the bottom line for the Amazon equity buildup trend when assuming every other trend keeps the same. It means Amazon could decrease the Equity buildup than forecasted as -23.2%

Table 10.- Amazon

2. Assume that the Total Liabilities and Equity forecasting are accurate, i.e., the total Asset needs to be adjusted. Then we would have

Asset Adjustment

Forecast YR2020 YR2021 YR2022 YR2023 YR2024

Total Asset 274.102.680.2 345.369.377.0 435.165.415.0 548.308.422.9 690.868.612.9

Difference 14.446.637.42 18.202.763.14 22.935.481.56 28.898.706.77 36.412.370.53

Adjusted Asset 288.549.318 363.572.140 458.100.897 577.207.130 727.280.983

Adjust Rate 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3%

This would also show some conjecture to the top line for the Amazon Asset buildup trend when assuming every other trend keeps the same. It means

Amazon could increase more assets by adding more Net Receivables, PP&E, Inventory, Cash etc. than forecasted.

Section 2.5 Cash Flow Analysis and Forecasting

Cash flow is the money that is moving (flowing) in and out of your business in a month. Although it does seem sometimes that cash flow only goes one way - out of the business - it does flow both ways.

Cash is coming in from customers or clients who are buying your products or services. If customers

don't pay at the time of purchase, some of your cash flow is coming from collections of accounts receivable.

Cash is going out ofyour business in the form of payments for expenses, like rent or a mortgage, in monthly loan payments, and in payments for taxes and other accounts payable.

Amazon reported the below cash flow

Table 11.- Amazon Cash Flow

$ in thousands FY16 Actual FY17 Actual FY18 Actual FY19 Actual

Cash flows from operating activities 16.443.000 18.434.000 30.723.000 38.514.000

Cash flows from investing activities (9.876.000) (27.819.000) (12.369.000) (24.281.000)

Cash flows from financing activities (2.911.000) 9.860.000 (7.686.000) (10.066.000)

Cash flows summary 3.656.000 475.000 10.668.000 4.167.000

Net change in cash 3.444.000 1.188.000 10.317.000 4.237.000

Opening cash 15.890.000 19.334.000 21.856.000 32.173.000

Closing cash 19.334.000 20.522.000 32.173.000 36.410.000

y-o-y growth% 6.1% 56.8% 13.2%

We can see the year to year growth% varies dra- dium growth rate 13.2%, we would have the below matically from 6.1% to 56.8%. When we take the me- forecasting

Table 12.- Amazon Closing Cash Forecasting

Forecasting FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024

Closing Cash 41.204.989 46.631.450 52.772.545 59.722.387 67.587.484

If we compare the closing cash with the Cash Asset from balance sheet, we have

Table 13.- Amazon Closing Cash Analysis

Actual FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019

Closing cash 19.334.000 20.522.000 32.173.000 36.410.000

Closing Cash vs. Cash Asset 74.4% 66.2% 78.0% 66.2%

FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024

41.204.988.6551 46.631.449.8782 52.772.544.9932 59.722.387.1943 67.587.483.8450

63.1% 56.7% 50.9% 45.7% 41.1%

It is apparent that the forecasted rate of closing cash vs. cash asset is linearly decreasing.

Let us discuss the below extreme hypothetical situation. Assume that the rate of closing cash vs.

cash asset is NOT linearly decreasing. But the rate would take average rate of the year 2016 to 2019, and then we would have two possible scenarios to adjust.

80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0

Mlllllll

90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%

FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 ■ Closing cash ^ Closi ng Cash vs Cash Asset Figure 4. Amazon Closing Cash Analysis 1. Keep no change to the forecasting of cash asset, but adjust the closing cash flow, we would have.

Table 14. - Adjust the closing cash flow forecasting

Actual FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019

Closing cash 19.334.000 20.522.000 32.173.000 36.410.000

Closing Cash vs. Cash Asset 74.4% 66.2% 78.0% 66.2%

FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024

46,467,357.0480 58.548.869.8805 73.771.576.0495 92.952.185.8223 117.119.754.1361

71.2% 71.2% 71.2% 71.2% 71.2%

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It is clearly shown that the forecasted closing cash flow will increase dramatically assuming rate is constant and without altering the forecasted cash asset.

IC los i ng ca sh ™■ Clos i rig C as h vs Ca sh Asset

Figure 5. Adjust the closing cash flow forecasting

2. Keep the forecasting of closing cash, but adjust the cash asset, we would have

Table 15.- Adjust the cash asset forecasting

Actual FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019

Closing cash 19.334.000 20.522.000 32.173.000 36.410.000

Closing Cash vs. Cash Asset 74.4% 66.2% 78.0% 66.2%

Cash Asset 25.981.000 30.986.000 41.250.000 55.021.000.

FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024

41,204,989 46.631.450 52.772.545 59.722.387 67.587.484

71.2% 71.2% 71.2% 71.2% 71.2%

57,868,982 65.489.996 74.114.654 83.875.129 94.921.004

When we compare table 19 with Figure 20, it decrease dramatically assuming rate is constant and is clearly shown that the forecasted cash asset will without altering forecasted of closing cash.

I Cash Asset ~ Closing Cash vs Cash Asset Figure 6. Adjust the cash asset forecasting

When we compare table 19 with Figure 20, it is clearly shown that the forecasted cash asset will decrease dramatically assuming rate is constant and without altering forecasted of closing cash.

Chapter 3. Conclusion

Amazon.com entered its linear growth period in revenue and gross margin. Based on its historical data of P&L, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow, future 5 years of its financial numbers from the year 2020 to the year 2024 can be forecasted.

If the forecasting of our financial models is right, we will see Amazon's equity will continue to grow linearly. Then its corresponding share price will continue to grow linearly.

However, the forecasting cannot generate balanced Assets and Equity, when assuming the company's liability can be predicted, without any adjustment.

The unbalanced forecasting means financial conditions would not keep the same as before. The conditions should have a chance to keep a balanced business model.

There are many situations we can adjust the forecasted balance sheet depends on different conditions or scenarios. We have discussed several interesting scenarios that the adjustment can be done. Each adjustment can be dramatically changed the forecasting of Amazon's assets and equities.

If some conditions were changed negatively, Am- We will take a close look to watch for any signs of azon's equity could be dramatically away from the changes in conditions. forecasting of many financial analysts.

References:

1. URL: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/121514/what-difference-between-pl-statement-and-balance-sheet.asp

2. Amazon.com. Inc. (AMZN) at yahoo finance URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/ financials?p=AMZN

3. URL: https://www.businessballs.com/strategy-innovation/five-forces-model--michael-porter

4. URL: https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2018/10/business/amazon-history-timeline/index.html

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