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UDC 327
ALTERATION INFLUENCE OF INTERNATIONAL CONJUNCTURE TO SITUATION IN THE CAUCASIAN REGION
E. Gorushina
Institute of socio-economic and humanities research of Southern scientific center RAS
Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation science-almanac@mail. ru
The notion "political risk" in foreign political analytics was introduced in the quality of country risk component with the aim to explain a row of failure reasons of this or that country, not connecting directly with financial and economic factors. In the last decade, research of political risks is especially actual. However, because of corresponding researches interdisciplinary character, there is no proper attention to political risk in academic political science, that is why "political risk" is frequently determined as "political instability".
Political leaders on data aggregation exist with a goal to form indexes (as a rule, quantitative) of political risks. Particularly, "Marsh", who in its turn rests on research data of the company "BMIResearch" - the leading expert in the sphere of political analysis and credit risks. Political risks interactive map was prepared in the result of team-work in 2016. According to this research, terrorism and political violence, armed conflicts, powerful political actions, oriented to destruction of existing political systems, and also permanently low prices on commodities are considered to be the most significant political risks.
"Marsh" experts from all the governments of Black sea region especially emphasize Ukraine, Moldavia and Armenia as countries with the highest index of political risk - 43,10 (in the short-run), and 39,60 (in in the longer term), 51,30 (in the short-run) and 51,10 (in in the longer term), 54,40 (in the short-run) h 59,60 (in the longer term) accordingly. At that stably medium ("orange") indexes of political risks are preserved at all the other region governments. This shows that "Marsh" experts predict violence escalation in Nagorny Karabakh in connection with Azerbaid-jan threats. Nevertheless, close connection of Armenia with Russia acts as constraining factor, particularly expressing in Russian military presence on the territory of Armenia that restricts Azerbaidjan actions.
Also there are the following political risks, specific for Black sea region countries:
- Georgia Euro-Atlantic intensions, situated at the height of their development,
- natives of the North and South Caucasus republics join the rows of prohibited in Russia terroristic organization "ISIL",
- macroeconomic stability of countries in the region is under the pressure - currencies of region's countries are significantly devaluated in the height of the fast currency transfers fall from abroad and stagnation in investment sector,
- social and internal political problems (mass protests and constitutional reform in Armenia, activation of opposi-tional "United national movement" in Georgia under the conditions of complex economic situation and non-systemic Islamic opposition in Azerbaidjan),
- unstable positions of the present government in Moldova, rent by competition for the power,
- conflict in the South-East of Ukraine, which complicated relations with neighboring Russia for many years, under continuing poor perspectives of the country economy,
- uncertainty around possible dialogues development trends with regional powers - Turkey and Iran.
The work is accomplished within the frames of State task realization on 2016 No 007-01114-16 SR, project "Geopolitical transformations in Caspian-Black region: instruments on instability maintenance" according to the program of fundamental researches of RAS № I.13 presidium.
Key words: risk, political risk, country risk, the country's Black Sea region, geopolitics, region.
The unique geopolitical situation of the Caucasian region established attention from the side of out regional actors. If before the USSR disintegration the given region performed a function of a link with outside world through Iran and Black sea, also as a defensive shield from global capitalism, then after USSR disintegration the region acquired more attention. Considering modern geopolitical realias (including legal questions of Caspian Sea), the role of Caucasian region grows out of only transportation corridor for energy resources from Caspian Sea and Centro-Asiatic states. Caucasian region connects North and South, West and East, appearing to be a conjunction of two great civilizations Islam and Christianity, providing access to varied region by Central Asia (Turkey and Turkic-speaking states of Central Asia).
Possessing by wide spectrum of geopolitical and geoeconomic advantages, Caucasian region became one of the most significant research objects. Many foreign researchers study questions of political instability in the Caucasus and functions of this region, and also influence of international and outregional actors: T.de Waal (2010), M. Jalali (1993), M.Mesbai (1993), M. Dzhelikbala (2010), I.D. Zvyagelskaya and others. A row of researchers pays a special attention to the aspects of terroristic activity in the Caucasus region: E. Burger (2013), Kraimer (2005) and others. Last 20 years violent incidents regularly take place in various places of the North Caucasus. Certain localization occurred in 2000 - thus, nowadays for majority of Russian population terrorism is strongly connected with events of this region. Terroristic actions have a cyclical pattern, escalation in 2013 begins in 2007, by 2010 some republics became a range for active arm actions (the same situation was observed in 2000-2005) [4]. Criminal-terroristic actions, realizing by groups on the vast territory of the North Caucasus, achieves "presence effect everywhere". These actions have character of thoroughly planed localized strikes, bringing biggest harm for federal forces subdivisions and law enforcement agencies under minimum charges of the bandgroups.
Considering the difficult situation, counterterrorism operations, aimed to neutralization bandgroups participants, are actively realized in republics. Military aviation and artillery were applied under the fight with bandunderground (2011-2012); conjoint operations on gunmen liquidation were successfully realized in border districts. This gave tangible results, but such forceful instrument did not lead to definitive stabilization in the region. According to violent incidents statistics in the populated localities of the North Caucasus republics for 2014-February 2016, the general quantity comprised 312 actions. However there are - 168 cases in Dagestan, 54 - in Chechnya, 54 -in Ingooshetia, 28 - in Kabardino-Balkaria, 11 violent incident cases - in North Ossetia-Alania [9]. Basing on the mentioned indices, it is become clear that Dagestan dominates in the number of criminal - terroristic actions. Mainly in this polyethnic republic of Russian Federation significant influence of "Islamic government" is recorded: since 2014 massive outcome of gunmen in IG is marked. In June 2015 many gunmen of Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingooshetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachai-Circassian Republic swore in fealty to IG leader Al-Baghdadi [3].
However serious geopolitical steps - including Crimea in Russian Federation structure in 2014, participation of Russia in war actions on the territory of Syria from 30 of September 2015, diplomatic confrontation and geoeconomic competition of Russia and Turkey - led to the fact that the majority of governments and international actors maintained Ukraine, in the question considering Syria - took up position, differing with official position of Moscow, and situation around Turkey and Russia more reminds section of economic influence area. "Export" of the gunmen to IG is a dangerous tendency in connection with active role of Russia in Syria - Russia stands on the third place among all governments, "delivering" to the given terroristic organization. More than 2,9 thousand of Russians suspected of belonging to international terroristic organizations activity in Syria and Iraq were identified. The majority of gunmen are natives of Chechnya and Dagestan, citizens of Azerbaijan and Georgia are on the second place according to the numerical strength, after North Caucasian republics.
It should be mentioned that gunmen of IG from the countries of former CIS, after coming home, will gravely influence on infirm situation in Russian Caucasus and in Centralasian republics. The more Russia involves into Syrian conflict, the more severe border management becomes, and the oftener preventive arrests are conducted; more than 800 cases were started in relation to its citizens, returning from the Middle East and suspected them of fighting on the side of armed groups in Syria and Iraq. Transition of natives from the North Caucasus, fighting in Syria, under the banner IG in 2015, and public swears of Al-Baghdadi were on hand for Grozny - serious outflow of gunmen abroad (to the Middle East), and also emerging role of security agencies in fight with terrorist underworld. However among entering the rows of IG there are also ethnical Russians, who accepted Islam, following radical sermons (case with V.Dorofeev, and also with V. Karaulova). More than evidently that there dialogue forming on religious ground between the North Caucasian republics and Russia federal centre should be conducted for the purpose of not spreading radical ideology in the country.
It is also significant that alterations of international conjuncture temporary displaced the focus from the events on Caucasus and distracted population attention from real problems of the North Caucasus. The North Caucasian republics differently react to economic and political instability of recent years, degrade state and social institutions. According to official statistics data of the first quarter of 2015, the population living standard of the North Caucasian republics was significantly decreased. Jobless rate in NCFD achieves 11,2%. 507 thousand of people are unemployed from 4 mln. 481 thousand of economically active district population. Also the basic tendencies of the last time are population earnings decline in budget sector, growth of shadow economy in the region (according to different estimations, more 80%) - according to FSSS for the period of February-April 2015, it was not higher than 50%. Besides internal economic problems of the North Caucasus there also religious disagreements take place. In the beginning of February 2016 R. Kadyrov encouraged Ingooshetia mufti Isa Khamkhoev in the conflict with the head of the republic Yu.B.Yevkurov. And this political opposition was transfered to the religious conflict plane, in the course of which the president of Ingooshetia appeared as a supporter of Salafists, or, as it is customary to speak, adherers of "non-conventional Islam". This fact only demonstrates absence of competently built dialogue of religious character.
South Dagestan is one of the territories of RF, where confessional contradictions between Sunni and Shi'ite are felt. It is important to mention that suppression of Salafists communities in the North and central districts of Dagestan concentrated its radically affected members in the South of the republic. That is why it is justly to confirm that the interest conflict among Shi'ite ("Hezbollah", Shi'ite elites of Iraq and Iran) and Sunni ("Islamic front", "Modzhakhed army", "Jaish al-Fatkh" and other groups, flowing from one structure of opposition forces in Syria) players can only increase confessional friction on the North Caucasus. Thus, Caucasian region experiences fundamental influence of torrentially changing international conjuncture. At that external influence can be significantly complicated by presence of unsettled internal questions. Actual configuration in the line Russia-Turkey-Iran can acts as additional factor of possible instability in the region, considering complex reaction of other actors to such "Triple Alliance".
The article is prepared within work on state task of FASO Russia on realization of fundamental scientific researches on the topic "Conflictologicalpredictions and scenarios of the South of Russia" (No 0260-2014-0005).
References
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Литература
1. База данных ГИС «Терроризм на Юге России». Свидетельство об официальной регистрации программы «Терроризм на Юге России (программа учета акций террористической направленности)» для ЭВМ №2012612626 от 13.03.2012, созданной под руководством Г.Г.Матишова в Южном научном центре РАН.
2. Звягельская И.Д. Факторы нестабильности на постсоветском пространстве (Центральная Азия и Кавказ) // Энергетические измерения международных отношений и безопасности в Восточной Азии / Отв. ред. Воскресенский А. М., 2007.
3. ИГИЛ угрожает России: чего ждать от террористов, которые вернутся на Кавказ // Российский институт стратегических исследований. URL: http://riss.ru/smi/22807/ (дата обращения: 09.08.2016).
4. Матишов Г.Г., Пащенко И.В. Атлас социально-политических проблем, угроз и рисков Юга России. Т. VI: Южнороссийский макрорегион и Олимпиада в Сочи. Специальный выпуск / отв. ред. акад. Г.Г. Матишов. Ростов н/Д, 2013.
5. Burger Ethan S., Cheloukhine S. Counterterrorism in Areas of Political Unrest: The Case of Russia's Northern Caucasus. (Springer Briefs in Criminology). New York, 2013.
6. Qelikpala M. Security in the Black Sea region // Commission on the Black Sea Policy Report. V.2. 2010.
7. Jalali M.R. The Caucasus and Central Asia: Entering the scene and composition of geo-strategic space // Caucasus and Central Asian Studies Journal (6). 1993.
8. Kramer M. Guerrilla warfare, counterinsurgency and terrorism in the North Caucasus: the military dimension of the Russian-Chechen conflict // Europe-Asia Studies. 57:2. 2005.
9. Mesbahi M. Russian foreign policy and security in Central Asia and the Caucasus // Central Asian Survey. 12:2. 1993.
10. Waal de T. The Caucasus: An Introduction. Oxford, 2010.
September, 16, 2016
