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0ALLOCATION DECISION PROBLEMS RISK BETWEEN ENTERPRISES WITHIN THEIR ECONOMIC RELATIONS
Usmonov P.Sh.
independent applicant of SamIES Yahyoyev Bahriddinxon
student of SamSIES
Abstract: The work is devoted to the issues of making financial decisions on the distribution of risk between enterprises within the framework of their economic relations. It is noted how to calculate risks in advance and make predictive risk decisions in order to protect your own income (profit). Therefore, the work provides logical approaches and techniques, methodological rules for finding the truth. Recommendatory heuristic rules and techniques are given in order to remove doubts when making negative decisions.
Key words: optimization, economic relations, reduction in efficiency, enterprise resources, risk management, insight, intuition, fixing a decision, risk management, control.
Risk sharing is used to optimize the negative consequences of risks. The following areas can be identified and used as the main forms in the context of financial risk management: diversification of activities, diversification of the loan portfolio, diversification of areas for investing resources, etc.
The distribution of risks can be based on their partial transfer to the enterprise's partners in business relations, especially in that part for which they have the opportunity to implement a more effective risk optimization mechanism. However, this type of neutralization of the consequences of uncertainty goes beyond risk control at the enterprise level and largely depends on the results of negotiations with partners, which is a disadvantage of this method and takes it beyond the scope of this article.
The mechanism for self-protection against risk should be based on reservation in order to optimally regulate part of the financial resources, which also makes it possible to overcome the negative consequences of those operations that involve significant risk. Its obvious disadvantage is the need to divert the enterprise's resources and, as a result, reduce the efficiency of using the enterprise's own capital, as well as the possibility of increasing its dependence on external sources of financing to replace reserved funds. Risk management represents a system for regulating risk and financial relations arising in the process of risk management.
A manager's intuition and insight play a special role in solving risky problems. Intuition is the ability to directly, as if suddenly, without logical thinking, find the correct solution to a problem. Intuition is an essential component of the creative process. Insight is awareness of the solution to a specific problem. At the moment of insight, the decision is clearly understood, but this clarity is often short-lived. Therefore, conscious fixation of the decision is necessary [2, p. 15].
In cases where the risk cannot be calculated, risky decisions are made using heuristics, which is a set of logical techniques and methodological rules for theoretical research and finding the truth. In other words, these are ways to solve particularly complex problems. In this case, heuristic rules and techniques must be taken into account (see: Fig. 1).
you cannot take more risks than your own capital can allow
Making risky decisions using heuristics
you should always think about the consequences of risk
a positive decision is made only in the absence of doubt
You can't risk a lot for a little |
When in doubt, negative decisions are always made
You cannot think that there is always only one solution, it is possible that there are other options
Fig. 1. Heuristic rules and techniques for making risky decisions
As follows from Fig. 1, When making decisions, it is necessary to have a risk management policy in accordance with the following steps:
The first step is to develop a risk management strategy. How can we manage risk without knowing what we want to achieve with this management? The well-known principle of no free lunch illustrates this perfectly: the greater the income, the greater the risk associated with obtaining this income. It is necessary to clearly formulate the "risk appetite" and build a risk management policy based on this.
At the second stage, it is necessary to identify the risks inherent in a given organization and develop approaches for their quantitative assessment: what methods should be used, what data calculations will be based on, etc.
At the third stage, you need to pay attention to the choice of software for calculations. For some calculations, standard packages such as Excel are sufficient. For more complex tasks, specialized risk assessment packages are required.
At the fourth stage, it is necessary to develop a risk management procedure. Risk management, which is often mistaken for "core science," is just one step in the process described, even if it is one of the most important.
At the fifth stage, it is necessary to develop internal control procedures for each type of risk. This includes both assessing the effectiveness of risk management and monitoring compliance with procedures at various stages, for example checking compliance with established limits or monitoring risk sensitivity.
After this, it will be possible to develop reporting forms for this type of risk: to whom, what and when is provided. It is also necessary to understand by whom and what management decisions should be made based on the information received.
In addition, it will be necessary to determine who in the organization deals with this risk: who assesses the risk, who prepares the reports, who sets the limits, who controls them, etc. Here, the main role should be played by a clear delineation of responsibilities, as well as a division of responsibilities. For example, employees calculating limits should not report to the same head of the organization as employees entering into transactions, because the remuneration of this manager depends on the income received from transactions, and limits limit transactions and, therefore, the amount of income [2, p. 19].
Of course, the implementation of this process is a complex task, but the quality of the entire enterprise management system largely depends on its solution, because obtaining any income (profit) is associated with certain risks. Having passed this path, the enterprise can provide itself with the conditions for building an effective management system.
So, among the considered financial mechanisms of the financial risk management policy, it is necessary to highlight the most effective ones in relation to the enterprise, taking into account the specifics of its business conditions: limiting and diversifying financial risks. The effectiveness of the applied risk optimization mechanisms should be assessed on the basis of a comparison of the actual or predicted risk situation of the enterprise.
List of used literature
1. Dubova S.E. Analysis of risk factors in the risk management system. // Karzhi-Karazhat, No. 1, 2008, p. 12-19.
2. Ermasova N.B. Risk management of the organization. - M.: Alfa-Press, 2005. - 239 p.
